When Spring Training rolled around and the bell rang for the start for the 2010 season – the year the Giants and many fans believed they would finally contend to the end and possibly see October baseball once more – there were two certainties that helped to propel that belief, which fanned oxygen on that fire. The Giants had one of the youngest and most dynamic young hitters in the league, the Kung Fu Panda, able to square up and drive balls that no hitter had any business swinging at. He was the switch hitting Vladimir Guerrero. His talent was undeniable, his sky the limit. Sure, he looked a little chubbier. But he’d also gotten contact lenses and goggles to play in! With improved vision, who knew what he could accomplish?! They also had the Freak, Lincecum. Lincecum was the darling of the National League. He’d just come off of two Cy Young awards in his first two full seasons, a feat that had never been accomplished in baseball history. What a difference four months can make.
The case of Tim Lincecum is one where a perceived weakness can become as debilitating as a real one. Lincecum’s numbers are that of a good starter, a very good starter even. He’s lead the league in strikeouts for most of the season. He hasn’t given up a ton of HR. His strikeout to walk ratio is still quite good around 3:1. He’s thrown a shutout. He has 11* wins (for those who are counting, despite the inefficiency of this beloved statistic). He has a 3.41 ERA, and it was just 3.15 prior to last night. But the sky is falling.
*He’s also been the victim of 4 blown saves in his starts
It’s not necessarily what he hasn’t accomplished this season that seems to have people worried. Rather, it’s quite possibly the series of unflattering firsts. Lincecum had never given up a lead of 3 runs or more in his young career. Check. He’d never walked 5 batters in a game. Check. In fact, he must have liked accomplishing that new feat so much he decided to do it in back to back…to back… to back games. He’d never given up four runs in the first inning. Check, did that last night. Not only had he never given up four runs in the first, he’d never come close. He gave up four total runs in the first inning in 2009 over 32 starts, just six in 2008. I don’t want to get into his dip in velocity – it’s been covered ad nauseam. But one thing people may not realize I believe is worth mentioning: his velocity this year is down LESS THAN 1 MPH from last year. You read that correctly.
The problem with Lincecum’s struggles is not the depth of them. It’s the psychological impact it has taken on both Lincecum and his adoring onlookers. Lincecum has never struggled in his career. Scratch that. Lincecum has never struggled in his life. What’s more, Giants fans have never seen the Freak struggle. It’s as if we as fans are witnessing Superman encounter Kryptonite for the first time, unbeknownst to the mythology. Keeping with the comic book theme, with great power comes great responsibility. The Freak has been tasked with the responsibility of reinvigorating the fans with his complete and utter brilliance, a task that is enormous for a just turned 26 year old kid that looks more apt to ask you for your email address at Borders than strike out behemoths like Adam Dunn. But oddly, if anyone can do it, he can.
Pablo Sandoval represents an actual weakness. His defense is suspect with diminishing range. What’s worse, it seems at times he more or less gives at bats away. He will take a fastball up in the zone down the middle for a strike, swing at a pitch in the dirt, and then tap a ball to an infielder for an easy putout. And if there happens to be a player on, the Giants will have extinguished two of the precious twenty-seven outs allotted each night, a theme far too common for the boys from China Basin this season.
After a torrid April, Pablo hasn’t broken a .700 OPS or .300 wOBA in any single month since. Pablo hit 25 HR and had a wOBA (weighted on base average) of .396 in 2009, which is approaching the absolute elite. His wOBA in 2010 is .305, well below average where a league average hitter should be in the .330 to .340 range. His ISO (isolated power) is down more than 100 points from 2009 – a metric which subtracts singles from slugging percentage to determine a player’s ability to hit for extra bases. His LD% (line drive percentage) is down about 10% from 18.6 to 16.7, replaced with an uptick in GB% (ground ball percentage) from 46.6 to 44.9. One might look at Pablo’s BABIP (batting average on balls in play) of .297 and automatically assume he’s simply regressed to the mean after posting a .350 in 2009 and .356 in his short 2008 stint, but that’s not necessarily true. Hitting them where they “ain’t” is Pablo’s game. He’s supposed to be a player that goes pole to pole with power and is incredibly difficult to pitch to and defend. Pablo’s never going to post a walk percentage of 10%, and quite frankly it’s a miracle he’s at 8% over the past two years.
Panda’s wOBA by Month:
March/April .437
May .256
June .283
July .265
August (thru 8/11) .302
If you take away his first month, he’s quite simply one of the absolute worse hitters in the National League. If you think he’s not killing the Giants offensively (and defensively); you’re out of your mind.
As for the rest of them…
A couple of weeks ago the Giants seemed to be pretty well set at the shortstop position as well. The current outlook isn’t so bright. Edgar Renteria has a strained bicep and may miss more time after sitting out over the weekend. Juan Uribe has been brilliant at times, and abysmal at others. The problem, however, is that he’s had a balky hammy for a while, and playing everyday at shortstop isn’t exactly going to be easy. So allow me to tally this up. The Giants are fielding a third baseman that’s been horrendous for over 3 months, have two banged up shortstops, a second baseman that doesn’t get on base and lately couldn’t hit his way out of a wet paper bag, and a first baseman that quite obviously isn’t an everyday Major League player. The Giants’ infield is an apparent weakness. Scratch that. The Giants’ infield is an ugly mess. And I got news for you: Emmanuel Burris is not the answer. He’s not particularly good defensively and if he’s never shown that he’s a great or even good offensive player in the minor leagues. What makes anyone think he’s going to become either in the Major leagues? The state of their infield may force Sabean’s hand with Brandon Belt. Unfortunately, he plays first base which isn’t necessarily where the Giants have an acute need.
Luckily, the Giants are currently fielding one of the most productive (and truly unexpected) outfields in the National League. Their left fielder is an important patience and power piece that they picked up off the scrap heap. Their center fielder is revelation, a journey man speedster that didn’t see a Major League yard for 3 seasons prior to 2009. And finally, their right fielder is putting up MVP type numbers while playing right field (at China Basin, no less) in a season in which everyone – including me – thought he had no business even playing first base. Again, what a difference four months can make.
The rotation is solid, the bullpen has tightened up and has a monster at the back end in Wilson, and they have quite possibly the best catcher in National League.
And that is why they call it… TORTURE!
Insightful baseball analysis for the casual crowd, Moneyball masses and you, the Third and King crew
Wednesday, August 11, 2010
Monday, August 9, 2010
Burris Up, Wellemeyer Down (For Good?)
Dirty:
I’ve been saying it for a while and finally the madness seems to have ended, at least momentarily. The Giants have inexplicably been lugging around 13 pitchers (8 relievers) for a really long time, leading to such ridiculous scenarios as Matt Cain pinch hitting in the 5th inning of ball games in non-bunt situations. The Giants are promoting Manny Burriss to take Wellemeyer’s spot. I think we may have finally rid ourselves of that Wellebum. Hopefully?!
I guess Rohlinger would have been another option but it’d been less than 10 days since he was last sent to AAA and that’s not allowed in non-injury situations. What about Matt Downs? We haven’t seen him up in a while and that sort of surprises me.
I’m not sold Burris can hit. In fact, I think there’s an awfully good chance he can’t. On the other hand, I think the upside has to be that the Giants are adding a player with speed. Their roster has an obvious and glaring deficiency of speed and perhaps it’s not a bad idea to make it a little more versatile this way. Time will tell, not to mention Manny can’t possibly hit worse than Sanchez is hitting right now, and at least he’s fast.
Friday, August 6, 2010
The Race Out West
What recently had me most concerned about the rest of the season for the Giants was not the (now) slim lead San Diego Padres currently have, not the acquisitions of Miguel Tejada and Ryan Ludwick, nor the dominance the Friars displayed against the Giants earlier this season. Instead, I’d looked across each of their remaining schedules and determined that somehow, the Padres seemed to be playing the Diamondbacks, Pirates or Astros every day for the rest of the season! How could this be? I set out to either confirm or disprove this belief, and much to my delight, it’s nowhere near as bad as I thought. In the words of Will Ferrel (as Harry Carey), I guess I’m just a worrier.
In reality, their schedules are extremely equitable. They will play precisely the same teams in almost precisely the same number of contests with only a couple of exceptions. For one, the Giants will have to play the Braves three more times while the Padres will get the Pirates for three more, and that’s the one and only departure in terms of teams played. That makes the series this weekend versus the Braves critical. Other than that, the Padres have thus far played 2 fewer games and thus will get the Brewers for an additional game and St. Louis for an additional game. Sans those exceptions, they’ll play the same schedule. The attached proves it.
So when you calculate each of the Giants and Padres opponents’ average run differentials (as of this morning, Aug 6), you get ~ +7 for the Giants and ~ -9 for the Padres, or roughly the difference between playing the Pirates or Braves. When you factor in the fact that the Giants will play 3 more home games than road games here on out while the Padres will play 3 fewer home games, this only helps to lessen whatever gap in strength of schedule that exists. This is good news Giants fans. With San Diego holding just a two game lead with a lot of baseball to go and 10 games remaining head to head, the Giants hold their own destiny. One has to believe that the final series of the year, Padres @ San Francisco on 1 October to 3 October, will be one to remember. And the consolation prize of this battle may well be the Wild Card.
Belt Update:
After going 3 for 5 with another HR last night, Brandon Belt is continuing his assault on minor league pitching. He’s certainly come back to earth after terrorizing the Eastern League initially, but he’s still producing fantastically. Belt has now amassed 34 doubles, 10 triples, 16 HR, and 20 stole bases while hitting .372 AVG, .471 OBP, .639 SLG, and 1.109 OPS through two levels thus far this season. He’s simply igniting the minor leagues and making a strong case for Minor League Player of the Year. He’s also said to be very slick around the bag at first and the Giants have even toyed around by putting him in the outfield a few games in AA. In fact, forget “toyed.” The Giants have been playing Belt in both left and right the past week giving creed to the notion that perhaps the Giants’ front office believes their plan B to David DeJesus this year is already in their system. It would seem he has the athleticism and arm – he pitched some at Texas – to play a corner OF spot. His rare combination of athleticism (10 triples, 20 stolen bags), power (16 blasts, .639 slugging) and patience (70 walks to 74 strikeouts) are rare for a first baseman. For this reason, without any setbacks, he seems destined to follow the Pablo Sandoval path to the majors. A dominant stretch in A-Advanced and AA, followed by a promotion straight to San Francisco come September. With every day he continues to rake he strengthens his case that he’s ready to contribute this year, and beyond. Come to think of it, the recent DFA’ing of Denny Bautista opened up a spot on the 40-man roster, and the Giants have yet to fill it.
In reality, their schedules are extremely equitable. They will play precisely the same teams in almost precisely the same number of contests with only a couple of exceptions. For one, the Giants will have to play the Braves three more times while the Padres will get the Pirates for three more, and that’s the one and only departure in terms of teams played. That makes the series this weekend versus the Braves critical. Other than that, the Padres have thus far played 2 fewer games and thus will get the Brewers for an additional game and St. Louis for an additional game. Sans those exceptions, they’ll play the same schedule. The attached proves it.
So when you calculate each of the Giants and Padres opponents’ average run differentials (as of this morning, Aug 6), you get ~ +7 for the Giants and ~ -9 for the Padres, or roughly the difference between playing the Pirates or Braves. When you factor in the fact that the Giants will play 3 more home games than road games here on out while the Padres will play 3 fewer home games, this only helps to lessen whatever gap in strength of schedule that exists. This is good news Giants fans. With San Diego holding just a two game lead with a lot of baseball to go and 10 games remaining head to head, the Giants hold their own destiny. One has to believe that the final series of the year, Padres @ San Francisco on 1 October to 3 October, will be one to remember. And the consolation prize of this battle may well be the Wild Card.
Belt Update:
After going 3 for 5 with another HR last night, Brandon Belt is continuing his assault on minor league pitching. He’s certainly come back to earth after terrorizing the Eastern League initially, but he’s still producing fantastically. Belt has now amassed 34 doubles, 10 triples, 16 HR, and 20 stole bases while hitting .372 AVG, .471 OBP, .639 SLG, and 1.109 OPS through two levels thus far this season. He’s simply igniting the minor leagues and making a strong case for Minor League Player of the Year. He’s also said to be very slick around the bag at first and the Giants have even toyed around by putting him in the outfield a few games in AA. In fact, forget “toyed.” The Giants have been playing Belt in both left and right the past week giving creed to the notion that perhaps the Giants’ front office believes their plan B to David DeJesus this year is already in their system. It would seem he has the athleticism and arm – he pitched some at Texas – to play a corner OF spot. His rare combination of athleticism (10 triples, 20 stolen bags), power (16 blasts, .639 slugging) and patience (70 walks to 74 strikeouts) are rare for a first baseman. For this reason, without any setbacks, he seems destined to follow the Pablo Sandoval path to the majors. A dominant stretch in A-Advanced and AA, followed by a promotion straight to San Francisco come September. With every day he continues to rake he strengthens his case that he’s ready to contribute this year, and beyond. Come to think of it, the recent DFA’ing of Denny Bautista opened up a spot on the 40-man roster, and the Giants have yet to fill it.
Thursday, August 5, 2010
(Probably) Inconsequential, frustrating
Yesterday’s game was pretty much a wash, because by all accounts Ubaldo was on his game. He probably wanted a little bit of revenge for the game in early July in which the Giants tagged him for 7. On that 7, by the way, the biggest blow was Ishikawa’s grand slam. Well, they showed that HR again yesterday. Not to taking anything away (well, maybe) but that was a Coors Field HR if I ever saw one. It looked like he popped it up behind second base and it barely cleared the fence. But I’ll take it!
Getting back to yesterday, there was a play that Bochy put on that has little defense, in my opinion. Bochy asked Burrel to steal second on back to back 3-2 pitches to Pablo Sandoval. On the first, Pablo fouled the pitch back which extended the AB. Kruk and Kuip mentioned how dead in the water Burrel would be if Pablo failed to make contact. Furthermore, that outcome is all the more likely with a strikeout pitcher on the mound. The next pitch came, Pablo swung and missed, and Iannetta gunned down Burrel like he was taking a slow stroll through the park to second base. Now I am all for trying to avoid hitting into double plays, but when the odds are stacked up against you with a strikeout pitcher and an extremely slow base runner, maybe it’s best not to kill possible rally’s this way. And anyone who knows Pablo has had difficulty catching up with blazing high fastballs should consider that as well.
Quick aside: A caller named “Regina” called Razor and Mr. T last night and wanted to know why the Giants play so poorly on midweek day games, she’d noticed. They pretty quickly dismissed her and went to commercial break, but I didn’t. I’ve noticed this trend as well; so much so, that I sometimes don’t even record the midweek day games because I know I’ll come home to a disappointing game, stomping or loss of some variety. How about the game early on where Lincecum was pulled while throwing a shutout and Wilson lost the game on a bloop single by Werth? How about the game last year where the ump blew the call and called Furcal safe, only to have Ethier ruin his win and shutout with a single – I can’t recall the outcome of the game. There was the game last year where the king-of-allowing-Rookie-walk offs, Bob Howry – I believe 3 of the 5 he gave up last year were of this variety – gave up a walk-off dinger in Cincinnati to Drew Stubbs. He could really pick his spots, couldn’t he? This could be ridiculous, but it seems they are terrible in daytime getaway games.
Getting back to yesterday, there was a play that Bochy put on that has little defense, in my opinion. Bochy asked Burrel to steal second on back to back 3-2 pitches to Pablo Sandoval. On the first, Pablo fouled the pitch back which extended the AB. Kruk and Kuip mentioned how dead in the water Burrel would be if Pablo failed to make contact. Furthermore, that outcome is all the more likely with a strikeout pitcher on the mound. The next pitch came, Pablo swung and missed, and Iannetta gunned down Burrel like he was taking a slow stroll through the park to second base. Now I am all for trying to avoid hitting into double plays, but when the odds are stacked up against you with a strikeout pitcher and an extremely slow base runner, maybe it’s best not to kill possible rally’s this way. And anyone who knows Pablo has had difficulty catching up with blazing high fastballs should consider that as well.
Quick aside: A caller named “Regina” called Razor and Mr. T last night and wanted to know why the Giants play so poorly on midweek day games, she’d noticed. They pretty quickly dismissed her and went to commercial break, but I didn’t. I’ve noticed this trend as well; so much so, that I sometimes don’t even record the midweek day games because I know I’ll come home to a disappointing game, stomping or loss of some variety. How about the game early on where Lincecum was pulled while throwing a shutout and Wilson lost the game on a bloop single by Werth? How about the game last year where the ump blew the call and called Furcal safe, only to have Ethier ruin his win and shutout with a single – I can’t recall the outcome of the game. There was the game last year where the king-of-allowing-Rookie-walk offs, Bob Howry – I believe 3 of the 5 he gave up last year were of this variety – gave up a walk-off dinger in Cincinnati to Drew Stubbs. He could really pick his spots, couldn’t he? This could be ridiculous, but it seems they are terrible in daytime getaway games.
Something Special
Rockfish:Can you think of a historic team with a starting 5 like we have right now? If I stick with just since I have been alive, these are the 5 that come to my mind, even though I know I'm probably missing a couple obvious choices.
(2003 Oakland A's) Barry Zito, Mark Mulder, Tm Hudson, Ted Lilly, Rich Harden
(2001 Arizona Diamond Backs) Randy Johnson, Curt Schilling, Brian Anderson, Robert Ellis, Albie Lopez
(1993 Atlanta Braves) John Smoltz, Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, Steve Avery, Phil Smith
(1986 New York Mets) Ron Darling, Dwight Gooden, Sid Fernandez, Bob Ojeda, Rick Aguilera
(2009 St. Louis Cardinals) Adam Wainwright, Joel Pineiro, Chris Carpenter, Todd Wellemeyer, Kyle Lohse
I grabbed stats from http://www.baseball-reference.com and ran a few numbers agianst our guys, and this is what I came up with.
If I thorow out Wellemeyer because he was a bum, based on averages so far, this staff...
- has the lowest ERA
- is tied for the 3rd youngest
- has the 2nd best strikeouts to walks ratio
- is tied for most Strikeouts per 9 innings
- has the lowest hits per 9 innings
- has the 2nd lowest WHIP
Pretty Outstanding right?
Now get this. If I project out to a full season, at the current rates, this staff...
- will have eaten up the third highest humber of innings
- will have the third highest number of strikeouts
- will have the 2nd lowest number of hits given up
I know this is a bit premature, doesnt include Wellemeyer,and Bumgarner has only started 7 games this year but it's still impressive none the less.
Dirty:
Nice work! I agree their rotation stacks up with some of the best ones we’ve recently seen. May I make a suggestion? I only fixed the first rotation (the Maddux one). You simply used averages to determine their totals but probably should have used weighted averages. Basically you gave 20% weight to everyone even though Maddux pitched 267 innings (and better innings) and Smith pitched just 90. If you want, you can apply what I did to all of the rotations and see how it comes out.
Dirty:
Added the changes to the other rotations too, then made revisions to where they rank… see below.
has third best ERA
- is tied for the 3rd youngest
- has the 4th best strikeouts to walks ratio
- is 2nd best for most Strikeouts per 9 Innings
- has the lowest hits per 9 innings
- is tied for 4th lowest WHIP
and that folks is why you leave stat analysis to the pros. Thanks for the edit.
What is Ryan Howard's Value? Paapfly vs.Phanatics
By PaapFly.com on Feb 26, 2010
James, Matt, Austin, Vollmer, Brad C – if you don’t like the content, go read the garbage the beat writers and mainstream media write. You scream and rant about how Howard is basically the greatest player ever, but provide no evidence. Utley is a far greater player, but you probably don’t understand that. His (Howards) accomplishments are inflated by ballpark, but most importantly, because he has a guy like Utley constantly on in front of him.
You sound precisely like the Yankees fans on the fangraphs, tigers thread yesterday. If you want to pretend it’s 1941, go ahead. Just don’t try and drag your ignorant beliefs into an intelligent baseball discussion.
By PaapFly.com on Feb 26, 2010
Hey Chris, pssst, RBI are meaningless. Don’t faint.
By AirBed Guy on Feb 26, 2010
Trading Howard makes sense if you can move Ibanez to first. He is the biggest defensive liability on the team, so the further you can get him away from the outfield, the better.
Trading Howard also makes sense if you can get a strong SS, C or 3B prospect in return, areas where the Phillies are sorely lacking.
This summer will truly establish his value and whether or not a deal is actually possible. The Padres are almost certain to move Gonzalez and Howard will have more value than Gonzalez. That said, what teams have the money to spend $20 mm a season on a 1B? Yankees, Red Sox, Angels, Mets, Dodgers, Giants, and White Sox. Yankees are set a 1b, and my guess is that the Phillies would prefer to trade Howard to an AL team so that eliminates the Dodgers, Mets and Giants, which leaves you the Red Sox, Angels and White Sox. Red Sox have already talked to the Padres about a trade. If that deal goes down, there will be a slim market for Howard.
By PaapFly.com on Feb 26, 2010
Howard has LESS value. He is way more expensive, and quite frankly, not nearly as good.
By MG on Feb 26, 2010
You are putting together one of the best Phils’ blogs out there. This was well-thought out with plenty of rationale justifications.
Only question is this – besides the huge public relations hit the Phils would take from trading Howard (likely most popular fan favorite after Utley) – What teams are going to be able to take on a $20M salary for a 1B and what effects will the impending FA of both Fielder and A. Gonzalez the following offseason have on Howard’s trade value?
Howard is a very good player and his power is very hard to replace but I just don’t know how much he brings in return with only a year left on his contract, limited places he could be traded to, and the impending FA of Fielder and A. Gonzalez the following season.
By John on Feb 26, 2010
Just keep them both and put the best team on the field… Stupid idea to trade Howard
By deebo on Feb 26, 2010
1B is infinitely easier to replace than RF. if howard can be traded to the BoSox for a SP and SS candidate the phils could sign dan uggla to play either 2B or 1B with utley manning the other. howard’s .270 BA and 200 k’s are the important stats. if you can surpass his OBP the HRs and RBI become less important because they get picked up by #5 and #6. the strikeouts don’t move any available runers along. get some prospects and let him go and be a freakshow in the AL. werth can slide into the cleanup spot, take hs 7 pitches each at bat and go 290/35/120 every year provided the leadoff guy has an OBP of .350 plus.
By Mike P on Feb 27, 2010
Bill,
I don’t necessarily agree with your analysis, but I can appreciate the detail and care that you employed to assemble it. As always, well done.
@Paapfly
I can understand that Howard benefits from having Utley in front of him, but let’s keep in mind that Werth also benefits from having Howard (and Utley) in front of him. How would he respond to losing this kind of protection? It’s hard to say.
My biggest problem with moving Howard is that the current Phillies lineup is centered around Howard in the 4th position. Moving Howard changes the pitches that Utley sees (with Howard behind him) and that Werth sees (with Howard in front of him). All things considered, I think that Howard is a more important piece of the lineup, and that the Phils could cope with losing Werth, while losing Howard would be crippling to the lineup. But, Bill, I certainly understand your logic.
Of course, I’m talking more about current stats and less about projected stats. That’s what makes this question so difficult. Nobody likes trying to predict the future.
In all, I think it’s an impossibly difficult decision, and I’m glad that I’m not the one who has to make it.
By Phrontiersman on Feb 27, 2010
Mike,
Can you point me in the direction of research that confirms how protection affects pitches seen and, as a result, batter performance?
By Michael N on Feb 27, 2010
Are we so use to Howard’s production that we think it can be easily be made up. No offense to Werth but keeping him at around 15mil a season while trading away Howard is just not the right move. I think we should be looking at somebody that would be willing to take on Ibanez contract then allocating that money to Howard and Werth to keep them here long term. Then we could move up Dom Brown to take over left or right and would then put up the best outfield defense in baseball. Boy how I wish we had sign Burrell for a year or 2 then we would be able to keep both of these players.
By chris on Feb 27, 2010
rbi’s are meaningless??? you just proved my point about how dumb stat geeks really are.
to your modern point dont make me laugh. you dont watch baseball, i was in the first row of everygme in the 2009 season and saw everypitch everyone faced. ryan howards value > than jayson werths.
why would the red sox do that trade for a sp and a ss and why the hell do you want dan uggla. you guys are idiots go to a game watch it and enjoy the season when yuo have both. but i know none of you will do that, instead of watching the game youll have your calculator out trying to figure out numbers that mean nothing.
“i could hit .400 too if i didnt swing for the fences.” _ruth
yea i know another player that thinks like that, and is the only player in the major to put up similar stats. Ryan howard
By chris on Feb 27, 2010
and why would chase utley go to first base when if he keeps playing he’ll be right there with jeff kent and rogers hornsby as the best 2bs of all time
By Mike P on Feb 27, 2010
@Phrontiersman
It’s true. I don’t have any stats to suggest that “protection” in a lineup or that hitting in a stronger lineup makes a significant difference in a hitter’s stats. In my response, I was trying to counter Paapfly’s point about Howard benefiting from hitting behind Utley by suggesting that Utley could also benefit from hitting in front of Howard or that Werth could benefit from hitting behind Howard. In doing so, I accepted his terms of the debate. I suppose one could have responded by questioning those terms and saying “What proof do you have that Howard’s stats are better because he hits behind Utley?”, but I didn’t feel like that would get us anywhere.
I guess the most scientific way to deal with this would be to examine Howard’s stats when Utley’s out of the lineup, but that would take far more time than I can afford to invest in baseball stats on a Saturday afternoon. Plus, given the relatively small sample size, I’m not sure how much it would tell us.
By derekcarstairs on Feb 27, 2010
Bill – What you are saying essentially is that the Phillies would have just as good a team by getting rid of Howard, shifting a couple of defensive positions and replacing Howard’s bat with an average 3B (maybe a Jhonny Peralta). When looked at this way, your suggestion is ludicrous.
I think the real problem here is misapplication of WAR. I think WAR is good at certain player comparisons, but such player comparisons are inadequate for lineup construction, identification of the synergistic effects of various player combinations, evaluation of complex player transactions or prediction of the results of baseball games (After all, the bottom line is winning baseball games, and the question before us is this: would the Phils win more games with Howard at 1B or Peralta at 3B?).
Just considering offense, I think it would be easy to put together a winning lineup in WAR terms by just selecting nine sluggers who strike out a lot. In real baseball, however, an ideal lineup could be formed with a split of guys with high OBP, low strikeouts and little power and other guys with high OPS. The first team would win a WAR contest on paper. The second team would win more actual games.
Let me drive my point home further with this snippet. We know that three consecutive solo homers is no better than two walks followed by a HR. Yet, in WAR terms, the former suggests a much better result than the latter.
Has anyone ever attempted to go over the performances of players in actual MLB games to compare the actual scores with what WAR would have produced? Or any other existing sabermetric measure? Has anyone ever attempted to incorporate the randomness of hitting events in measuring performance?
I am a believer in sabermetrics, Bill James and his descendants, but the science has many remaining unsolved problems. Sabermetrics is much more sophisticated than fantasy baseball, but much less so than the game itself.
By Bradley on Feb 27, 2010
why in the world would we trade a younger guy who produces 40+ hrs and 120+ rbis evry year over an older guy who produces 30+ hrs and 100+ rbis every year? i certainly don’t want to lose Werth, he’s a fantastic player, but cmon trade howard and we lose that big power lefty in our lineup that we need. plus this whole WAR thing is absolutely pathetic…. move polanco back to 2nd and utley to 1st???? cmon now
By derekcarstairs on Feb 27, 2010
Bill – I re-read your post and realize that your suggestion is not ludicrous since you assume either Werth or Howard will go. Sorry about my characterization. I do not agree, however, that it is inevitable that either will go. My first post here discusses that.
I also do not agree with your use of WAR to shape the Phils’ lineup for the reasons I set forth in my second post.
By PaapFly.com on Feb 28, 2010
Chris – I can’t speak for others, but I do watch baseball, as often as I can, in fact. RBI counts aren’t particularly useful for understanding a hitters utility, but that’s fine if you disagree. I’m sure you believe the good old W is the end all for pitchers too, good luck with that. Oh, and we use Excel, not a calculator.
By PaapFly.com on Feb 28, 2010
I was speaking mostly to Howards inflated numbers regarding RBI. Utley is on constantly and runs so well. He’s clearly the superior player to Howard. He’s prob the best 2B in the NL 5 straight years defensively. Also, his wOBA generally higher because he gets on more… What’s more, way better runner and mucher better contact percentage. Howards a good, borderline great hitter. Not taking away from him. It’s just people always highlight the RBI which is a mistake. His oppo power and overall power is legendary though. I’d need to see Werth at another home yard and for a year or 2 longer to really be sold on him… He’s a good player. I’m Just not sure he’s very very good overall just yet. Late bloomer for sure though… Like Utley.
The Top 25 San Francisco Giants Blogs
Repost: (http://www.22gigantes.com/2010/05/top-25-san-francisco-giants-blogs.html)
Lurkers unite!
Thanks to your continued loyalty and readership, 22gigantes.com has made steady progress since its debut six months ago and is quickly becoming one of the most popular Giants' blogs in the world!
According to Alexa (the industry leader for traffic rankings), 22gigantes.com is now up to number two among indy blogs with an average of 836 daily page views, behind Bay City Ball (1,113 daily page views). Bay Area Sports Guy (536), Giants Baseball Blog (536), and El Lefty Malo (497) round out the top five. I encourage you to visit as many as these blogs as possible. They're all pretty cool and written by knowledgeable Giants fans.
Also, check out some of the newcomers like Fire-Sabean, a hilarious site that pokes fun at Giants' management and gives away cool t-shirts, Big Time Timmy Jim by Matt Leland, an up-and-coming sports journalist, and Giants Midnight Replay, a site that uses screen shots from MLB.TV and a unique Neukom rating system to evaluate each game.
Here's the complete Top 25* as of May 20, 2010...
1) Bay City Ball, 1,113 daily page views, $100 estimated monthly ad revenue
2) 22gigantes, 836, $75.28
3) Bay Area Sports Guy, 536, $48.25
4)Giants Baseball Blog, 536, $48.24
5) El Lefty Malo, 497, $44.69
6) SF Giants Rumors, 479, $43.14
7) Extreme Giants, 401, $36.10
8) The Dodger Hater, 341, $30.69
9) Frisco Fastball, 340, $30.58
10) AZ Giants, 246, $22.17
11) Golden Gate Giants, 224, $20.20
12) Only Baseball Matters, 219, $19.67
13) Remember '51, 191, $17.18
14) Obsessive Giants Compulsive, 186, $16.78
15) Grizzlies Baseball, 174, $15.64
16) San Francisco Ball Scribe, 173, $15.53
17) Fire Sabean, 170, $15.34
18) Giants Win, 166, $14.91
19) Croix de Candlestick, 132, $11.84
20) Raising Matt Cain, 109, $9.82
21) Say Hey! Say Mays Field, 106, $9.54
22) The Cha Cha Bowl, 106, $9.50
23) Paap Fly, 81, $7.29
24) Standing on the Shoulders of Giants, 55, $4.93
25) Give 'Em Some Stankeye, 54, $4.86
*NOTE: For the sake of these rankings, I did not include "reference" sites like FanGraphs or Baseball-Reference.com -- whom I rely upon for all my stats -- or the "corporate sellout" sites like McCovey Chronicles (a subsidiary of the Daily Kos) and Andrew Baggarly's Extra Baggs, a fine blog but a publication of the mega San Jose Mercury News. Instead, my Top 25 is comprised of indy sites, run by sleepless, everyday hacks like me. As you can see by the estimated monthly ad revenue, blogging ain't exactly a get-rich-quick scheme. And I kind of like it that way. Source: haplog.com
Thanks to your continued loyalty and readership, 22gigantes.com has made steady progress since its debut six months ago and is quickly becoming one of the most popular Giants' blogs in the world!
According to Alexa (the industry leader for traffic rankings), 22gigantes.com is now up to number two among indy blogs with an average of 836 daily page views, behind Bay City Ball (1,113 daily page views). Bay Area Sports Guy (536), Giants Baseball Blog (536), and El Lefty Malo (497) round out the top five. I encourage you to visit as many as these blogs as possible. They're all pretty cool and written by knowledgeable Giants fans.
Also, check out some of the newcomers like Fire-Sabean, a hilarious site that pokes fun at Giants' management and gives away cool t-shirts, Big Time Timmy Jim by Matt Leland, an up-and-coming sports journalist, and Giants Midnight Replay, a site that uses screen shots from MLB.TV and a unique Neukom rating system to evaluate each game.
Here's the complete Top 25* as of May 20, 2010...
1) Bay City Ball, 1,113 daily page views, $100 estimated monthly ad revenue
2) 22gigantes, 836, $75.28
3) Bay Area Sports Guy, 536, $48.25
4)Giants Baseball Blog, 536, $48.24
5) El Lefty Malo, 497, $44.69
6) SF Giants Rumors, 479, $43.14
7) Extreme Giants, 401, $36.10
8) The Dodger Hater, 341, $30.69
9) Frisco Fastball, 340, $30.58
10) AZ Giants, 246, $22.17
11) Golden Gate Giants, 224, $20.20
12) Only Baseball Matters, 219, $19.67
13) Remember '51, 191, $17.18
14) Obsessive Giants Compulsive, 186, $16.78
15) Grizzlies Baseball, 174, $15.64
16) San Francisco Ball Scribe, 173, $15.53
17) Fire Sabean, 170, $15.34
18) Giants Win, 166, $14.91
19) Croix de Candlestick, 132, $11.84
20) Raising Matt Cain, 109, $9.82
21) Say Hey! Say Mays Field, 106, $9.54
22) The Cha Cha Bowl, 106, $9.50
23) Paap Fly, 81, $7.29
24) Standing on the Shoulders of Giants, 55, $4.93
25) Give 'Em Some Stankeye, 54, $4.86
*NOTE: For the sake of these rankings, I did not include "reference" sites like FanGraphs or Baseball-Reference.com -- whom I rely upon for all my stats -- or the "corporate sellout" sites like McCovey Chronicles (a subsidiary of the Daily Kos) and Andrew Baggarly's Extra Baggs, a fine blog but a publication of the mega San Jose Mercury News. Instead, my Top 25 is comprised of indy sites, run by sleepless, everyday hacks like me. As you can see by the estimated monthly ad revenue, blogging ain't exactly a get-rich-quick scheme. And I kind of like it that way. Source: haplog.com
Wednesday, August 4, 2010
Smart Move: Keeping Bumgarner & Sanchez
In my opinion – and I believe they said this on postgame live as well – last night was a shining example of why the Giants were smart not to trade Bumgarner or Sanchez for a hitter. The Giants’ 4th starter is capable of throwing no hitters and matching the Marichal feat of striking out 7 straight batters. 4th starters don’t do things like that, and his presence at the BACK of the rotation is worth A LOT more than Corey Hart. Did you read that the Brewers promptly locked him up for 3 years, $26 or so million? I’ve been wrong before, but I think they’ll come to regret that.
Bob:
Great job on the previously attached analysis. I couldn't agree more about not trading either south paw for a hitter. When a rotation is solid from 1-5, it's demoralizing for the opponents. No matter what, every day, every single effing day, the opponents have to face a guy who can make them look like Swiss cheese in the box, and they all go 6-7 innings of well pitched ball nearly every game. There is never a let up for the other team. Yeah, a lineup with a 3,4,5 that rakes has a similar effect, but not quite as dramatic. I've never routed for a team, been routing bay area my whole life, that I can remember being excited to see the starting pitcher every day. There was always at least 1 if not 2,3, or 4 lulls, right?
And seeing as how the giants have a strong lead-off hitter, a number 3 that is a league leader, a clean-up (albeit not the quintessential version) that is rookie of the year, and a few interchangeable 5-7-holers that can swing it, I'd say a hitter for either one of the lefties is way to expensive.
NL Positional Hierarchy?
Dirty:
1 – (Pitcher) Their Rotation (Lincecum, Zito, Cain, Sanchez and Bumgarner) is possibly the best in the NL, top to bottom. The bullpen is pretty quality with one of the best closers (in Wilson) in the NL, and MLB period.
2 – (Catcher) Buster Posey has quickly established himself as probably the first or second best overall catcher in the NL. His stiffest competition is Brian McCann but Posey is a better defender.
3 – (First) Aubrey Huff was considered to be a defensive liability and washed up slugger. He’s responded by, thus far, being the second best first baseman in the NL in 2010 – the position that Adrian Gonzalez, Prince Fielder and Mr. Pujols plays. Votto still has the edge in that illustrious group.
4 – (Second) Freddy Sanchez has really struggled with the bat, especially of late, but he’s played excellent defense and keeps his head down. He’s a streaky hitter that could get hot at any time. Prado, Dan Uggla and the injured Chase Utley are obviously ahead of him on the all-NL depth chart. There are likely others.
5 – (Third) Pablo Sandoval has likely been the most promising, yet disappointing player in 2010. A host of players in the NL are outplaying him including Zimmerman, Wright and Rolen. Pablo’s talent makes him a threat to go off at any time.
6 – (Shortstop) The Giants have not one but two shortstops that a lot of teams might replace their own with. Uribe has fantastic power at the position and plays ok defense. Renteria plays ok defense and despite having a complete inability to pull the ball, has gotten on base quite regularly and provided some of the biggest hits in 2010 (see 2 RBI triple versus Dodgers Sunday and game winning HR off Wagner in April). They aren’t Hanley Ramirez, but who is? Plus, he’s having a down year.
7 – (Left) DeRosa was supposed to patrol the graveyard Bonds left (no pun intended). Sabean learned wrists are tricky and he’s contributed zero in 2010, and I’m not optimistic for ’11. But, Huff has played there at times and not embarrassed himself terribly on defense while hitting. Burrel has been the mainstay since being picked up for peanuts after the Rays released him. It’s necessary to replace him with Schierholtz late, but his power bat and patience has been a nice addition to the formerly free swinging Giants. And the SJ native who grew up a Giants fan tore out the Bums hearts with an 8th inning two run blast Saturday.
8 – (Center) Best…Centerfielder…In…The...NL. That’s right – the 32 year old journeyman is the best centerfielder in the NL, and possibly MLB in 2010. He’s catching everything in sight, getting on base, stealing bases and hitting for pretty solid power with 33 doubles (2nd in NL) and 11 HR. His ability to track down fly balls and make the most difficult plays look simple may cost him a gold glove.
9 – (Right) The Giants were about to pluck DeJesus from the lowly Royals and place him in right before he injured his thumb, season ending style. That would have plugged the Giants’ biggest hole, gave them a solid #2 hitter, added some athleticism and improved their outfield defense. As it is, the Giants decided to roll the dice and keep their prospects. With Schierholtz playing solid defense and Rowand starting to show signs of life, they can mix and match and make it work. And the late inning defensive alignment of Rowand, Torres and Schierholtz isn’t going to let many balls drop.
What’s it all add up to? The best run differential in the NL. That’s right, as of August 4th the Giants have the best run differential in the NL and the second best record. They still trail the Padres by one game – held entirely in the loss column – but they are closing fast. The Giants’ key trade deadline acquisitions came much before the deadline when they moved Molina out and Posey in and Bumgarner cemented himself as the 5th starter. This team has got a chance at the wild card, division, pennant and who knows what else. It feels oh so good following the Barry Bonds hangover years.
1 – (Pitcher) Their Rotation (Lincecum, Zito, Cain, Sanchez and Bumgarner) is possibly the best in the NL, top to bottom. The bullpen is pretty quality with one of the best closers (in Wilson) in the NL, and MLB period.
2 – (Catcher) Buster Posey has quickly established himself as probably the first or second best overall catcher in the NL. His stiffest competition is Brian McCann but Posey is a better defender.
3 – (First) Aubrey Huff was considered to be a defensive liability and washed up slugger. He’s responded by, thus far, being the second best first baseman in the NL in 2010 – the position that Adrian Gonzalez, Prince Fielder and Mr. Pujols plays. Votto still has the edge in that illustrious group.
4 – (Second) Freddy Sanchez has really struggled with the bat, especially of late, but he’s played excellent defense and keeps his head down. He’s a streaky hitter that could get hot at any time. Prado, Dan Uggla and the injured Chase Utley are obviously ahead of him on the all-NL depth chart. There are likely others.
5 – (Third) Pablo Sandoval has likely been the most promising, yet disappointing player in 2010. A host of players in the NL are outplaying him including Zimmerman, Wright and Rolen. Pablo’s talent makes him a threat to go off at any time.
6 – (Shortstop) The Giants have not one but two shortstops that a lot of teams might replace their own with. Uribe has fantastic power at the position and plays ok defense. Renteria plays ok defense and despite having a complete inability to pull the ball, has gotten on base quite regularly and provided some of the biggest hits in 2010 (see 2 RBI triple versus Dodgers Sunday and game winning HR off Wagner in April). They aren’t Hanley Ramirez, but who is? Plus, he’s having a down year.
7 – (Left) DeRosa was supposed to patrol the graveyard Bonds left (no pun intended). Sabean learned wrists are tricky and he’s contributed zero in 2010, and I’m not optimistic for ’11. But, Huff has played there at times and not embarrassed himself terribly on defense while hitting. Burrel has been the mainstay since being picked up for peanuts after the Rays released him. It’s necessary to replace him with Schierholtz late, but his power bat and patience has been a nice addition to the formerly free swinging Giants. And the SJ native who grew up a Giants fan tore out the Bums hearts with an 8th inning two run blast Saturday.
8 – (Center) Best…Centerfielder…In…The...NL. That’s right – the 32 year old journeyman is the best centerfielder in the NL, and possibly MLB in 2010. He’s catching everything in sight, getting on base, stealing bases and hitting for pretty solid power with 33 doubles (2nd in NL) and 11 HR. His ability to track down fly balls and make the most difficult plays look simple may cost him a gold glove.
9 – (Right) The Giants were about to pluck DeJesus from the lowly Royals and place him in right before he injured his thumb, season ending style. That would have plugged the Giants’ biggest hole, gave them a solid #2 hitter, added some athleticism and improved their outfield defense. As it is, the Giants decided to roll the dice and keep their prospects. With Schierholtz playing solid defense and Rowand starting to show signs of life, they can mix and match and make it work. And the late inning defensive alignment of Rowand, Torres and Schierholtz isn’t going to let many balls drop.
What’s it all add up to? The best run differential in the NL. That’s right, as of August 4th the Giants have the best run differential in the NL and the second best record. They still trail the Padres by one game – held entirely in the loss column – but they are closing fast. The Giants’ key trade deadline acquisitions came much before the deadline when they moved Molina out and Posey in and Bumgarner cemented himself as the 5th starter. This team has got a chance at the wild card, division, pennant and who knows what else. It feels oh so good following the Barry Bonds hangover years.
Tuesday, August 3, 2010
The Rivalry: Better Than Ever (Continued)
Very well said. I felt exactly the same. After the sweep of the Dodgers, I think the giants have sealed their fate as being done for the year. Yeah I know it's way to early but they really put them in their place the last two series - even as close and emotional as they were. I'm sure the 2 new relief pitchers were obtained at too high a cost, but we did need a lefty and I don't really mind seeing Martinez go. Bowker on the other hand...well I really hoped that his ability to sting the ball was going to translate into something if SF. It never did though, maybe playing everyday in Pit will be his break. The front office feels like the Giants have a lot of OFs so he was the most expendable. That's probably true, right?
Dirty:
I’m not really ready to write-off the Dodgers as non-contenders just yet but they’re now 9 back of SD and 7 back of SF. That’s a lot of ground to make up. Colorado is 5.5 back of SF, 7.5 off the division pace so they’re closer but a ways out. The Giants need to play well in Colorado this time around – and I think they are finally ready to. I just read they took down the Mannywood sign at Dodger Stadium. They are saying that space has been for sale all year and it was sold to a radio station and that’s why it switched. But, I think there’s a really good chance the Dodgers close up shop and waiver trade Manny at some point. I think they’re tired of his DL stints and poor defense – they may be willing to move him in either case, contention or not.
They did pay too much for the lefty almost certainly, but I’m not really concerned about it. The real get for Pittsburg was probably Joe Martinez and not Bowker. Maybe Bowker can resurrect his career ala Garret Jones – the Pirates’ first baseman. I don’t know. His minor league numbers the past two seasons have been phenomenal, particularly his sudden ability to command the strike zone and draw walks. But – he’s had close to a full season of AB’s in the bigs and his OPS is under .700 career. On top of that, he’s not a particularly good outfielder and has a terrible arm. Martinez can probably fill out the Pirates’ rotation and perform capably. If not, he can certainly be a long man for them. He’s still young and has pretty good minor league numbers.
By the way – do you realize that Torres is probably the best overall OF in the NL this year, even by Bochy’s admission? He said that recently and I was kind of surprised because he’s constantly pushed over to RF when Rowand plays. More surprising, did you realize that Aubrey Huff is a legitimate MVP candidate? That’s not joke. He’s got the 2nd best OPS in the NL and his numbers are better than Pujols’ this year. He’s also played a decentish 1B, LF and RF for the Giants. Holy smokes!
Bob:
I did notice the two latter things as well. I was looking through stats the other day and realized Huff and Torres have absolutely blown all onlookers expectations to oblivion.
Dirty:
If his current trend continues, he deserves serious consideration for the award. The guy is playing 3 positions and has some of the best, if not the best, numbers in the league. This isn’t even considering that he’s doing it in a supposed graveyard for left handed hitters and in a lineup that isn’t exactly boiling over with protection. What may hurt him is the RBI’s. He’s not on the Reds, or the offensive power houses of the NL so the RBI numbers may not amount to something that’s digestible for the voters. It’s hard to believe that this is his very first pennant race in his veteran career – and maybe that gives him an edge.
His biggest competition is probably the other 1B around the league, Votto, Pujols and Adrian Gonzalez. I’m truly not seeing a lot of other competition out there.
Rockfish:
Quick reply, have a meeting in 5. I'm happy with the moves. I actually think the g-men did bowker a favor, beacause they like his work ethic, and he keeps his mouth shut. Unlike Frandsen and Lewis. He was behind too many OF's here, and didn't really have any chance to get consistent AB's. I wish him well.
Huff is a badass. I love his style, team spirit, and swagger. I can tell he's happy to be here, and I can admit I was wrong about him. When B-Sabe's picked him up, I was thinking it was another Garko/Durham/Alfonso type signing. He has been a shot of life. Note: no allstar consideration for either Torres or Huff. East coast bias. We would be nowhere without these two spark plugs.
Screw Manny. Can't stand him. Proffessionl hitter or not, he is a cancer, and a crappy fielder.
Dirty:
True true true. Anyone who says there isn’t an East Coast bias is off their rocker. Did you know that ESPN ranked the Giants 5th overall in their MLB Power Rankings this week? They’re behind the Yankees, Rays, Rangers and Padres only. That’s the highest they’ve been since 2003 or 2004, I think – certainly this late in the season!
Bob:
I loathe to credit Sabean for anything, but taking Huff's performance, Uribe's solid contributions, and Freddy Sanchez, it will be another contract for the boss man if they win the division. I know what you are thinking, these three guys were dice rolls that came up hot and we can't forget other snake eyes he's rolled with Giants money in the recent past and - I totally agree - I'm just saying he's going to have support if they win the division.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)