Best in the NL West

If I had a nickel for each time Rob Neyer inspired me to write something, well, let’s just say I’d have quite a few nickels. Recently, he’s been publishing (in weblog form, silly) a series which aims to determine the very best players at each position through the conclusion of the decade. It’s ambitious. It’s also doomed to failure, unless he’s learned a thing or two since the last time he tried. Anyway, I’d like to do something similar, but pare it way, way back.

We will start by including only those players who play in the National League West and trim if further by aiming for the best players now, not necessarily worrying so much about their future. To do this, I’m simply looking up the Fan Projections from FanGraphs, grabbing each player’s projected Wins above Replacement (WAR), and completing the circle by commenting on each selection. The fans projections seem a decent place to start to find some impartial (if also biased) judges. Sound like fun? Too bad. One final note: I’m doing position players now with the hopes to do pitchers later – just don’t hold your breath.

After the jump, we start with the most important position on the diamond, the catcher. We’ll continue in order of positional scarcity – meaning the relative supply of “good” players at each position. There are fewer good hitters that can also be good defensive catchers than any other position. Next is shortstop, and so forth.

Optimism in the Schedule

A few weeks ago, I presented an analysis of the remaining schedule for the Giants and Padres. Many of the games remaining have peeled off since then and it’s probably a good time to provide an update. Additionally, I have added in the Phillies, Braves, Cardinals, and Rockies who are the Giants other top-competitors when it comes to determining who will play in October. The Reds – barring a San Diego-esque meltdown – have all but sewn up the Central division so I have opted not to include them. Essentially, if you assume the Reds have locked up the Central, you have 6 teams fighting for 3 playoff spots. Here’s how their schedules break down for their remaining 23 to 27 games, and I’ve included their current playoff percentage “likeliness.”

Rockies (7.8% Likely)
The Rockies’ playoff likeliness seems a little deceiving to me given their record, but the fact that they’d have to topple two teams in the division or at least two in the wild card makes their potential path to the postseason a difficult one. Also, their run differential (RD) of +49 isn’t spectacular. The average RD of their remaining opponents is +22, which is a bad omen, especially because their only remaining opponent with a losing record and negative RD is Arizona who they’ll play 6 more times. The one true advantage remaining for Colorado is they have the best home/road split of the bunch. They’ll play 15 more at home and 10 more on the road, but that advantage is miniscule and it seems more and more likely it’ll be too much for them to overcome.
Cardinals (22.3 % Likely)
The Cardinals are the longest shot right now out of the 6 teams in terms of their win and loss record, but it’s much brighter and less bleak for them than I had realized. The Cardinals have the most favorable remaining schedule by far. The average run differential of their remaining opponents is an astounding -45. This is in large part thanks to playing 6 games each against the Cubs and Pirates. The Pirates in particular are abysmal. Their RD is an unfathomable -272 thus far in 2010. Like most of the rest of the teams, the home and road games remaining are more or less split. They’ll play 27 more, 14 home and 13 on the road. They also have the four-headed monster: Wainwright, Carpenter, Holliday and Pujols. That’s a group capable of running off a bunch of wins in a row, especially if they’re playing the equivalent of the Bad News Bears. They also have the 4th best RD in the NL behind the Reds, Braves and Padres. This is one team foolish to overlook – they snuck into October in 2006, and snuck out with a ring.

Giants (51.3% Likely)
Thanks to the Padres’ long awaited 10 game implosion; the Giants have increased their playoff odds considerably in the last week and a half. While they didn’t exactly earn it themselves, they also didn’t completely fumble the opportunity. The average run differential of their remaining opponents is -7 which is very good news for Giants fans. They also have the fifth best RD at +73. They have just 24 more games to prove they deserve to make the playoffs for the first time since 2003, 12 road and 12 at AT&T. Giants fans have been waiting all season long for the Padres to struggle, but they’ve also been waiting all season long for the Giants to put it all together. The rotation was remarkable in April, brilliant for stretches, but ultimately disappointing given the expectations. The offense was a revelation in July, and otherwise inconsistent at best for most of the season. The bullpen has been solid to fantastic at times, and very disappointing other times. If the Giants can somehow get all three rolling for the next 3 weeks, they will be in great shape.

Padres (65.5 % Likely)
What can I say? A week and a half ago the Padres were a lock for October. Then they rattled off 10 straight losses and opened the door if not flat out tried to hand the division to San Francisco. To make matters worse, the Padres have the toughest remaining schedule of all the teams fighting for a spot. The average run differential of their remaining opponents is +35. Ouch. That makes the ten straight losses all the more painful. After facing the Giants in the critical upcoming four-game weekend series, the Padres will hit the road for 3 in Colorado, 4 in St. Louis and 3 more in Los Angeles. Then the Reds, who will undoubtedly be looking to put the cherry on the Central division, will be waiting for them in San Diego. The Padres do still have a 1 game lead in the division and 2 in the loss column, as well as the second best RD in the NL at +104, but after their recent collapse their knees are officially knocking. Their home/road games are also split at 13, with 2 more games to play than the Giants. Can their starting staff and (until recently) untouchable bullpen continue to hold opposing offenses at bay enough for their hitters to do the rest? We will know soon enough.

Phillies (67.6 % Likely)
The Phillies have made two straight World Series appearances for the NL but after a horrendous early season slump and injuries to Polanco, Utley and Howard among others, their playoff hopes were much in doubt at various times this season. Right now? Not so much. If the season ended now, they’d have the wild card. The average RD of their remaining opponents is +25, which isn’t going to makes things easy for them here on out. Their toughest adversary will be the Braves (6 games) who also stand in their way for the Eastern division crown. The Phillies have won three straight, but the Braves have the best RD in the NL at +124 and don’t look poised to stumble in Cox’s final season. They only have 23 games remaining on the schedule with 11 home and 12 away. They are always a threat to go bonkers scoring runs with their middle of the lineup and adding Oswalt behind Halladay certainly has helped their cause.

Braves (87.4% Likely)
I included the Braves because if they get passed by Philly, they’ll be the Giants’ competition for the Wild Card. The Braves lost Chipper Jones but have been arguably the best team in the NL throughout the year. They endured a terrible losing streak of their own (9 games), but have otherwise been pretty fantastic. The average RD of their remaining opponents is more or less (0) zero. They have a combined 8 games remaining versus the Nationals and Pirates, but that’s offset with remaining games against St. Louis and the fighting Phillies. Their RD, +124 as previously mentioned, as well as their current division lead, certainly bodes well for their playoff hopes. But the teams are still bunched pretty close together so the pennant and Wild Card race is going to be much more exciting than the one going on in the American League.

Run differential spreadsheet and calculations can be found in the box.net tool (on the right side of thise page) titled, "Optimism in the Schedule."

What’s this mean for the Giants…?

The Giants’ easiest path to the postseason is now the division. This is pretty amazing considering the two separate occasions they’ve had sizable deficits this season. After the fourth of July, the Giants had about 7 ½ games to make up. They brought that back down to 1 game but after losing 2 of 3 at home versus the Padres in mid-August, they allowed it to again balloon to 6 ½ games. They’ve closed the gap again to just 1 game. But here’s why the easier path goes through San Diego and the division and not the Wild Card. San Francisco and San Diego will play 7 more times, which is more than 25% of the time in their remaining schedules. Each game is essentially a battle with a two game swing. If the Giants can somehow put the season long slump against the Padres to rest and take the upper hand in each of these series’, they’ve got a really good shot to win the division. If you thought the mid-August scuffle in San Fran was a big series, just wait ‘til the 4 gamer in San Diego this weekend… and the season ending three-game series October 1st – 3rd at AT&T. Get your dynamically priced tickets now!

Not so fast

Dear Mr. Neukom, SOS.

-Giants Fans

When you take a look at the Giants’ projected 2010 lineup, something is glaringly obvious: they will be incredibly slow. What little speed they had in 2009 is either likely to get far less playing time in 2010 (Burris and Velez) or left via free agency (specifically I’m speaking about the sneaky fast Randy Winn who led the team in thefts). Other players on their roster have fallen out of favor with management or the manager for unknown reasons and look to either be moved or provide depth as a bench player. Of course I am referring to Fred Lewis. Lewis is one of the few Giants on the roster returning from 2009 that possesses speed, a patient approach with on base skills and the ability to play relatively decent defense (according to UZR despite most Giants fans belief he’s terrible). With that said, when the Giants mentioned players fighting for the final outfield spot for the upcoming season, Velez, Bowker and Schierholtz were mentioned. Schierholtz is the odds on favorite because of his ability to play a very quality RF. Unfortunately, Schierholtz has pretty horrid on base skills and at least at the major league level has never shown the power he displays in batting practice and he used to show in the minors. During the conversation of who’s likely to be fighting for the final outfield spot, Lewis’ name never came up. This has been pretty shocking to me because Lewis seems like the one Giant that could and probably should hit leadoff. I personally would be thrilled if the Giants would grab up Johnny Damon at this point but the likelihood of that is about as probable as the Giants suddenly welcoming Beane’s A’s to San Jose with open arms. While Damon’s weenie arm and average to below average defensive skills are likely to cost the Giants a few runs on defense, he’s also been a ridiculously consistent offensive presence who could add some speed, on base skills, and power at the top of the lineup. Again though, not happening.


And why is there no chance the Giants are signing Damon? Well, I have run through the Giants’ 2010 payroll thus far and by my count it’s near $100 mil or even slightly over depending on Lincecum’s arbitration hearing, despite Bill Neukom recently saying something to the effect of, it’s definitely gone up but he doesn’t believe it will be $100 mil. While I don’t want to pretend that I know the Giants’ finances better than their managing general partner, I do know how to add salaries and that payroll is projected to be about that. Maybe they are more confident than I am that they can actually convince an arbiter that Lincecum is worth $2 mil less than Ryan Howard was worth 2 years ago. I’m very curious to hear their logic as taking those two figures to a hearing certainly seems like a fool’s errand to me.

Allow me to get back to the why. While Sabean promised to let the market develop on players this offseason, I don’t believe he followed through. For starters, Sabean declined Freddie Sanchez’s $8 mil 2010 option only to ink the second baseman for 2 years and $12 mil, i.e. more guaranteed money. Sanchez was coming off knee surgery (and now is coming off the more serious labrum surgery). Sanchez won’t even have to earn that $12 mil with performance incentives because it’s all guaranteed. I did like the DeRosa signing which was essentially the same as Freddie Sanchez’s, 2/ $12. The next 3 singings are what have me concerned. Sabean picked up a utility player for $3.25 mil (bringing back Uribe), a first baseman who belongs as a DH for $3 mil and brought back “that ship has sailed” Bengie Molina for $4.5 mil despite having the far cheaper and conceivably more productive rookie Buster Posey. That’s a total of $10.75 mil guaranteed. Furthermore, calling Huff a DH is probably giving him a lot of credit considering his offensive performance in 2009. Huff certainly fits the part of a DH with his lack of defensive prowess, but there are a plethora of players that were available late that would be far more productive as a DH (Thome and the still available Dye come to mind). While I do think it’s likely Huff will out hit Ishikawa, I also think it’s likely he’ll give the surplus of runs he produces with his stick right back with his glove. So instead of upgrading significantly with an everyday player, Sabean continued with the 2009 blueprint of trying to patch together a lineup with scotch tape. The Giants have a ton of players that could be useful utility players and can play pretty much all over (albeit in many cases not well*), but aren’t necessarily suited to play every day.

*Huff has played all over in his career with little success.

I’ve touched on the fact that they aren’t as good defensively in previous posts. When it also seemed apparent to me they were quite slow, I decided to try and examine that assumption – the mother of all F-ups – because an assumption is just that until it can be proven. I took all of the projected starting lineups for the NL West and averaged their top 8 hitters’ (excluding the pitchers spot) projected OBP and speed factor using Bill James’ projections on FanGraphs. This is what I got:

Giants
Spd – 3.31
OBP - .331


Dodgers
Spd – 4.04
OBP – .360


Diamondbacks
Spd – 4.59
OBP - .350


Rockies
Spd – 4.50
OBP – .360


Padres
Spd – 4.38
OBP - .341

What we can clearly see from this is that the Giants still appear to lack the ability to get on base at a league average rate and are by far the worst in the division. Exacerbating that problem is the fact that when they do manage to sneak their way on base, they are going to have to go station to station to score runs.  While my method for examining their relative speed and OBP for 2010 isn't exactly bullet proof, it does provide some pretty significant evidence that the Giants won't be terribly swift.  After all, Bill James' ( a pretty smart guy) projections are based on past performance. The Dodgers have the second worst average speed factor in the division and still have greater than a 20% advantage in that category. The back breaker of course is the fact that the Giants also have a serious power outage since the departure of Barry Bonds. A team that can’t get on base, runs like a team full of catchers and can’t play for the three run dinger probably isn’t going to score many runs. So if the Giants pitching staff felt they were carrying the load last year, they will probably feel more of the same this year and the defense behind them projects to do them a lot less good, too.

Sabean is out of money for the upcoming season and he’s running out of time. He may have fooled the business man Neukom thus far, but it appears his days are numbered. Frankly, he was very lucky with the timing of Peter McGowan’s departure. Neukom probably didn’t want to make such a big splash, especially coming off of a very successful season with the huge turnaround from ’08 to ’09, but if Sabean’s rosters continue to be less than impressive despite the young infusion of talent provided to him by John Barr and Dick Tidrow, Neukom will show him the door and find a new CEO. If a man who once ran the very successful Microsoft can’t understand the benefit that is the wealth of statistical information currently available to evaluate players and which Sabean ignores, who can?