Bullpen Looking Thin?

Bob:
No lefty relievers in the pen anymore with Affeldt and Runzler injured, how did I not notice that until today?


Dirty:
Not sure but that's baddddd. Nothing in Fresno to help either, Hinshaw sucks. Will Ohman of the Orioles is on the radar, as is Scott Downs. Downs is on everyones radar though and will be expensive prospect-wise. He's a projected type-A free agent to be. So whoever gets him will get 1st round draft pick compensation if he signs elsewhere.

Is the Kid Alright?

Bob:

I didn't see the whole game, but Timmy's box score...anyway, FP said that he thinks he wasn't sharp because of his complete game last week. Any thoughts, Dirty?

Good eye for ol' pumpkin head huh? Glad Torres capitalized on it and kept the momentum in the Giants favor. It's sweep time in LA!

Dirty:
Lincecum only threw 110 pitches to complete that shutout, so I wouldn’t think that’s the reason. Maybe the reason he was throwing 94 in the first game after the break was the extra rest. And maybe he was throwing 90-91 last night because he was throwing on regular rest. I think it’s safe to say that he’s not going to consistently throw as hard as he used to, not even close really.

His curveball hasn’t been very effective this year and his changeup hasn’t been as effective. He hasn’t been pounding the zone with his fastball because he either can’t, or isn’t comfortable doing so with his diminished velocity. It’s a mystery.

Big Game Tonight

Dirty:
Tonight should be a really good matchup, considering it will be Ace vs. Ace – Lincecum vs. Kershaw.

I must admit that it does appear Pablo is starting to come out of it. I don’t wont to get too ahead of myself because a there were a few times where it seemed he was waking up in late May and June but he never sustained it. Tonight will be a big obstacle because 1) he’ll have to face a good pitcher and 2) Kershaw is left-handed and everyone seems to think his right handed swing is finally coming around.
Is it me or is Burrel not playing nearly as often? His defense is poor but I really like seeing his bat in there. That’s another OBP type hitter with lots of pop. I guess he’s struggled a bit in July.
The Giants just have to keep pushing to win series’ and win as many games as possible. I still think the Padres have to hit some type of skid at some point but I don’t think the Giants should sit around waiting for it. It’s inexplicably not happened to this point so you-never-know.

Bob:
As far as catching the Padres, after a look at the their August schedule and the Giants, we have the far more difficult one. They play Az like 8 times in August, they play Mil, Pit, and Philly, while we get Az 3 games and play Philly, STL and ATL in August. It's going to take the giants current momentum and a serious fall off of the Padres staff. Would you not say?


Dirty:
I did see the Padres’ schedule and concur it is more favorable, opponent wise. But the Giants have more home games from here on out than do the Padres so that has to be a consideration. I think it now stands 35-34 versus the Padres 32-37. I was chatting with Mike Helms yesterday and sort of broke it down. It should come down to September 9th through October 3rd, in my opinion. The Padres will play the Giants 4 straight at San Diego starting Sept 9 and then go on an 11 game road trip including St. Louis, Colorado and Cincinatti. They also finish the season against the Giants in San Francisco. In fact, I think they play 13 of their last 20 on the road. Of the 10 games left head to head, 6 are in SF, 4 in SD. That favors the Giants as well. What else? Well, the Padres have danced around facing Aces it seems like to me. For example, the Padres have played the Giants, what, 9 games? They’ve faced Lincecum 0 times. They didn’t face Strasburg either. It should come down to head to head games and the Giants aren’t going to go 1-8 again.


Let’s not forget that the last time the Padres played the Giants they were a much different team. The Giants now have Torres at leadoff, Posey catching, they’ve added Burrel and perhaps most importantly Bumgarner pitching every 5th day versus Wellermeyer. The Giants have significantly improved themselves in key areas since they last saw the Padres. When we think of Posey – we think offense. Well, I’m pretty certain that teams have taken notice of Posey’s athleticism and arm and flat out have reduced their stealing attempts. Their best starter, Latos, also went on the 15 day DL. If the Giants’ deadline deal improves them more than does the Padres, I think the Giants can do it.

And if not, there’s the Wild Card too. I wouldn’t bet against the NL West taking the honors for that.

Rockfish:
Fireworks at the park tonight. Timmy looked like there was something wrong with him again. His fastball was down a few MPH, and his curveball didn't have any snap. It almost seemed like his changeup was the only pitch he had faith in.
 
I love that these guys have some heart again. I never count them out, even when down 4 runs. Watching the game now, hoping we can pull this out late.
 
I'm still not a believer in the Padres to run the table. I keep waiting for them to fade. Can they really stay in it all season with so many young guys, relying solely on good pitching, and defense?

Bob:
I love this rivalry so much.

Velez Returns

The Giants apparently optioned Joe Martinez to AAA Fresno and replaced him with Eugenio Velez. Velez is typically nails for about 5-6 games, maybe a week, before going into an offensive freefall and making several key defensive mistakes. Unfortunately, by then our man Bruce Bochy has installed him into the everyday lineup. Anyway, this is still a good move. Nothing could be worse than carrying 13 pitchers (8 relievers). When you carry 8 relievers and you have an excellent starting pitching staff, you basically have 1-2 guys that sit in the bullpen and light each others cleats – or shoes since they know they won’t get in – on fire. Then when you’re in a tight spot in the 10th inning you have to let guys like Eli Whiteside (try to) hit – whom can’t even hit a hanging slider. I gave serious thought that having Schierholtz pinch hit – and likely intentionally walked – and Bumgarner hit with the bases loaded with no more position players might have been the best move as opposed to having Whiteside hit with 2 on.

Jerry Crasnik Compares Buster Posey to Larry Bird

This is from Jayson Stark's Insider's Only Column...

"In case you hadn't noticed this, Buster Posey is on the road to becoming more than just the greatest Buster in baseball history. He's on the road to becoming Ty Cobb.
In July (so far), this guy isn't merely hitting .300. And he isn't merely hitting .400. He's hitting .500 (22 for 44). That's all. Just .500, with a .977 slugging percentage and a 1.526 OPS.
Nobody has more homers (six) this month. Or more RBIs (16). Or more runs scored (13). And hang on, there's more.

If you missed the fabulous "Elias Says" column last Sunday, you missed this gem: Over his past 10 games, Posey cranked out 19 hits, six homers and 13 RBIs. So how many other rookies in National League history have had a 10-game stretch in which they did all that, according to the Elias Sports Bureau? That would be none. Nada. Zero. Amazing.

Want more evidence this man is a born hit machine? He's only been in the big leagues about a month and a half. But he already has more multi-hit games (15) than Manny Ramirez, Carlos Pena or Jorge Posada. And more three-hit games (5) than Chase Utley, Josh Willingham or Prince Fielder. And more four-hit games (2) than Ichiro, Joey Votto or Vladimir Guerrero.
And remember, all of this has gone on since the Giants exported Bengie Molina to turn their regular catching job into Posey territory. So obviously, the guy is really having a tough time with that kind of pressure. Otherwise, he might be hitting .800.
One scout I talked to compared him to Utley and Votto and said, "Of all the rookies I've seen in the last few years, this kid came up and made an impact faster than any of them. He's a force already."



And another scout dropped two even bigger names on me -- Joe Mauer and (you don't hear this one much in baseball) Larry Bird.
Why Mauer? "I'm not saying his swing is the same as Mauer. But you know how some guys walk to the plate with that quiet confidence? That's what I saw from him, right from the beginning. He knows he can hit. He's not afraid to hit with two strikes. And he never chased. That never happens with young guys. They always chase something. Not him."
OK, and why Bird? "He's Larry Bird-esque, in a baseball way, because he's got a vision. The game seemed to slow down for him, even when he was playing first base. It wasn't easy for him, but he always seemed to know the right thing to do and know the right place to be. He was never overwhelmed by the big leagues."
Well, I don't know how many 3-pointers Buster Posey is going to sink. But I know this: He already leads Larry Bird in most career Sandwich Awards -- 1 to 0."

Belt Update

So that Brandon Belt kid? In AA – the same AA that has basically taken last years promising A-Advanced, title winning, promising hitters, and slapped them in the face – it didn’t slow him down. Since his promotion, well see the stats below. 5 HR in 40 AB’s to go with a 1.337 OPS. And 5 of his HR have come against left handed pitchers even though he himself is a left handed hitter. I know it’s only 300 AB’s but holy smokes this kid is on fire. I hope they can retain him during the trade deadline because I want to see where this kid ends up. His apparent good eye and ability to draw walks is such a key in this organization – I wouldn’t doubt it if a trade partner conveniently tries to throw his name in the deal. The Giants would be smart to say, “no way.” They say A to AA is the biggest jump.

Last Night

Dirty:
Heard this: A top Royals talent evaluator was at last nights game to watch the Giants versus Mets. Let’s hope they’re working on a deal for David DeJesus and not Jose Guillen. I hope that Sabean is at least apt enough to know that they already have Jose Guillen, i.e. Pat Burrel – who’s actually probably a better player – and he’s costing them nothing. I think that DeJesus is possible the piece they need. They also might have one of the arms they need to shore up the pen in-house. For one, Romo has been stellar since May 9th. And two, the Giants have a reliever in Fresno named Steve Edelfson who is an EXTREME ground ball pitcher that also produces decent strikeout rates. He’d be good to add to that pen.


Rockfish:
What's up with dontrelle willis?

Dirty:
He’s been terrible for three straight years. He can’t throw strikes anymore. He had a 6.35 ERA in Detroit this year and was released. The Diamondbacks picked him up and he posted a 6.34 ERA. Let’s just think about that. The Diamondbacks have serious pitching issues and they released him.
He looks to be done, but the Giants grabbed him at no risk. It seems to me that the Tigers and DBacks tried to keep him as a starter, whereas the Giants have said they intend to stick him in the bullpen in AAA and see how it goes. That’s a good idea because most relievers are failed starters. Anyway, his agent claims Dontrelle had many offers but chose the Giants because of known pitching guru and director of player development, Dick Tidrow, might be able to fix him. We’ll see. I suspect he’s dunzo but it doesn’t hurt. The Giants lack a left handed reliever right now with Affeldt’s struggles and Runzler’s injury, and apparently Dontrelle has always excelled versus left handed hitters.
Time will tell.

Here’s what I can gather from FanGraphs. In 2003 and 2004 he was a darn good pitcher. He struck out about 6-7 batters per 9 and walked about 3 batters per 9. In 2005, he put it all together for an outstanding season where he gave up hardly any HR, continued to strike out around 6-7 per 9, but only walked about 2 per 9. That’s a nice 3-1 K/BB ratio. In 2006, he appeared to regress back to his true skill set of 6-7 K’s per 9 and 3+ walks per 9. In 2007, he did about the same but walked closer to 4 per 9 which was a bad sign. The Marlins smartly traded him but unfortunately packaged Miguel Cabrera – a likely future hall of famer – for Cameron Maybin and Andrew Miller who are both close to busts as of right now. Maybin was recently sent down to the minor leagues after struggling this season when he was given the everyday CF job. Miller has toiled in the minor leagues.


Willis hasn’t been close to the pitcher he was since that trade. He’s never pitcher more than 63 innings in a season and his walk rate SKYROCKETED. He’s actually walked more batters than he’s struck out each season starting in 2008, and at times by a lot! I also looked into his pitch values. Sometime between 2006 and 2007 he abandoned his cut fastball. It hadn’t been a hugely successful pitch – it doesn’t seem – but he was throwing it 10-12% of the time. In 2005 his fastball was outstanding and he threw it about 66% of the time. In 2007 he threw more fastballs than ever and with less and less effectiveness, as well as abandoning the cutter. His fastball has not declined significantly, but it has dropped from around a 90-91 MPH average to about 88 currently. So basically since 2007 he’s thrown more fastballs than ever, at a slightly slower speed and with significantly poorer location. That obviously leads to: more walks, fewer strikeouts, more hard hit balls and home runs.

And to put the cherry on top, Dontrelle has suffered from anxiety issues and has faced DL time because of. He’s obviously got no confidence.

I say – 1) fix the brain/mindset/ confidence, 2) fix the fastball (and maybe add the cutter) – and maybe you 3) fix the pitcher.

Rockfish:
This is an inspiring piece of analysis. D-Train intrigues me beacuse he's a local guy, and he always appeared to seriously love the game. I'm pulling for him, not necessarily for the Giants sake. If I remember correctly he was a huge part of that 2003 Marlins team that broke my heart. I think he was like 9-0 after being called up from the minors that year, plus hit a couple dingers. They were the, JT Snow tagged out by Pudge, end of the Giants Era, at Pro-Players stadium, Marlins.

Bob:
You said exactly what I have been thinking!

Dirty Feeding Updates: Phew!

Dirty:
The Yankees are about to trade for Cliff Lee – the deal is basically done already. Wow, that’s cool. It gets more and more ridiculous every single day. I guess Werth is on the block in Philly … I wonder if the Giants would consider getting in on that …


Dirty:
FRIDAY, 12:50pm: Rosenthal says the Giants aren't ready to act on a trade for Hart (Twitter link). They would prefer a left-handed bat and would rather give up prospects than a major league arm like Jonathan Sanchez.


Dirty:
I think a QUALITY bat should be the goal, not certain handedness. That’s why I’m all for Willingham and not Hart’s lucky first half.


Dirty:
And the Rangers look to have pulled off the trade for Lee, sending the Yankees on their way.

Posey is SO sick.

Dirty:
That was one explosive game yesterday. They could have used a few of those runs to disperse over their previous 10 games. That’s two starts in a row in which Lincecum maintained a 94 MPH fastball throughout the game. That’s really encouraging. It’s kind of crazy to when you think of how disappointed we’ve been in him this year – and then you look at his stats and he’s at 3.16 or one good start from having a sub-three ERA to go with 9 wins and 131 strikeouts. He’s definitely a case where colossal expectations cloud your judgment on how good someone is or needs to be. I guess back-to-back Cy Young’s will do that. Speaking of Cy Young, how awesome was it to completely screw up Ubaldo Jimenez’s ERA? I didn’t see it but they tagged him for 7 ER, that’s awesome.

I guess the Giants are in love with Corey Hart. That seriously concerns me. Hart is having a career year but we’re talking about a hot 3 months. He sucked last year and wasn’t very good in 2008. He’s also not a great defender. His OBP is only .346 so his outstanding season is driven by slugging percentage. If anyone thinks his slugging percentage is going to continue to be above .550, they are smoking dope – especially if he’s playing half his games in AT&T and not the homerdome Milwaukee. All of his stats seem to be in line with his career numbers except for his fly ball % and HR/FB. He’s hitting the ball in the air more often and the ball is finding its way into the seats more often than it ever has. If they give up Jonathan Sanchez for this kid I’m going to lose my mind. Also, weren’t the Giants just saying they were concerned the lineup had gotten too right handed? So why is Corey Hart the answer, another righty? And if you trade Sanchez, who is going to pitch in his spot? Wellermeyer? Joe Martinez? Oh boy …

Bob:
As disappointed as I was about the slump Tim was in, I never actually thought it was going to be long term. I was figuring he'd return to form day one after the all star break at the latest. He was way to good at the beginning of the season to not return to form (at least that was my take).

If the giants trade J Sanch for less than say Prince Fielder, I'll be disappointed as hell.

Dirty:
Padres haven’t yet played today, but the Giants are just 4.5 games back as of this moment. They just pummeled the Brewers for a 4 game sweep and still have a quality run differential. That was a rough stretch but they’re still very much in this NL West race. Posey hit another jack today, giving him 5 in the past week or so. Kids on fire – I remember telling Rusty how his HR seem to come in bunches. If Panda ever starts to even resemble the hitter he was last year and the Giants add some pieces, they’d be in pretty darn good shape.


Rockfish:
I'm afraid to start believing again. After what seems like an eternity of dsiapointment after so many years of contention, my broken heart isnt quite mended yet. They can be so good in these stretches, then be so bad in other stretches. Think about how open the West really is...the fricking Padres are in first, and have been for a while. How did they do it you ask? Great starting pitching, a huge park, shut down bullpen, and speed with timely hitting. Sounds like a formula doesn't it? They will fade, guaranteed. Too young, and there is no way they can win without ever scoring runs. This is the Giants division for the taking. I hope Sad Fat Panda lays of the fried pork rinds over the break, and turns back into super Panda again.
Posey is soooooooooo sick!
 
Dirty:
I think the division is Colorado’s or the Giants’ for the taking. The Giants need to stop playing like trash when they play in the division. I feel like the Dodgers and Rockies have torn the Giants’ guts out so many times the past few seasons that the Giants have no confidence when playing them. If they can learn to play better against the West they’ll come out on top.








I don’t care how long the Padres have held the division lead, I agree completely. They can’t continue to win this many games with their pitching staff. Their starters in particular have over pitched, like Garland. Also, they have some younger guys in the rotation that might have innings restrictions – Latos and Richard. Timely hitting isn’t really something that is sustainable, either. It has a lot to do with luck. The Giants have been terrible at it while the Padres have been terrific at it. That’s a good sign for the Giants.

Posey is SO sick.

You remember the SJ first baseman I mentioned – Brandon Belt? Well, the Giants did promote him just after the all-star break. He’s the only player hitting in that AA lineup (although NEAL has thankfully started to turn it around) – and he’s already hit 2 HR in like 5-6 games. I don’t know where the heck this kid came from, but I hope he keeps it up.

If the Giants can accept grabbing a right handed bat though they prefer a left handed bat, they should be looking at Josh Willingham. There’s a reason why he (and not Hart) is on the Rays’ radar. Now that would be a quality bat and pickup.

Bengie Molina Trade: Follow Up

The PTBNL was actually a former 1st round pick. The Rangers have a quality farm system and Baseball America had him as their 21st best prospect. He’s a right handed pitcher that was just promoted to Double A. So, they actually did get something for Molina, holy smokes. His name is Michael Main I think.

Anyway, Molina had some nice things to say along with the hurt feelings which were apparent. No shock there but he was a good Giant.

Rowand is leading off again and Torres sitting … what the heck is Bochy doing? Could he be showcasing Rowand to trade him– much in the way that Molina started two games in a row and sat Posey for both early this week? I hope there’s SOME explanation. I don’t care if Torres has cooled down and Rowand has started actually hitting the baseball again. Stay tuned …