tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24556429222774112582024-03-05T18:39:36.251-08:00PaapflyInsightful baseball analysis for the casual crowd, Moneyball masses and you, the Third and King crewUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger234125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2455642922277411258.post-41835678644289767152012-04-15T21:02:00.001-07:002012-04-15T21:03:57.351-07:00Willie Mays Coverage on Baseball Past & Present's All-Time Dream ProjectRory Paap contributed to the piece found here:<a href="http://baseballpastandpresent.com/2012/04/15/bpp-all-time-dream-project/">http://baseballpastandpresent.com/2012/04/15/bpp-all-time-dream-project/</a><br />
<br />
Excerpt below.<br />
<br />
"<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-weight: 300; line-height: 24px;"><strong style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: bold; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: initial; outline-width: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">CF – Willie Mays, by Rory Paap of </strong></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-weight: 300; line-height: 24px;"><strong style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: bold; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: initial; outline-width: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="http://www.baycityball.com/" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: initial; outline-width: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">Bay City Ball</a></strong></span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 24px;"></span><br />
<div style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin-bottom: 1.625em; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: initial; outline-width: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 24px;">It might be quicker to say what the “Say Hey Kid” doesn’t bring to a lineup than what he does, but that wouldn’t be much fun. In a sentence that, by itself, won’t come close to doing him justice: he was the greatest defensive center fielder that ever lived and quite possibly the best right-handed batter to pick up a stick. That says nothing of his base running or the grace with which he did everything.</span></div><div style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin-bottom: 1.625em; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: initial; outline-width: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 24px;">He patrolled the cavernous center fields of the Polo Grounds of Gotham and frigid Candlestick of San Francisco like a skater on ice – with unparalleled skill and a strong & accurate arm (as evidenced by 195 career outfield assists), so brilliantly displayed in “The Catch” from the ’54 Series. They introduced the Rawlings Gold Glove in 1957, an honor – much like the All-Star game – that was fashioned for Mays. He won it that first year and each of the next 11.</span></div><div style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin-bottom: 1.625em; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: initial; outline-width: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 24px;">From the year of his first Most Valuable Player award in 1954 to ‘65 (when he won his second and last MVP), he accumulated between 113 and 119 WAR according to Baseball-Reference and Fangraphs, an average of nearly 10 wins when eight is considered MVP quality. A typical season during that 12-year span for Mays included 40 home runs, 22 thefts, 118 runs, 109 runs batted in and a slash line of .318/.392/.605, all while he dazzled with some of the most brilliant outfield play the world has ever seen.</span></div><div style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin-bottom: 1.625em; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: initial; outline-width: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 24px;">Willie also had a flair about him, something special. His first hit in the big leagues was a clout off of none other than Warren Spahn. And as brilliant as Cobb, Speaker and, especially Mantle, were, it wouldn’t be a ball team without Willie out in center and hitting in the middle of the lineup."</span></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2455642922277411258.post-79391703545026339312011-07-30T02:44:00.000-07:002011-07-30T02:44:44.383-07:00Letters to Sabean and BochyI wrote a piece at Bay City Ball entitled <a href="http://www.baycityball.com/2011/07/28/letters-to-brian-sabean-and-bruce-bochy/">Letters to Brian Sabean and Bruce Bochy</a>. Go read it and laugh, or cry, or get angry, or do whatever it is you're gonna do. Excerpt;<br />
<br />
<blockquote>24 July 2011<br />
<br />
Dear Bruce and Brian,<br />
<br />
I watched the game today. It was really awesome that you let Brandon Belt play again. Not only because he did really good by getting two hits and getting on base three times, but because he is my favorite player.<br />
<br />
I must say, though, I was a little surprised he was playing outfield. It doesn’t seem like his natural position. Plus, I remember everyone saying that he was such a superb first baseman, and even J.T. Snow, who was like Keith Hernandez at first without the cocaine and the mustache, said he was excellent.<br />
<br />
And also, Aubrey Huff, the guy that I really like but don’t want to play so much, he hasn’t looked so hot lately. But I guess maybe a few outfielders were banged up. Ya, that’s it.<br />
<br />
But I guess you can’t argue with results! A win! Keep up the good work.<br />
<br />
Sincerely,<br />
<br />
The Biggest Giants Fan</blockquote>Paapflyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10706602869109231246noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2455642922277411258.post-83436690108921664102011-05-24T22:03:00.000-07:002011-05-24T22:07:56.948-07:00Bay City Ball and the SweetSpot<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEicbzAaMRjgDYnJZkvC2ozGGUBfb2nZ8-hQvY6v-GoZMMu6thkh7h4RFbz4VlvbadPxhmccc-HzYToAeBuAI76l8tVcvLdA41xKiKReIaN1UtDLtdzR7xYtOCJMHTQ1KI03hH-hBcaloX9H/s1600/Bay+City+Ball.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="73" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEicbzAaMRjgDYnJZkvC2ozGGUBfb2nZ8-hQvY6v-GoZMMu6thkh7h4RFbz4VlvbadPxhmccc-HzYToAeBuAI76l8tVcvLdA41xKiKReIaN1UtDLtdzR7xYtOCJMHTQ1KI03hH-hBcaloX9H/s320/Bay+City+Ball.gif" width="320" /></a></div><div style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.baycityball.com/"><b>www.BayCityBall.com</b></a></div><div style="text-align: center;"><br />
</div>If you have not figured it out yet, the best way to read what Paapfly is writing about the San Francisco Giants is to head to <a href="http://www.baycityball.com/"><b>Bay City Ball</b></a>, the Giants blog for ESPN's <a href="http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: blue;"><b>SweetSpot Network</b></span></a>. You'll also read good writing from both the blog's proprietor, Chris Quick, and Otis Anderson. The SweetSpot is now manned by David Schoenfield (and others) after Rob Neyer's departure to SB's Baseball Nation.Paapflyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10706602869109231246noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2455642922277411258.post-75788386808430634562011-04-23T09:49:00.000-07:002011-04-23T09:49:36.343-07:00Pablo Sandoval's hot startPablo Sandoval is mashing this April, and <a href="http://www.baycityball.com/2011/04/22/8209/">he's not yet 25</a>: <br />
<br />
<blockquote>Overall, he’s hitting .328 with a .400 OBP and slugging .603. That’s good for a .423 wOBA. And, unlike last April, he doesn’t have an outrageous BABiP. Which isn’t to say it’s not well above average, it is at .341. But when you consider it was .382 last April and certainly not sustainable, and that his career BABiP is .325, his .341 mark so far this season seems more reasonable and less of a red flag.<br />
<br />
What’s also interesting to me, though, is that he’s striking out roughly twice as often. His 20.7 strikeout rate is roughly double what he’s done in his career. But just maybe, that’s a good thing. Why, you might ask? Because he’s seeing more pitches so far. In 2008 when he came up, he saw 3.10 pitches per plate appearance, which is wholly awful. With a mark 3.44 in 2009 he improved it quite a bit, but it was still basically terrible. And he duplicated that with a 3.43 mark last season. But thus far in 2011 it’s been 3.80, and that’s sort of something to behold with the Panda. Anything approaching four pitchers per at bat seems like miraculous progress.</blockquote>Paapflyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10706602869109231246noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2455642922277411258.post-55298817314919038562011-04-17T22:06:00.000-07:002011-04-17T22:06:41.881-07:00Tim Lincecum's evolving repertoireIn case you haven't stumbled upon it yet -- it was linked by Rob Neyer on Friday and I also introduced it at Bay City Ball last Tuesday -- I wrote about Tim Lincecum's <a href="http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/a-warning-to-right-handed-hitters-cy-young-hopefuls/">awesome slider and improved fastball </a> at the Hardball Times: <br />
<br />
<blockquote>At the end of the 2010 season, Cain taught Lincecum a new slider grip, his slider grip—it’s been a pretty excellent pitch for Cain in his career. He began using it on Sept. 12, and the results were awesome. Since he began throwing that pitch, including the playoffs and his first two 2011 starts, he’s thrown 78 innings with a strikeout rate of 10.73, a walk rate of 2.19 (K/BB ratio of 4.90) and a 1.85 ERA. He’s simply been better than ever, and half of those starts came against playoff teams in the NLDS, NLCS and World Series.<br />
</blockquote><br />
Go check it out.Paapflyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10706602869109231246noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2455642922277411258.post-85006199487900956802011-04-07T10:14:00.000-07:002011-04-07T10:14:29.344-07:00Giants' bullpen: Shutdowns & MeltdownsI wrote about a couple of stats -- shutdowns and meltdowns -- I learned of on FanGraphs yesterday, thanks to Steve Slowinski, over at Bay City Ball. I wasn't shocked to learn which Giants' relievers had the <a href="http://www.baycityball.com/2011/04/07/romo-shuts-it-down/">best shutdown to meltdown ratios</a>. Here's an excerpt: <br />
<br />
<blockquote>I’ve also recently heard such ridiculous statements as: “I just don’t trust Romo, he’s always giving up big hits.” Well, he may not be Wilson, but he’s more trustworthy than Affeldt, Lopez, etc. Things like giving up game-wining home runs to Manny Ramirez tend to stick out in fans’ minds, while the countless number of times he whiffed batter after batter with his patented Frisbee slider do not. Biases develop throughout a long season and throughout several seasons while fans follow a team. The most significant moments often cloud the judgement of the observer. Be mindful of this – Aaron Rowand is not the worst player of all time, Barry Zito‘s not the worst starter. And no, Jack Morris is not a Hall of Famer despite his heroic, 10-inning shutout in game seven of the 1991 World Series; these biases go both ways.</blockquote><br />
Read it all at <a href="http://www.baycityball.com">Bay City Ball</a>, and don't miss Chris' Brandon Belt graph or Otis' thoughts on last night's hams, either.Paapflyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10706602869109231246noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2455642922277411258.post-3582383854914766762011-04-06T09:05:00.000-07:002011-04-06T09:05:28.483-07:00Losing to the PadresWhy <a href="http://www.baycityball.com/2011/04/06/8057/">I'd rather have a hole in my head</a> than watch the Giants lose to the Padres again. Plus:<br />
<br />
<blockquote>Other things that are better than watching the Giants lose to the Padres:<br />
<br />
1) Listening to every Nickelback song ever recorded in a single sitting<br />
2) Watching From Justin to Kelly<br />
3) Watching my fiancé file her nails – which just so happens to be my nails-on-a-chalkboard poison<br />
4) Watching Yuniesky Betancourt play baseball<br />
5) Listening to Joe Morgan disparage sabermetrics<br />
6) Reading every word Murray Chass has ever written…<br />
<br />
700,062) Instead of muting the television and watching the playoffs: closing your eyes and just listening to Tim McCarver and Joe Buck</blockquote><br />
The entire piece is at <a href="http://www.baycityball.com/2011/04/06/8057/">Bay City Ball</a>.Paapflyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10706602869109231246noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2455642922277411258.post-89649624597563004952011-04-04T09:46:00.000-07:002011-04-04T09:46:34.741-07:00Giants' (and Huff's) weekendFor those of you that missed the Giants game last night, here's Aubrey Huff's outfield contribution -- and the Giants' entire weekend, really -- in a nutshell. I promise it'll bring you more enjoyment than watching the actual game:<br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.gifbin.com/983596"><img src="http://www.gifbin.com/bin/102009/1256735227_high_jump_fail.gif" alt="funny gifs" /></a>Paapflyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10706602869109231246noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2455642922277411258.post-86744367082621233432011-04-04T09:22:00.000-07:002011-04-04T09:22:08.209-07:00Giants hand three of four to BumsIn the Giants' defense... wait, this is starting to sound like an oxymoron. What an ugly, ugly, weekend. Here's what I wrote <a href="http://www.baycityball.com/2011/04/04/ugly-game-ends-ugly-weekend-for-giants/">at Bay City Ball</a>, touching on Zito's slowball, Tejada, the bullpen and Huff's... whatever you want call what he was doing in right field: <br />
<br />
<blockquote>The Giants gave the Dodgers a drubbing on Saturday afternoon, beating them 10-0 behind a what-we’ve-come-to-expect start by Matt Cain. It was a six-inning, four-leaf-clover charmed effort with only three strikeouts. <b>Three strikeouts!</b> What a fraud. Fortunately, his luck will run out in another 1,000 innings or so. Other than that, they looked (and smelled) like hot garbage on Thursday, Friday and Sunday while more or less handing three of four to the archrival Dodgers...<br />
</blockquote><blockquote>It’s too early to be too concerned about this. It really is. For one, Huff didn’t get nearly enough reps in the outfield in spring training. When Cody Ross went down with a calf injury late in the exhibition schedule, the Giants’ brass were forced to more seriously consider Belt as an option to make the club. Prior to that, the Giants were not seriously considering the possibility that Huff would have to play right field. Not so soon, anyway. Still, though, San Francisco owes Huff $22 million over the next two seasons and he’s currently a man without a position. If Belt continues to produce – we have reason to believe he might, given the quality of his at bats so far – Huff’s not going back to first. And at his age, he’s not going to get any better as a water buffalo grazing in the outfield grass.</blockquote><br />
Read the whole enchilada <a href="http://www.baycityball.com/2011/04/04/ugly-game-ends-ugly-weekend-for-giants/">here</a>.Paapflyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10706602869109231246noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2455642922277411258.post-41643289038300969052011-04-02T12:27:00.000-07:002011-04-02T12:27:32.493-07:00Analysis of Freddy Sanchez extensionYesterday, the Giants extended Freddy Sanchez <a href="http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/blogs/giants/detail?entry_id=86182">for another year (2012)</a> for another $6 million. After the jump, I'll peel off a few-hundred words on how I feel about the deal. <br />
<br />
----<br />
<br />
Actually, me and the fiancé are about to go check out <i><a href="http://m.imdb.com/title/tt1606392/">Win Win</a></i>; it looks good, and I really enjoy Paul Giamatti. I really do. Plus, I have a quicker way to <a href="http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apathy">break this deal down</a>. That's what I call a win win.Paapflyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10706602869109231246noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2455642922277411258.post-90121705481554600372011-04-01T09:40:00.000-07:002011-04-01T09:40:46.991-07:00Lincecum's Opening Day velocity<strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/linceti01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Tim Lincecum</a></strong> didn't have either his best changeup or best slider last night, but he got by, despite the defense behind him playing terrible.<br />
<br />
His line was seven innings, five hits, three walks, five strikeouts and one unearned run. He took the loss. It was understandable, though, as <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kershcl01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Clayton Kershaw</a></strong> wasn't just better, he was brilliant. With the shadows and glare masking his pitches in the early going, it was no wonder he was sending the Giants' hitters back to the dugout shaking their heads. He outpitched the Giants' ace.<br />
<br />
But if there was one thing specifically that was encouraging -- aside from <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker&id=belt--001bra" target="_blank">Brandon Belt</a></strong>'s impressive debut -- it was that Lincecum's velocity was both quality and steady. According to the PITCHf/x tool from <a href="http://www.brooksbaseball.net/forum.php">Brooks Baseball</a>, Tim threw 57 fastballs (40 four-seam, 17 two-seam). His four-seam heater averaged 93 mph and he topped out at 95. His two-seam fastball averaged just over 93 mph and topped out at 94.7. More impressive than that, it hardly waned even into the seventh inning:<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiOO_3mFmhDrP3Yx3aftzmIQdGeVCYlHZAYFCMInRp3UoCzYHtX-VPz1nceklQqCOFdbkP4MX32F8XPrVRGZ76yXEJWvJOh-wEomWvFt0kz88F86HdpILSybXyK8vsk-y5H9k6m6nTSIbxQ/s1600/Lincecum+veloc.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="425" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiOO_3mFmhDrP3Yx3aftzmIQdGeVCYlHZAYFCMInRp3UoCzYHtX-VPz1nceklQqCOFdbkP4MX32F8XPrVRGZ76yXEJWvJOh-wEomWvFt0kz88F86HdpILSybXyK8vsk-y5H9k6m6nTSIbxQ/s640/Lincecum+veloc.gif" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Pulled from <a href="http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/pfx.php?month=3&day=31&year=2011&game=gid_2011_03_31_sfnmlb_lanmlb_1%2F&pitchSel=453311&prevGame=gid_2011_03_31_sfnmlb_lanmlb_1%2F&prevDate=331">here</a>.</td></tr>
</tbody></table><br />
Compare that to his velocity on Opening Day 2010:<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJqdp7JMG6OJ-Q9yFVtSSKTaehNHS0zswrEvhhPmDekIaUeJPEYsijdSxGmDz6Ux_gOxR08QPsL84OjWJvPuH_QcWV9ni77_Zpd5NyVaCWQaR4stqoHLdgYBtzIAroocGTX53eVR7hyphenhyphenlRq/s1600/Lincecum+4-5-10.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="426" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJqdp7JMG6OJ-Q9yFVtSSKTaehNHS0zswrEvhhPmDekIaUeJPEYsijdSxGmDz6Ux_gOxR08QPsL84OjWJvPuH_QcWV9ni77_Zpd5NyVaCWQaR4stqoHLdgYBtzIAroocGTX53eVR7hyphenhyphenlRq/s640/Lincecum+4-5-10.gif" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Pulled from <a href="http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/pfx.php?month=4&day=5&year=2010&game=gid_2010_04_05_sfnmlb_houmlb_1%2F&pitchSel=453311&prevGame=gid_2010_04_05_sfnmlb_houmlb_1%2F&prevDate=45">here</a>.</td></tr>
</tbody></table><br />
From the very first start of 2010, he showed an inability to maintain velocity throughout the game. Lincecum will probably never be a high-90s power arm again. But hopefully, with an apparent commitment to conditioning, Lincecum will be able to maintain above-average fastball speed with his devastating changeup and the nasty slider he rolled out in September and rode to a World Championship in October and November.<br />
----<br />
<br />
I wrote about Santiago Casilla yesterday <a href="http://www.baycityball.com/2011/03/31/santiago-casilla%E2%80%99s-velocity-giants%E2%80%99-%E2%80%98pen/">at Bay City Ball</a>. My thoughts on his spring (and day) were far less encouraging.Paapflyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10706602869109231246noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2455642922277411258.post-12667479100031628562011-03-31T12:48:00.000-07:002011-03-31T12:48:16.640-07:00Fear the BeardA <a href="http://bit.ly/BWilTISC">glimpse</a> at getting in the box against Brian Wilson, sort of.Paapflyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10706602869109231246noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2455642922277411258.post-63786553968857336942011-03-31T10:45:00.000-07:002011-03-31T10:45:21.457-07:00Opening Day Preview: Blind OptimismIf you look hard enough, <a href="http://www.baycityball.com/2011/03/31/bcb’s-opening-day-preview-blind-optimism/">you'll find me</a>:<br />
<br />
<blockquote>What better day is there, other than Opening Day, to have what can only be described as blind optimism? Easy. It’s Opening Day… after winning the World Series for the first time in 53 San Francisco seasons. I know, I know, you’re tickled. Me too.<br />
<br />
Yesterday, I concluded that Brandon Belt would make his major league debut tonight at Chavez Ravine against Clayton Kershaw, and I was pretty okay with the notion. I was right. What a powder-puff first assignment. I mean, Kershaw isn’t that much like Sandy Koufax.<br />
<br />
Let’s get into it.<br />
<br />
Team by team in order of relevance...</blockquote>Paapflyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10706602869109231246noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2455642922277411258.post-64362858087326325382011-03-30T15:18:00.000-07:002011-03-30T15:18:29.701-07:00Belt looks headed to Hollywood, not FresnoAt Bay City Ball, I break down why I think handing first base to Brandon Belt <a href="http://www.baycityball.com/2011/03/30/brandon-belt-appears-headed-to-hollywood-not-fresno/">is a good decision</a>. Even if he struggles, the Giants will have options.<br />
<br />
----<br />
<br />
Last night, <a href="https://twitter.com/johnsheahey/status/52986251443318784">a tweet by John Shea</a> really sent shockwaves throughout the Giants’ fan base:<br />
<br />
<blockquote>Heard management wants to keep Brandon Belt, leaning toward making him their starting first baseman. Announcement Wednesday.</blockquote><br />
At the risk of jumping the gun, I think Belt’s going to be playing in Los Angeles tomorrow. And it’s not so much the tweet by Shea, but the fact that Travis Ishikawa is playing first base today and Belt isn’t even so much as in the lineup. He has bags to pack and a plane to catch; he’s probably headed to Hollywood.<br />
<br />
I won’t get too much into the details on what this means for the roster. Except I do think this is a farewell game for the aforementioned Ishikawa. He’s an excellent defender, a great guy, and a decent bat off the bench – assuming he’s facing a right-handed pitcher. I’ll also never forget the walk he drew in the divisional series against the Braves that keyed a Giants comeback win. Without that walk, who knows, maybe they don’t win the World Series. But with Belt now in the fold and the incumbent Aubrey Huff, this renders Ishi a superfluous commodity, and frankly one that lacked a ton of utility to begin with... <br />
<br />
The rest is at the Giants' ESPN SweetSpot blog, <a href="http://www.baycityball.com/2011/03/30/brandon-belt-appears-headed-to-hollywood-not-fresno/">Bay City Ball</a>.Paapflyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10706602869109231246noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2455642922277411258.post-28142615126520468422011-03-29T20:36:00.001-07:002011-03-29T20:36:36.749-07:002011 MLB PredictionsMy 2011 predictions can be found <a href="http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/2011-staff-predictions/">here</a> (Hardball Times staff predictions), along with those of my colleagues.Paapflyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10706602869109231246noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2455642922277411258.post-73236686008262204382011-03-25T14:38:00.000-07:002011-03-25T14:38:36.521-07:00Hey, the new guy's pretty goodI just thought I’d publish a few thoughts on the new guy, David Schoenfield. A couple of days ago, he officially debuted on the <a href="http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot">SweetSpot</a> as the replacement of Rob Neyer – big shoes to fill according to us, <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2011/3/23/2067912/small-shoes-filled-with-big-feet">little shoes according to Neyer</a>. You have to love the humility.<br />
<br />
Anyway, I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t eagerly awaiting his replacement. For one, Neyer vowed a hunger strike until his replacement emerged, and I don’t wish him to die. Of course, he was almost certainly as apocryphal about the fast as he was about the “small shoes to fill” comment. Or else he’d be quite gaunt.<br />
<br />
The other reason is that I think I was ready for consistent, cohesive content on the SweetSpot. I thought handing the space over to the Network writers was a phenomenal idea, one that gave most of them a really great chance to showcase their talents. It also exposed a gamut of topics given the different styles and interests of each writer. Even better, I think the best of the bunch really shined. But as I said, I was ready.<br />
<br />
His <a href="http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/7716/starting-another-year-of-baseball-memories">inaugural post</a> was but an introduction, and I enjoyed it. As his furious pace continued in day one, I continued to read. Most importantly, when every so often a new post appeared on my Twitter feed, I found myself compelled to read it. This was always why I found myself coming back to the SweetSpot when Neyer was at the helm (and why I continue to do the same at his SB Nation <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/authors/rob-neyer">page</a>): I genuinely wanted to read everything he wrote. I don’t always agree with him, but there’s something about his writing that makes me feel as if, were I to miss a single post, I’ll have missed something important.<br />
<br />
I also like this about the new guy’s style: it’s different. I won’t say they could have cloned Neyer, but maybe they could have hired someone to do something similar. Instead, they hired Schoenfield and he’s taken a different approach – as was evidenced by his posting of the <a href="http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/7815/random-old-photo-of-the-day">Random Old Photo of the Day</a>, which reminds me of something <a href="http://blogs.suntimes.com/ebert/photos-in-need-of-comment/do-they-really-dye-the-river-g.html">I quite enjoy</a> about Roger Ebert’s blog. Another example: how he “teases” the ESPN Podcast – that’s one of David’s words (tease), by the way. Different. Joel and Ethan Coen could have casted someone to mimic John Wayne in the <i><a href="http://m.imdb.com/title/tt1403865/">True Grit</a><a href="http://"></a></i> (2010) remake. But they astutely plugged in Jeff Bridges, allowed him to steal the show – alongside a brilliant performance by a 14-year-old girl – and forged a new classic. Brilliant.<br />
<br />
I don’t know that I’ll continue to read David day after day, but I hope I do.<br />
<br />
ESPN: you done good.<br />
<br />
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<br />
On a side note, I’ve joined Chris Quick and Otis Anderson at <a href="http://www.baycityball.com">Bay City Ball</a>, the San Francisco Giants’ representative at the ESPN SweetSpot Network. Many of you already know this. Both are great writers and I was thrilled to join Chris’ “nerd-squad.” We’ll be covering the Giants all year long, and Chris will continue to provide the blurb for the weekly Power Rankings. Good stuff.<br />
<br />
Paapfly isn’t disappearing. I’ll probably update it from time to time. I don’t know. That’s the honest answer. But, as you can see, I just posted this, so I don’t have immediate plans to shut it down. What’s more, I plan to continue to excerpt what I write elsewhere here. Most of all, I’m confident if you truly enjoyed reading my writing that you’ll find it, wherever it is.Paapflyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10706602869109231246noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2455642922277411258.post-53183731244033551052011-03-25T11:18:00.000-07:002011-03-25T11:18:56.414-07:00Schierholtz a decent replacement for RossOver at Bay City Ball, I examine why Ross' calf injury isn't the <a href="http://www.baycityball.com/2011/03/25/schierholtz-might-hit-can-field-and-run/">End of the World</a>. <br />
<br />
<blockquote>When Giants fans see Cody Ross, they see a bald, smiling saint that crushes home runs off of Roy Halladay. Luckily, though, not all Giants fans are created equal. You see, about half of today’s Giants fans were yesterday’s casual baseball fan – or maybe last August’s casual baseball fan. Certainly, half is probably an exaggeration, but you get the point...</blockquote>Paapflyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10706602869109231246noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2455642922277411258.post-4079277701132495552011-03-23T18:51:00.000-07:002011-03-23T18:51:34.648-07:00Nomar Garciaparra's careerI took the liberty of creating a visual of <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/garcino01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Nomar Garciaparra</a></strong>'s career for you. I debuted this on Twitter earlier today, to my chagrin, it was met with lukewarm reception. I guess some folks don't quite understand the painstaking intricacies of such an endeavor.<br />
<br />
After the jump, you can decide for yourself.<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
Like I said, brilliant!<br />
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiTi7yGfTWspxKLEWKtVYeR_iAlbvmofRemqxhoMwnt1KkJqA-ZcESFDZgxW3NNy9rcYPSzB1qGbSdLMoPpLFsy8Niso5QIlBOt39CchEsv83kv3X0bYxY-JEdrhTgKG3K6L0xx7uSPH4AX/s1600/Nomar.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="296" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiTi7yGfTWspxKLEWKtVYeR_iAlbvmofRemqxhoMwnt1KkJqA-ZcESFDZgxW3NNy9rcYPSzB1qGbSdLMoPpLFsy8Niso5QIlBOt39CchEsv83kv3X0bYxY-JEdrhTgKG3K6L0xx7uSPH4AX/s400/Nomar.JPG" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Data source: not-<a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/">Baseball-reference</a><br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: left;"><br />
</div></td></tr>
</tbody></table>Paapflyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10706602869109231246noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2455642922277411258.post-196459124383880352011-03-23T16:31:00.000-07:002011-03-23T18:41:45.282-07:00Brian Wilson is out, who's in?<strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?search=Brian+Wilson&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Brian Wilson</a></strong>'s likely out for at least a little while. That's not horrible news. I mean, it's not great but it's also not the end of the world. So, who will replace him? <br />
<br />
Romo seems the obvious choice to fill his shoes, but it might be worthwhile to <a href="http://www.baycityball.com/2011/03/23/platoon-is-wilson%E2%80%99s-best-replacement/">explore a platoon</a>. <br />
<br />
Click the link and enjoy the adventure.Paapflyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10706602869109231246noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2455642922277411258.post-36415662509137814482011-03-22T06:09:00.000-07:002011-03-22T10:53:58.047-07:00No reason to panic about Tejada<b>Note</b>: this post is a joke, a spoof, and does not represent my actual thoughts on the subject. I thought I'd made that clear at the end, but I apparently did not. Sorry about that. Head over to <a href="http://www.baycityball.com/2011/03/22/trouble-at-the-keystone">Bay City Ball</a> for my real take (there was and is a link to it at the bottom as well). Also, please do enjoy this ridiculous post I had fun writing...<br />
<br />
• • •<br />
<br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Here’s something I was surprised to read from Andy Baggarly, <a href="http://twitter.com/#!/extrabaggs"><b>via Twitter</b></a> (@extrabaggs):</span><br />
<blockquote><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Courier New', Courier, monospace;">Tweet 1: [The Giants] are having a great spring overall, but gotta be honest: <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?search=Miguel+Tejada&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Miguel Tejada</a></strong> has looked terrible. He falls down fielding hard grounder. </span></blockquote><blockquote><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Courier New', Courier, monospace;">Tweet 2: Not to be mean, but if I’m <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/linceti01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Tim Lincecum</a></strong> watching Miguel Tejada play short, I’m thinking I’d better strike out 400 this year.</span></blockquote><div class="MsoNormal"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Beat writers are paid to be objective, but this is borderline malicious. They have to ask the tough questions, sure, but come on! And besides, Tejada definitely has something left.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">First of all, Tejada won an AL MVP award in 2002, and that definitely means something. He’s also an eight-time All-Star and two-time Silver Slugger award recipient. He’s one of the best players at the keystone over the last 20 years or so. What’s more, he’s hit in the middle of the lineup for just about every single team he’s ever played for, including the 2010 Padres, And those Padres <i>almost</i> made the playoffs.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">He's a leader in the clubhouse, worthy of replacing two others in Edgar Renteria and Juan Uribe.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The evidence doesn’t stop there. Tejada hit 50 doubles in 2005 to lead the league! 50! He even hit 46 in 2009 to lead the league again. He’s already got 300 home runs in his career and his career batting average is very good for a shortstop at .287. More important than all of that, though, is the RBI he’s accumulated. He can really smell a run batted in when there are runners on base. It’s because of this that he’s finished six seasons with 100 or more RBI, leading the league in 2004 with 150!<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Defensively, I’ve read a lot of junk about how he can’t play the position – this in addition to Baggarly’s recent additions to the discussion. It seems crazy to me. Really crazy. <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/smithoz01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Ozzie Smith</a></strong> has a career .978 fielding percentage, and he’s in the Hall of Fame. In fact, he was largely voted in because of his glove and not his bat. They didn’t call him The Wizard for nothing. Tejada is a career .972 fielder, or just a shade below Smith.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Smith played until he was 41, and I see no reason why Tejada cannot follow in his foot stops. And Tejada’s a better run producer to boot. After the jump, my conclusion on this madness about Tejada's shortcomings...</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;"><br />
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt;"></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal"></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: grey; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 16pt;">· · ·</span></b></span></div><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;"></span></div><a name='more'></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Three options (and they are all kind of plausible, right?):</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div><ol start="1" style="margin-top: 0in;" type="1"><li class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.murraychass.com/"><b>Murray Chass</b></a> stole my blogger account information and posted something.<o:p></o:p></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I drank so much at my brother’s bachelor party this weekend that I have four brain cells remaining. My writing and take on baseball has evolved accordingly.<o:p></o:p></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">This was a spoof post inspired by <a href="http://8thinningweirdness.blogspot.com/"><b>8<sup>th</sup> Inning Weirdness</b></a> (Twitter: @8thInnWeirdness), and my actual thoughts on this matter can be found <b><u><a href="http://www.baycityball.com/2011/03/22/trouble-at-the-keystone/">elsewhere</a></u></b>... a new era has begun.<o:p></o:p></span></li>
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</div>Paapflyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10706602869109231246noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2455642922277411258.post-12148338736673336282011-03-18T12:36:00.000-07:002011-03-21T16:40:40.704-07:00Scoring and run prevention of World Series winners<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I posted an addendum to my most recent Hardball Times article. You can find it <a href="http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/blog_article/pitching-and-hitting-of-world-series-teams">here</a>. </span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br />
</span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">----</span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br />
</span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">On an unrelated note, Scottsdale is warm and fun. Also, there are a gajillion Giants fans here. But, I do wonder when their love affair began.</span>Paapflyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10706602869109231246noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2455642922277411258.post-88631657192370130142011-03-17T12:43:00.000-07:002011-03-17T14:14:43.193-07:00What you risk when you send Brandon Belt to FresnoI'm writing this from my iPhone, so when you find the first error, know that and move on. <br />
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<br />
I asked a question to myself today, and "fired it through the Internet," <a href="http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/03/15/ron-gardenhires-just-fire-it-through-the-internet-quote-is-already-a-t-shirt/">as Ron Gardenhire</a> would say. I used Twitter, the preferred method of the times. My question: Are Brian Sabean's recent comments -- Brandon Belt might be ready, and he's opened up some eyes this spring -- obligatory, or are they sincere? Which is to ask, is he simply saying this so we all don't grumble that, when he does send him to Triple-A, he's done so to delay his seemingly inevitable date with arbitration, or, is he actually contemplating placing Belt at first on Opening Day at Chavez Ravine?<br />
<br />
A fellow blogger, the <a href="http://www.crazycrabbers.com/">Crazy Crabbers</a>, wondered what the harm would be in being cautious: <br />
<br />
<blockquote>I don't see there being a huge downside for waiting but there is in bringing him up too soon. What is wrong with [a] cautious approach?</blockquote><br />
It could be that there's no harm at all. Or, it could be disastrous. Here's why: If, when you leave a talented player in the minor leagues, you're not putting the best team you can on the field, you're playing a dangerous game. There's something to be said for putting your best team on the field, you know, because that's what wins you the most baseball games. The Giants played this game last year, gambled, and won. They "preferred" Bengie Molina to Buster Posey on Opening Day, and for the first couple of months. Then, when Posey was good and "ready," they brought him to San Francisco. There's little doubt that he helped the Giants win more games than Molina would have. There's little doubt they won fewer when Molina was starting every day in April and May. <br />
<br />
What if the Padres don't lose 11 games in a row? What if, the Giants lost Sunday, October 3, 2010, and again on Monday. What if they then lose to the Braves? Well, because hindsight is 20/20: the Giants don't just miss the playoffs, they lose a World Series championship. They lose a parade of one million people rejoicing in the splendor of the first championship in San Francisco Giants history. They lose an awful lot. <br />
<br />
I'm not saying Belt is ready or that he gives them the best chance to win. That's for Sabean and his minions to decide. But if he is, and they send him to Fresno, it's a crying shame. You might gain another year of Belt and save some money, but you potentially lose Who Knows What. that's the harm: The unknown. <br />
<br />
The Giants aren't such favorites that a few wins shouldn't matter. A few wins might decide the division. Plus, wasn't it refreshing when Jason Heyward made the Opening Day roster of the Braves last year? I sure thought so. Something tells me the Braves' brass was also refreshed when Heyward helped propel his team to the first round of the playoffs. And finally, I'm not the least bit convinced a great deal of harm can be done by bringing a player up to soon, and having him experience a bit of failure. Show me the study that says it'll ruin a young hitter, and we can talk. <br />
<br />
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<br />
I'm now boarding to Scottsdale. Finally.Paapflyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10706602869109231246noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2455642922277411258.post-78220335583706861922011-03-16T08:05:00.000-07:002011-03-16T08:05:09.686-07:00Why the 2010 Giants' World Series was no flukeI don’t have anything new up today, but I thought you might want to head over to the Hardball Times for my recent article: <a href="http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/pitching-almost-always-wins-championships/">Pitching (almost) always wins championships</a>.<br />
<br />
Here’s a portion that would be of interest to Giants fans:<br />
<br />
<blockquote>I think this really hammers home the point that pitching really does win championships; that you need at least an adequate stable of arms to have a prayer. Trying to win the Fall Classic without league-average pitching has proven to be about as fruitful as attempting to drive a car without gas. You’re not going to get very far. So, if you had to choose which is more important between offense and pitching, the answer is obvious: run prevention…<br />
<br />
I also took the liberty of averaging each teams OPS+ and ERA+ to determine how much better than average they were overall. I then averaged all of those numbers, whereby I discovered the average World Series champion has graded out at 108.7, or about eight percent better than league average.<br />
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If you take the most recent champion, the San Francisco Giants, and add their OPS+ (95) and ERA+ (121) from 2010 together, you get a grade of 108. This goes to show their World Series title in 2010 shouldn’t be considered lucky or a fluke, rather, they were a perfectly average champion. What’s more, their excellent ERA+ fulfilled the pertinent requirement of at least adequate pitching. Looking at the data this way would make a lot of pundits feel silly on their pre-postseason picks, routinely expecting them to lose.</blockquote> <br />
Please head over to the Hardball Times <a href="http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/pitching-almost-always-wins-championships/">for the rest</a>.Paapflyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10706602869109231246noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2455642922277411258.post-23083673433476700002011-03-14T20:44:00.000-07:002011-03-15T08:58:43.964-07:00Pablo Sandoval is lighter, but is he better?Jeff Sullivan at SB Nation <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2011/3/14/2049269/pablo-sandoval-lost-weight-giants">recently pointed out</a> that this March isn’t the only March where <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sandopa01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Pablo Sandoval</a></strong> has lost a bunch of weight.<br />
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First off, while many claimed Sandoval had leaned out some last spring training, our eyes were telling us something different entirely. Perhaps, instead of admitting then and there that “Camp Panda” was a failure, the Giants figured they could get a handle on him once again considering they’d have their hands on him (figuratively speaking, folks) all day, every day… or most of it anyway.<br />
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But here’s the portion I’m interested in:<br />
<blockquote><span style="font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace;">It’s important, though, to remain reasonable. Sandoval <i>may</i> bounce back in a big way at the plate. He may improve in the field, too. Being in better shape can’t possibly hurt him. But the last time he lost a lot of weight he went on to struggle, and that’s something people have to keep in mind. That Pablo Sandoval’s eating wheat bread now doesn’t automatically mean his numbers are going to go up, because while his weight was probably an issue, it was never his biggest problem. Sandoval’s biggest problem has always been that he’s way too aggressive, and unless he’s suddenly able to deduce more proficiently what’s a ball and what’s a strike, he’s unlikely to re-establish himself as a star.</span></blockquote>I can sympathize where Jeff is going, but I don’t necessarily agree. No, I can’t because I don’t think Sandoval’s ability to re-emerge as a young star in the National League weighs on his plate discipline any more than <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?search=Carlos+Gonzalez&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Carlos Gonzalez</a></strong>’s plate discipline (or complete lack there of) weighs on his ability to remain one.<br />
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In 2009, Sandoval’s unintentional walk rate was 8.21 percent. In 2010, it was 7.63 percent. If you want to know exactly how many walks the difference was, I’ll tell you (I’ve looked it up): five. That’s right, Sandoval walked just five fewer times in 2010 than he did in 2009 (and in 17 fewer plate appearances).<br />
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We might also take a look at his pitches per plate appearance. In 2008, he saw just 3.10 pitches per plate appearance. He did improve that in 2009 to 3.44, and perhaps that’s why he was so successful. But if he really was being too aggressive in 2010, wouldn’t the data tell us that? In 2010, he saw 3.43 or virtually exactly the same number as he had in his breakout 2009 campaign.<br />
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To be fair, I think a question worth asking is, given that he was seeing roughly the same number of pitches in both seasons, whether or not Sandoval was swinging at the <i>right</i> pitches. Unfortunately, that’s a very difficult one to answer. And if what I’ve been reading about pitch location data is true, it’s far from reliable. In fact, it’s probably nearer to worthless.<br />
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So, with the limited data I have at my disposal, I’m leaning towards this: the real difference in the outstanding, chubby version of Sandoval and the crummy, chubbier iteration from 2010 was more likely his average on balls and play and power.<br />
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2008 was the season Sandoval actually broke out in professional baseball. He’d been extremely young for each league coming up through the Giants’ system, but in 2008 he was no longer showing it. He started the season in Advanced Single-A and hit .359 with 12 home runs and 98 hits in just 301 plate appearances. That earned him a promotion to Double-A, where he hit .337 with another eight home runs in 184 plate appearances. In those stops, his batting average on balls in play (BABiP) was .384 and .345, his isolated power (ISO) .238 and .211.<br />
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Those auditions earned him a cup of coffee in the show. While his ISO dipped, his BABiP kept steady at .356, allowing him to hit .345 in 154 plate appearances. That cemented Pablo as a mainstay in a lineup that previously contained basically zero upside.<br />
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The following season, 2009, Sandoval just kept on lighting up the league and finished with a line of .330/.387/.556 (batting average/ on-base percentage/ slugging). His BABiP remained very high at .350 and his ISO spiked to .226 as he hit 25 home runs, 44 doubles and five triples. That was good for an outstanding weight on-base average (wOBA) of .396 and some deserving MVP votes.<br />
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In 2010, the hits stopped falling and the fly balls were no longer leaving the yard. His average on balls in play plummeted to a pedestrian .291 and his ISO fell to .140. This could have been the result of a few things. One of them could be that he simply was lucky in 2009 and the law of averages was returning him to neutral luck. Another is that he was very <i>unlucky</i> in 2010. My last guess would have to be that he had a decline in skill, that his ability to sting the ball all over the yard and drive it over the padded fences had diminished. Maybe that had to do with him being too heavy and his bat too lethargic, maybe it didn’t.<br />
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But Sandoval was a really good hitter in 2009 without tremendous plate discipline. What’s more, his 8.21 percent walk rate was actually pretty decent. In 2010, his rate of 7.63 percent was still decent. It was all of those balls that were landing in gloves and not a) rolling around in the outfield grass or b) landing in lucky fans’ gloves (or the drink at McCovey Cove).<br />
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I suspect his future will hinge on his ability (or inability) to make hard contact to all fields and do a lot better on balls in play, which is a skill we know hitters have a heck of a lot more control of than do pitchers. Also: whether or not he can start driving the ball to the tune of a 200+ isolated power.<br />
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The plate discipline will help some, sure, but hitters don’t tend to make significant strides in that area and it’s not the be all and end all -- my apologies to those that misinterpreted <i><a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/aw/d.html/ref=redir_mdp_mobile/181-9903719-2335365?a=0393057658">Moneyball</a></i>. It certainly won’t be what I’ll be paying close attention to.<br />
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Lastly, the papers are telling us (again) that Sandoval lost a lot of weight, but this time our eyes are too.<br />
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<b>Stats used are from <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/">FanGraphs</a></b>Paapflyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10706602869109231246noreply@blogger.com10tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2455642922277411258.post-50198573225793159322011-03-13T22:16:00.000-07:002011-03-13T22:20:33.831-07:00View from the other side of the BayDan Hennessey of the Oakland A’s blog <a href="http://baseballinonabudget.com/"><strong><span style="color: #38761d;">Baseballin’ on a Budget</span></strong></a> – the same of Rob Neyer’s (abandoned) baby: The <a href="http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot"><strong><span style="color: blue;">SweetSpot Network</span></strong> </a>– and I thought it might be fun to get an unbiased take from one another on the San Francisco Giants and Oakland Athletics. It makes a whole lot of sense given the adjacency of their markets and the cross-town rivals that they are – not to mention, that “quick” little study Bud Selig is working on regarding the Athletics’ potential move to San Jose. After the jump, Dan will answer some questions on the Giants. Well, mostly the Giants…<br />
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<strong>RP: First off, welcome to Paapfly. Come up with the right answers, and you come out of this alive. Off-topic topic first… how did it feel to be approached by Neyer to join the awesome SweetSpot?</strong><br />
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DH: It was (and is) a terrific honor. I was at the Sportvision Pitchf/x Summit in San Francisco and saw him standing by himself during a break. I figured I probably wouldn't be in the same room with him again, so I introduced myself. Couldn't have been a nicer guy. Talked with me for about 15 minutes and <em>asked me</em> to remain in contact with him. Uh...sure, Rob...I guess. I want to put it in perspective, because the guy didn't change my life and he's not a personal hero or anything, but he is the reason why I watch baseball in the manner I do, with an eye toward numbers and a deeper truth. And baseball matters to me. When he considered my writing at least adequate enough to be associated it with his name, well, that was a pretty good day.<br />
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<strong>RP: In the non-Mariners category, the A’s didn’t score runs last year. So, some guy named <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/beanebi01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Billy Beane</a></strong> – he runs things in Oakland between watching soccer – made a few changes. The Giants were no powerhouse offense either, but opted to do very little after winning it all. Good or bad idea?</strong><br />
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Here's what the Giants did: their team won the championship, so they brought everyone back. Is <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/huffau01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Aubrey Huff</a></strong> a bargain anymore? Absolutely not. Will he be worth it? I lean toward no, but there's a chance. The only addition was <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?search=Miguel+Tejada&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Miguel Tejada</a></strong>, and there are so many places for regression in that lineup that I can't help but think they'll be worse. After all, they won 92 games last year...a lot of teams will be worse after that. The A's changes were all at the margins and for almost no cost; it might not seem like a lot, but the half-wins they add at six or seven spots add up. What they really need though is for the guys they already have to play better. <br />
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<strong>RP: Do you think the Giants have a legitimate claim to San Jose? </strong><br />
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DH: I hate everything about this stadium mess. I work for a transportation consultant and have worked on stadium proposals for the A's in both Fremont and Oakland. It seems so wrong to me that this can't be figured out. MLB clearly wants the A's in Oakland. The Giants want anything but San Jose. Wolff wants to be anywhere but Oakland and his number one choice is San Jose. And would you just give away rights that you own? Even if you didn't want them/had no problem with someone taking them, you'd still make them pay for it. The Giants are doing what's right by them, even if it's not good for the A's or baseball. Nothing wrong with acting in your own self-interest.<br />
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<strong>RP: I have my owns thoughts on <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cahiltr01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Trevor Cahill</a></strong>, but despite their completely disparate pitching style, he and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cainma01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Matt Cain</a></strong> fall into the same “Lucky” or “Good” category. Fielding-independent pitching (FIP) crushes them both. Tell me, Dan: Is Cain lucky or good?</strong><br />
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Can't it be both? Sometimes I feel like sabermetricians get so caught up in trying to find an answer for every little thing that they lose sight of the bigger picture. Matt Cain is good. 30 teams would take him on their roster tomorrow. Is he going to continue posting ERAs in the low 3.00 range like the last two years? I'd guess not. He might be an outlier, but there's 40 years of data that say he'll fall back a little bit. And even if he does, he's still really good. If he gives up a few more hits with men on base and a couple of extra homers, does that make him bad? No, it makes him normal. Now, Trevor Cahill, that dude is LUCKY.<br />
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<strong>RP: We witnessed <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sandopa01.shtml">Pablo “Kung-Fu Panda” Sandoval</a> go from a budding star to an overweight, poor-hitting, defensively-challenged third baseman. Do you think his new figure will lead to another monster season like 2009? Or, do you think somewhere in the middle of 2009 and 2010 is more likely?</strong><br />
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DH: I get the feeling with Pablo that if he gives a crap, he'll be fine. I think he was a little unlucky last year, but he has to hit for more power if he's going to continue to walk so little. The Panda will probably never duplicate his 2009 season, but he's not as bad as last season either. .280 with 20 home runs is reasonable, and if he could walk enough to get on base 35 percent of the time, that would make him much more valuable. He has to hit though if he's going to play; they aren't putting him out there for his glove.<br />
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<strong>RP: The A’s have their own quality catcher that came from a legit college program (<strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/suzukku01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Kurt Suzuki</a></strong>, Cal State Fullerton). Do you think <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/poseybu01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Buster Posey</a></strong> (Florida State) is in danger of a sophomore slump? Also… what the heck happened to <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wietema01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Matt Wieters</a></strong> (Georgia Tech)?</strong><br />
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DH: I think the sophomore slump is a creation of expectations. Of course rookies who do well will struggle more often in their second seasons. We expect them to keep trucking along, but if we noticed them as rookies, they probably played a little bit above their heads. That said, Buster is the real deal. Given the result of the season, it's hard to question what Sabean did, but Posey was ready in April. Leaving him in Triple-A could have cost them games, and even one fewer win could have kept them out of the playoffs.<br />
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Will Posey hit .300 again and play at an All-Star caliber level? I'll lean towards no, only because it's really hard to do. But I fully expect him to be the Giants' best hitter. As for Wieters, again, expectations. PECOTA had the guy as an MVP candidate before he made his debut. Is he going to be the savior some thought he might be? Probably not. But he's only 24 and he's got time to become an above-average major league catcher.<br />
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<strong>RP: If you’re Brian Sabean, what do you do with <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker&id=belt--001bra" target="_blank">Brandon Belt</a></strong>?</strong><br />
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DH: I let Huff walk and I play him at first. Oh, too late for that? Hey, injuries happen, slumps happen. At some point, Brandon Belt will be a Giant this year. Now, having re-signed Huff, they almost have to play him, probably in left field (although apparently the Giants have a grasp of the concept a sunk cost; see: Rowand, Aaron; Zito, Barry). Issue there is that Huff may give back in the field all the runs he creates at the plate. Belt's got a long future with the Giants, even if it's delayed a little at the beginning of the season.<br />
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<strong>RP: The A’s have a sparkling, young rotation anchored by <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?search=Brett+Anderson&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Brett Anderson</a></strong>. The Giants do too. How much better is the Phillies’ rotation, really? Would you prefer the Giants’ rotation over the long-term?</strong><br />
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DH: Depends what long-term is. If it's three years, I'd probably still say Phillies. If it's seven years, Giants. Halladay is the best pitcher in the game. <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?search=Cliff+Lee&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Cliff Lee</a></strong> is one of the top five or six. Oswalt and Hamels are All-Stars. The Giants have <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/linceti01.shtml"><strong>Tim Lincecum</strong></a>, who is in that group with Lee. Cain is an All-Star caliber pitcher. Are Sanchez and Bumgarner? Not yet, but both could be. I don't see the Philly pitchers phading phast enough to pick the Giant pitchers just yet. Both are a lot of fun to watch though. <br />
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<strong>RP: Final question, and the most important of the lot: The Giants and A’s, half-and-half hat… lame, right?</strong><br />
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Stupid. If you have a son on both teams, it's ok. I went to Ohio State while Brady Quinn's sister dated A.J. Hawk; I hated every second of <a href="http://jockettejournal.files.wordpress.com/2010/05/20061025-lauraquinn.jpg"><strong>this</strong></a>. Pick a team, stick with them. If you are an A's fan and the Giants are good, the playoffs roll around and you want to root for them, fine. Everyone likes a winner, plus the Giants rival is the Dodgers. The A's-Giants thing is overblown to me. It's fun during interleague, but essentially means very little. For a real rivalry, there has to be a history, and one World Series (sweep) doesn't cut it.<br />
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But, if you're going to cross over, no gear. And certainly no half-sy gear.<br />
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No doubt about it, I agree with Dan around the horn…<br />
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The Giants’ offseason strategy clearly wasn’t the best repeat strategy. I’d have let Huff walk and inserted Belt, were it me, because I think he’s every bit as ready this April as Posey seemingly was about 365 days ago. The expectations for Weiters were outrageous and irresponsible. Pablo should be much better in 2011 by simply showing up and caring, and arriving in Scottsdale with 40 less pounds kind of already accomplished that. The Giants are acting rationally in their guarding of San Jose. Cahill was very lucky last season and Cain is very good pitcher. At tossing the pill, the Phillies have no peer, at least for a couple more seasons. And the A’s/Giants, hybrid hat is an atrocity.<br />
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Finally, I agree the A’s and Giants rivalry is way overblown. In fact, I am one of those people that root for the A’s when they make it to the tournament. Also, I think Dan underplayed what they managed to accomplish in improving their roster this winter. I guess we’ll all see soon enough.<br />
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Now head on over to Baseballin’ on a Budget <strong><a href="http://baseballinonabudget.com/2011/03/13/thoughts-from-a-giants-fan/">where I answer those questions</a></strong> that Dan has chosen to fire at me about the Giants and Oakland A’s.Paapflyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10706602869109231246noreply@blogger.com4