Giants' bullpen: Shutdowns & Meltdowns

I wrote about a couple of stats -- shutdowns and meltdowns -- I learned of on FanGraphs yesterday, thanks to Steve Slowinski, over at Bay City Ball. I wasn't shocked to learn which Giants' relievers had the best shutdown to meltdown ratios. Here's an excerpt:

I’ve also recently heard such ridiculous statements as: “I just don’t trust Romo, he’s always giving up big hits.” Well, he may not be Wilson, but he’s more trustworthy than Affeldt, Lopez, etc. Things like giving up game-wining home runs to Manny Ramirez tend to stick out in fans’ minds, while the countless number of times he whiffed batter after batter with his patented Frisbee slider do not.  Biases develop throughout a long season and throughout several seasons while fans follow a team. The most significant moments often cloud the judgement of the observer. Be mindful of this – Aaron Rowand is not the worst player of all time, Barry Zito‘s not the worst starter. And no, Jack Morris is not a Hall of Famer despite his heroic, 10-inning shutout in game seven of the 1991 World Series; these biases go both ways.

Read it all at Bay City Ball, and don't miss Chris' Brandon Belt graph or Otis' thoughts on last night's hams, either.

Losing to the Padres

Why I'd rather have a hole in my head than watch the Giants lose to the Padres again. Plus:

Other things that are better than watching the Giants lose to the Padres:

1) Listening to every Nickelback song ever recorded in a single sitting
2) Watching From Justin to Kelly
3) Watching my fiancé file her nails – which just so happens to be my nails-on-a-chalkboard poison
4) Watching Yuniesky Betancourt play baseball
5) Listening to Joe Morgan disparage sabermetrics
6) Reading every word Murray Chass has ever written…

700,062) Instead of muting the television and watching the playoffs: closing your eyes and just listening to Tim McCarver and Joe Buck

The entire piece is at Bay City Ball.

Giants' (and Huff's) weekend

For those of you that missed the Giants game last night, here's Aubrey Huff's outfield contribution -- and the Giants' entire weekend, really -- in a nutshell. I promise it'll bring you more enjoyment than watching the actual game:

Giants hand three of four to Bums

In the Giants' defense... wait, this is starting to sound like an oxymoron. What an ugly, ugly, weekend. Here's what I wrote at Bay City Ball, touching on Zito's slowball, Tejada, the bullpen and Huff's... whatever you want call what he was doing in right field:

The Giants gave the Dodgers a drubbing on Saturday afternoon, beating them 10-0 behind a what-we’ve-come-to-expect start by Matt Cain. It was a six-inning, four-leaf-clover charmed effort with only three strikeouts. Three strikeouts! What a fraud. Fortunately, his luck will run out in another 1,000 innings or so. Other than that, they looked (and smelled) like hot garbage on Thursday, Friday and Sunday while more or less handing three of four to the archrival Dodgers...

It’s too early to be too concerned about this. It really is. For one, Huff didn’t get nearly enough reps in the outfield in spring training. When Cody Ross went down with a calf injury late in the exhibition schedule, the Giants’ brass were forced to more seriously consider Belt as an option to make the club. Prior to that, the Giants were not seriously considering the possibility that Huff would have to play right field. Not so soon, anyway. Still, though, San Francisco owes Huff $22 million over the next two seasons and he’s currently a man without a position. If Belt continues to produce – we have reason to believe he might, given the quality of his at bats so far – Huff’s not going back to first. And at his age, he’s not going to get any better as a water buffalo grazing in the outfield grass.

Read the whole enchilada here.

Analysis of Freddy Sanchez extension

Yesterday, the Giants extended Freddy Sanchez for another year (2012) for another $6 million. After the jump, I'll peel off a few-hundred words on how I feel about the deal.

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Actually, me and the fiancé are about to go check out Win Win; it looks good, and I really enjoy Paul Giamatti. I really do. Plus, I have a quicker way to break this deal down. That's what I call a win win.

Lincecum's Opening Day velocity

Tim Lincecum didn't have either his best changeup or best slider last night, but he got by, despite the defense behind him playing terrible.

His line was seven innings, five hits, three walks, five strikeouts and one unearned run. He took the loss. It was understandable, though, as Clayton Kershaw wasn't just better, he was brilliant. With the shadows and glare masking his pitches in the early going, it was no wonder he was sending the Giants' hitters back to the dugout shaking their heads. He outpitched the Giants' ace.

But if there was one thing specifically that was encouraging -- aside from Brandon Belt's impressive debut -- it was that Lincecum's velocity was both quality and steady. According to the PITCHf/x tool from Brooks Baseball, Tim threw 57 fastballs (40 four-seam, 17 two-seam). His four-seam heater averaged 93 mph and he topped out at 95. His two-seam fastball averaged just over 93 mph and topped out at 94.7. More impressive than that, it hardly waned even into the seventh inning:

Pulled from here.

Compare that to his velocity on Opening Day 2010:

Pulled from here.

From the very first start of 2010, he showed an inability to maintain velocity throughout the game. Lincecum will probably never be a high-90s power arm again. But hopefully, with an apparent commitment to conditioning, Lincecum will be able to maintain above-average fastball speed with his devastating changeup and the nasty slider he rolled out in September and rode to a World Championship in October and November.
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I wrote about Santiago Casilla yesterday at Bay City Ball. My thoughts on his spring (and day) were far less encouraging.

Fear the Beard

A glimpse at getting in the box against Brian Wilson, sort of.

Opening Day Preview: Blind Optimism

If you look hard enough, you'll find me:

What better day is there, other than Opening Day, to have what can only be described as blind optimism? Easy. It’s Opening Day… after winning the World Series for the first time in 53 San Francisco seasons. I know, I know, you’re tickled. Me too.
 
Yesterday, I concluded that Brandon Belt would make his major league debut tonight at Chavez Ravine against Clayton Kershaw, and I was pretty okay with the notion. I was right. What a powder-puff first assignment. I mean, Kershaw isn’t that much like Sandy Koufax.
 
Let’s get into it.
 
Team by team in order of relevance...

Belt looks headed to Hollywood, not Fresno

At Bay City Ball, I break down why I think handing first base to Brandon Belt is a good decision. Even if he struggles, the Giants will have options.

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Last night, a tweet by John Shea really sent shockwaves throughout the Giants’ fan base:

Heard management wants to keep Brandon Belt, leaning toward making him their starting first baseman. Announcement Wednesday.

At the risk of jumping the gun, I think Belt’s going to be playing in Los Angeles tomorrow. And it’s not so much the tweet by Shea, but the fact that Travis Ishikawa is playing first base today and Belt isn’t even so much as in the lineup. He has bags to pack and a plane to catch; he’s probably headed to Hollywood.
 
I won’t get too much into the details on what this means for the roster. Except I do think this is a farewell game for the aforementioned Ishikawa. He’s an excellent defender, a great guy, and a decent bat off the bench – assuming he’s facing a right-handed pitcher. I’ll also never forget the walk he drew in the divisional series against the Braves that keyed a Giants comeback win. Without that walk, who knows, maybe they don’t win the World Series. But with Belt now in the fold and the incumbent Aubrey Huff, this renders Ishi a superfluous commodity, and frankly one that lacked a ton of utility to begin with...

The rest is at the Giants' ESPN SweetSpot blog, Bay City Ball.

2011 MLB Predictions

My 2011 predictions can be found here (Hardball Times staff predictions), along with those of my colleagues.