Giants trade that wasn't

There’s almost always something worth snipping from Baggarly’s Extra Baggs blog, and yesterday evening was no exception:

The Giants should consider themselves fortunate that the Mariners ultimately pulled out of a trade for right-hander David Aardsma at the July 31 deadline last year. The Giants didn’t end up needed Aardsma because Ramon Ramirez was so good. And now Aardsma is just getting rid of his crutches after hip surgery in January. I’m told the deal would’ve sent [Ehire] Adrianza to the Mariners, along with either Jason Stoffel, Eric Surkamp or both.

If this doesn’t make you shudder, then you don’t understand what you just read.

Trading for a reliever that has one good season under his belt, and who also is smack dab in the middle of the season following and showing his true colors, is not a good idea. Not when you’re including two of your top ten prospects in the deal. Stoffel is an interesting arm too, and sending all three would be inexplicable.

Neither Adrianza nor Surkamp are hot prospects, but each has a shot at contributing at the major league level. Adrianza may not ever hit enough to play every day, but his glove is ready to play at shortstop in the big leagues and pretty spectacularly. Surkamp, on the other hand, has done nothing but dominate in the lower levels and could blossom into a mid-rotation starter in a couple years. Valuable indeed.

Aardsma had a solid season in 2009 when he saved 38 games and threw 71.1 innings. He was worth 1.9 wins above replacement (WAR) according to FanGraphs. He struck out 10.09 batters per nine, but also walked 4.29 per nine. Thanks to a pretty low batting average on balls in play (BABiP) of .253 and a really low home run rate of 0.50 per nine (thanks also to a ridiculous 4.2% home run per fly ball rate – hello, Safeco), his ERA was 2.52.

Compare that to his career numbers where he’s missed a lot of bats (9.08 K/9) but also walked way too many (5.05 BB/9) and given up far more long balls (0.91 per nine with an 8.5% HR/FB rate). Sure enough, his numbers in 2010 were very close to these, a lot less so to his 2010. He doesn’t pound the zone and because of that, he’ll probably never be a great reliever.

But he was a “closer” and apparently Sabean had some lingering infatuation after trading him in 2005 to acquire LaTroy Hawkins. I don’t want to delve too deep into why he could have possibly believed the players mentioned by Baggarly were worth giving up for Aardsma. In fact, the more I think about it the more I’m compelled to believe Baggarly has bad information. Maybe he checked in with Jenkins’ source?

If not, God help us.

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I am almost certain you have also heard by now that Matt Cain has been shut down for a few days with “right elbow inflammation.” While this isn’t good news, it’s certainly not time to panic. And that’s exactly what Cain suggested: Don't panic.

I wrote all about this last night. About how we shouldn’t panic but we shouldn’t assume pitchers for the Giants will always be healthy simply because they have been lately. They’ve had a bit of luck, maybe some skill in keeping their pitchers healthy, and nothing more.

Pitchers get hurt. It’s what they do. One day you have Adam Wainwright penciled in opening day, the next he’s headed off to Tommy John surgery. One day you have the phenom with the golden arm, Stephen Strasburg, the next he’s headed off to Tommy John surgery. One day you have the luxury of complaining about you overpaid fifth starter… the next, well, you never know.

It’s a cold, cruel world for pitchers.

About my blog post “that I wrote all about last night”… Blogger ate it. Seriously, some really, really, really, wonky stuff started happening and I eventually had to delete the whole thing. Good times. It was up for about five minutes, I think, so to those one or two that read it: Lucky you!

Matt Cain: still not just lucky

First off, let’s clarify. I like FIP and xFIP, and think they are wonderful tools that perhaps don’t tell us what actually happened on the field, but how well most pitchers pitched and how well they will in the future.

Secondly, I don’t want anyone to get the impression I think Cain is great. It’s pretty clear I don’t think he’s lucky. Tim Lincecum and Felix Hernandez and Roy Halladay are great. Matt Cain is very good. There’s a lot of room to debate that, but neither party will truly win until we’ve seen what 2011, 2012 and 2013 look like for Cain. But anyway, what he’s not is Joe Blanton.

Dave Cameron provided a dissenting opinion and great analysis over at Fangraphs on the subject after my original post. Here’s what he did:

Below are 10 pitchers who, from 2002 to 2007, had the lowest HR/FB rates in baseball, who have thrown a similar number of innings to Cain, and have thrown at least 100 total innings in the last three seasons. The first section is their 2002-2007 IP and HR/FB rate, with the second section being their 2008-2010 IP and HR/FB rate.

 —CLIP—

Group: 11,351 IP, 8.6% HR/FB – 4,202 IP, 9.9% HR/FB

The league average HR/FB rate is uaually around 10.6%. As a group, the ten best big time home run suppressors from 2002 to 2007 were only marginally better than average at that same skill from 2008 to 2010. Sabathia and Zito bucked the trend and actually lowered their HR/FB rates over the last three seasons. So it’s certainly possible Cain could continue to post low HR/FB rates going forward. After all, he does pitch in a pretty good pitcher’s park and his career HR/FB rate is better than any of the pitchers in this sample, so maybe there is something to David Pinto’s theory about how his fastball moves.

Matt Cain ignores xFIP, again and again

Matt Cain is pretty darn good, I mean, right?

Bill at Crashburn Alley doesn't think so. He recently said Cain "... may be one of the most overrated pitchers in baseball (though you can’t fault him for pitching to the strengths of his home ballpark)..." Is this true? It wasn't just Crashburn Alley that brought about this post; Cain's worth is bandied about constantly, at least in my experience.

If we're to simply look at his FIP and xFIP, a lot of people would say Cain has been lucky. Really lucky. Boy, he's been lucky with that home rune rate, it must be because he pitches at AT&T. Boy, he's been lucky with his batting average on balls in play (BABiP). It must be because of spacious AT&T.

Cain made his debut in 2005, but his first full season didn't come until 2006, when he'd throw 190.2 innings. He'd arrived. All said and done, he posted a 3.5 WAR (Wins Above Replacement) and finished with a 4.15 ERA and 13 wins. His FIP (fielding independent pitching) was 3.96 but his xFIP (adjusted FIP that pushes the home run per fly ball (HR/FB) rate to league average) was just 4.54. Perhaps it was just beginners luck.

W: CAIN, L: Wilson, S: Washington; Giants up 2-0

As it turned out, the Giants handled the Rangers decisively on Thursday night, but that was only after the Rangers’ relief corps turned the bottom of the eighth into a full blown walk-a-thon. It started out inauspiciously enough, and it indeed looked as if the Giants’ pitch-black bearded closer would need to come out to The Rolling Stones’ “Paint it Black – well, if Andy Baggarly had his way anyway, he’d more likely come out to his usual House of Pain – to get three outs in the top of the ninth before the Rangers plated two to secure the win for the steady Matt Cain. Steady, not brilliant and not dominant if you ask Rob Neyer or probably more than a few sabermetricians anyway – more on this later. If not for Ron Washington deciding that saving his flame throwing left handed closer Neftali Feliz in case the Rangers not only tied the game in the ninth but went ahead creating a hypothetical save situation* for him, the story of the game would have been Matt “Big Sugar” Cain. And really, it still is.

*Washington’s use of his pen was truly inexcusable tonight, but it worked out to the Giants’ benefit so I won’t spend too much time on it. I will say that he’s become a bit of a punching bag in the statistical crowd, an honor he’s earned for deploying his relievers in an ever peculiar manner throughout the postseason, most notably not using his closer almost ever. There’s no evidence that the Rangers would have ever scored so, as Rob Neyer pointed out, it became a moot point. At least he got one decision right in Game 2, i.e. to not put the creaky Vlad in right field again which saved the Rangers at least twice on balls put into play by the Giants.

Though the final score was 9 to 0, the game was actually one of the real pitchers duels the Giants and their fans are accustomed to. The game was all zeroes for four innings, 1-0 for two innings and 2-0 for one inning to take us to the eighth. But after the Giants and Cain got their shutdown inning in the top half – with an assist from Javier Lopez continuing his dominant October by retiring Josh Hamilton – all hell broke loose. Well, not right away but soon thereafter. I’ll get to that.

In Cain’s seven and two-thirds of work, he gave up four hits, two walks (1 intentional to face the pitcher in a key situation) and struck out a mere two. He stuck with mostly three pitches on the night of the 98 he threw. He threw 53 four-seam fastballs (54%), 23 changeups (23%), 21 sliders (21%) and 1 curveball (1%). Like Lincecum, he opted to stay off the fastball in terms of how often he usually throws it – he’s thrown 66% heaters in his career. He stole first pitch strikes time and time again with both his changeup and especially his slider, while also mixing in the fastball which he had command of on both sides of the plate. You’ll see from the plot below that while he didn’t throw as many fastballs as he typically does, he didn’t stray from his strength. Cain is a high fastball type pitcher, and he’s effective that way. It’s the reason he’s a fly ball pitcher as opposed to inducing ground balls a plenty and why he’s so suited for AT&T Park.

PitchFX courtesy of Brooks Baseball

According to FOX’s beloved broadcasters McCarver and Buck, Ron Washington would say before the game that Matt Cain “has power, and we like power.” Well, Cain’s power fastball up in the zone certainly could have been a concern for him or could have had him contemplating a change in approach. But as the graph clearly shows, the unintimidated Cain delivered his heater in the upper half of the zone while largely keeping it on the corners, and kept his slider and changeup down and below the strike zone where each of those offerings are most effective. While Cain didn’t flash the swing and miss brilliance his teammate Tim “The Freak” did in his 14 strikeout, 31 swing and miss strikes gem against the Braves, he did evenly distribute 9 swing and miss strikes between all three of his pitches.

The one blemish on Cain’s evening – and it would become a real break rather than a blemish ultimately – was a fastball he left up and out over the plate that Ian Kinsler crushed to center. I can say with the utmost confidence that viewers won’t see so near a homerun (without actually being one) ever again. Even more incredible, it was the Catch-22 of near homeruns. The ball hit the very top of the padded center field wall with great force when the backspin of the ball which carried it so far in the first place returned it to the field. Talk about bitter sweet. Had the ball cleared the fence, the Rangers would have led 1-0. Instead, Cain – the bulldog he is – stranded Kinsler exactly where he stood at second in disbelief when he coaxed a lineout and two groundouts, snatching the momentum from the Rangers.

The Giants immediately capitalized on the captured momentum when Edgar Renteria connected on what was really a pretty good pitch, an up and in fastball which he deposited into the left field bleachers for a solo home run, igniting the crowd. And with the way Cain had been pitching and the misfortune that was the double by Kinsler, it must have felt like a grand slam. C.J. Wilson had been excellent otherwise, and truthfully, had pitched a lot like Cliff Lee was supposed to have. He dropped 0-0 curveballs in for strikes over and over and kept the Giants at bay for most of the night. For a pitcher with a reputation for spotty command he sure didn’t look the part.

Cain again got into some trouble in the sixth when he gave up back to back singles followed by a wild pitch to put runners on second and third with one out. But he got Cruz – who was having a rough night taking the only two punch outs from Cain – to foul out and Kinsler to fly out. After Cain threw down another 1-2-3 inning in the seventh he got the insurance run he coveted after Ross walked, the Giants chased Wilson with a blister, and Juan Uribe blooped him in with a single. Time was running out for Texas.

As I promised earlier, I will now describe the two-out nightmare that was the bottom of the eighth (for Texas) but a huge relief and rare chance to relax for San Franciscans. There was definitely some eighth inning weirdness in this one. But first, Daniel O’Day struck out Andres Torres and especially Freddy Sanchez in convincing fashion. Up came Buster Posey, who had looked lost in general at the plate thus far in the series. He was 0 for 3 to this point in the game with two strikeouts. The hardest contact he’d made was when his bat cleanly struck one of the green seats in the first few rows near the dugout after he’d wung his wood and struck out in parallel. Posey ended up showing the beauty of his approach by reaching out and poking a ball to center for a single, and though the Rangers didn’t know it yet, their doom had begun.

Washington went to left handed reliever (and young, baby faced) Derek Holland to get the lefty on lefty match-up he desired. Wash could just as easily had his closer warming considering the game was close and keeping the deficit at just two would be pivotal were a comeback to be staged in the ninth. But he didn’t. What unfolded to the delight of Giants fans must have been a dose of torture to Texans.

Holland was, in a huge understatement, erratic. Of the 13 pitches he threw, 12 were balls. That plated one, but there were still two outs and the Rangers’ closer was still available and rested. In came Mark Lowe by Washington’s choice. Lowe made it more interesting but ultimately walked in another before giving up a 3-2, back breaking, two run single to Edgar Renteria. Washington dug into his bag ‘o relievers once more and pulled out Michael Kirkman. Kirkman turned out to be the right man for the job, apparently, because he didn’t walk anyone and struck out Freddy Sanchez… after giving up a two run triple to pinch hitter Aaron Rowand and a double to Andres Torres. And as I mentioned, this all – every bit of it – occurred with two outs.

By this time Brian Wilson’s tattooed right arm had become as unnecessary as it was ice cold. Mota came in to log his first postseason inning and retired the Rangers in order to give the Giants the two to nothing lead in the series. The Giants fans erupted, celebrated, and most importantly felt one step closer to that which once was thought to be incomprehensible. But this team of random LEGO’s? ‘Fraid so, America.


More on Cain: A few paragraphs back, I eluded to the fact that many statistically inclined baseball onlookers think Cain is much luckier than he is dominant – Rob Neyer recently wrote about it. There’s a compelling school of thought among them, and in most cases I myself am among them, that a pitcher can only control three variables: homeruns, walks and strikeouts. Meaning, when a pitcher allows the ball to be put into play, he has no control over whether or not an out will be recorded. And so, a statistic exists – and which I myself use pretty often – called FIP or Fielding Independent Pitching. FIP is determined using walk rate, strikeout rate and homerun rate and is scaled to look like ERA or Earned Run Average, which everyone is familiar with. When a pitchers FIP is higher than his ERA, there’s evidence that the pitcher benefited from good defense and good luck, when FIP is lower than ERA the opposite. There’s overwhelming evidence this is true and FIP is a great predictor of future ERA. For example, I’ll confidently submit that Trevor Cahill of the A’s with the 2.97 ERA will not have an ERA below 3.00 next season. I’m so confident in that assertion that I bet a friend $20.

Well, Matt Cain has an ERA well below his FIP in 2010… and 2009, and 2008 and 2007. Over his career of roughly 1,100 innings, his career ERA (3.45) is approaching half a run better than his career FIP (3.84) because he’s done exceptionally well at holding batters to a poor average on balls put into play (BABiP). Cain’s is .274 in his career, much lower than the league average of around .300. I’ll leave it at this: the great debate is, does Cain have some magical, unexplainable ability to induce weak contact, when 99% of professional pitchers simply have no control over such things?

Such pitchers do exist, though they are rare. Tom Seaver was one and the active and brilliant Mariano Rivera another. And having watched Cain pitch from 21 years old to 26, I have no issue saying I believe he is among these magical few. I hope I’m right but at least a few more years are probably needed to confirm or obliterate my perception. It may well be my bias as a bleeding, die hard Giants fan coming through, but who can blame me?


To conclude this blog: After Cain’s similarly fantastic Game 3 win against the Phillies in the NLCS, irreplaceable Giants beat writer Andrew Baggarly said it better than anyone before him after Cain came off the bump following eight mesmerizing innings of shutout ball:

“And yes, Cain walked off. He didn’t leap or jog. He took no pleasure in the moment with a roundhouse punch or a fist pump or even a smile. He exited like a grim town sheriff after shooting the bad guys.


Then he simply gave a firm handshake to catcher Buster Posey, who waited for him at the rail with an admiration so palpable, the kid might as well have asked for an autograph.


The town was safe for another day.”

It seems beat writers can be swayed by “Big Sugar’s” romance, too.

Giants Crush Koufax's Equal - Lee - Take Game 1

The Paul Bunyan tales of Cliff Lee can now cease for at least the next few days as the lefty is bulletproof  in October no more (previously 7 and 0). The Yankees managed to take down the Phillies last year despite being beaten by Cliff Lee twice in the World Series, and now that the Giants vanquished the illustrious darling of the East Coast media, they won’t have to go that route. I posited in my 3 keys to the series that the Giants would put themselves in excellent position if they were able to defeat Lee even once. Check. They also passed the other two key tests of the series on this night with flying colors by keeping Hamilton at bay and the Rangers’ running game too.

*Speaking of those they’ve defeated, the Giants have now beaten Derek Lowe (2 x), Tim Hudson, Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt, Cole Hamels, Ryan Madson and Cliff Lee in these playoffs. They also beat Halladay, Oswalt (3 x), and Hamels in the regular season, as well as Ubaldo Jimenez, Josh Johnson, Clayton Kershaw, Matt Latos (2 x), R.A. Dickey and Adam Wainwright during the regular season. I’m just saying.

One thing that helped the Giants was the fact that the usually superb Lee was unusually wild. He wasn’t Jonathan Sanchez wild. But he walked a batter and so I guess he was wild for Cliff Lee. For one, he could not locate his curveball. Of the 104 pitches he threw, 11 were curves. That’s actually a couple more than he averages per start. That problem was, only 3 of 11 went for strikes. One was an excellent hammer that dispatched Burrell swinging in the second inning, but otherwise he was unable to locate the pitch. He also used the changeup sparingly– he only 5 threw of which 3 went for strikes – so perhaps he didn’t have a feel for it tonight. He threw his cutter more often than usual (30% of the time). That’s because it was about the only pitch he was able to consistently locate but the Giants hitters appeared ready for it, especially when it wasn’t located with the surgeon precision the world has become accustomed to after hearing McCarver and Buck drool over him for 4+ innings.

He threw 80% strikes in the fourth but labored while throwing 32 pitches and giving up two runs (1 earned as Michael Young did the Giants a huge favor by committing an error to start the inning). And that probably did a lot to undo him as he threw 29 more in the fifth while getting two-out-hit to death before ultimately being yanked for Darren O’Day – who is typically excellent against right handed hitters – who promptly gave up a mammoth three-run dinger to Juan Oooo-Ribe. When the ball landed in the bleachers, the crowd had reached a fever pitch that only 55 years of disappointment and a season of torture could create, and the Giants had opened up a six run advantage they would never relent. Lee’s strike percentage by inning was uncharacteristically low (62, 67, 66, 80, and 62). He got behind hitters more often than he usually does, and when he needed to make pitches he didn’t. He missed up and in with his fastball a few times when he was trying to plant it on the insider corner. And when he needed to come into the zone as he fell behind, he center-punched the zone a few times too many and the Giants punished him for it. And he left his curve up and away versus right handed hitters more than a couple of times, because as I said, he didn’t have a feel for the pitch, a pitch he often uses to freeze hitters for strike three.

Freddy Sanchez had an excellent evening. In his first at bat he swung at a perfectly placed down and away fastball, shattered his bat, and hustled into second with a double as it dumped just inside the foul line down the right field line. I guess that was a good sign for how the rest of his night would go. In the third, he doubled in a run down the left field line on a cutter that was down in the zone but caught too much of the middle of the plate. And in the fifth after the Giants did a wonderful job of wearing down Lee in the previous inning, Sanchez doubled in another – his third double, making him the first player in history to double in his first three World Series AB’s – this time on a fastball that Lee was trying to get in on Sanchez but got way too much plate and was up in the zone. Sanchez smoked it into the left-center gap for a clean, warning track two bagger. Freddy lined out hard to right field in his next AB against Alexi Ogando but he’d hit it on the screws again. For good measure, he finally scorched a slider that caught too much plate in his final at bat for another run scoring hit, this time a single with an advance on the error by Vladimir Guerrero, which brings us to our next topic.

The Rangers – Ron Washington, more specifically – went with Bad Vlad in right field. It turned out to be a really bad idea as he committed two errors and looked much like a wounded animal in the spacious AT&T outfield throughout the night. He let a “single” drop off the bat of Edgar Renteria – I say "single" with hesitance because an adept right fielder might have been able to actually snag the liner on a fly; this is something I saw more than once down the stretch with Jose Guillen manning right field – and to make matters worse, he let it fly right by him as he couldn’t reach down to retrieve it and Rent ended up on three for the other of his two errors. To say he didn’t look comfortable would be to say that that Donald Trump’s hair is comb-overish or that Keith Law is sometimes condescending. Something tells me Vlad won’t be in the lineup come Thursday.

The Giants managed to start the series off wonderfully despite the rocky start in the first two innings. Lincecum gave up 1 in the first and 1 in the second, though he wasn’t hit especially hard. He benefited from a nice double play by Juan Uribe to end the threat in the first with the bases juiced – that after he’d done something extremely boneheaded. He retrieved a weak groundball and had the runner between home and third dead to rights, but instead ran him back to the bag as if another Ranger would be there waiting and one would be tagged out. It was a clear case of Tim forgetting the situation. In the second, he gave a double to Lee – yes, the pitcher – on a butcher boy play before giving up a sacrifice fly to Elvis Andrus. The person that scored was the ever-speedy Bengie Molina – he received a nice and classy ovation from Giants fans during introductions – but his cause was helped on what could have been a close play if not for the truly atrocious throw from Torres, though Torres rewarded his manager for letting him start despite the relative ineffectiveness from his weak right side with a big double.

Lincecum left the game with two outs in the sixth having given up 8 hits, 4 runs and 2 walks while only striking out a very uncharacteristic and few 3. He didn’t look great early on but pitched well enough to win on this night. He did appear to be heading into a groove but it seems likely, though as grateful as he was for the 8 runs of support, that the two long offensive innings for the Giants in both the fourth and fifth extinguished what momentum he had. Perhaps having only thrown 93 pitches will be in his favor when he takes the mound again, should he need to of course.

The Rangers would never again be within four runs of the Giants. Both pens didn’t pitch particularly well but the Giants added on three more in the bottom of the eighth so it didn’t much matter. Wilson came in to get the final two outs in the ninth when neither Ramirez – who I am hoping Bochy sees for what he is by now – nor Affledt could close the door. Bochy wasn’t taking any risks and frankly I can’t blame him.

Tomorrow is Game 2 and it starts at the same time, i.e. 4:57. Matt Cain will oppose C.J. Wilson who I wrote a scouting report for yesterday. The Giants shouldn’t expect to get too much help from the Rangers tomorrow as far as errors – or errahs if you’re Dick Stockton – and should look to make their own breaks. Hopefully some other bats will join the fun and Freddy will stay hot as well as Huff who is really starting to swing the bat better. Furthermore, the Giants made a few snazzy plays tonight but also made a couple of mistakes – they’ll need to continue to do the former while limiting the latter. The Giants are just three wins from endearing themselves to The City forever, but they better play one game at a time. It all starts with pitching. Matt Cain, you’re up.

Cain Quiets Phillies

Charlie Manuel mentioned it in his postgame interview, and he was pretty much dead on. Cain threw fewer fastballs than he typically does and had sharp command (especially when absolutely necessary) despite walking three and hitting two batters. Cain threw just 51% fastballs according to the Brooks Baseball PitchFX tool, whereas he averaged 64% throughout the season. Cain replaced that -13% and threw more changeups which he threw 26% of the time (up from the season average of about 14%). Cain was spotting his fastball on both sides of the plate as well as moving it up down in the zone. Furthermore, he was able to throw quite a few changeups down in the zone and fading away from lefty handed batters like Chase Utley, whom he coaxed into a fly out and two ground outs. The result: seven shutout innings and zero runs with five punchouts. When Cain did miss, he missed out of the zone and rarely if ever out over the plate.
They said his nickname in high school was Big Daddy, but it was actually Big Sugar. We can chalk that up to one of the many, many mistakes in FOX’s broadcast, but I don’t have the time to list them all. I will say, though, that hearing Joe Buck ridicule the Phillies’ teenage batboy because he was wearing a titanium necklace was truly painful.

Cain now has thrown 14 innings, given up 9 hits and 5 walks and stuck out 11. Cain is not the sexy starter that Tim Lincecum is. He only strikes out about 7 batters per 9 innings but he’s been as steady as they come. Cain never had a sub par month in 2010 as his highest monthly ERA was 3.79. In fact, he’s only had a month over 4 once in the past two seasons, the only one coming in September and October of 2009 when he posted a 4.98, which is certainly good enough to win a few games if you’re pitching for a team that scores runs – see the Yankees.

Offensively, the Giants did a decent job at getting Cole Hamels to throw some pitches. They weren’t the Yankees, but they also weren’t the Giants of 2009 who seemed to average seeing less than ten pitches per inning. Burrell drew a huge walk in front of the red hot Cody Ross, who once again got the scoring started with a clutch two out single down the left field line. Cody had been punishing fastballs down and in but this time beat a pretty good pitch that was a fastball below the strike zone. Then Huff followed that up with his second RBI –my favorite stat – of the postseason with a single that glanced off of Utley’s glove into the three-four hole. Utley also let one go off his chest for an “RBI single” off the bat of Freddy Sanchez. It should have been an error and one can only hope he turns into Chase Conrad. The odds of that are about as good as me suddenly enjoying the FOX broadcast personalities.

The Giants won the game 3-0 and by more than one run for the first time this postseason. Charlie Manuel has already said Blanton will make the start tomorrow versus Madison Bumgarner, but you have to wonder if he has any tricks up his sleeve. Manuel has to at least consider going with Roy Halladay on three days rest for tomorrows 4:30 start.

Stats provided by Fangraphs

NLCS Game 3 Preview: Scouting Cole Hamels

The Giants didn’t play very well in game two, that’s clear. Mike Fontenot – who isn’t much of a third baseman on account of his weak arm and lack of experience there – showed in game two, well, that he isn’t much of a third baseman. He made an errant throw that came around to score* in the first. He also let a ball hit who knows how high in the air, slightly left to of the mound – which he called for – drop for a “hit”. Splendid work thus far.  John Miller said he looks a bit like Wolverine with his facial hair, and I’ll say his defense has been about as good as Hugh Jackman’s acting. But once again, in his defense, he’s only playing because the Giants’ regular third baseman and 2009 MVP candidate has been in a deep freeze all season long, and his defense hasn’t been much better than Fontenot’s.

*The runner scored on a bases loaded walk, but the “ball” four wasn’t much of a ball. In fact, it looked a heck of a lot like a strike. A large of theme of the series thus far has been the coin flip strike zone. It’s been about as inconsistent as can be.

All things considered, the Giants have to be pleased that they were 1-1 coming out of hostile** Philly when they took their flight back to San Francisco. They managed to get at a not so sharp Roy Halladay just enough in game one and Lincecum managed to pitch, while not brilliantly as he had in his previous start, but certainly well enough to win in the tiny Citizen’s Bank Park.

**Fix your teeth? How about Fix your genetics, Phillies fans. Oh crud, you can't. Carry on morons.

Looking forward to game three, the Giants will send righty Matt Cain to the hill opposing the Philly’s Cole Hamels. Hamels has been especially tough of late. I’ve given the rundown on Cain a few times (one being here), so I’ll focus on what to expect from the young lefty. He was their Ace until he found himself 3rd on the starter depth chart after acquiring Lee last year, then essentially swapping him for Halladay – although that’s not what they actually did – and then Oswalt.

The Giants are also likely to make some more drastic lineup changes for at least one of two reasons. For one – and they will without question for this reason – is that they’ll be facing a lefty for the first time in the postseason. I think it’s safe to assume that someone will be playing for Mike Fontenot because he’s 1) a lefty and 2) his defense stunk in game two. Bochy will make the change because that’s what managers are expected to do, and that’s what they typically do. The fact that a lefty is starting only gives him all the more reason to do it and to have more than enough justification to satisfy the media.

Bochy will have two options if Uribe is good to good – he’s having an MRI done on his ailing wrist today. His first option will be to put Uribe at third and leave Renteria at shortstop where he played in game two. His second option will be to give Pablo Sandoval another shot at third. Pablo hasn’t hit at all this season while batting right handed, but he’s been bitten badly by balls in play which I brought to light in a previous post: Pablo’s Lack of Lady Luck. Also, he had a nice AB against Ryan Madsen last night. Though, it was while hitting left handed.

Additionally, Bochy will have another decision to make because Andres Torres has been dreadful for a pretty significant period of time dating back to the regular season. Thus far in the postseason, in particular, his best shot at making contact has been when his butt hits the pine after another swinging strikeout. That’s harsh, but he is officially 3-25 with 12 strikeouts thus far in the playoffs. Whatever Bochy decides, this will be a blow to their defense because Torres flat out runs the ball down. And furthermore, Bochy’s likely alternative is 1) not as good a defender and 2) a terrible hitter, at least in 2010.  I’m talking about ex-Philly Aaron Rowand, of course.

In any event, I expect the series to continue to be tight – and despite the 6-1 final last night, that was a tight one too. Here’s what I can say about Hamels:

Don’t let Hamels’ 12-11 record fool you; he definitely deserved a lot better. He made 33 starts and threw 208.2 innings in the regular season. He struck out more than a batter per inning (9.10/ 9 IP) and walked a respectable 2.63 per 9, which was actually around ½ a batter per 9 more than his previous three seasons. This isn’t a big deal especially considering he was striking out batters at a much higher clip than he had since his rookie season.  Hamels is susceptible to the long ball and, as he has down throughout his career, gave up more than a HR per 9 IP (1.12).  He gave up a very average .296 on balls in play and finished with a 1.18 WHIP. Another area in which he improved was his ground ball rate. He’s been around 40% in his career but hiked that to 45.4% in 2010, likely because of a pitch he added to his arsenal and which I’ll discuss later. His ERA for the season was 3.06 and his FIP 3.67.  All in all, he was very solid despite the very near .500 record, which is as (truth) telling as when a politician opens his mouth.

As Dave Cameron of Fangraphs pointed out recently, quite a few pitchers have been adding a cutter to their repertoire and Hamels is among them. Despite having never thrown one in his career, he wasn’t shy at all with it and threw it 14.7% of the time in 2010 – I guess that’s one benefit of having Harry LeRoy Halladay as a rotation mate – at an average velocity of 89 MPH. This is impressive because Hamels wasn’t throwing his four-seam fastball that hard last October. Though I have not gotten the chance to watch him throw more than once or twice, I’d venture to guess it’s the cutter that has improved his ground ball rate. Everyone also seems to agree his velocity has returned, in fact the reports and data suggest he threw harder this season than he ever has (the average velocity is 92 MPH). He also continues to mix in a curveball which isn’t spectacular but is useful if he’s throwing it for a strike. And finally, Hamels still has the plus changeup that he’s known for. The velocity on the changeup is a very nice 10 MPH fewer than his heater and it’s his second most frequently used pitch.

I also went ahead and took a look at Hamels splits, only to discover that he’s been better against right handed hitters this season. This isn’t great news for the Giants who have a plethora of right handed bats in the lineup. Hamels has given up roughly the same number of long balls and struck out just as many right handed batters as left, but has walked half as many. He has benefited from “soft contact” or a .245 BABIP against left handed hitters. Huff would be smart to be patient against Hamels. The splits truly aren’t all that surprising because of Hamels’ plus change and the addition of his cutter. The changeup in particular is going to be more effective against right handed hitters, and given how good that pitch is, goes a long way to explain his success against right handed batters.

The Giants are reeling offensively.  Whether they shakeup the lineup a little or a lot, I can’t say, but getting a few of their bats going – guys like their cleanup hitter Buster Posey – would go a long way to helping the Giants regain the upper hand in the series. The game has a goofy 1:19 PM Pacific start time, so cut class, leave work early and enjoy the game! Teachers and Boss’ should understand…

All stats provided by Fangraphs

SF Giants borrow formula of Archrivals

So, I stayed mostly silent after the Giants finally dispatched the Braves in truly excruciating (and typical) fashion.  I did this more or less to bask in the excitement. I knew I had at least a few days to let the anxiety subside – a short reprieve from the torture. It’s truly incredible to believe, but the Giants are in somewhat unchartered territory here.

Since the Giants moved west to San Francisco in 1958, they’ve only been this deep or deeper in the playoffs five (5) other times. They made it to the World Series in 1962 and lost in seven to the Yankees. They made it to the League Championship Series in 1971 and lost to Clemente’s Pirates – this is when the baseball passion that burns in my father was ignited and eventually passed to me. They made it to the NLCS in 1987 and lost in seven (7), this time to the Cardinals. In 1989, they returned to the NLCS and beat Maddux’s Cubs to advance to the Bay Bridge Series. Their World Series ring hopes crumbled along with the entire city amidst the unforgettable Loma Prieta earthquake.  They returned to the NLCS in 2002 after winning the Wild Card and eliminating the Braves, and exacted their revenge on the Cardinals. But, once again, they would fail to finish (but succeed in tormenting their adoring fans) as they couldn’t hold on to a five run lead with eight outs to get in Game 6, eventually losing in seven to a young John Lackey.

                                                                     

What’s different about this team, however, is that their composition is decidedly different. When people typically think of the Giants, they think of sluggers and outstanding offensive players. People think of Mays, McCovey, Clark and Barry. This team doesn’t have a superstar everyday player. They thought they had one – and they may still – but he gained 30 pounds, lost his stroke, and found his way to the bench. Instead, their lineup is like a last minute Halloween costume – a pair of shorts from the Salvation Army, a construction vest, tool belt and hard hat from your dad, a fake mustache, and Caterpillar boots and voila, you’re The Village People construction worker! – It can turn out really great!

Their leadoff is a minor league journeyman turned igniter.  He’s got incredible speed, amazing ability in the center of the outfield and can hurt you with the long ball. Their two hitter is a scrappy second baseman they nabbed from the Pirates for a once hot (not so much any longer) prospect. It’s far too often pointed out he won a batting title, which seems like ages ago, as his greatest asset now is his ability to pick it at second. Their three hitter is (literally) a Plan C that nobody wanted. He found out what it felt like to win, played admirably defensively in three places, strapped on a red thing and has been Huff Daddy ever since. Their cleanup? He’s just a twenty-three year old with less than a full season of experience, and catching (and leading) the most electric staff in baseball. Their five hitter was dumped midseason by an already eliminated AL team* and picked up for league minimum. Their six hitter is a power hitting everyday shortstop that was supposed to be a utility man. Their seven hitter is likely going to be a utility type that’ll play third. He was plucked from the Cubs visiting clubhouse when they were in town, and just to provide depth in the infield. And finally, their eight hitter is an outfielder who can play all three spots and was picked up off waivers in August simply because the Giants were trying to block the Padres, who needed a centerfielder at the time. Oh, he was also the NLDS Most Valuable Player, were the award actually given.

*What’s also interesting is that they – the Rays – desperately needed a quality right handed bat to face off against the likes of the incredible Lee and the quality C.J. Wilson. They never replaced Burrell, and it ultimately was perhaps their undoing. In their defense, Burrell hadn’t done anything in the full season of AB’s they threw at him as their DH. Only when he went west and into the NL again did he turn back into the player they thought they signed, the powerful, patient ex-Philly.

The Giants, this time, are instead a throwback to the 1960’s Dodgers ( as well as the 1970’s A’s and 1990’s Braves). They have an electric starting staff and a solid bullpen. The four of their five starters that will likely pitch in this series –  Lincecum, Sanchez, Cain and Bumgarner –  are all homegrown.  Lincecum won the Golden Spikes award out of UW and was drafted 10^th overall in 2006. He arrived shortly after and has two Cy Young awards and 907 strikeouts in just 811 innings. Sanchez was drafted in the 27^th round of 2004. The Giants have been almost unreasonably patient with him, and his recent results are why. The Giants saw exactly what Kuiper said about him this morning , he’s a lefty with swing and miss stuff. They don’t grow on trees. Cain was drafted 25^th overall in 2002 out of a high school in Tennessee.  He’s as steady as they come, and never complains, not even when he has a career sub .500 record despite a mid-three ERA and a career WAR of nearly 20 (courtesy of fangraphs) at age 26. And the most recent addition, Madison Bumgarner, was drafted 10^th overall in 2007 out of a high school in North Carolina. He just won the clincher for the Giants on the road, in his first ever playoff appearance, at age 21.  He was the left handed version of Cain on draft day: a big kid, projectable, live fastball, ornery, but with better command. With these kinds of arms, the Giants have a bright future.

But the best news is this: the Giants are in. If the odds were even, and they’re not, they have a one in four shot at a parade down Market. Sure, the ESPN “experts,” all ten of them, picked the Phillies to win  the series. But we don’t care because we’re in. And, they play the games for a reason.

Giants' Starters Continue to Lead the Way

The story of this series so far is the Giants starting pitching and the clunky glove of the Braves second baseman, Brooks Conrad. Through three games in the series, the Giants have held the lead at the completion of 20 innings – out of a possible 29 – or 69% of the time. The Braves have had a lead at the completion of exactly 2 innings, and it’s been tied at innings end seven times. The main reason the Giants have dominated this series, though they’ve been dominating in spider web thin fashion – if there is such a thing – is the aforementioned starting pitching of the Giants.

Lincecum, Cain and now Jonathan Sanchez have been nothing short of breathtaking. Between them, they’ve tossed 23 innings, allowing 11 hits and 4 walks, and struck out 31. That’s good for a 0.65 WHIP and 12.13 K/9. To say they are carrying the load would be an extreme understatement, but a statement that’s been the theme in San Francisco for the past two seasons. The other theme and club motto they adopted – thanks to an early season proclamation by Kupier – is: Giants Baseball: Torture. What would a postseason series with this team involved be without it?

The series has been downright excruciating, and the bullpen utterly disappointing after a remarkable September. The Giants’ Frisbee slider tossing setup man, Sergio Romo, had given up two singles and a potential game winning, pinch hit homerun to Eric Hinske – who looks like a candidate for the World’s Strongest Man competition, by the way* – before recording an out in the series.  From what I’ve heard about the odds in Vegas, the likelihood that Bochy runs Romo out there again in a critical situation is somewhere in the neighborhood of Bobby Cox putting Brooks Conrad in as a defensive replacement.  The range of emotions I’ve been through in this series, even from just the 8^th through 9^th inning yesterday, has been astounding. 

*Just prior to his dramatic HR, I’d tweeted that it “looks like he eats Smart Car’s for breakfast.”

I also want to point out the fact that the Giants’ 9^th inning uprising on Sunday was fueled by something that happened two nights earlier, 2,500 miles away. Billy Wagner tore his oblique on Friday night at AT&T, ripping him from the NLDS, a potential NLCS, and possibly ending his career. The Braves managed to cobble together a win that night despite their enormous loss. They did this with a mid-July, Dayton Moore (The Brilliant) aided, desperation acquisition of a near replacement level outfielder – who, strangely, was also a former phenom pitcher – a shaky reliever who was greatly aided by a gutsy double play started at third by an at best first baseman, and finally a few sprinkles of pixie dust. The Giants’ comeback on Sunday would have been far less probable versus the experienced and formidable Wagner.  For example, the Giants may have went with Aaron Rowand against the lefty instead of Ishikawa – who scored the tying run – against Kimbrel. Enough said, right?


Game 1: Lead – Giants 6, Tied 3, Braves 0
Lincecum: 9 IP, 2 hits, 0 R 1 BB, 14 K
Conrad: 1 error, resulting in 0 runs**


Game 2: Lead – Giants 7, Tied 3, Braves 1
Cain: 6.1, 7 hits, 0 ER, 2 BB, 6 K
Conrad: 0 errors


Game 3: Lead – Giants 7, Tied 1, Braves 1
Sanchez: 7.1 IP, 2 hits***, 1 ER (on Romo HR), 1 BB, 11 K
Conrad: 3 errors, resulting in 2 runs – one of which was game winning


**Don’t be fooled by the fact that this error didn’t “cost” the Braves a run. Not every error costs the same, but they all cost something. And what each of them cost, at a minimum, is pitches – stressful pitches.  This isn’t to be underestimated when these guys who have been ridden for 200+ innings, and are now being asked to go on short rest


***Sanchez’ first hit given up came on a single off the bat of Braves starter Tim Hudson. Noteworthy, however, is that it came directly after back to back questionable non-strike calls. Paul Emmel – who was behind the plate – was pretty inconsistent, if not horrible, throughout the game.


Tweets of the series, so far:


Damon Bruce: Can the NLDS MVP go to the frying pan Brooks Conrad brings out to second base with him? The biggest impact of the series so far, right?****


Andy Baggarly: Your winning pitcher: Sergio Romo. What’s this about wins being an arbitrary stat?


****This tweet came before the 9^th inning error that finally sunk the Braves Sunday


GAME 4: Madison Bumgarner versus Derek Lowe @ 4:37 PDT


There’s a lot to like going into today. The Giants need to win one of the next two to advance.  They will look for their rookie left hander, Madison Bumgarner, to continue to exhibit the fearlessness he has thus far in his young career.  He’s pitched extremely well on the road this season.  Bumgarner is going on extra rest and Lowe is going on short rest.  Most would automatically assume this would dramatically tip the scale for the Giants.  That might be fair, but it could just as easily go against them.


Bumgarner is already going to have the extra adrenaline going for several reasons.  The 21 year old will be making his playoff debut and will be pitching relatively close to his home in North Carolina. His key is to not allow the extra rest and ample amounts of pumping adrenaline propel his fastball to the upper portion of the strike zone.  He just has to find a way to harness his emotions. My scouting report on Bumgarner can be read a few posts back comparing him to Zito: Game 4 Starter…


Lowe will be pitching on short rest, but that’s not a terrible thing for the Braves.  Lowe is a sinker baller, and sometimes less rest is better for these types of pitchers. The heavy arm can often have the affect of assisting the sinker ball pitcher to keep the ball down in the zone more easily. A huge key is for the Giants to lay off assortment of stuff Lowe will be teasing them with in the bottom of the zone.


This series has been extremely tight.  I expect nothing less today. It would behoove the Giants to finish the Braves off and avoid a game 5 in San Francisco. They can set up their rotation for the NLCS versus the rolling Phillies – and pitch Lincecum three times instead of twice. Also, you never know what can happen in a game five, play in game.