Tim Lincecum's evolving repertoire

In case you haven't stumbled upon it yet -- it was linked by Rob Neyer on Friday and I also introduced it at Bay City Ball last Tuesday -- I wrote about Tim Lincecum's awesome slider and improved fastball at the Hardball Times:

At the end of the 2010 season, Cain taught Lincecum a new slider grip, his slider grip—it’s been a pretty excellent pitch for Cain in his career. He began using it on Sept. 12, and the results were awesome. Since he began throwing that pitch, including the playoffs and his first two 2011 starts, he’s thrown 78 innings with a strikeout rate of 10.73, a walk rate of 2.19 (K/BB ratio of 4.90) and a 1.85 ERA. He’s simply been better than ever, and half of those starts came against playoff teams in the NLDS, NLCS and World Series.

Go check it out.

Lincecum's Opening Day velocity

Tim Lincecum didn't have either his best changeup or best slider last night, but he got by, despite the defense behind him playing terrible.

His line was seven innings, five hits, three walks, five strikeouts and one unearned run. He took the loss. It was understandable, though, as Clayton Kershaw wasn't just better, he was brilliant. With the shadows and glare masking his pitches in the early going, it was no wonder he was sending the Giants' hitters back to the dugout shaking their heads. He outpitched the Giants' ace.

But if there was one thing specifically that was encouraging -- aside from Brandon Belt's impressive debut -- it was that Lincecum's velocity was both quality and steady. According to the PITCHf/x tool from Brooks Baseball, Tim threw 57 fastballs (40 four-seam, 17 two-seam). His four-seam heater averaged 93 mph and he topped out at 95. His two-seam fastball averaged just over 93 mph and topped out at 94.7. More impressive than that, it hardly waned even into the seventh inning:

Pulled from here.

Compare that to his velocity on Opening Day 2010:

Pulled from here.

From the very first start of 2010, he showed an inability to maintain velocity throughout the game. Lincecum will probably never be a high-90s power arm again. But hopefully, with an apparent commitment to conditioning, Lincecum will be able to maintain above-average fastball speed with his devastating changeup and the nasty slider he rolled out in September and rode to a World Championship in October and November.
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I wrote about Santiago Casilla yesterday at Bay City Ball. My thoughts on his spring (and day) were far less encouraging.

Tim Lincecum, FIP and fungible roster spots

This spring, many clubs will make roster determinations based on how well players play, how well a particular pitcher pitches. This invariably happens every March. I won’t say it’s a fool’s errand – though it almost certainly is one – for the simple reason that it ultimately doesn’t matter. Stick with me for a minute.

Jeff Fletcher suggested to Marty Lurie today that Barry Zito was in the top-third of fifth starters in baseball. To which Marty replied, via Twitter: “I’ll have to look up that list and talk about it tonite [sic].” He shouldn’t have to look anything up because Jeff’s right. And that’s exactly why it doesn’t really matter which team picks what warm body to start fifth. Because that's all these teams are really looking for, or at least expecting to settle for.

GM: Does he have a pulse?
Scout: 60 beats per minute.

GM: Is his arm still attached?
Scout: As far as I can tell.
GM: Would he consider starting in Triple-A?
Scout: Maybe.
GM: I'm sold. Let's sign him. Seems like a front-runner.

Every single season the majority of teams break camp by selecting a fifth starter. Every single season they choose from a stable of guys that they really don’t want pitching for them, but they have no choice. They’re usually a handful of replacement starters, non-roster invitees, or whatever. This is because, contrary to what you may have thought previously, most major league teams don’t really have a steady fifth starter. The secret is out. What’s more, whoever they chose, by May or June that player will be swapped out for some other replacement starter that’s going to pitch about as well (read: Poorly). The cycle goes on and on.

The Giants don’t have this problem because they’re paying some guy a total sum of $126 million to be their fifth starter. A little steep, sure, but boy they must feel ahead of the curve having that fifth starter picked out an all. And so early. This is why I know Zito, with all his flaws and everything that’s said about him, is in the top third of fifth starters in baseball. It’s really not all that difficult to be better than a bunch of four-A nobodies that are being swapped out like tires in a NASCAR race.

Clubs will do this with position players too, and still it won’t matter much. These are fringe players that are being decided on, after all. It’s not like if Travis Ishikawa leads the Cactus League in home runs again anyone thinks he’s going to be the next Will Clark. But he might make the roster and the point still stands.

So, as meaningless as these decisions are, I’m going to give you a taste of why you probably shouldn’t be making much of a fuss when a minor league invitee starts tearing the cover off the ball or your favorite player can’t hit or pitch his way out of a wet paper bag all spring. Or why, when Todd Wellemeyer pitched as well as any of the Giants last spring, you shouldn’t have expected it to continue. So here goes.

Lincecum not complacent

There should be quite a few exciting storylines in Giants camp this spring and that’s leaving aside the most obvious one: it’s their first as defending champs (as San Francisco Giants). One of the most exciting among them will be the progress of a promising young first baseman named Brandon Belt. I say first baseman knowing that his road to the big leagues might be left field, though if I had my way, given the plus first baseman that he is, I might stick him at first and push Aubrey Huff to left. If you have not heard of Belt yet… where have you been?

Another story that’s likely to get plenty of play is that of the husky third baseman, Pablo Sandoval. Panda has been snapping pictures of himself all winter and showing off his slimmer figure; this is wonderful news for Giants fans to be sure. Whether or not that translates into on-field results remains to be seen. My gut feeling is that he is going to have a big year and will once again be a serviceable third baseman defensively. I won’t say a .330 average and near .400 weight on-base average (wOBA) is necessarily in the cards, but I think it’s a safe bet he recaptures some of that promise he catapulted onto the seen with in 2008 and 2009.

After the jump, here’s my favorite piece of info from camp so far, via Extra Baggs:

The Road to Lincecum's 3rd Cy Young

The Giants have the type of rotation that GM’s and managers dream about. They have Cain, Sanchez, now Bumgarner and Zito – a roughly a league average pitcher, which is so critical to a contender as was so poignantly pointed out recently by King Kaufman. Finally they have Tim Lincecum, easily the most talented arm in the rotation to say the least, despite being a pony in a stable of stallions. More accurately, Tim Lincecum is one of the most talented – not to mention absolutely exhilarating to watch – pitchers in baseball now, recently and perhaps ever.

So let us get on with this business of: Can he win his third Cy in 2011? But first, we must start at the beginning. Lincecum came into the league in 2007 after forging a swath in the minor leagues that would make Sherman blush. He was somewhat rudely greeted by the Phillies’ Shane Victorino and Ryan Howard, but then he got the most recent laugh. He made 24 starts and pitched extremely effectively, winning 7 games, throwing 146.1 innings and striking out greater than a batter per inning while walking four per nine. He was still just getting his feet on the ground, and yet he was worth 3.2 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) in roughly three-fourths of a season.

Over the next two seasons, he was a force to be reckoned with. He would combine to win 33 games in 66 starts in 452.1 innings, while walking around three per nine and striking out well over ten per nine. He was also relenting home runs at a rate of just .42 per nine innings. In 2008 he finished with a 2.62 ERA, an identical 2.62 FIP and 7.5 WAR. In 2009 he finished with a 2.48 ERA, a 2.34 FIP and 8.2 WAR. For his outstanding effort, he took home the ultimate hardware for a pitcher in each season, i.e. the Cy Young award.

In 2010, he struggled and people panicked, a lot. When all was said and done after the regular season, he’d won 16 games in 33 starts over 212.1 innings, hardly a disaster. He’d also, again, struck out well over a batter per inning while walking 3.22 (for a ratio of 3.04). His home run rate did increase to .76 per nine but it was far from poor. He finished with a 3.43 ERA, a 3.15 FIP and a still outstanding 5.1 WAR. He was far from broken, but so it goes when you win back-to-back Cy Young awards in your first two full seasons. So what happened?

In March and April he pitched brilliantly and everyone was sure he’d win another Cy Young. In May he inexplicably completely lost his control and walked nearly six batters per nine innings. In June he went back to doing what he does and pitched great. In July he stopped striking batters out in quite the droves but walked fewer and pitched great; he was doing what he does, mostly. In August the stuff hit the fan. He once again was striking batters out, but he just wasn’t getting the results. He walked nearly five per nine, which was up but certainly not alarming in a small sample. But something else happened. His home run per fly ball rate skyrocketed to 17.8% and he gave up nearly two home runs per nine. Exacerbating matters, the diminutive ace gave up nearly a .400 average on balls in play, an unusually high number not likely to recur given his .308 career mark. Talk radio lost it, the sky was falling and the Freak was ordinary, no bad. But in September and October, the decorated competitor returned and he again pitched as brilliantly as he had in April, no more brilliantly. He surged. He struck out greater than eleven per nine, walked 1.73 for a ratio or 6.50, his ERA was 1.94 and his FIP 2.17.

He’d rebounded in mesmerizing fashion, going 4-1 in the playoffs behind a few decent starts and two truly brilliant ones – his Game 1 NLDS, 14-strikeout, 31-swing-and-miss start in particular – and the Giants won the World Series. It’s safe to say a handful believed he was back, while others, if not outwardly, wondered: who is now the real Tim Lincecum?

Over his career, he’s won 56 games in 123 games and 811 innings. He’s had an ERA of 3.04 and a FIP of 2.86. With peripherals, he’s been brilliant; he has struck out 10.07 batters per nine while walking 3.25 (ratio of 3.1), and given up just .57 home runs per nine. He’s casting a career that ends in Cooperstown, racking up 24 Wins Above Replacement in fewer than four seasons.

So what happened in May and August of 2010? The simplest answer may be that these things just happen. And, it may be the correct one too. Oddly enough, in some ways he improved in 2010, giving fuel to the argument that he 1) struggled with control for whatever reason at times and 2) was simply unlucky other times. After all, his line drive rate (LD%) was right in line with his career (19%) at 19.5% in 2010, and in between the 20.8% and 19.2% he posted in his two Cy Young seasons. Even better, his ground ball rate (GB%) improved to a career high of 48.9%, up from 47.9 in ’09 and 43.9 in ’08. And finally, his fly ball rate (FB%) decreased, again, which it has in every season, from 37.5, to 35.3, to 33.3 to 31.6 in 2010. These are all indicators that would actually portend better results. His home run per fly ball rate (HR/FB) did increase to 9.9% but there’s no reason to conclude this is permanent given his resume.

And with all the evidence that Tim Lincecum is likely poised to rebound, there’s more. Much of the hullabaloo surrounding Lincecum in 2010 revolved around his diminished fastball velocity. While real, it’s not something that, in my mind, is going to either cripple or doom him. Furthermore, there’s reason to believe it will improve.

The above chart comes from Fangraphs’ Pitch F/X data. It’s clear to see that his fastball velocity has fallen from its peak in 2008. But if you look at around midseason in 2010 – this is the middle of the far right pink area – you’ll see that it peaked and then dropped precipitously over several starts. After which, you’ll see that it steadily and over time substantially increased over the rest of the season, creating a trough from midseason until seasons end. Many Giants fans will recall that Lincecum redoubled his conditioning efforts after a meeting with Bochy, as well as after a quote came out from Roy Oswalt about his own conditioning, and how pivotal it’s been to him to stabilize his plus velocity throughout his career, especially give his small stature. Lincecum was apparently listening, and I think the results were evident. You, the reader(s), can make your own determination.

There’s more. In a post just before the Game 1 NLCS matchup between Lincecum and Roy Halladay, I mentioned that he was taught a new slider grip by Matt Cain before a game against San Diego on September 12. Well, there’s substance to this rumor as well.

The above chart shows Lincecum’s slider velocity in his career. You’ll see that it has been pretty sporadic at times, and never was it more so than throughout 2010. More often than not, it was below 85 MPH if not well below, while at other times, it was above 85 and sometimes well above it. This is when it was not a refined or go-to-pitch for him, and when thrown particularly hard I believe it was behaving as a cutter. Take a look at the final four green dots in the far right pink area. You can see that he began throwing his slider in the 85-86 MPH range with consistency. The first of the four dots represents September 12, and the remaining three represent September 18, 24 and 29. Whatever Cain taught him, he was using – just ask the Braves who faced him in Game 1 of the NLDS.

In addition to the slider coming in harder, it was moving differently, too.

 Both of the above come from his September 24 start against the Rockies. During which, I myself was driving with friends to Big Sur for a glorious weekend of camping while listening to the game, and enjoying every decibel of it. You MUST go sometime. The left side shows both the vertical and horizontal movement of the pitch, and the right side shows the vertical movement and velocity. What we can see, is that he’s throwing the pitch about 86 MPH on average, while also getting both downward and right to left movement. This is devastating to a right handed hitter – please ask Aaron Rowand – and can also be effective in slipping a pitch under a lefties bat – please ask Nate Schierholtz, or perhaps every left-handed hitter who has emerged from the Giants’ farm system; I hope Brandon Belt doesn’t suffer the same fate. Lincecum threw eight innings, struck out nine and walked none in this masterful outing in Colorado.

Now here’s one from August 5, 2010, the month of the heart of his struggles and a game which he gave up two home runs, including a game winning one to Eric Hinske.

You should notice a few things. Most obvious is the fact that he’s throwing far fewer sliders. Also, you can see that the average velocity is closer to 82 MPH or less, and no slider approaches 85. Lastly and least obviously, you can see that his getting less vertical movement, which means the ball is going downward or falling less. This is one example, and I encourage you to numb your mind by looking at more of his games by going to his Fangraphs page > Pitch F/X > Game Charts. What I think you’ll discover is that his slider was more of an afterthought than a go-to pitch in his career. It was sometimes harder and more like a cutter. It was other times slower and perhaps more slurvy as opposed to having sharp bite. This is clearly not the same pitch it was in September.

Let’s look at another:

This one actually belongs to Matt Cain when on September 26, 2010, he threw a nine inning complete game and struck out nine while walking one. Like in Tim’s example, you’ll see he’s throwing the pitch with both horizontal (right to left) movement and vertical action (downward bite). Also, he’s throwing the pitch at about the same speed as Lincecum was, or around 86 MPH. This is an example of when Cain’s at his best. When he’s got that slider going, he strikes batters out and is very tough. But, if you look back up at Lincecum’s September 24th game, you’ll see that Tim is actually getting much more downward bite more often than not. Perhaps, the apprentice has exceeded his mentor.

Finally, for dramatic effect, let us view just one more:

This chart is neither from Lincecum nor Cain. This actually belongs to Zack Greinke, winner of the 2009 AL Cy Young award and possessor of a devastating slider. What you’ll see is that he’s throwing it at around the same velocity as both Cain and Lincecum, if not just a bit harder at times, as well as getting both vertical and horizontal movement. With that being said, if you really take a close look at both Greinke’s charts here, and Lincecum’s September 24 chart above, you’ll likely discover that Lincecum is actually getting more vertical movement. That movement is what made Rob Nen so nasty and what does the same for Brad Lidge when he’s right. Folks, let me tell you, this is a nightmare for a hitter. On this day, amidst his Cy Young campaign on August 25, 2009, Greinke went all of eight innings, struck out fifteen Indians and walked just one, a spectacular outing.

In conclusion: There’s quite a lot here that bodes well for the Freak in 2011. We’ve seen that he may well have ran into a bit of bad luck in 2010, when his batting average on balls in play (BABiP) went from a career mark of (and very normal) .308 to .324. And in addition to that, he had a month where he just couldn’t seem to keep the ball in the park for whatever reason, and in another just couldn’t throw strikes. We also may well have some empirical evidence, along with what we’ve heard with his conditioning, that his velocity is trending upwards again. While it’s probably very safe to say his mid-nineties heater probably won’t reemerge, a consistent 92-93 is attainable. And finally, it seems clear that Tim has added a quality pitch to his repertoire, if not a devilish one, to couple with his changeup that has so tormented the league. What he now has is two pitches to put away hitters. One designed to dispatch left-handed hitters – this is the changeup because it moves down and left to right. And the other designed to screw right-handed hitters into fits – this is the slider biting downward and right to left. Which is not to say they aren’t weapons regardless of the opposing hitters handedness. Good luck.

In any case, he’s my (very early) 2011 NL Cy Young pick because Tim Lincecum is still carrying the fire.

Stats and Pitch F/X data pulled from Fangraphs 12/8/10

Giants Crush Koufax's Equal - Lee - Take Game 1

The Paul Bunyan tales of Cliff Lee can now cease for at least the next few days as the lefty is bulletproof  in October no more (previously 7 and 0). The Yankees managed to take down the Phillies last year despite being beaten by Cliff Lee twice in the World Series, and now that the Giants vanquished the illustrious darling of the East Coast media, they won’t have to go that route. I posited in my 3 keys to the series that the Giants would put themselves in excellent position if they were able to defeat Lee even once. Check. They also passed the other two key tests of the series on this night with flying colors by keeping Hamilton at bay and the Rangers’ running game too.

*Speaking of those they’ve defeated, the Giants have now beaten Derek Lowe (2 x), Tim Hudson, Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt, Cole Hamels, Ryan Madson and Cliff Lee in these playoffs. They also beat Halladay, Oswalt (3 x), and Hamels in the regular season, as well as Ubaldo Jimenez, Josh Johnson, Clayton Kershaw, Matt Latos (2 x), R.A. Dickey and Adam Wainwright during the regular season. I’m just saying.

One thing that helped the Giants was the fact that the usually superb Lee was unusually wild. He wasn’t Jonathan Sanchez wild. But he walked a batter and so I guess he was wild for Cliff Lee. For one, he could not locate his curveball. Of the 104 pitches he threw, 11 were curves. That’s actually a couple more than he averages per start. That problem was, only 3 of 11 went for strikes. One was an excellent hammer that dispatched Burrell swinging in the second inning, but otherwise he was unable to locate the pitch. He also used the changeup sparingly– he only 5 threw of which 3 went for strikes – so perhaps he didn’t have a feel for it tonight. He threw his cutter more often than usual (30% of the time). That’s because it was about the only pitch he was able to consistently locate but the Giants hitters appeared ready for it, especially when it wasn’t located with the surgeon precision the world has become accustomed to after hearing McCarver and Buck drool over him for 4+ innings.

He threw 80% strikes in the fourth but labored while throwing 32 pitches and giving up two runs (1 earned as Michael Young did the Giants a huge favor by committing an error to start the inning). And that probably did a lot to undo him as he threw 29 more in the fifth while getting two-out-hit to death before ultimately being yanked for Darren O’Day – who is typically excellent against right handed hitters – who promptly gave up a mammoth three-run dinger to Juan Oooo-Ribe. When the ball landed in the bleachers, the crowd had reached a fever pitch that only 55 years of disappointment and a season of torture could create, and the Giants had opened up a six run advantage they would never relent. Lee’s strike percentage by inning was uncharacteristically low (62, 67, 66, 80, and 62). He got behind hitters more often than he usually does, and when he needed to make pitches he didn’t. He missed up and in with his fastball a few times when he was trying to plant it on the insider corner. And when he needed to come into the zone as he fell behind, he center-punched the zone a few times too many and the Giants punished him for it. And he left his curve up and away versus right handed hitters more than a couple of times, because as I said, he didn’t have a feel for the pitch, a pitch he often uses to freeze hitters for strike three.

Freddy Sanchez had an excellent evening. In his first at bat he swung at a perfectly placed down and away fastball, shattered his bat, and hustled into second with a double as it dumped just inside the foul line down the right field line. I guess that was a good sign for how the rest of his night would go. In the third, he doubled in a run down the left field line on a cutter that was down in the zone but caught too much of the middle of the plate. And in the fifth after the Giants did a wonderful job of wearing down Lee in the previous inning, Sanchez doubled in another – his third double, making him the first player in history to double in his first three World Series AB’s – this time on a fastball that Lee was trying to get in on Sanchez but got way too much plate and was up in the zone. Sanchez smoked it into the left-center gap for a clean, warning track two bagger. Freddy lined out hard to right field in his next AB against Alexi Ogando but he’d hit it on the screws again. For good measure, he finally scorched a slider that caught too much plate in his final at bat for another run scoring hit, this time a single with an advance on the error by Vladimir Guerrero, which brings us to our next topic.

The Rangers – Ron Washington, more specifically – went with Bad Vlad in right field. It turned out to be a really bad idea as he committed two errors and looked much like a wounded animal in the spacious AT&T outfield throughout the night. He let a “single” drop off the bat of Edgar Renteria – I say "single" with hesitance because an adept right fielder might have been able to actually snag the liner on a fly; this is something I saw more than once down the stretch with Jose Guillen manning right field – and to make matters worse, he let it fly right by him as he couldn’t reach down to retrieve it and Rent ended up on three for the other of his two errors. To say he didn’t look comfortable would be to say that that Donald Trump’s hair is comb-overish or that Keith Law is sometimes condescending. Something tells me Vlad won’t be in the lineup come Thursday.

The Giants managed to start the series off wonderfully despite the rocky start in the first two innings. Lincecum gave up 1 in the first and 1 in the second, though he wasn’t hit especially hard. He benefited from a nice double play by Juan Uribe to end the threat in the first with the bases juiced – that after he’d done something extremely boneheaded. He retrieved a weak groundball and had the runner between home and third dead to rights, but instead ran him back to the bag as if another Ranger would be there waiting and one would be tagged out. It was a clear case of Tim forgetting the situation. In the second, he gave a double to Lee – yes, the pitcher – on a butcher boy play before giving up a sacrifice fly to Elvis Andrus. The person that scored was the ever-speedy Bengie Molina – he received a nice and classy ovation from Giants fans during introductions – but his cause was helped on what could have been a close play if not for the truly atrocious throw from Torres, though Torres rewarded his manager for letting him start despite the relative ineffectiveness from his weak right side with a big double.

Lincecum left the game with two outs in the sixth having given up 8 hits, 4 runs and 2 walks while only striking out a very uncharacteristic and few 3. He didn’t look great early on but pitched well enough to win on this night. He did appear to be heading into a groove but it seems likely, though as grateful as he was for the 8 runs of support, that the two long offensive innings for the Giants in both the fourth and fifth extinguished what momentum he had. Perhaps having only thrown 93 pitches will be in his favor when he takes the mound again, should he need to of course.

The Rangers would never again be within four runs of the Giants. Both pens didn’t pitch particularly well but the Giants added on three more in the bottom of the eighth so it didn’t much matter. Wilson came in to get the final two outs in the ninth when neither Ramirez – who I am hoping Bochy sees for what he is by now – nor Affledt could close the door. Bochy wasn’t taking any risks and frankly I can’t blame him.

Tomorrow is Game 2 and it starts at the same time, i.e. 4:57. Matt Cain will oppose C.J. Wilson who I wrote a scouting report for yesterday. The Giants shouldn’t expect to get too much help from the Rangers tomorrow as far as errors – or errahs if you’re Dick Stockton – and should look to make their own breaks. Hopefully some other bats will join the fun and Freddy will stay hot as well as Huff who is really starting to swing the bat better. Furthermore, the Giants made a few snazzy plays tonight but also made a couple of mistakes – they’ll need to continue to do the former while limiting the latter. The Giants are just three wins from endearing themselves to The City forever, but they better play one game at a time. It all starts with pitching. Matt Cain, you’re up.

How the Giants Won the Pennant (in just 2,800 words)

Inning 1:

At the beginning of the first inning (after Torres singled to lead off the game), I was feeling very good. The Giants’ speedy leadoff hitter was reemerging as a serious offensive threat. By the end of the first, it felt like the Giants were going to be routed. After Sanchez was out in the third with two on and none out in a must-get shutdown inning (more on this later), it would have been reasonable to believe the Giants were going to get Uber-routed.

It seemed pretty clear that Sanchez didn’t have it after he walked Polanco on four pitches and promptly flung a wild pitch to advance him to second. Utley then doubled him home and the flood gates appeared to be opening early. Luckily, Sanchez managed to minimize the damage to a 2-0 Philly advantage after giving up a single to Howard and a sacrifice fly to Werth. So, at the end of one, it was pretty obvious Oswalt was dealing and throwing darts and Sanchez was all over the place. It sure felt like Giants fans would be in for a long night.

Inning 2:

The second inning was largely uneventful, but after Burrell managed to reach on an infield single, it was a good sign the Giants were getting on base. Moments later, Ross hit into a double play on the first pitch and I thought (or screamed aloud): “Seen that before!”

In the bottom half, Sanchez appeared to regain his arm slot and retired the Phillies in order. Maybe he’d pull it together after all, much like he did in game 2.

Inning 3:

The third was quite possibly the most eventful of the entire game if not the series. Time and time again, the Giants get knocked down only to get right back up again, and after the first couple of innings there was probably cause to panic. The Giants disagreed.

Jonathan Sanchez didn’t bring much to the table with his arm, but much like against the Padres in the NL West clinching game, Sanchez got a rally going with his bat – he singled to center to start the third. Torres nearly pumped one out to center which would have tied the game – the FOX announcers acted like it was a infield pop fly, right on cue – but only got a single out of it after Sanchez ran the bases as if he’d been blindfolded and spun in circles. Frustrating, yes, but the Orange and Black had something going. After a sac bunt by Freddy, Huff singled softly to center and I thought the game would be tied. Torres apparently didn’t get a good jump and was thrown out by 10 feet despite the ball bouncing off the mound and slowly making its way to Ruiz. I was livid, because Torres was out by a mile on a poor throw. I couldn’t fathom how Flannery would send him on that. Anyway, Posey hit a swinging bunt and Polanco kind of threw it up the line, and the official scorer inexplicably gave Howard the error. It was a Polanco error or hit all the way. More importantly: new ballgame.

It was pivotal the Giants receive a shut down inning from Sanchez. They sort of did and sort of didn’t in the turning point of the game. Sanchez walked Polanco again (this time on five pitches) and up came Utley. Despite the double in the first, Utley had been terrible all series long. He’d played poor defense at times and hit worse. But Utley was still Utley. Just last year at AT&T, Sanchez buzzed one by Utley’s head and Utley took him deep pitches later. I have a lot of admiration for Utley as a player and expressed it here earlier this year. Sanchez dotted Utley in the back with an 87 mph 2-0 fastball, the wheels were falling off and things started to get weird.

The ball remarkably bounced almost directly into Utley’s hand and probably in the heat of the moment, he flipped the ball towards Sanchez in bush league manner. This is my opinion only, and it was pretty harmless. Anyway, Sanchez stared Utley down and they exchanged words, and before long every player headed toward the diamond as the benches cleared. Every player except for one: Jeremy Affeldt. And why did he stay? He stayed because a man who pitched for the Giants at the end of his career told him to, Mark Gardner*.

*Mark Gardner is the perfect man to lead the Giants’ bullpen and he and Brian Wilson have a lot in common. They both know loss. Gardner didn’t have the greatest career, but he fell in love with an organization and has been there almost ever since he arrived. While at CSU, Fresno, Gardner met his wife Lori, an All-American softball pitcher. Lori would get liver cancer during his playing career and Gardner would retire after 2001 to fight to the bitter end with his wife. Lori would finally succumb to it in 2003. Gardner immediately became the Giants’ bullpen coach in 2003 and has held that position ever since. Brian Wilson lost his father at a critical age of his life, he was just 17. Suffice to say, both the leader in that bunch and the man slated with closing out the gut wrenching, torturous games know a thing or two about bouncing back.

For me, this was the very moment the game was won. I’d wanted to write about it as soon as they won, but the great Joe Posnanski beat me to it. Who better to? Here’s my take on it with some quote help from Joe. Gardner would say to Affeldt: "You stay here," and "You warm up." Not to my surprise after reading it from Joe, the Phillies fans had less than flattering things to say to Affeldt for not joining the boys on the field. Affeldt would ignore them and keep warming. When he came in I showed a tweet to my fiancé that Affeldt had sent out after they lost game five. It read: “To lose patience is to lose the battle.” – Mahatma Gandhi. And before game six, he tweeted: “Anyone who angers you conquers you.” – Elizabeth Kenny. I guess the Phillies fans didn’t conquer the lefty.

"Keep this thing close," Affeldt would remember manager Bruce Bochy telling him. "Because we're going to win this game." And it was also time for me to put my foot in my mouth once again. At the beginning of the season, I admittedly didn’t have a lot of good things about to say about the Giants’ roster. Boy, was I wrong. And my one criticism of Bochy’s division series roster was Affeldt over Runzler. But Bochy knows the people and not just the numbers (I know just the numbers). And sometimes that burns him. But sometimes it rewards him. I may have even seemed correct after Affeldt didn’t throw a pitch against Atlanta. But, again in the NLCS, Boch went with Jeremy.

Affeldt came in and immediately calmed the storm. He struck out Howard on a high 93 MPH fastball. He then coaxed a Werth fly out and meek grounder to first from Victorino.

But the battle was far from over. The Giants’ pen had just been handed seven innings to win the pennant. They’d take the challenge and run with it, with a little help from the rotation.

Inning 4:

The Giants went down in order in the fourth: Ross, Uribe and Renteria. Not much to talk about here. Roy appeared to be rolling again.

Affeldt, after pitching beautifully to get out of the third, was tasked with putting up another zero. He made it look easy. He got Ibanez, Ruiz and Oswalt in order. He was so good, in fact, I wondered if Bochy might consider letting him hit to lead off the 5th.

Inning 5:

Bochy again pulled the right strings. He wasn’t too hypnotized by Affeldt’s dominant two innings and perhaps knew his guys limitations. He used Fontenot to pinch hit and he rewarded him with a single. They would put two on in the inning, but Huff and Posey would fail to capitalize. But, Oswalt would throw more stressful pitches and this would no doubt contribute to his inability to go past the sixth.

In the bottom half, the Giants would come within inches of falling behind again. In came the game four starter, Madison Bumgarner. He gave up a single to Rollins and then got two fly outs from Polanco and Utley. But Howard would hit a beautiful opposite field double that would surely score Rollins. Except, the ball caromed perfectly to Torres who quickly hit his cutoff and force the Phillies to hold Rollins, crisis averted. Bumgarner walked Werth intentionally and got another weak groundout from the “Flying Hawaiian” Victorino.

And the Giants (read Bochy) were using starters, relievers and a little luck to cobble together a chance to win, in breathtaking, impossible to predict fashion.

Inning 6:

The sixth inning started more or less promising as the eventual NLCS MVP, Cody Ross, hit his third double – to go along with his three long balls – of the series. Oswalt plunked Uribe hard in the back, and Juan didn’t look to happy about it. Uribe would take his base and, while not in that moment, find reason to flash his infectious smile later. Renteria would ground into a double play – again, seen that before – with some fancy defense by Utley. It was the usual Utley, not the Conrad Utley we’d seen a few times in the series. Oswalt had gotten out of it, but his night was over.

The bottom half didn’t start off swell for the Giants (and their nail biting fans, with them in every moment). Bumgarner gave up a double to Ibanez – a player starting to show signs of life. After a sacrifice by Ruiz, Ben Francisco came to the plate. He’d had some pretty good swings off of Bum in game four. Bochy, for what reason I can’t say, stuck with the 21 year old rookie. Perhaps it was a hunch. Bumgarner rewarded him – much like Bochy’s misfits did time and time again in the game, this series – by striking Francisco out looking and getting Rollins to fly out to center. Another crisis was averted.

Inning 7:

In came Madson and I was baffled. Earlier in the night, I’d said aloud: “if the Giants can just get into the pen in the sixth or seventh, they’ll get a chance against Not-Madson and Not-Lidge.” Why was Madson in now?! “Great,” I thought. Madson went through the Giants like a buzz saw in game five. But Ishikawa set a tone in the first at bat as if to say: “It won’t be so easy this time, Madson.” Ishi took a good at bat and eventually struck out a ball that almost hit the Torres in the on deck circle (See Below, lucky pitch number seven). Madson struck out Torres, too, and he was doing it again! But after Sanchez doubled, Huff intentionally walked, and Posey grounded out, they’d at least gotten some pitches (some juice) out of Madson.

Thanks to Brooks Baseball PitchFX Tool

What was the biggest midseason acquisition this season in the National League? Roy Oswalt? Derek Lee? Miguel Tejada and Ryan Ludwick? No, no, how about Javier Lopez? That’s remarkable. In came Lopez in the bottom half. I looked at mlbtraderumors.com every 28 seconds from June until July 31st waiting for the Giants to add a hitter. And on July 31st, I read that the Giants had acquired a lefty (a LOOGY) named Javier Lopez. I wasn’t impressed with his stats, upon reviewing them, and despite the Giants desperately needing left handed pitching help with Affledt and Runzler hurt, I wasn’t exactly ecstatic. I wanted Josh Willingham – he would end up hurt and not play for a good portion of the second half. I wanted David DeJesus – he was hurt just before the deadline and supposedly just before Sabean grabbed him. Instead, we got a LOOGY: A lefty one-out guy. What in god’s name?

In came Lopez. Lopez had been brilliant since coming over for Pittsburg. He’d been brilliant in the divisional series. He’d been brilliant in the NLCS up to this point except for one hit he’d give up to Howard. He already had five holds in the postseason. He’d given up one run but gotten huge out after huge out. He turned the heart of the Phillies’ order into mincemeat by retiring them in order and putting an exclamation point on the end with a strikeout to Howard. So much for him being a LOOGY.

Inning 8:

In the top of the eighth, Madson continued to do what he’d done to the Giants all series long. After five pitches, the Giants were down to an out and in stepped Juan Uribe. Uribe had huge hits for the Giants all year long. Actually, he’d had huge homeruns for the Giants. He hadn’t hit a homerun in the postseason since his first ever postseason game with the White Sox in 2005. Madson had thrown 22 pitches (plus 4 intentional walks balls). And Juan Uribe, “Jazz Hands” and all, went BOOM with an opposite field homerun. How improbable was that? Well, the dinger wasn’t. But, from Lookout Landing, we learn that Uribe hadn’t hit an oppo homerun all season and in at least five seasons. That’s postseason baseball in a nutshell for you, and so is this: Tim “The Freak” Lincecum was suddenly warming up, on 1 day rest.

Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus tweeted, “Again, Lincecum used to close on Sundays at U. Washington… often after throwing 130+ pitches on Fridays.” And though Lincecum didn’t throw a scoreless 8th, he did get the inning started on the right note by striking out the dangerous Jayson Werth, a hitter who hit a two-run job off of him in game 1. He gave up two singles – including a great at bat by Victorino, the first major league hitter to ever take Timmy deep way back in his major league debut in 2007 – after that and in came “Fear the Beard” Brian Wilson. Wilson would need to throw just three pitches (saving bullets for the ninth) as Ruiz hit a line-drive – but it was no screamer, as many would incorrectly posit he hit it on the screws – that would find it’s way into Huff’s glove for one and eventually to Renteria’s at second to double off Victorino.

Inning 9:

Schierholtz put together a pretty terrible at bat and struck out in the ninth, but he was in for defense anyway. Then Torres, who I’d been telling my fiancé all night wouldn’t ever bunt for some reason, bunted. And he placed it beautifully and slid in safely, but hurt his groin in doing so. Hopefully, he’s good to go by game one on Wednesday. Torres stayed in the game for the time being – he’d be replaced by Rowand in the bottom half for precautionary reasons – and after Sanchez singled and Huff struck out, Bochy tried to bluff Charlie Manuel by putting Panda in the on-deck circle while Posey batted and Wilson’s spot in the order was up after him. People would say Manuel called his bluff and walked Buster intentionally – a walk even Joe Posnanski would not have minded – but it was pretty obvious. The Giants were not going to lose their closer for the ninth with two outs and a slight chance to add on. Wilson looked goofy with his helmet on and grounded out.

The Giants were three outs from the Fall Classic, and the fans knew it wouldn’t come easy. Wilson has a penchant for never giving in to hitters, never quite giving them something to hit, and walking a few batters here and there because of it. Wilson luckily was able to get the first batter (Gload) out which certainly boded well for the rest of the inning. But then he walked Rollins and up came Polanco. Polanco had more than one huge hits in the series. This time, though, he grounded into a fielder’s choice fielded very nicely by Uribe to get Rollins out at second. And then Wilson brought the collective heart rates of Giants fans to a hummingbird proportions by walking Utley. Up came Howard, he’d had a decent series despite the strike outs and lack of an RBI – which FOX was so great at pointing out 100 times in the series. Maybe, just maybe, they’ll figure that one out. Howard fought off some tough pitches and took the count to three and two. And Wilson would fearlessly throw his slider in that spot – again, this guy never seems to give in – and after a slight hesitation home plate umpire Tom Hallion rung up Howard much to the delight of the entire Bay Area. And that, is how the GIANTS WON THE PENNANT!

My favorite quote of celebration: Q: “Brian (Wilson), what’s it like having a different person step up to win every night?”

A (Wilson): “It feels awesome, it feels like when you’re a kid, and every guy gets a chance to be a hero every night and then you get to eat orange slices and Kool-Aid after the game. Except, we’re nailing champagne right now.”

Drink up, Giants, you deserve it. But you’re not done yet.

Epic Game 1 Showdown: Freak vs. Doc

Game 1 of the NLCS will feature two pitchers who are most recently credited for throwing two of the greatest postseason games in baseball history. In game 1 of the NLDS versus the Reds, a high powered offense, Roy Halladay – in his first ever playoff appearance – threw the second no-hitter in postseason history. He was brilliant, and many claimed they knew the man would throw a no-no after three innings. In game 1 of the NLDS versus the Braves, admittedly a crippled lineup, Tim Lincecum – in his first ever playoff appearance – threw a 119 pitch, 14 strikeout, 2 hit, one to nothing gem – complete with 31 swings and misses, tops for a game in 2010. Many would fervently argue Halladay (Bill James Game Score: 94) was better, and yet a handful of others, brilliant others, would argue Lincecum was better (B.J.G.S.: 96). Determining which was, is irrelevant, and now these very dissimilar rotation ballasts will face off in what’s being tabbed as an epic matchup.

Posnanski on Halladay: "Halladay’s no-hitter was so dominating that when he walked Jay Bruce, my only thought was: 'Oh, that’s too bad. Now he will only throw a no-hitter instead of a perfect game.' And that was in the fifth inning — two or three innings AFTER I felt sure that the Reds would not get a hit."

Posnanski on Lincecum: "At one point in Thursday’s mind-blowing game, Lincecum struck out Brooks Conrad on some sort of ridiculous super pitch — Conrad seemed to literally swing through the ball (he foul-tipped it). Bob Brenly called it a changeup. I shouted, 'Come on Bob, that wasn’t a changeup. That was a curveball.' And so I rewound the thing and watched it. And I said, 'Oh wait, maybe he was right. Maybe it was a changeup.' I rewound again and watched and said, 'No, that wasn’t a changeup. That was a slider.' I rewound again and watched and said, 'No, wait, I think that WAS a curveball.' I rewound again and finally settled on it being a slider. But really it was some sort of shape-shifting pitch. It could be whatever you wanted it to be."

Halladay pitches with grace, purpose and precision; he is Rembrandt. Halladay is basically good to great at everything. He strikes out nearly 8 batters per 9 IP (7.86) – and that’s pretty much where the just good ends – he walks few (1.08) – that’s a ratio of 7.30! – and limits the HR (.86). He keeps people off of the base paths with a 1.04 WHIP. His ERA was fantastic at 2.44 and his FIP excellent too at 3.01. He’s also an efficient ground ball pitcher (51.2%), which is to his benefit given his home digs at the launching pad Citizens Bank Park. He also basically led the world in complete games with 9 and shutouts with 4. And Halladay has all but answered the question: What happens when you take the best pitcher (who was on a mediocre team) in the best division in baseball, and put him on a very good team in the National League? Anyone who disagrees he will win the Cy Young award is highly deluded.

He’s a battleship with all the weapons, and built like one too – he’ll throw 4 above average pitches at you, at any time, and he usually has all four working. That includes a fastball at 91-93, his cutter and best pitch at just a tick under the same speed, an excellent and big curveball and finally, a changeup (with a split finger grip, ala Lincecum) that he learned this season and has been throwing more often, more effectively than he ever has. What truly sets this big Ace apart, however, is that Halladay thows each of his offerings with almost sharp shooter accuracy. How does that sound, Giants hitters?

Lincecum pitches with electricity, contortion and distortion; he is Van Gogh. The Freak is a slight in stature strikeout machine and one of only three men to lead the NL in punchouts since WWII in three straight seasons, the others Randy Johnson and Warren Spahn. This is good company. Amidst his 2010 struggles – which were unbelievably overblown – Lincecum K’d 9.79/9 IP. He walked 3.22, which isn’t great, but distributed most of those walks in his struggling months of May and August. He continued to limit the HR nicely with .76 per 9, but that is likely somewhat aided with the home ballpark. His ERA was a high – for him – 3.43 but his FIP a nice 3.15. While Lincecum was struggling, he was battered by a high BABIP at times which resulted in an uncharacteristically high .324 for the season. He too does a good job at inducing the ground ball and finished with a mark of 48.9%. His WHIP finished at 1.27 which I’d posit is at least moderately higher than we can expect going forward. Despite all of his struggles, Keith Law would have given Lincecum a No. 5 nod on his Cy Young ballot.

Lincecum, like Halladay, attacks with multiple weapons. His best weapon during his two Cy Young seasons was the fastball and changeup combination. He’d also been mixing in a cutter behaving slider and a 12:6 curveball which was the main strikeout pitch he’d carried over from amateur baseball. For whatever reason, Lincecum appears to have lost a feel for that pitch and has since almost ceased throwing it all together. His fastball isn’t the 93-96 it once was, but continues to dart across the strike zone with excellent lateral movement and sinking action; he throws mostly two-seamers. I think everyone knows about his changeup. But, few know that Lincecum too has replaced one of his less effective offerings and modified it. For him it’s his slider. On September 12th, so the story goes, prior to a game against the Padres, Lincecum started fooling with a slider grip taught to him by Matt Cain. He quickly put it to use. Since that start, Lincecum has given up a total of 5 runs in 36 innings and been striking out batters at the incredible rate he’s known for. This slider has two-plane break instead of just the right to left movement he was getting prior. He throws it at roughly the same speed as his changeup with the same arm speed and arm slot. The result: Did you see the Braves hitters in the NLDS game 1? This addition gives him two devastating finish pitches that behave similarly, but in the opposite direction.

The implications of this matchup demand baseball fans to tune in.

stats grabbed from fangraphs

SF Giants borrow formula of Archrivals

So, I stayed mostly silent after the Giants finally dispatched the Braves in truly excruciating (and typical) fashion.  I did this more or less to bask in the excitement. I knew I had at least a few days to let the anxiety subside – a short reprieve from the torture. It’s truly incredible to believe, but the Giants are in somewhat unchartered territory here.

Since the Giants moved west to San Francisco in 1958, they’ve only been this deep or deeper in the playoffs five (5) other times. They made it to the World Series in 1962 and lost in seven to the Yankees. They made it to the League Championship Series in 1971 and lost to Clemente’s Pirates – this is when the baseball passion that burns in my father was ignited and eventually passed to me. They made it to the NLCS in 1987 and lost in seven (7), this time to the Cardinals. In 1989, they returned to the NLCS and beat Maddux’s Cubs to advance to the Bay Bridge Series. Their World Series ring hopes crumbled along with the entire city amidst the unforgettable Loma Prieta earthquake.  They returned to the NLCS in 2002 after winning the Wild Card and eliminating the Braves, and exacted their revenge on the Cardinals. But, once again, they would fail to finish (but succeed in tormenting their adoring fans) as they couldn’t hold on to a five run lead with eight outs to get in Game 6, eventually losing in seven to a young John Lackey.

                                                                     

What’s different about this team, however, is that their composition is decidedly different. When people typically think of the Giants, they think of sluggers and outstanding offensive players. People think of Mays, McCovey, Clark and Barry. This team doesn’t have a superstar everyday player. They thought they had one – and they may still – but he gained 30 pounds, lost his stroke, and found his way to the bench. Instead, their lineup is like a last minute Halloween costume – a pair of shorts from the Salvation Army, a construction vest, tool belt and hard hat from your dad, a fake mustache, and Caterpillar boots and voila, you’re The Village People construction worker! – It can turn out really great!

Their leadoff is a minor league journeyman turned igniter.  He’s got incredible speed, amazing ability in the center of the outfield and can hurt you with the long ball. Their two hitter is a scrappy second baseman they nabbed from the Pirates for a once hot (not so much any longer) prospect. It’s far too often pointed out he won a batting title, which seems like ages ago, as his greatest asset now is his ability to pick it at second. Their three hitter is (literally) a Plan C that nobody wanted. He found out what it felt like to win, played admirably defensively in three places, strapped on a red thing and has been Huff Daddy ever since. Their cleanup? He’s just a twenty-three year old with less than a full season of experience, and catching (and leading) the most electric staff in baseball. Their five hitter was dumped midseason by an already eliminated AL team* and picked up for league minimum. Their six hitter is a power hitting everyday shortstop that was supposed to be a utility man. Their seven hitter is likely going to be a utility type that’ll play third. He was plucked from the Cubs visiting clubhouse when they were in town, and just to provide depth in the infield. And finally, their eight hitter is an outfielder who can play all three spots and was picked up off waivers in August simply because the Giants were trying to block the Padres, who needed a centerfielder at the time. Oh, he was also the NLDS Most Valuable Player, were the award actually given.

*What’s also interesting is that they – the Rays – desperately needed a quality right handed bat to face off against the likes of the incredible Lee and the quality C.J. Wilson. They never replaced Burrell, and it ultimately was perhaps their undoing. In their defense, Burrell hadn’t done anything in the full season of AB’s they threw at him as their DH. Only when he went west and into the NL again did he turn back into the player they thought they signed, the powerful, patient ex-Philly.

The Giants, this time, are instead a throwback to the 1960’s Dodgers ( as well as the 1970’s A’s and 1990’s Braves). They have an electric starting staff and a solid bullpen. The four of their five starters that will likely pitch in this series –  Lincecum, Sanchez, Cain and Bumgarner –  are all homegrown.  Lincecum won the Golden Spikes award out of UW and was drafted 10^th overall in 2006. He arrived shortly after and has two Cy Young awards and 907 strikeouts in just 811 innings. Sanchez was drafted in the 27^th round of 2004. The Giants have been almost unreasonably patient with him, and his recent results are why. The Giants saw exactly what Kuiper said about him this morning , he’s a lefty with swing and miss stuff. They don’t grow on trees. Cain was drafted 25^th overall in 2002 out of a high school in Tennessee.  He’s as steady as they come, and never complains, not even when he has a career sub .500 record despite a mid-three ERA and a career WAR of nearly 20 (courtesy of fangraphs) at age 26. And the most recent addition, Madison Bumgarner, was drafted 10^th overall in 2007 out of a high school in North Carolina. He just won the clincher for the Giants on the road, in his first ever playoff appearance, at age 21.  He was the left handed version of Cain on draft day: a big kid, projectable, live fastball, ornery, but with better command. With these kinds of arms, the Giants have a bright future.

But the best news is this: the Giants are in. If the odds were even, and they’re not, they have a one in four shot at a parade down Market. Sure, the ESPN “experts,” all ten of them, picked the Phillies to win  the series. But we don’t care because we’re in. And, they play the games for a reason.

Giants' Starters Continue to Lead the Way

The story of this series so far is the Giants starting pitching and the clunky glove of the Braves second baseman, Brooks Conrad. Through three games in the series, the Giants have held the lead at the completion of 20 innings – out of a possible 29 – or 69% of the time. The Braves have had a lead at the completion of exactly 2 innings, and it’s been tied at innings end seven times. The main reason the Giants have dominated this series, though they’ve been dominating in spider web thin fashion – if there is such a thing – is the aforementioned starting pitching of the Giants.

Lincecum, Cain and now Jonathan Sanchez have been nothing short of breathtaking. Between them, they’ve tossed 23 innings, allowing 11 hits and 4 walks, and struck out 31. That’s good for a 0.65 WHIP and 12.13 K/9. To say they are carrying the load would be an extreme understatement, but a statement that’s been the theme in San Francisco for the past two seasons. The other theme and club motto they adopted – thanks to an early season proclamation by Kupier – is: Giants Baseball: Torture. What would a postseason series with this team involved be without it?

The series has been downright excruciating, and the bullpen utterly disappointing after a remarkable September. The Giants’ Frisbee slider tossing setup man, Sergio Romo, had given up two singles and a potential game winning, pinch hit homerun to Eric Hinske – who looks like a candidate for the World’s Strongest Man competition, by the way* – before recording an out in the series.  From what I’ve heard about the odds in Vegas, the likelihood that Bochy runs Romo out there again in a critical situation is somewhere in the neighborhood of Bobby Cox putting Brooks Conrad in as a defensive replacement.  The range of emotions I’ve been through in this series, even from just the 8^th through 9^th inning yesterday, has been astounding. 

*Just prior to his dramatic HR, I’d tweeted that it “looks like he eats Smart Car’s for breakfast.”

I also want to point out the fact that the Giants’ 9^th inning uprising on Sunday was fueled by something that happened two nights earlier, 2,500 miles away. Billy Wagner tore his oblique on Friday night at AT&T, ripping him from the NLDS, a potential NLCS, and possibly ending his career. The Braves managed to cobble together a win that night despite their enormous loss. They did this with a mid-July, Dayton Moore (The Brilliant) aided, desperation acquisition of a near replacement level outfielder – who, strangely, was also a former phenom pitcher – a shaky reliever who was greatly aided by a gutsy double play started at third by an at best first baseman, and finally a few sprinkles of pixie dust. The Giants’ comeback on Sunday would have been far less probable versus the experienced and formidable Wagner.  For example, the Giants may have went with Aaron Rowand against the lefty instead of Ishikawa – who scored the tying run – against Kimbrel. Enough said, right?


Game 1: Lead – Giants 6, Tied 3, Braves 0
Lincecum: 9 IP, 2 hits, 0 R 1 BB, 14 K
Conrad: 1 error, resulting in 0 runs**


Game 2: Lead – Giants 7, Tied 3, Braves 1
Cain: 6.1, 7 hits, 0 ER, 2 BB, 6 K
Conrad: 0 errors


Game 3: Lead – Giants 7, Tied 1, Braves 1
Sanchez: 7.1 IP, 2 hits***, 1 ER (on Romo HR), 1 BB, 11 K
Conrad: 3 errors, resulting in 2 runs – one of which was game winning


**Don’t be fooled by the fact that this error didn’t “cost” the Braves a run. Not every error costs the same, but they all cost something. And what each of them cost, at a minimum, is pitches – stressful pitches.  This isn’t to be underestimated when these guys who have been ridden for 200+ innings, and are now being asked to go on short rest


***Sanchez’ first hit given up came on a single off the bat of Braves starter Tim Hudson. Noteworthy, however, is that it came directly after back to back questionable non-strike calls. Paul Emmel – who was behind the plate – was pretty inconsistent, if not horrible, throughout the game.


Tweets of the series, so far:


Damon Bruce: Can the NLDS MVP go to the frying pan Brooks Conrad brings out to second base with him? The biggest impact of the series so far, right?****


Andy Baggarly: Your winning pitcher: Sergio Romo. What’s this about wins being an arbitrary stat?


****This tweet came before the 9^th inning error that finally sunk the Braves Sunday


GAME 4: Madison Bumgarner versus Derek Lowe @ 4:37 PDT


There’s a lot to like going into today. The Giants need to win one of the next two to advance.  They will look for their rookie left hander, Madison Bumgarner, to continue to exhibit the fearlessness he has thus far in his young career.  He’s pitched extremely well on the road this season.  Bumgarner is going on extra rest and Lowe is going on short rest.  Most would automatically assume this would dramatically tip the scale for the Giants.  That might be fair, but it could just as easily go against them.


Bumgarner is already going to have the extra adrenaline going for several reasons.  The 21 year old will be making his playoff debut and will be pitching relatively close to his home in North Carolina. His key is to not allow the extra rest and ample amounts of pumping adrenaline propel his fastball to the upper portion of the strike zone.  He just has to find a way to harness his emotions. My scouting report on Bumgarner can be read a few posts back comparing him to Zito: Game 4 Starter…


Lowe will be pitching on short rest, but that’s not a terrible thing for the Braves.  Lowe is a sinker baller, and sometimes less rest is better for these types of pitchers. The heavy arm can often have the affect of assisting the sinker ball pitcher to keep the ball down in the zone more easily. A huge key is for the Giants to lay off assortment of stuff Lowe will be teasing them with in the bottom of the zone.


This series has been extremely tight.  I expect nothing less today. It would behoove the Giants to finish the Braves off and avoid a game 5 in San Francisco. They can set up their rotation for the NLCS versus the rolling Phillies – and pitch Lincecum three times instead of twice. Also, you never know what can happen in a game five, play in game.