Brian Wilson's likely out for at least a little while. That's not horrible news. I mean, it's not great but it's also not the end of the world. So, who will replace him?
Romo seems the obvious choice to fill his shoes, but it might be worthwhile to explore a platoon.
Click the link and enjoy the adventure.
Insightful baseball analysis for the casual crowd, Moneyball masses and you, the Third and King crew
Showing posts with label Giants. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Giants. Show all posts
Wednesday, March 23, 2011
Friday, February 25, 2011
Baseball Prospectus bullish on Giants
I hadn’t spent much if any time looking at Baseball Prospectus’ (BP) 2011 projections, that is, until now. Guess what: There’s another reason why it’s great when your team wins the World Series: their “Depth Chart” appears free to all at BP. This is also the case for the Texas Rangers, who in case you’ve forgotten, lost to the Giants in the Fall Classic. In five games.
They call their projections PECOTA – Pouring Endlessly and Cleverly Over These Algorithms. I made that up, but that’s because I don’t know what it actually stands for. Your turn to try.
For those Giants fans that are already worried the Giants are being underestimated, don’t be. For starters, you should never be worried of that because it doesn’t really matter. No, really, it doesn’t matter. You also shouldn’t this year because it’s simply not the case.
Baseball Prospectus is currently projecting the Giants to win the NL West by three games, besting the Dodgers. They have the Giants winning 90 games (two less than 2010) and the Dodgers winning 87. Beyond that, the Rockies grab 83, the Friars fall to just below .500 with 80 and the Diamondbacks… well their still in the cellar, though 74 wins is a nine game improvement.
But there’s more. BP also is projecting the Giants to have 1) the second best run differential (RD) in the National League at +86 runs and 2) the second lowest figure of runs against (RA). First is of course the Phillies. Just kidding. It’s the Dodgers. What?
Actually, this makes perfect sense. A couple reasons: the Dodgers have a solid rotation which includes Clayton Kershaw – a budding ace – to go with Chad Billingsley, Ted Lilly, Hiroki Kuroda and Vicente Padilla, as well as a very good bullpen.
I guess Padilla is having some issues with a nerve in his forearm. I guess we could start singing a jingle like Jonny Gomes, but we won’t do that here. But only because Padilla’s no ace. I mean, if Kershaw goes down I reserve the right to celebrate. Rob Neyer said I could.
I said a couple of reasons. I meant a few. I always thought a couple meant two, a few meant three and some meant four. That’s just me, but I digress. The other reason is the ballpark the Giants, Phillies and Dodgers play in. The Giants and Dodgers play in more neutral, less offensive parks. Actually, the difference isn’t what some people make of it because the Citizens Bank Park is regarded as a more neutral park when you really get down to it than is generally perceived (or portrayed) by most fans and the media. But when push comes to shove, Chavez Ravine (LA) is the most pitcher friendly, followed by AT&T (SF) and then Citizens Bank Park (Philly).
There’s also the fact that despite the Phillies’ wunderrotation – new word – their bullpen probably isn’t as good as the Dodgers’ and Giants’. They are all close though, at least in terms of RD: 637, 640, 657.
As I mentioned in passing earlier, the Giants have the second best run differential. First place does go to the Phillies with their +94 and 91 wins, but that’s just eight runs and one game in the standings. They win the East, in this projection. Rounding out the National League (NL) is the Cardinals with a +62 RD and 87 wins, despite losing Adam Wainwright. Make sure to mark your calendars for the Braves versus Dodgers one game playoff – they’ll fight for the last spot with 87 wins each.
Please also take note of the fact that the Brewers are the next in line with 85 wins. This shouldn’t come as a big surprise to anyone. They added Shaun Marcum and Zack Greinke this offseason and already had a very solid offense anchored by Rickie Weeks, Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder. Standings are very fungible, a little luck (bad or good), an injury here or there, and voila: the Cubs win the Central. This stuff happens.
Personally, I’ll take the Brewers in the Central right now on a whim. I have the right.
That’s the standings, kids. I’ll give you some thoughts on the player projections in due time. Probably. Hint: Brandon Belt is projected to be the second best hitter on the Giants in 2011, but won’t really play enough for it to matter.
Update: BP ran the numbers again and the Brewers are now on top in the Central, although in a virtual tie in the standings with the Cardinals. Waino's loss to Tommy John surgery figures to make a tight race in the Senior Circuit's weakest division.
They call their projections PECOTA – Pouring Endlessly and Cleverly Over These Algorithms. I made that up, but that’s because I don’t know what it actually stands for. Your turn to try.
For those Giants fans that are already worried the Giants are being underestimated, don’t be. For starters, you should never be worried of that because it doesn’t really matter. No, really, it doesn’t matter. You also shouldn’t this year because it’s simply not the case.
Baseball Prospectus is currently projecting the Giants to win the NL West by three games, besting the Dodgers. They have the Giants winning 90 games (two less than 2010) and the Dodgers winning 87. Beyond that, the Rockies grab 83, the Friars fall to just below .500 with 80 and the Diamondbacks… well their still in the cellar, though 74 wins is a nine game improvement.
But there’s more. BP also is projecting the Giants to have 1) the second best run differential (RD) in the National League at +86 runs and 2) the second lowest figure of runs against (RA). First is of course the Phillies. Just kidding. It’s the Dodgers. What?
Actually, this makes perfect sense. A couple reasons: the Dodgers have a solid rotation which includes Clayton Kershaw – a budding ace – to go with Chad Billingsley, Ted Lilly, Hiroki Kuroda and Vicente Padilla, as well as a very good bullpen.
I guess Padilla is having some issues with a nerve in his forearm. I guess we could start singing a jingle like Jonny Gomes, but we won’t do that here. But only because Padilla’s no ace. I mean, if Kershaw goes down I reserve the right to celebrate. Rob Neyer said I could.
I said a couple of reasons. I meant a few. I always thought a couple meant two, a few meant three and some meant four. That’s just me, but I digress. The other reason is the ballpark the Giants, Phillies and Dodgers play in. The Giants and Dodgers play in more neutral, less offensive parks. Actually, the difference isn’t what some people make of it because the Citizens Bank Park is regarded as a more neutral park when you really get down to it than is generally perceived (or portrayed) by most fans and the media. But when push comes to shove, Chavez Ravine (LA) is the most pitcher friendly, followed by AT&T (SF) and then Citizens Bank Park (Philly).
There’s also the fact that despite the Phillies’ wunderrotation – new word – their bullpen probably isn’t as good as the Dodgers’ and Giants’. They are all close though, at least in terms of RD: 637, 640, 657.
As I mentioned in passing earlier, the Giants have the second best run differential. First place does go to the Phillies with their +94 and 91 wins, but that’s just eight runs and one game in the standings. They win the East, in this projection. Rounding out the National League (NL) is the Cardinals with a +62 RD and 87 wins, despite losing Adam Wainwright. Make sure to mark your calendars for the Braves versus Dodgers one game playoff – they’ll fight for the last spot with 87 wins each.
Please also take note of the fact that the Brewers are the next in line with 85 wins. This shouldn’t come as a big surprise to anyone. They added Shaun Marcum and Zack Greinke this offseason and already had a very solid offense anchored by Rickie Weeks, Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder. Standings are very fungible, a little luck (bad or good), an injury here or there, and voila: the Cubs win the Central. This stuff happens.
Personally, I’ll take the Brewers in the Central right now on a whim. I have the right.
That’s the standings, kids. I’ll give you some thoughts on the player projections in due time. Probably. Hint: Brandon Belt is projected to be the second best hitter on the Giants in 2011, but won’t really play enough for it to matter.
Update: BP ran the numbers again and the Brewers are now on top in the Central, although in a virtual tie in the standings with the Cardinals. Waino's loss to Tommy John surgery figures to make a tight race in the Senior Circuit's weakest division.
Monday, January 24, 2011
Revisiting Zito's Contract
When decisions are made during times of desperation, the results are rarely pretty.
In the 2006 offseason, the Giants were determined to sign a big-time free agent bat. They offered deals upwards of $100 million to two players, but couldn’t coax either Carlos Lee or Alfonso Soriano to head to San Francisco. In hindsight, this ended up being a very good thing, in that neither Lee nor Soriano are particularly useful any longer, if at all; except that, having failed in their endeavor to sign them, the Giants pulled the trigger on another ill-advised deal: they signed Barry Zito.
There wasn’t really anything wrong with Zito as a Major League starter at the time, nor really is there now. The problem was this: they gave him the richest contract for a pitcher in baseball history, i.e. 7 years for a total of $126 million, and an option for an eighth season for another $18 million (or otherwise a $7 million buyout).
Zito was never an elite pitcher, despite wining the AL Cy Young award in 2002. His best season actually came in his first full campaign, when he finished with 5.0 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) in 2001. But that season he struck out 8.61 batters per nine innings. and he would never again approach that. He was always more of a finesse lefty, and one who walked his fair share of batters. As his fastball velocity slowly eroded, so did his value. After his 2002 Cy Young season, he never again posted a FIP (fielding independent pitching) beneath 4.00 (it was 3.87 in ’02). His WAR went from that 5.0 in 2001, to 4.4, to 4.3, to 3.2, to 3.0, and to 2.1 in 2006, his last season with the Athletics.
And then the Giants made him the richest pitcher in history, despite these obvious signs of his steady decline.
In the 2006 offseason, the Giants were determined to sign a big-time free agent bat. They offered deals upwards of $100 million to two players, but couldn’t coax either Carlos Lee or Alfonso Soriano to head to San Francisco. In hindsight, this ended up being a very good thing, in that neither Lee nor Soriano are particularly useful any longer, if at all; except that, having failed in their endeavor to sign them, the Giants pulled the trigger on another ill-advised deal: they signed Barry Zito.
There wasn’t really anything wrong with Zito as a Major League starter at the time, nor really is there now. The problem was this: they gave him the richest contract for a pitcher in baseball history, i.e. 7 years for a total of $126 million, and an option for an eighth season for another $18 million (or otherwise a $7 million buyout).
Zito was never an elite pitcher, despite wining the AL Cy Young award in 2002. His best season actually came in his first full campaign, when he finished with 5.0 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) in 2001. But that season he struck out 8.61 batters per nine innings. and he would never again approach that. He was always more of a finesse lefty, and one who walked his fair share of batters. As his fastball velocity slowly eroded, so did his value. After his 2002 Cy Young season, he never again posted a FIP (fielding independent pitching) beneath 4.00 (it was 3.87 in ’02). His WAR went from that 5.0 in 2001, to 4.4, to 4.3, to 3.2, to 3.0, and to 2.1 in 2006, his last season with the Athletics.
And then the Giants made him the richest pitcher in history, despite these obvious signs of his steady decline.
Monday, November 29, 2010
Juan Uribe signs with Dodgers
Juan Uribe has officially signed with the hated Dodgers, pending a physical, and yet I harbor no ill feelings toward him. Prior to the 2009 season, Juan Uribe couldn’t find a job and the Giants signed him to a minor league contract. Despite the slight salary, he gathered 2.8 wins above replacement (Fangraphs version of WAR) in just 122 games while playing several infield positions. Uribe hoped his season would earn him a multi-year deal following that campaign, but it just didn’t in a down economy that impacted even professional sports. The Giants re-signed him for $3.25M in 2010 and he helped them significantly with a 3.2 WAR and some late game heroics. He was a huge reason the Giants won the World Series.
Jeff Kent went to the Dodgers and it was terribly fun to boo him. Jason Schmidt signed with them too, and immediately turned into Mike Hampton. That wasn’t necessarily FUN to watch, though if it were enjoyable to watch ANYONE rot on the DL, he’d have to be playing for the Dodgers. I’d like to say I wish Uribe well, but I’m just not sure I do. Not yet, anyway. No, rather I’m mostly happy that he finally earned some money that was well deserved. This was his third crack at free agency, and the first two shots yielded him A) a minor league deal and B) a one year deal of $3.25M. This 3/$21M pact will set him and his family up for life, and for that I am happy for him.
And when HE is flashing that World Series ring to his teammates in L.A. – Isn’t that a wonderful thought? –this is how I will be remembering him.
Juan Uribe THE LEGEND
It grows and grows…
May 15, 2010
Juan Uribe, in the fourth inning, took Roy Oswalt deep with one on to give the Giants the narrow lead, 2-1. Lincecum would go eight and Wilson would save it. Uribe’s blast was all the offense the Giants needed, and he and Oswalt would meet again.
June 7, 2010
Uribe would finish this ballgame with 4 RBI, the last two coming off of a single in the seventh that scored two and put the Giants up 6-5, and secured the win against the Reds.
August 14, 2010
In August the Giants needed a series win against the Padres, but more than that, they desperately needed to avoid a sweep and one at home no less. They trailed by two in this game into the seventh against the hated Latos – he who perplexingly called the Giants a bunch of mercenaries, meanwhile his shortstop and left fielder were of the same ilk, and who also destroyed the sun roof on our beloved Dave Fleming’s new car; seriously, who fires a baseball into the players parking lot? In the seventh, Panda chased him by clobbering an eye-high fastball into the water. Burrell provided an RBI ground out in the eighth. And finally in the eleventh, Posey doubled, Pablo was intentionally walked, and “Jazz Hands” Uribe singled home Buster in walk off fashion. Mayhem ensued.
September 4, 2010
On a warm, clear night in Los Angeles, the Dodgers were leading against San Francisco by 4 runs from the bottom of the fourth and into the seventh at Chavez Ravine. Then Posey hit a solo shot in the seventh, and Renteria – one of just 3 HR in the regular season – led off with one in the eighth. Dotel relieved Lilly, and was rudely greeted when Burrell went Yahtzee next – this was, of course, a little over a month after Burrell burned Broxton for a game winning two-run blast on July 31. And finally in the ninth, Uribe delivered the crippling blow to the Dodgers with a two-run job off of their fallen closer, Jonathan Broxton, after a Cody Ross hustle, infield single. All was quiet, and the crowd of 48,220 (paid) emptied the bleachers, retired from their orange bucket seats and hurried to their crowded freeways.
October 20, 2010
The Giants went up 2-0 early with Bumgarner on the hill. Then, in the fifth, the Phillies put up a crooked number and it was 4-2 Phillies. But Huff singled home a run in the fifth to bring the Giants within one, and Pablo Sandoval hit a left-center gap double that scored two in the sixth – this was the biggest hit of his young career and his second double of the at bat – and the Giants led again. Lopez’s only blemish of the entire postseason – seriously – came in the eighth when Howard doubled off of him and Romo relented a Werth double that tied it in relieving him. But in the ninth, Manuel went with his starter Oswalt because it was his throw day, and because Roy talked him into it. Huff singled and Posey sent him first to third with an opposite field single following an epic battle, and also after going down 0 and 2. Uribe came up and Oswalt did everything to light Uribe’s hands on fire with fastballs in, because Uribe had a sore wrist. Except, he tried to get tricky and Uribe lofted his low changeup deep enough to left for Huff to score on a sacrifice fly. The home crowd went ballistic, and watching at home, so did I. The Giants were within a win of the Fall Classic.
October 23, 2010
The Giants went down early in game six of the NLCS. It was 2-0 after one, and Jonathan Sanchez was anything but sharp. But Sanchez singled in the top of the third and started a rally that tied the game 2-2. But then, he walked Polanco and hit Utley. Utley and he had history, and Utley somewhat politely tossed the ball towards the mound, which Sanchez took exception to. The benches cleared completely, except for a mild tempered fellow named Jeremy Affeldt, known for tweeting inspiration quotes, and his bullpen coach Mark Gardner. When the dust settled, Affeldt pitched two spectacular innings of no run ball, the first of which got them out of a two on, no out disaster. Then Bumgarner pitched two innings of no run relief. Then Lopez pitched an inning of no run relief. And in Ryan Madson’s second inning of relief, Juan Uribe did something he rarely does. He hit an opposite field, 346 foot home run that barely cleared the wall. I lost my mind. Soon after, Tim Lincecum struck out Jayson Werth before being relieved by Wilson, Ryan Howard looked disgusted while eyeing strike three, and the Giants won the pennant. Uribe was instantly enshrined in Giants lore.
Juan Uribe THE MAN
Now that I’ve covered the legend, I’ll try to throw in my two cents on whether the Dodgers did well on this contract, and therefore if the Giants missed out by not matching the deal.
Over the past two seasons, Juan Uribe has played third, second and shortstop for the Giants, and clubbed 40 combined home runs (16, 24). In those seasons, Fangraphs’ ultimate zone rating (UZR) has liked him at third (2.2, 2.6) and second (3.7, 2.1) in particular, and hasn’t hated him at short (-2.8, 2.1). His .351 weighted on base average (wOBA) was above average at .351 in 2009, and 10 to 20 points below average in 2010 (.322), though plenty good for a shortstop where he largely played. The Dodgers, however, have him slated for second in 2011. To be fair though, it seems likely he’ll spend time at short too when Furcal inevitably goes down to one physical malady or another.
Will Juan live up to the $21 million he’ll make over the next three seasons? Maybe. Offensively, his on base percentage (OBP) in 2009 was just fine at .329 when coupled with his .495 slugging percentage (SLG). But if his OBP continues to erode like it did in 2010 (.310), and should his slugging too (.440 in ‘10), the contract will soon be looked upon suspiciously. His career OBP is just .300 after all, and his slugging just .431. And, his .322 wOBA is far less palatable if he’s playing second base, and it’s not far-fetched to hypothesize it’ll be around there where his career wOBA is just .312.
Defensivley, Uribe has posted positive UZR ratings in 6 of the past 7 seasons, and his only negative mark was just -0.1 in 2008. Though it’s fair to say he’s never been an elite defender, it’s also fair to say he’ll probably be a quality defender at either third or second for the next couple of years. But, he’ll be 32, 33, and 34 over the life of this contract, which is to say that his peak years are likely behind him.
If he is able to maintain his status as a 3 win player over the next three seasons, the contract will be well worth it. The value of a win on the market will probably fall between $4 and $5 million – let’s say it’s $4.5 – and so if he was able to continue his recent success he could be worth as much as $40.5 million ($13.5 times three years). But he probably won’t play as much shortstop in L.A., so I’d say that’s a huge stretch. But even if he loses half a win per season starting in ’11 and through ’13, he’d still be worth around $27 million* total. But he’ll have to continue to be healthy for a full season or near it, and he’ll have to maintain his current abilities both offensively and defensively. But if he doesn’t, which isn’t a completely remote possibility, Colletti will have swung and missed.
*(2.5 Wins*$4.5M) + (2.0 Wins*$4.5M) + (1.5 Wins*$4.5M) = $27 million
The contract is not without risk, but which contract truly is? It appears the Dodgers probably got fair value for now, especially considering how thin the shortstop position is this offseason in terms of acquirable talent and that many clubs probably saw him as an option. Perhaps the Giants didn’t want to go too long, i.e. three years, or too rich, i.e. $21 million, but then I guess who can blame them when they were getting 3 wins above replacement for two years for roughly $2 million a year? More than anything, I think that this contract could be particularly interesting to look back on in a couple of years.
Regardless of how well or poorly he does, I can’t help but be happy for him. He’ll look awfully strange in the Dodger blue. And I’ll always love Uribe for the past two seasons and 2010 especially, but won’t blame anyone for giving him a Booooo-Ribe chant when he visits China Basin.
Also worth noting, the Giants will pick up a sandwich pick (between the first and second rounds) because of Uribe's status as a Type B free agent.
Stats provided by Fangraphs
Jeff Kent went to the Dodgers and it was terribly fun to boo him. Jason Schmidt signed with them too, and immediately turned into Mike Hampton. That wasn’t necessarily FUN to watch, though if it were enjoyable to watch ANYONE rot on the DL, he’d have to be playing for the Dodgers. I’d like to say I wish Uribe well, but I’m just not sure I do. Not yet, anyway. No, rather I’m mostly happy that he finally earned some money that was well deserved. This was his third crack at free agency, and the first two shots yielded him A) a minor league deal and B) a one year deal of $3.25M. This 3/$21M pact will set him and his family up for life, and for that I am happy for him.
And when HE is flashing that World Series ring to his teammates in L.A. – Isn’t that a wonderful thought? –this is how I will be remembering him.
Juan Uribe THE LEGEND
It grows and grows…
May 15, 2010
Juan Uribe, in the fourth inning, took Roy Oswalt deep with one on to give the Giants the narrow lead, 2-1. Lincecum would go eight and Wilson would save it. Uribe’s blast was all the offense the Giants needed, and he and Oswalt would meet again.
June 7, 2010
Uribe would finish this ballgame with 4 RBI, the last two coming off of a single in the seventh that scored two and put the Giants up 6-5, and secured the win against the Reds.
August 14, 2010
In August the Giants needed a series win against the Padres, but more than that, they desperately needed to avoid a sweep and one at home no less. They trailed by two in this game into the seventh against the hated Latos – he who perplexingly called the Giants a bunch of mercenaries, meanwhile his shortstop and left fielder were of the same ilk, and who also destroyed the sun roof on our beloved Dave Fleming’s new car; seriously, who fires a baseball into the players parking lot? In the seventh, Panda chased him by clobbering an eye-high fastball into the water. Burrell provided an RBI ground out in the eighth. And finally in the eleventh, Posey doubled, Pablo was intentionally walked, and “Jazz Hands” Uribe singled home Buster in walk off fashion. Mayhem ensued.
September 4, 2010
On a warm, clear night in Los Angeles, the Dodgers were leading against San Francisco by 4 runs from the bottom of the fourth and into the seventh at Chavez Ravine. Then Posey hit a solo shot in the seventh, and Renteria – one of just 3 HR in the regular season – led off with one in the eighth. Dotel relieved Lilly, and was rudely greeted when Burrell went Yahtzee next – this was, of course, a little over a month after Burrell burned Broxton for a game winning two-run blast on July 31. And finally in the ninth, Uribe delivered the crippling blow to the Dodgers with a two-run job off of their fallen closer, Jonathan Broxton, after a Cody Ross hustle, infield single. All was quiet, and the crowd of 48,220 (paid) emptied the bleachers, retired from their orange bucket seats and hurried to their crowded freeways.
October 20, 2010
The Giants went up 2-0 early with Bumgarner on the hill. Then, in the fifth, the Phillies put up a crooked number and it was 4-2 Phillies. But Huff singled home a run in the fifth to bring the Giants within one, and Pablo Sandoval hit a left-center gap double that scored two in the sixth – this was the biggest hit of his young career and his second double of the at bat – and the Giants led again. Lopez’s only blemish of the entire postseason – seriously – came in the eighth when Howard doubled off of him and Romo relented a Werth double that tied it in relieving him. But in the ninth, Manuel went with his starter Oswalt because it was his throw day, and because Roy talked him into it. Huff singled and Posey sent him first to third with an opposite field single following an epic battle, and also after going down 0 and 2. Uribe came up and Oswalt did everything to light Uribe’s hands on fire with fastballs in, because Uribe had a sore wrist. Except, he tried to get tricky and Uribe lofted his low changeup deep enough to left for Huff to score on a sacrifice fly. The home crowd went ballistic, and watching at home, so did I. The Giants were within a win of the Fall Classic.
October 23, 2010
The Giants went down early in game six of the NLCS. It was 2-0 after one, and Jonathan Sanchez was anything but sharp. But Sanchez singled in the top of the third and started a rally that tied the game 2-2. But then, he walked Polanco and hit Utley. Utley and he had history, and Utley somewhat politely tossed the ball towards the mound, which Sanchez took exception to. The benches cleared completely, except for a mild tempered fellow named Jeremy Affeldt, known for tweeting inspiration quotes, and his bullpen coach Mark Gardner. When the dust settled, Affeldt pitched two spectacular innings of no run ball, the first of which got them out of a two on, no out disaster. Then Bumgarner pitched two innings of no run relief. Then Lopez pitched an inning of no run relief. And in Ryan Madson’s second inning of relief, Juan Uribe did something he rarely does. He hit an opposite field, 346 foot home run that barely cleared the wall. I lost my mind. Soon after, Tim Lincecum struck out Jayson Werth before being relieved by Wilson, Ryan Howard looked disgusted while eyeing strike three, and the Giants won the pennant. Uribe was instantly enshrined in Giants lore.
Juan Uribe THE MAN
Now that I’ve covered the legend, I’ll try to throw in my two cents on whether the Dodgers did well on this contract, and therefore if the Giants missed out by not matching the deal.
Over the past two seasons, Juan Uribe has played third, second and shortstop for the Giants, and clubbed 40 combined home runs (16, 24). In those seasons, Fangraphs’ ultimate zone rating (UZR) has liked him at third (2.2, 2.6) and second (3.7, 2.1) in particular, and hasn’t hated him at short (-2.8, 2.1). His .351 weighted on base average (wOBA) was above average at .351 in 2009, and 10 to 20 points below average in 2010 (.322), though plenty good for a shortstop where he largely played. The Dodgers, however, have him slated for second in 2011. To be fair though, it seems likely he’ll spend time at short too when Furcal inevitably goes down to one physical malady or another.
Will Juan live up to the $21 million he’ll make over the next three seasons? Maybe. Offensively, his on base percentage (OBP) in 2009 was just fine at .329 when coupled with his .495 slugging percentage (SLG). But if his OBP continues to erode like it did in 2010 (.310), and should his slugging too (.440 in ‘10), the contract will soon be looked upon suspiciously. His career OBP is just .300 after all, and his slugging just .431. And, his .322 wOBA is far less palatable if he’s playing second base, and it’s not far-fetched to hypothesize it’ll be around there where his career wOBA is just .312.
Defensivley, Uribe has posted positive UZR ratings in 6 of the past 7 seasons, and his only negative mark was just -0.1 in 2008. Though it’s fair to say he’s never been an elite defender, it’s also fair to say he’ll probably be a quality defender at either third or second for the next couple of years. But, he’ll be 32, 33, and 34 over the life of this contract, which is to say that his peak years are likely behind him.
If he is able to maintain his status as a 3 win player over the next three seasons, the contract will be well worth it. The value of a win on the market will probably fall between $4 and $5 million – let’s say it’s $4.5 – and so if he was able to continue his recent success he could be worth as much as $40.5 million ($13.5 times three years). But he probably won’t play as much shortstop in L.A., so I’d say that’s a huge stretch. But even if he loses half a win per season starting in ’11 and through ’13, he’d still be worth around $27 million* total. But he’ll have to continue to be healthy for a full season or near it, and he’ll have to maintain his current abilities both offensively and defensively. But if he doesn’t, which isn’t a completely remote possibility, Colletti will have swung and missed.
*(2.5 Wins*$4.5M) + (2.0 Wins*$4.5M) + (1.5 Wins*$4.5M) = $27 million
The contract is not without risk, but which contract truly is? It appears the Dodgers probably got fair value for now, especially considering how thin the shortstop position is this offseason in terms of acquirable talent and that many clubs probably saw him as an option. Perhaps the Giants didn’t want to go too long, i.e. three years, or too rich, i.e. $21 million, but then I guess who can blame them when they were getting 3 wins above replacement for two years for roughly $2 million a year? More than anything, I think that this contract could be particularly interesting to look back on in a couple of years.
Regardless of how well or poorly he does, I can’t help but be happy for him. He’ll look awfully strange in the Dodger blue. And I’ll always love Uribe for the past two seasons and 2010 especially, but won’t blame anyone for giving him a Booooo-Ribe chant when he visits China Basin.
Also worth noting, the Giants will pick up a sandwich pick (between the first and second rounds) because of Uribe's status as a Type B free agent.
Stats provided by Fangraphs
Friday, October 1, 2010
Magic No.: 1 (and guest posts elsewhere)
The Giants continued their recent trend on Thursday of scoring only when hitting the ball over the fence. Luckily, they’ve been doing it fairly often of late. Showing signs of life, Pablo Sandoval started the scoring with a second inning solo home run. Later, in the fifth, Andres Torres – thank god this guy is back – hit a solo shot to give the Giants a 2-1 lead they would not relinquish. And finally, Buster Posey – who has been a bit unlucky on balls in play lately – put the game more or less out of reach given the Giants’ recent pitching trend by hitting a ball out of play, a two run bomb to anchor his RoY chances.
As for the Padres, they are clinging for their lives. The Padres lost again today, giving them a 1-3 series against the scrappy Cubs. The Giants had already assured that one win would clinch the division (magic number 2), but with the Padres loss the worst case scenario is a one game playoff on Monday and the magic number is now just 1. This means, the Padres will have to beat Matt Cain, Barry Zito, Jonothan Sanchez and Tim Lincecum, in a row, to win the division. That folks, is what we call being in the drivers seat.
The Giants have already won 91 games and have the second best record in the league. Their goal now is to first clinch, and secondly, to do everything possible to keep the second best record. This would ensure a first round playoff matchup against... any team but the Phillies! Why could this be significant? Well, the Phillies opted for the eight day divisional series which allows them to pitch only Halladay, Oswalt and Hamels. Furthermore, the home field advantage they clinched throughout the playoffs (with some help from the NL All-Star victory) allows them to pitch their top three in 17 of 19 possible games.
Finally, as a caution, please do not assume that the Panda is emerging from a season long slumber. I was tricked several times over the course of this season while he strung several excellent games together. Unfortunately, those bouts of success were closely followed by deep freezes of Anarctic proportion. I hope he steps up, but I won't dare claim he might.
Humm baby! Who let the dogs out?! It’s magic inside! Got buster? Got beard?
Go Giants!
Note: I've been writing some guest posts at Baseball: Past and Present. More are likely to come; here are the first two: Great Pennant Races in Giants History and The Seven Greatest Season for Pitchers Since 1950
Cheers, enjoy the weekend.
As for the Padres, they are clinging for their lives. The Padres lost again today, giving them a 1-3 series against the scrappy Cubs. The Giants had already assured that one win would clinch the division (magic number 2), but with the Padres loss the worst case scenario is a one game playoff on Monday and the magic number is now just 1. This means, the Padres will have to beat Matt Cain, Barry Zito, Jonothan Sanchez and Tim Lincecum, in a row, to win the division. That folks, is what we call being in the drivers seat.
The Giants have already won 91 games and have the second best record in the league. Their goal now is to first clinch, and secondly, to do everything possible to keep the second best record. This would ensure a first round playoff matchup against... any team but the Phillies! Why could this be significant? Well, the Phillies opted for the eight day divisional series which allows them to pitch only Halladay, Oswalt and Hamels. Furthermore, the home field advantage they clinched throughout the playoffs (with some help from the NL All-Star victory) allows them to pitch their top three in 17 of 19 possible games.
Finally, as a caution, please do not assume that the Panda is emerging from a season long slumber. I was tricked several times over the course of this season while he strung several excellent games together. Unfortunately, those bouts of success were closely followed by deep freezes of Anarctic proportion. I hope he steps up, but I won't dare claim he might.
Humm baby! Who let the dogs out?! It’s magic inside! Got buster? Got beard?
Go Giants!
Note: I've been writing some guest posts at Baseball: Past and Present. More are likely to come; here are the first two: Great Pennant Races in Giants History and The Seven Greatest Season for Pitchers Since 1950
Cheers, enjoy the weekend.
Wednesday, September 22, 2010
Four Teams, Two Spots (and the NL RoY Race)
Each one of these rookies has been phenomenal in their own right. Heyward has played a nice right field and is hitting for solid average (.286), moderate power (.475 SLG) and is getting on base like a mad man (.401 OBP), something that rookies have rarely done. Buster Posey is hitting for an extremely high average (.324), getting on base at a very nice rate (.373) and hitting for much more power than could have been expected (.522 SLG), both this soon and also in terms of his long term potential. Furthermore, Posey is playing the integral position of catcher, and catching the staff with the best ERA in baseball no less. What’s more, the Giants have amassed an astounding ERA thus far in the pivotal September pennant race. Posey is thus far out OPS’ing Heyward .895 to .876, but this could change within a matter of days. Plus, Heyward has the slight wOBA edge given his higher OBP, 3.85 versus .382.
Heyward:
BR = 4.6 WAR in 132 G
FG = 4.6 WAR in 132 G
WAR Average = 4.6
1 W per 29 games played according to Baseball Reference
1 W per 29 games played according to Fangraphs
1 W per 29 games played, average
Posey:
BR = 2.8 WAR in 97 G
FG = 3.9 WAR in 97 GWAR Average = 3.35
1 W per 35 games played according to Baseball Reference
1 W per 25 games according to Fangraphs
1 W per 29 games played, average
Isn’t this interesting? On a per game basis, if we give 50% weight to baseball reference’s and 50% to Frangaphs’ figures, Posey and Heyward have provided the exact same WAR on a per game basis with 1 win every 29 games. Heyward has provided more cumulative WAR because he’s played in more games. My conclusion is this: Right now it’s more or less a dead heat. The voters are going to focus on counting stats and batting average. They are also going to put a great deal of weight on where their teams ended the season, in postseason or at home watching. Both of these players will have a great deal to do with how their teams finish. Still, they could both play horribly and both still get in, or both play phenomenally (a word that suits them both) and it end up that neither the Braves nor Giants get in. But this seems unlikely to me. In my humble opinion, if there was ever a year where a Co-NL Rookie of the Year award was appropriate, it would be 2010 with all the talent that has flushed the league this season. There’s probably (if not certainly) no right or wrong answer. I won’t hesitate to say it should be Posey – a biased opinion no doubt – but they’re singing a different tune down south, and have been so since their guy started breaking windshields in Spring Training. The fact that they played one another in the 2005 Georgia AAAA State Championship back in high school only adds to the intrigue.
Playoff Picture …
It’s probably (really) safe to say the Reds and Phillies are in, and there are four teams fighting for the final two spots. Here are the opponents’ average run differentials (OARD), etc. for each of these teams.
Giants (OARD = 0.36), 6 Home 5 Away - @ CHC for 2. Lead division by ½ game, potentially ½ back of WC
Braves (OARD = 28.30), 6 Home 4 Away - @ PHI for 1. Trail division by 5 games, 1 game up in WC
Padres (OARD = 19.33), 7 Home 5 Away - @ LAD for 2. Trail division by ½ game, 1 game back in WC
Rockies (OARD = 21.50), 6 Home 6 Away - @ AZ for 2. Trail division by 2 ½ games, 3 ½ games back in WC
The Giants have themselves in nice position. For one, they currently lead the division. Also, they are only ½ back from the Braves (and zero in the loss column), which is another path to the playoffs should SD or COL catch them. That being said, position means nothing if they don’t play well and continue to pitch great while praying for a few runs.
Wednesday, February 10, 2010
Zito power pitching, Lincecum finessing?!
Just yesterday, Mattew Carruth of FanGraphs posted on those pitchers that had gained and lost the most inches on their fastball from 2008 to 2009. Most people probably wouldn’t be shocked to hear that two Giants starters found themselves on the two lists: Lincecum for fastball lost and Zito for fastball gained. Lincecum was tied for the 4th largest loss in fastball among qualified pitchers with a minimum of 50 innings in both 2008 and 2009. On average, his fastball was 1.7 MPH slower in 2009 than in 2008. Zito, with an average gain of 1.6 MPH, tied for the 9th largest gain in fastball (50 inning min). This piqued my interest and thus I’d like to examine what likely caused this phenomenon for both players and how it affected their performance.
It was somewhat extensively covered by the media in the case of Lincecum, most notably when he pitched in the heat. Aside from the always insightful Krukow mentioning Zito’s extra zip during broadcasts, the extra velocity he had on his heater went by and large unnoticed. Krukow also frequently described Lincecum’s ability to back off and add speed in 2009, something the maturity he’d developed in his first one and a half seasons in the majors afforded him. Krukow believed that Lincecum had learned that it was unnecessary to throw the ball as hard as he can with each pitch. Rather, he simply could throw the ball at a more controlled level while spotting it much better. I myself grew up listening to Kruk and Kuip’s banter and I’d have to say Krukow was dead on. While it’d seem terribly optimistic to attribute 100% of the loss on his fastball speed to Lincecum’s growth as a “pitcher” from a “thrower,” I believe Krukow was correct and this was a major factor. I’m leaning towards a combination. I do think Timmy has learned to back off on the heater. But I also believe he probably lost at least a little zip on his fastball having thrown over 225 innings in each of his first two full campaigns. Many people have posited that game time temperature (specifically hot and humid weather) is the largest factor causing Lincecum to lose some fastball. I agree with this, there does seem to be strong evidence supporting this theory. But because Lincecum must have pitched in hot weather both in 2008 and 2009 I don’t see any reason why temperature could have contributed to his specific loss in fastball year to year, 2008 to 2009. Something worth noting is the fact that Lincecum most often throws a two seam fastball. While most hard throwing pitchers use the four seam fastball most often, that’s not the case with Lincecum. The two seamer does reduce the speed of the pitch but it also gives the pitch greater movement (or late life). It’s actually quite remarkable that the small statured right hander is such a flame thrower with everything stacked against him. The result of course is the two Cy Young’s on his mantle, wait, I mean in the trunk of his Mercedes.
Krukow mentioned Zito’s extra zip in 2009. Well, what do we know about what Zito did after his 2008 season? Many fans may recall that during the winter after Zito’s abysmal 2008 season (a season in which he began 0-8 followed by a deomotion to the bullpen), he joined workout guru and teammate Brian Wilson on his 6 day a week workout regimen and throwing program. Zito also began throwing long toss over a 200 foot gorge with Wilson. While a member of the Oakland A’s, Zito threw much more often and at longer distances between starts and during the offseason. He abandoned that in his first two seasons with San Francisco. This information probably paints a much clearer picture why Zito was throwing harder than why Lincecum was throwing softer.
At last, it’s time for the results:
The extra zip on Zito’s fastball definitely helped him in 2009. You can see the impact in his ERA as well as his FIP (fielding independent pitching). Also, you can see that he walked fewer batters while striking out more. He pretty much improved across the board, with exception of HR/9. Zito did give up the long ball slightly more often, however, because his WHIP (walks + hits per IP) decreased by a quarter of a base runner per inning the homeruns didn’t hurt him as badly. He posted a 4.31 FIP in 2009 which strangely enough is exactly in line with his career FIP. He posted FIP’s below 4.00 in each of his first 3 seasons (2000-2002), however, he’s posted FIP’s above 4.00 in each season thereafter. So if Zito continues to work as hard as he did last offseason this seems like a reasonable place to start projecting Zito’s performance because FIP is much more indicative of future performance than ERA. I’ve also included Zito’s WAR (Wins Above Replacement) for each season. You can see that he was worth nearly an extra win with his new (or more likely rediscovered) fastball. Oddly, Zito posted a WAR of 2.1 in 2006, i.e. his walk year and just before singing the $126 mil deal with the Giants. With this in mind, I should ask the question. Would you pay a player $126 mil coming off the season that Zito had in 2009? Well, Sabean (or maybe McGowan) thought it a good idea in the winter of 2006. This was a painful mistake the Giants have been paying for and will continue to pay for until they buy him out at a cost of $7 mil in his final option year. Another tidbit that is worth noting from Carruth's post is that, despite Zito's improved fastball, he threw it 5% less often in 2009. Why might that be? Without much statistical evidence I am going to have to hypothesize that Zito's improved arm speed resurrected his hitter freezing and demoralizing curve ball. Perhaps, he wasn't throwing the heater less often but instead was just throwing the hammer more often. It did appear to me that Zito's curve had greatly improved from the previous year in 2009.***
***UPDATE: I did actually go and look at Zito's pitches by percentage for 2008 and 2009, and the results weren't exactly what I hypothesized. Zito did throw his curve more often, however, it was only about 2% more often. Instead, Zito threw his slider much more often in 2009, doubling his percentage from 9% to 18%. An increase in arm speed would actually improve his slider so this definitely makes sense as well. The about 18% of the time he threw his curve was roughly the same percentage he used it in 2006 and 2007. In the old days, Zito threw it upwards of 20% of the time. The strangest part of his pitch percentages for me was the frequency in which Zito threw the fastball, change-up combination in 2008. His fastball was getting downright Jamie Moyer like and yet he was throwing it often and off of his change-up. It's no wonder he was gatting tattooe'd. The change-up probably didn't have anywhere close the differential between it and the fastball to make it effective, and yet, that's how he was attacking hitters. Passive aggressive much?
I’ve examined Lincecum’s numbers in a previous post and you can see here that despite his slower fastball he improved across the board. Lincecum struck batters out at virtually the same clip he had in 2008 while also substantially reducing his walk rate and limiting the home run slightly more. In fact, in 2009 Lincecum didn't give up a single home run at China Basin which is impressive in itself. You can see that he improved his WAR by over half a win and lowered his FIP. Some might think this somewhat strange considering it's believed he lost a little on his fastball. To me, his outstanding and improved 2009 statistics more lend to Krukow's theory. Lincecum wasn't throwing slower because he no longer had the arm speed to throw a pitch at the same velocity he had in 2008, but rather he was choosing to reduce the speed on his heater to harness it and place it where he wanted more often. Lincecum's change-up no doubt developed more and more into an absolutely devestating pitch in 2009. It's probably one of the nastiest pitches in the game and belongs in the conversation with Rivera's cutter. Because it is so effective Lincecum doesn't necessarily have to throw the ball 96 with each fastball he lets fly because the movement (fading down and away to lefties) and speed differential is enough that it is still just as effective. It is his change-up, not his fastball or filthy curve he was known for coming out of UW, that has made him an elite starter. Lincecum now works with 4 above average pitches (2-seam fastball, change-up, curve and slider), mixes speeds on each of them and uses both sides of the plate. Because of this, he posts outstandingly equal splits and seems to be nearly if not as effective vs. left handed batters when typically pitchers post greater numbers versus like-handed batters. He even strikes out lefties more often, which is likely much-assisted by that change-up fading left to right, down and away from lefties.
The results of this examination are pretty interesting. While Zito improved his fastball speed he had better results. While Linceum decreased his fastball speed he had better results. Both pitchers probably couldn't be more dissimilar. One lefty and one righty. One a power pitcher and the other now more of a finesse pitcher. For Zito, from one Giants fan here's to hoping he keeps his strength up and can continue to perform at his 2009 level. You can wish he starts pitching like his $126 mil contract. You can also wish in one hand and spit in the other, then see which one fills up faster. But as far as Lincecum goes, the sky is the limit. Whether or not he makes $8 mil or $13 mil next season, he's likely to continue dismantling left and right handed swings every fifth day as the ballast of the San Francisco Giants rotation.
Monday, February 8, 2010
Not so fast
Dear Mr. Neukom, SOS.
-Giants Fans
When you take a look at the Giants’ projected 2010 lineup, something is glaringly obvious: they will be incredibly slow. What little speed they had in 2009 is either likely to get far less playing time in 2010 (Burris and Velez) or left via free agency (specifically I’m speaking about the sneaky fast Randy Winn who led the team in thefts). Other players on their roster have fallen out of favor with management or the manager for unknown reasons and look to either be moved or provide depth as a bench player. Of course I am referring to Fred Lewis. Lewis is one of the few Giants on the roster returning from 2009 that possesses speed, a patient approach with on base skills and the ability to play relatively decent defense (according to UZR despite most Giants fans belief he’s terrible). With that said, when the Giants mentioned players fighting for the final outfield spot for the upcoming season, Velez, Bowker and Schierholtz were mentioned. Schierholtz is the odds on favorite because of his ability to play a very quality RF. Unfortunately, Schierholtz has pretty horrid on base skills and at least at the major league level has never shown the power he displays in batting practice and he used to show in the minors. During the conversation of who’s likely to be fighting for the final outfield spot, Lewis’ name never came up. This has been pretty shocking to me because Lewis seems like the one Giant that could and probably should hit leadoff. I personally would be thrilled if the Giants would grab up Johnny Damon at this point but the likelihood of that is about as probable as the Giants suddenly welcoming Beane’s A’s to San Jose with open arms. While Damon’s weenie arm and average to below average defensive skills are likely to cost the Giants a few runs on defense, he’s also been a ridiculously consistent offensive presence who could add some speed, on base skills, and power at the top of the lineup. Again though, not happening.
And why is there no chance the Giants are signing Damon? Well, I have run through the Giants’ 2010 payroll thus far and by my count it’s near $100 mil or even slightly over depending on Lincecum’s arbitration hearing, despite Bill Neukom recently saying something to the effect of, it’s definitely gone up but he doesn’t believe it will be $100 mil. While I don’t want to pretend that I know the Giants’ finances better than their managing general partner, I do know how to add salaries and that payroll is projected to be about that. Maybe they are more confident than I am that they can actually convince an arbiter that Lincecum is worth $2 mil less than Ryan Howard was worth 2 years ago. I’m very curious to hear their logic as taking those two figures to a hearing certainly seems like a fool’s errand to me.
Allow me to get back to the why. While Sabean promised to let the market develop on players this offseason, I don’t believe he followed through. For starters, Sabean declined Freddie Sanchez’s $8 mil 2010 option only to ink the second baseman for 2 years and $12 mil, i.e. more guaranteed money. Sanchez was coming off knee surgery (and now is coming off the more serious labrum surgery). Sanchez won’t even have to earn that $12 mil with performance incentives because it’s all guaranteed. I did like the DeRosa signing which was essentially the same as Freddie Sanchez’s, 2/ $12. The next 3 singings are what have me concerned. Sabean picked up a utility player for $3.25 mil (bringing back Uribe), a first baseman who belongs as a DH for $3 mil and brought back “that ship has sailed” Bengie Molina for $4.5 mil despite having the far cheaper and conceivably more productive rookie Buster Posey. That’s a total of $10.75 mil guaranteed. Furthermore, calling Huff a DH is probably giving him a lot of credit considering his offensive performance in 2009. Huff certainly fits the part of a DH with his lack of defensive prowess, but there are a plethora of players that were available late that would be far more productive as a DH (Thome and the still available Dye come to mind). While I do think it’s likely Huff will out hit Ishikawa, I also think it’s likely he’ll give the surplus of runs he produces with his stick right back with his glove. So instead of upgrading significantly with an everyday player, Sabean continued with the 2009 blueprint of trying to patch together a lineup with scotch tape. The Giants have a ton of players that could be useful utility players and can play pretty much all over (albeit in many cases not well*), but aren’t necessarily suited to play every day.
*Huff has played all over in his career with little success.
I’ve touched on the fact that they aren’t as good defensively in previous posts. When it also seemed apparent to me they were quite slow, I decided to try and examine that assumption – the mother of all F-ups – because an assumption is just that until it can be proven. I took all of the projected starting lineups for the NL West and averaged their top 8 hitters’ (excluding the pitchers spot) projected OBP and speed factor using Bill James’ projections on FanGraphs. This is what I got:
Giants
Spd – 3.31
OBP - .331
Dodgers
Spd – 4.04
OBP – .360
Diamondbacks
Spd – 4.59
OBP - .350
Rockies
Spd – 4.50
OBP – .360
Padres
Spd – 4.38
OBP - .341
What we can clearly see from this is that the Giants still appear to lack the ability to get on base at a league average rate and are by far the worst in the division. Exacerbating that problem is the fact that when they do manage to sneak their way on base, they are going to have to go station to station to score runs. While my method for examining their relative speed and OBP for 2010 isn't exactly bullet proof, it does provide some pretty significant evidence that the Giants won't be terribly swift. After all, Bill James' ( a pretty smart guy) projections are based on past performance. The Dodgers have the second worst average speed factor in the division and still have greater than a 20% advantage in that category. The back breaker of course is the fact that the Giants also have a serious power outage since the departure of Barry Bonds. A team that can’t get on base, runs like a team full of catchers and can’t play for the three run dinger probably isn’t going to score many runs. So if the Giants pitching staff felt they were carrying the load last year, they will probably feel more of the same this year and the defense behind them projects to do them a lot less good, too.
Sabean is out of money for the upcoming season and he’s running out of time. He may have fooled the business man Neukom thus far, but it appears his days are numbered. Frankly, he was very lucky with the timing of Peter McGowan’s departure. Neukom probably didn’t want to make such a big splash, especially coming off of a very successful season with the huge turnaround from ’08 to ’09, but if Sabean’s rosters continue to be less than impressive despite the young infusion of talent provided to him by John Barr and Dick Tidrow, Neukom will show him the door and find a new CEO. If a man who once ran the very successful Microsoft can’t understand the benefit that is the wealth of statistical information currently available to evaluate players and which Sabean ignores, who can?
Tuesday, January 19, 2010
Catching up
Brian Sabean believed way back in October that Molina would leave the city by the bay for a more lucrative offer (he was fairly hotly coveted by the other oft criticized GM by the saber community, Omar Minaya (Mets)). However, Molina was reported to of declined their latest offer in the last 24 hours. I don’t think the details are yet known, but it seems that Molina and the Mets never could quite agree on dollars are probably more so guaranteed years. Molina was asking for somewhere between 2-3 years and the Mets only willing to offer 1-2.
There currently are no reliable defensive metrics for catchers (UZR, etc). FanGraphs doesn’t even bother listing defensive value for catchers. So, when compiling his value he is considered equal amongst his peers defensively. This probably isn’t the case. Though he did not win the 2009 AL Gold Glove, most advanced scouts believed Gerald Laird to be the best defensive catcher in the AL. Thus his true value would probably exceed that listed by FanGraphs. In terms of Molina, he no longer is particularly good at throwing out runners (though pitchers like Lincecum don’t do him any favors) and at times looks more than a little lazy. He simply doesn’t block the ball well anymore. Furthermore, any player at a skill position (C, SS, 2B, 3B, CF in this order) gets additional value points for simply playing that position. For C (12.5 runs) and SS (7.5 runs), that extra value is pretty substantial (especially when compared to 1B (-12.5 runs) and DH (-17.5 runs) which both get negative values. And because we have no reliable defensive statistic for the C position, Molina is awarded the full 12.5 runs. For other positions, their total value is either diminished or added to depending on their UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating). For example, Adrian Belte’s total value is his offensive value, the 2.5 runs for playing third base and his UZR. Now, one could argue that were Molina an above average defensive catcher his full value is not properly being displayed by FanGraphs. But I don’t know anyone that would attempt to argue that. On the plus side I will say that he’s been quite durable for the Giants.
All in all, Molina is a perfectly fine hitting catcher, especially because most catchers are pretty terrible hitters. My problems are 1) I believe he is at least a lazy catcher 2) I think Bochy might be tempted to continue to hit him cleanup 3) He’s sensitive and sure to complain and gripe if Posey is brought up and 4) the Giants have Buster Posey. Posey who is going to cost $400 K in 2010. I have in the past and will continue to argue that Posey should be able to at least replace Molina statistically if not exceed his contributions.
I do believe this is a clear misallocation of resources. The Giants clearly have a finite amount of money to upgrade their team and I don’t think $4.5 mil towards a catcher, when the Giants already have a catcher capable of equaling his production or exceeding it at a cost of $400k, is money well spent.
Anyway… the Giants clearly hold different evaluations for players than I (or most the rest of baseball) and so it shouldn’t be seen as a surprise. Plus, I’m sure Bochy and Sabean will argue this gives them a good mentor for Posey. Catcher is quite a tricky position (and one which Bochy himself played) and so they probably do have some point. But I am sure to some degree they are overplaying the importance of having a veteran backstop to mentor Posey and anchor the pitching staff. Furthermore, had Posey been given more of an opportunity to settle in offensively (via pinch hitting) and as a catcher (after the Giants were eliminated) down the stretch in 2009 they’d probably have a much better idea of what they could expect in 2010.
On the upside, they’ve reduced their risk to pretty much 0% at the catcher position which can’t be all horrible with all the question marks (see my previous post) they currently have on the roster. What’s more? Sabean will probably take comfort when the bay area writers uniformly praise the Giants for this move.
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