24 July 2011
Dear Bruce and Brian,
I watched the game today. It was really awesome that you let Brandon Belt play again. Not only because he did really good by getting two hits and getting on base three times, but because he is my favorite player.
I must say, though, I was a little surprised he was playing outfield. It doesn’t seem like his natural position. Plus, I remember everyone saying that he was such a superb first baseman, and even J.T. Snow, who was like Keith Hernandez at first without the cocaine and the mustache, said he was excellent.
And also, Aubrey Huff, the guy that I really like but don’t want to play so much, he hasn’t looked so hot lately. But I guess maybe a few outfielders were banged up. Ya, that’s it.
But I guess you can’t argue with results! A win! Keep up the good work.
Sincerely,
The Biggest Giants Fan
Insightful baseball analysis for the casual crowd, Moneyball masses and you, the Third and King crew
Showing posts with label Brandon Belt. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Brandon Belt. Show all posts
Saturday, July 30, 2011
Letters to Sabean and Bochy
I wrote a piece at Bay City Ball entitled Letters to Brian Sabean and Bruce Bochy. Go read it and laugh, or cry, or get angry, or do whatever it is you're gonna do. Excerpt;
Wednesday, March 30, 2011
Belt looks headed to Hollywood, not Fresno
At Bay City Ball, I break down why I think handing first base to Brandon Belt is a good decision. Even if he struggles, the Giants will have options.
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Last night, a tweet by John Shea really sent shockwaves throughout the Giants’ fan base:
At the risk of jumping the gun, I think Belt’s going to be playing in Los Angeles tomorrow. And it’s not so much the tweet by Shea, but the fact that Travis Ishikawa is playing first base today and Belt isn’t even so much as in the lineup. He has bags to pack and a plane to catch; he’s probably headed to Hollywood.
I won’t get too much into the details on what this means for the roster. Except I do think this is a farewell game for the aforementioned Ishikawa. He’s an excellent defender, a great guy, and a decent bat off the bench – assuming he’s facing a right-handed pitcher. I’ll also never forget the walk he drew in the divisional series against the Braves that keyed a Giants comeback win. Without that walk, who knows, maybe they don’t win the World Series. But with Belt now in the fold and the incumbent Aubrey Huff, this renders Ishi a superfluous commodity, and frankly one that lacked a ton of utility to begin with...
The rest is at the Giants' ESPN SweetSpot blog, Bay City Ball.
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Last night, a tweet by John Shea really sent shockwaves throughout the Giants’ fan base:
Heard management wants to keep Brandon Belt, leaning toward making him their starting first baseman. Announcement Wednesday.
At the risk of jumping the gun, I think Belt’s going to be playing in Los Angeles tomorrow. And it’s not so much the tweet by Shea, but the fact that Travis Ishikawa is playing first base today and Belt isn’t even so much as in the lineup. He has bags to pack and a plane to catch; he’s probably headed to Hollywood.
I won’t get too much into the details on what this means for the roster. Except I do think this is a farewell game for the aforementioned Ishikawa. He’s an excellent defender, a great guy, and a decent bat off the bench – assuming he’s facing a right-handed pitcher. I’ll also never forget the walk he drew in the divisional series against the Braves that keyed a Giants comeback win. Without that walk, who knows, maybe they don’t win the World Series. But with Belt now in the fold and the incumbent Aubrey Huff, this renders Ishi a superfluous commodity, and frankly one that lacked a ton of utility to begin with...
The rest is at the Giants' ESPN SweetSpot blog, Bay City Ball.
Thursday, March 17, 2011
What you risk when you send Brandon Belt to Fresno
I'm writing this from my iPhone, so when you find the first error, know that and move on.
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I asked a question to myself today, and "fired it through the Internet," as Ron Gardenhire would say. I used Twitter, the preferred method of the times. My question: Are Brian Sabean's recent comments -- Brandon Belt might be ready, and he's opened up some eyes this spring -- obligatory, or are they sincere? Which is to ask, is he simply saying this so we all don't grumble that, when he does send him to Triple-A, he's done so to delay his seemingly inevitable date with arbitration, or, is he actually contemplating placing Belt at first on Opening Day at Chavez Ravine?
A fellow blogger, the Crazy Crabbers, wondered what the harm would be in being cautious:
It could be that there's no harm at all. Or, it could be disastrous. Here's why: If, when you leave a talented player in the minor leagues, you're not putting the best team you can on the field, you're playing a dangerous game. There's something to be said for putting your best team on the field, you know, because that's what wins you the most baseball games. The Giants played this game last year, gambled, and won. They "preferred" Bengie Molina to Buster Posey on Opening Day, and for the first couple of months. Then, when Posey was good and "ready," they brought him to San Francisco. There's little doubt that he helped the Giants win more games than Molina would have. There's little doubt they won fewer when Molina was starting every day in April and May.
What if the Padres don't lose 11 games in a row? What if, the Giants lost Sunday, October 3, 2010, and again on Monday. What if they then lose to the Braves? Well, because hindsight is 20/20: the Giants don't just miss the playoffs, they lose a World Series championship. They lose a parade of one million people rejoicing in the splendor of the first championship in San Francisco Giants history. They lose an awful lot.
I'm not saying Belt is ready or that he gives them the best chance to win. That's for Sabean and his minions to decide. But if he is, and they send him to Fresno, it's a crying shame. You might gain another year of Belt and save some money, but you potentially lose Who Knows What. that's the harm: The unknown.
The Giants aren't such favorites that a few wins shouldn't matter. A few wins might decide the division. Plus, wasn't it refreshing when Jason Heyward made the Opening Day roster of the Braves last year? I sure thought so. Something tells me the Braves' brass was also refreshed when Heyward helped propel his team to the first round of the playoffs. And finally, I'm not the least bit convinced a great deal of harm can be done by bringing a player up to soon, and having him experience a bit of failure. Show me the study that says it'll ruin a young hitter, and we can talk.
----
I'm now boarding to Scottsdale. Finally.
----
I asked a question to myself today, and "fired it through the Internet," as Ron Gardenhire would say. I used Twitter, the preferred method of the times. My question: Are Brian Sabean's recent comments -- Brandon Belt might be ready, and he's opened up some eyes this spring -- obligatory, or are they sincere? Which is to ask, is he simply saying this so we all don't grumble that, when he does send him to Triple-A, he's done so to delay his seemingly inevitable date with arbitration, or, is he actually contemplating placing Belt at first on Opening Day at Chavez Ravine?
A fellow blogger, the Crazy Crabbers, wondered what the harm would be in being cautious:
I don't see there being a huge downside for waiting but there is in bringing him up too soon. What is wrong with [a] cautious approach?
It could be that there's no harm at all. Or, it could be disastrous. Here's why: If, when you leave a talented player in the minor leagues, you're not putting the best team you can on the field, you're playing a dangerous game. There's something to be said for putting your best team on the field, you know, because that's what wins you the most baseball games. The Giants played this game last year, gambled, and won. They "preferred" Bengie Molina to Buster Posey on Opening Day, and for the first couple of months. Then, when Posey was good and "ready," they brought him to San Francisco. There's little doubt that he helped the Giants win more games than Molina would have. There's little doubt they won fewer when Molina was starting every day in April and May.
What if the Padres don't lose 11 games in a row? What if, the Giants lost Sunday, October 3, 2010, and again on Monday. What if they then lose to the Braves? Well, because hindsight is 20/20: the Giants don't just miss the playoffs, they lose a World Series championship. They lose a parade of one million people rejoicing in the splendor of the first championship in San Francisco Giants history. They lose an awful lot.
I'm not saying Belt is ready or that he gives them the best chance to win. That's for Sabean and his minions to decide. But if he is, and they send him to Fresno, it's a crying shame. You might gain another year of Belt and save some money, but you potentially lose Who Knows What. that's the harm: The unknown.
The Giants aren't such favorites that a few wins shouldn't matter. A few wins might decide the division. Plus, wasn't it refreshing when Jason Heyward made the Opening Day roster of the Braves last year? I sure thought so. Something tells me the Braves' brass was also refreshed when Heyward helped propel his team to the first round of the playoffs. And finally, I'm not the least bit convinced a great deal of harm can be done by bringing a player up to soon, and having him experience a bit of failure. Show me the study that says it'll ruin a young hitter, and we can talk.
----
I'm now boarding to Scottsdale. Finally.
Monday, February 28, 2011
Pressing Giants questions...
… like: What’s Buster Posey’s favorite food? And: Why doesn’t Barry Zito throw harder?
These questions are particularly burning because people sought answers to them and found my site in lieu of what they were seeking. At least that’s what my fancy Blogger “Stats” told me. Unfortunate, I know.
I guess I’ll give it my best in the event these two – unless, it was one person with each of these pertinent, brilliant questions – return for the answer. You know, because maybe each of them is a glass half full type.
So, what is Buster’s favorite food… in the whole wide world? I think this is fairly obvious, but we’ve already headed down this path so…
Posey’s favorite food is belt-high fastballs on the outer half of the plate. As Brian Wilson would say: Posey finds them particularly delicious.
Finally: Why doesn’t Zito throw harder? Great question. Simple answer. He can’t.
Ok, so maybe those weren’t the answers they were looking for. You just can’t please everyone. But for those of you that found this an utterly ridiculous waste of time, I do have some recourse.
Brandon Belt had three hits in his first start this spring today. He punched a single to center to score Travis Ishikawa. Then, directly following that and displaying his athleticism, he scored from first on a hit-and-run double by Brad Eldred. Later, he smashed a three-run double to right center field. For an encore, he clubbed an opposite-field double off of the base of the left-center field wall. So there’s that. Delicious.
Notice how I didn’t say he “belted” any of those pitches? I’ll refrain for now. Personally, I prefer to hear Duane Kuiper bellow that when he hits his first big league home run.
These questions are particularly burning because people sought answers to them and found my site in lieu of what they were seeking. At least that’s what my fancy Blogger “Stats” told me. Unfortunate, I know.
I guess I’ll give it my best in the event these two – unless, it was one person with each of these pertinent, brilliant questions – return for the answer. You know, because maybe each of them is a glass half full type.
So, what is Buster’s favorite food… in the whole wide world? I think this is fairly obvious, but we’ve already headed down this path so…
Posey’s favorite food is belt-high fastballs on the outer half of the plate. As Brian Wilson would say: Posey finds them particularly delicious.
Finally: Why doesn’t Zito throw harder? Great question. Simple answer. He can’t.
Ok, so maybe those weren’t the answers they were looking for. You just can’t please everyone. But for those of you that found this an utterly ridiculous waste of time, I do have some recourse.
Brandon Belt had three hits in his first start this spring today. He punched a single to center to score Travis Ishikawa. Then, directly following that and displaying his athleticism, he scored from first on a hit-and-run double by Brad Eldred. Later, he smashed a three-run double to right center field. For an encore, he clubbed an opposite-field double off of the base of the left-center field wall. So there’s that. Delicious.
Notice how I didn’t say he “belted” any of those pitches? I’ll refrain for now. Personally, I prefer to hear Duane Kuiper bellow that when he hits his first big league home run.
Friday, February 25, 2011
Buster Posey anchors Giants’ offense
First, the rules…
The rule is that every conversation about the Giants’ offense starts and stops with Buster Posey. The second rule is that the rules will undoubtedly change and they’ll change at the time of my choosing. Glad we have that squared away.
I said I might do a follow up post about players’ projections following my previous installment at Paapfly: Baseball Prospectus is bullish on Giants. I’d like to make good on that promise here and now.
As you might expect, rather, as you would expect – this is assuming that you were paying any attention to the ever important rules I’ve outlined above, while also assuming* they have not changed – we start with Posey.
*Rule of thumb: Don’t assume anything.
Posey took home the Rookie of the Year award in the Senior Circuit for the 2010 season, edging another eminently talented fellow named Jason Heyward. I’m happy to report that Baseball Prospectus (BP) again expects Posey to perform at a high level.
They are projecting him to hit .289/.358/.462 – meaning average/on-base percentage/slugging percentage – which isn’t far off from his .305/.357/.505 line from a year ago. What you can take from that is they don’t expect Posey to hit for as much power as he did a year ago (given the 43 point drop in slugging), but do expect him to draw a few more walks. Over 500 plate appearances (PA), their guess is 16 home runs for Buster. For what it’s worth, he hit 18 in 443 PA in 2010.
Baseball Prospectus has their own way of doing things and project 3.6 Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP) for Posey. To be honest, I’m not very well versed in their system because it’s not free and I grew up on (read: learned about a year ago on) FanGraphs. But I don’t think anyone on their site would be upset if I said WARP is more or less their version of Wins above replacement (WAR). In any case, you might assume a 3.6 WARP isn’t much, but it’s pretty darn good considering their only projected 5.0+ WARP position player is Albert Pujols.
Before you ask, allow me: Will Posey really lose long-ball power, not hit .300 and walk more? Maybe, maybe not, but I certainly have no problem with what they’ve provided. I think him drawing more walks is an excellent bet. I also think he’s likely to hit in a band around .300, meaning perhaps a bit higher or lower. In terms of pop, I can see it going either way. He could hit about as many home runs, a few more, or a few less. None of the three would shock me.
He’s an excellent hitter but he’s not likely to be a 30 home run guy in my opinion; he’s more likely to fall in the high-teens to mid-twenties if all is going as we expect. With the quality on-base percentage (OBP), ability to hit for a good average and the simple fact that he’s a catcher and they traditionally don’t hit at all, that’s excellent production for a catcher.
This is an excellent place for me to say something that I’ve been meaning to. For those of you who think Posey should move to shortstop – I’ve seriously read or heard this a number of times, believe it or not – to third base, or to first base: stop. I mean it: please stop.
After Posey, BP is particularly optimistic about Pablo Sandoval. This is excellent news. It’s also a great time to drop a wonderful nugget from the awesome Craig Calcaterra, who just so happens to be watching the Giants’ first spring training game this morning:
Not knowing just exactly in how good of shape Pablo would be for the season, BP has Sandoval at a 3.0 WARP with a line of .299/.346/.464 with 17 home runs. That’s far better than his 2010, though of course not near the production he had in 2009. Here’s the thing with Pablo though: the sky is sort of the limit. With his lost weight, added strength and no doubt improvement in agility, he should improve in all facets of the game. I want to curb my optimism some, but I’m feeling extremely encouraged about this young man right now.
If his bat once again plays in the middle of the order with Posey and at some point, Brandon Belt – more on him later – the Giants’ offense shouldn’t have too much trouble accomplishing what’s needed to win: mediocrity. That’s right folks, when you have stellar pitching in both your rotation and bullpen, you win a lot of games by merely scoring a league average number of runs. You can even win a World Series.
I won’t get into too much detail, but others of note are Andres Torres, projected to hit .251/.320/.412. The projection isn’t a surprise, but I’ll take the over on that. He’s also the only player projected to steal double-digit stolen bases (20). They see a sharp decline in Aubrey Huff (.263/.336/.431) – no surprise there, he’ll have to prove 2010 wasn’t a fluke. They aren’t expecting much from Mark DeRosa after two wrist surgeries. In short: 127 lack-luster plate appearances. Rounding out the rest are Pat Burrell (.232/.342/.418 and 1.0 WARP), Cody Ross (.259/.313/.429 and 1.6 WARP) and Miguel Tejada (.269/.306/.375 and 1.4 WARP).
I know, I know, it feels like I’m rushing. That’s because I am. I want to get to Brandon Belt. I hinted in my previous piece that Belt is projected to produce the second best line on the Giants. They have him at .269/.359/.456. That there’s good stuff. Belt put up a prodigious minor league campaign in his first as a professional last season. It was huge. Anyway, if you want a real life example of how a season with a similar line and excellent defense at first base might look, look no further than Ike Davis’ 2010. He was a down-ballot Rookie of the Year candidate last year. He’s not a star, but he’s better than James Loney.
Davis hit .261/.351/.440 with a .345 weighted on-base average (wOBA) and was worth 3.4 wins because he was also playing excellent defense at first base, just as Belt is expected to do. What’s more, he’s another tall left-handed hitter at 6’4”. Belt’s projected line is slightly better than Davis’ and probably worth something like a .350 wOBA. That’s not great for a first baseman – it is better than league average – but when coupled with very good defense is perfectly playable. Also, it’s a lot more than you should ever ask from a rookie.
It’s worth pointing out that what BP is saying is essentially that Belt should be a better player in 2011 than Aubrey Huff. It’s far too early to know that for sure. Belt is still nothing but a prospect, though a top one, and Huff is still a player that had a resurgent season in 2010, though he’s not getting any younger. What’s probably assured in all this is the fact that Belt would be a defensive upgrade from Huff and that Huff would be no worse in left than Burrell; he might be better. Food for thought.
Unfortunately, here’s an enormous stick in the spoke, gum on the roller blade, sugar in the gas tank. Will Belt make his way to San Francisco at some point this season? BP says he’ll only take 100 plate appearances, but that seems ridiculous to me. No, while I don’t believe Sabean will dare give Belt a start on opening day, I do believe he’ll be up just as soon as one of three things happen: 1) his service time is no longer an issue, i.e. around May, 2) the Giants’ offense is running on fumes and needs a bump or 3) he’s obliterating the ball so absurdly in Fresno that Sabean has no choice but to cave to the cries for his summon.
I prefer option three, personally. Sounds awesome. But we’ll all just have to wait and see. Baseball Prospectus is about as optimistic about the Giants as they have been in years, so I’m told. So I’m told, last year they recommended Brian Sabean’s dismissal. Right or wrong, their enthusiasm for this year’s squad seems genuine and far less obligatory given their status as defending champs. It should be another exciting year. That’s really all you can ask for.
Finally, the rules have not changed and we’re still technically talking the Giants’ offense. So: Buster Posey.
I’ll make no promises here to dabble in BP’s projections on the pitching. I won’t say I won’t take a look at them either. But it’s just not as interesting to me, for whatever reason. Suffice to say, the holistic take on the pitching staff is that it’s very, very good.
The rule is that every conversation about the Giants’ offense starts and stops with Buster Posey. The second rule is that the rules will undoubtedly change and they’ll change at the time of my choosing. Glad we have that squared away.
I said I might do a follow up post about players’ projections following my previous installment at Paapfly: Baseball Prospectus is bullish on Giants. I’d like to make good on that promise here and now.
As you might expect, rather, as you would expect – this is assuming that you were paying any attention to the ever important rules I’ve outlined above, while also assuming* they have not changed – we start with Posey.
*Rule of thumb: Don’t assume anything.
Posey took home the Rookie of the Year award in the Senior Circuit for the 2010 season, edging another eminently talented fellow named Jason Heyward. I’m happy to report that Baseball Prospectus (BP) again expects Posey to perform at a high level.
They are projecting him to hit .289/.358/.462 – meaning average/on-base percentage/slugging percentage – which isn’t far off from his .305/.357/.505 line from a year ago. What you can take from that is they don’t expect Posey to hit for as much power as he did a year ago (given the 43 point drop in slugging), but do expect him to draw a few more walks. Over 500 plate appearances (PA), their guess is 16 home runs for Buster. For what it’s worth, he hit 18 in 443 PA in 2010.
Baseball Prospectus has their own way of doing things and project 3.6 Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP) for Posey. To be honest, I’m not very well versed in their system because it’s not free and I grew up on (read: learned about a year ago on) FanGraphs. But I don’t think anyone on their site would be upset if I said WARP is more or less their version of Wins above replacement (WAR). In any case, you might assume a 3.6 WARP isn’t much, but it’s pretty darn good considering their only projected 5.0+ WARP position player is Albert Pujols.
Before you ask, allow me: Will Posey really lose long-ball power, not hit .300 and walk more? Maybe, maybe not, but I certainly have no problem with what they’ve provided. I think him drawing more walks is an excellent bet. I also think he’s likely to hit in a band around .300, meaning perhaps a bit higher or lower. In terms of pop, I can see it going either way. He could hit about as many home runs, a few more, or a few less. None of the three would shock me.
He’s an excellent hitter but he’s not likely to be a 30 home run guy in my opinion; he’s more likely to fall in the high-teens to mid-twenties if all is going as we expect. With the quality on-base percentage (OBP), ability to hit for a good average and the simple fact that he’s a catcher and they traditionally don’t hit at all, that’s excellent production for a catcher.
This is an excellent place for me to say something that I’ve been meaning to. For those of you who think Posey should move to shortstop – I’ve seriously read or heard this a number of times, believe it or not – to third base, or to first base: stop. I mean it: please stop.
After Posey, BP is particularly optimistic about Pablo Sandoval. This is excellent news. It’s also a great time to drop a wonderful nugget from the awesome Craig Calcaterra, who just so happens to be watching the Giants’ first spring training game this morning:
It’s been written several times already, but seeing Pablo Sandoval up close really brings home how much damn weight he has lost. He doesn’t merely look good for a fat guy. He looks good. And it’s not just fat. His shoulders and arms are fairly awesome. And it may or may not be worth noting that he love, love, loves to sing aloud and dance some to his iPod.Please do read the whole post from Craig. It’s funny. It’s about the Giants. What’s not to like?
Not knowing just exactly in how good of shape Pablo would be for the season, BP has Sandoval at a 3.0 WARP with a line of .299/.346/.464 with 17 home runs. That’s far better than his 2010, though of course not near the production he had in 2009. Here’s the thing with Pablo though: the sky is sort of the limit. With his lost weight, added strength and no doubt improvement in agility, he should improve in all facets of the game. I want to curb my optimism some, but I’m feeling extremely encouraged about this young man right now.
If his bat once again plays in the middle of the order with Posey and at some point, Brandon Belt – more on him later – the Giants’ offense shouldn’t have too much trouble accomplishing what’s needed to win: mediocrity. That’s right folks, when you have stellar pitching in both your rotation and bullpen, you win a lot of games by merely scoring a league average number of runs. You can even win a World Series.
I won’t get into too much detail, but others of note are Andres Torres, projected to hit .251/.320/.412. The projection isn’t a surprise, but I’ll take the over on that. He’s also the only player projected to steal double-digit stolen bases (20). They see a sharp decline in Aubrey Huff (.263/.336/.431) – no surprise there, he’ll have to prove 2010 wasn’t a fluke. They aren’t expecting much from Mark DeRosa after two wrist surgeries. In short: 127 lack-luster plate appearances. Rounding out the rest are Pat Burrell (.232/.342/.418 and 1.0 WARP), Cody Ross (.259/.313/.429 and 1.6 WARP) and Miguel Tejada (.269/.306/.375 and 1.4 WARP).
I know, I know, it feels like I’m rushing. That’s because I am. I want to get to Brandon Belt. I hinted in my previous piece that Belt is projected to produce the second best line on the Giants. They have him at .269/.359/.456. That there’s good stuff. Belt put up a prodigious minor league campaign in his first as a professional last season. It was huge. Anyway, if you want a real life example of how a season with a similar line and excellent defense at first base might look, look no further than Ike Davis’ 2010. He was a down-ballot Rookie of the Year candidate last year. He’s not a star, but he’s better than James Loney.
Davis hit .261/.351/.440 with a .345 weighted on-base average (wOBA) and was worth 3.4 wins because he was also playing excellent defense at first base, just as Belt is expected to do. What’s more, he’s another tall left-handed hitter at 6’4”. Belt’s projected line is slightly better than Davis’ and probably worth something like a .350 wOBA. That’s not great for a first baseman – it is better than league average – but when coupled with very good defense is perfectly playable. Also, it’s a lot more than you should ever ask from a rookie.
It’s worth pointing out that what BP is saying is essentially that Belt should be a better player in 2011 than Aubrey Huff. It’s far too early to know that for sure. Belt is still nothing but a prospect, though a top one, and Huff is still a player that had a resurgent season in 2010, though he’s not getting any younger. What’s probably assured in all this is the fact that Belt would be a defensive upgrade from Huff and that Huff would be no worse in left than Burrell; he might be better. Food for thought.
Unfortunately, here’s an enormous stick in the spoke, gum on the roller blade, sugar in the gas tank. Will Belt make his way to San Francisco at some point this season? BP says he’ll only take 100 plate appearances, but that seems ridiculous to me. No, while I don’t believe Sabean will dare give Belt a start on opening day, I do believe he’ll be up just as soon as one of three things happen: 1) his service time is no longer an issue, i.e. around May, 2) the Giants’ offense is running on fumes and needs a bump or 3) he’s obliterating the ball so absurdly in Fresno that Sabean has no choice but to cave to the cries for his summon.
I prefer option three, personally. Sounds awesome. But we’ll all just have to wait and see. Baseball Prospectus is about as optimistic about the Giants as they have been in years, so I’m told. So I’m told, last year they recommended Brian Sabean’s dismissal. Right or wrong, their enthusiasm for this year’s squad seems genuine and far less obligatory given their status as defending champs. It should be another exciting year. That’s really all you can ask for.
Finally, the rules have not changed and we’re still technically talking the Giants’ offense. So: Buster Posey.
I’ll make no promises here to dabble in BP’s projections on the pitching. I won’t say I won’t take a look at them either. But it’s just not as interesting to me, for whatever reason. Suffice to say, the holistic take on the pitching staff is that it’s very, very good.
Wednesday, February 16, 2011
Lincecum not complacent
There should be quite a few exciting storylines in Giants camp this spring and that’s leaving aside the most obvious one: it’s their first as defending champs (as San Francisco Giants). One of the most exciting among them will be the progress of a promising young first baseman named Brandon Belt. I say first baseman knowing that his road to the big leagues might be left field, though if I had my way, given the plus first baseman that he is, I might stick him at first and push Aubrey Huff to left. If you have not heard of Belt yet… where have you been?
Another story that’s likely to get plenty of play is that of the husky third baseman, Pablo Sandoval. Panda has been snapping pictures of himself all winter and showing off his slimmer figure; this is wonderful news for Giants fans to be sure. Whether or not that translates into on-field results remains to be seen. My gut feeling is that he is going to have a big year and will once again be a serviceable third baseman defensively. I won’t say a .330 average and near .400 weight on-base average (wOBA) is necessarily in the cards, but I think it’s a safe bet he recaptures some of that promise he catapulted onto the seen with in 2008 and 2009.
After the jump, here’s my favorite piece of info from camp so far, via Extra Baggs:
Another story that’s likely to get plenty of play is that of the husky third baseman, Pablo Sandoval. Panda has been snapping pictures of himself all winter and showing off his slimmer figure; this is wonderful news for Giants fans to be sure. Whether or not that translates into on-field results remains to be seen. My gut feeling is that he is going to have a big year and will once again be a serviceable third baseman defensively. I won’t say a .330 average and near .400 weight on-base average (wOBA) is necessarily in the cards, but I think it’s a safe bet he recaptures some of that promise he catapulted onto the seen with in 2008 and 2009.
After the jump, here’s my favorite piece of info from camp so far, via Extra Baggs:
Monday, February 14, 2011
Lincecums and Poseys report
It’s pitchers and catchers day. Needless to say, that means today is a fantastic day. In about one month’s time, my brothers and I (the proprietor of this weblog) will head to Scottsdale for my brother’s bachelor party. When we first made plans to do this trip, whether or not the Giants would even quality for postseason play was very much up in the air. Then the Giants won it all and the anticipation for our trip went from that for Cars 2 to Scream 4.
A couple of things of note – calling it worth mentioning is highly debatable – so far this spring are that Pat Burrell has switched from number nine to number five, Brandon Belt claims number nine and Miguel Tejada number 10, leaving number 35 for Travis Ishikawa. Yup, it’s clearly day one. I suppose it is also worth noting that Belt has arrived and thus is four days early. Also, when you walk into the clubhouse it is decorated with this.
I also wanted to provide a fantastic link to a piece written by Royals Review of SB Nation: Success and Failure Rates of Top MLB Prospects. Why? Because Brandon Belt will be vying for a job – this may or may not be true, as Sabean may want to store Belt in Fresno for financial reasons, or at least until the offense needs a boost – this spring and there’s an abundance of hype surrounding him.
A couple of things of note – calling it worth mentioning is highly debatable – so far this spring are that Pat Burrell has switched from number nine to number five, Brandon Belt claims number nine and Miguel Tejada number 10, leaving number 35 for Travis Ishikawa. Yup, it’s clearly day one. I suppose it is also worth noting that Belt has arrived and thus is four days early. Also, when you walk into the clubhouse it is decorated with this.
I also wanted to provide a fantastic link to a piece written by Royals Review of SB Nation: Success and Failure Rates of Top MLB Prospects. Why? Because Brandon Belt will be vying for a job – this may or may not be true, as Sabean may want to store Belt in Fresno for financial reasons, or at least until the offense needs a boost – this spring and there’s an abundance of hype surrounding him.
Thursday, December 16, 2010
Project Prospect and Paapfly talk Brandon Belt
In case you have not noticed, the Giants haven’t given me much to write about lately. And that’s fine, by the way, because the World Series championship is doing a pretty great job keeping me content. A while back, I wrote a post advocating my wish for the Giants to allow Huff to walk, to give Belt the opening at first base, and to use the money saved to upgrade in left field. The Giants didn’t take my advice and for the record, I’m fine with it. But what the Giants did do was openly admit they have high-hopes for the kid and see him as an impact player. They even went as far as to say that he’ll be given the opportunity, in the spring, to earn an opening day spot in the lineup. If he can’t justify an everyday job, he’ll head to Fresno. So it figures that Mr. Belt will either be playing first or left field in 2011 on Opening Day, or in Triple-A. Let’s explore that a bit here.
I recently emailed Adam Foster over at Project Prospect who had a chance to see Belt play – and play well – in the Arizona Fall League. Adam recently came out with a list of their Top 25 Prospects. Much to my delight, Brandon Belt landed sixth on this list, which would have been unimaginable when he was drafted in the fifth round in 2009. I asked Adam his thoughts on whether or not Belt would have a pronounced platoon split – i.e. would he struggle versus left-handed pitching (LHP) – as well as if he’s ready to step in now, if his defense is plus at first, and whether or not he can handle left field. This is what he had to say:
“I think Belt will make some progress against quality lefties, but he'll do most of his damage against righties. He looked like an above-average defensive first baseman to me at the AFL; he moves around a lot better than you'd expect based on his body type. Strong arm. Good feel for the position. I wouldn't want him as my left fielder. He could play passable defense … but he probably wouldn't be an average defensive outfielder, due to his lack of speed…”
“I'd give Belt at least another half season of experience in the minors. He made a lot of swing mechanics adjustments last season and he may be able to learn even more in the right environment. I love his patience, strong wrists and opposite-field approach...” “Belt has more holes in his swing than Posey. Good fastballs inside can beat him, and like any hitter -- especially given that he's a lot more open than he used to be -- quality breaking balls on the outer half of the plate are going to be an area where he'll need to get comfortable.”
There are a couple of things in there that we’ll want to pay close attention to, stuff I have thoughts on. First of which would be his performance against LHP. This has to be a huge factor in his overall ceiling – or as Adam puts it, his Overall Future Potential (OFP). Those left-handed hitters who handle lefties are simply more valuable. If you look at a player like Chase Utley, he can play everyday and have an impact whether or not he’s facing C.C. Sabathia or Matt Cain. That’s important. While there are far fewer lefties and thus fewer plate appearances against them, a left-handed batter can really hurt his value by not hitting them well – see Curtis Granderson. If it’s to the point where they need to be benched against lefties – again, see Curtis Granderson – it’s obviously a problem. But also, it can be a huge factor in attacking that player’s weakness in high-leveraged, late-inning situations. I probably don’t have to explain to you why Ryan Howard’s growing gap between his skills versus lefties and righties is a concern, and how that had an impact on the 2010 NLCS. Simply put, if Belt can keep his platoon split to a minimum, he’ll be that much more valuable.
When he does crack the 25-man roster, where should he play? Adam has pretty much solidified my stance on this subject – Belt should play first. Look, I know that Huff looked pretty decent at first in 2010. I know that the Giants praised his defense there, and also that the defensive metrics available to us were complimentary to him. But we have about ten years worth of defensive metrics and scout opinions prior to that, and the consensus is far from flattering. Neither is going to be Carl Crawford in left, so you can forget that. And it seems clear that Belt has the chance to be a plus first baseman, or at least an above average one, whereas Huff stands to be about average at best there. I think this should be an easy choice, especially considering that’s where Belt’s future is almost certain to be. Then you live with Huff in left and hope he continues to hit.
That last subject I’d like to broach is his readiness. I’m on board with Adam here, more so than I was prior to this exchange. Adam makes a couple of points that I think stand worth repeating. 1) Belt has more holes in his swing than Posey, good fastballs on the inner-half can beat him, and he needs to work on soft-away stuff. And 2) he made a lot of swing mechanics adjustments in 2010 and may be able to learn more in the right environment. Boom goes the dynamite.
Both of these points go hand in hand. In order to truly blossom as a hitter, Belt needs to make those holes – and every hitter has them, it’s the size (and prevalence) that matters – as small and difficult to hit as possible. The smaller and fewer the holes, the more difficult it is for a pitcher to spork* that location. That’s the main difference between an A-ball pitcher, a Double-A pitcher, a Triple-A pitcher, a Big League pitcher, and an All-star pitcher. Sure, some of it has to do with stuff, but most of it has to do with the ability to command multiple quality pitches. Those that can only command one or two, even if they have great stuff, are usually relievers. Those that can command three – with good stuff – crack the rotation. Those that can command four become All-stars. As Belt graduates, the pitcher’s he faces will become more and more adept at exploiting his weaknesses – his holes. That’s why, when Belt went from A-advanced to AA, his strikeout rate went from 18.5% to 19.4%, and why it ballooned to 31.3% in AAA. And the 61 plate appearances he received in AAA – as well as around that many in the AFL, largely a hitter’s league – probably just aren’t enough for him to have already adjusted to the advancing skills of the pitcher’s he’s facing.
*Meaning: pinpoint, nail, and hammer-down. When you spork something, you knock it out of the park. I mean, you just really hit the bullseye. I think it works here, because it’s also a utensil that combines fork and spoon, an awesome invention that presents the best of both worlds. You can really dominate a lunch, if in a hurry, with a spork by getting both food and sauce in one bite, never missing a beat.
Here’s the thing, by all accounts Belt stands to be an outstanding hitter. But he’s a very young hitter. He spent most of his college career as a pitcher. He has one season as a professional hitter. And perhaps most importantly, he has just one season of at-bats with a completely re-built swing. I think the Giants would probably be wise to give him every chance to succeed, and the best way to do that is probably to be cautious with him. I don’t think it would ruin him to bring him to the big leagues right away, but I think there’s a decent chance it might stunt his development. I don’t know if he needs two weeks in Triple-A. I don’t know if he needs two months in Triple-A, or a full season for that matter. But I do feel comfortable in saying this: the best place for him to learn his swing, to learn to repeat it and make adjustments, is probably Triple-A; it’s probably not the National League where pitcher’s are so adept at attacking a hitter’s weakness, and where Ubaldo Jimenez and Mat Latos would love nothing more than to crush a young hitter’s confidence.
If I’ve somehow quashed your unbridled crush on Belt, here’s something that might shed a little more light on the subject – pun very much intended – from Adam:
Belt is “…one of the best hitters I saw this year…” and “… every scout I’ve talked to about him also sees him as being the real deal.” He’s “… going to be fun to watch.”
***
And quickly, if you’re wondering what my thoughts are on the Phillies’ projected rotation for 2011, and whether or not I think it’s now better than the Giants’, I think it should be pretty obvious. If not, here you go: the Phillies rotation is better. And before you lose it, and again remind me that the Giants beat basically all of them in their march to their World Series rings, stop. My stance has everything to do with an admiration of the rotation Ruben Amaro has amassed, and nothing to do with my thoughts on what the Giants have. Old jacket – AKA Otis Anderson, or vice versa – said it about right at Bay City Ball. Both are great rotations, but for 2011 and if in a pinch, I’d go with the one that has Halladay and Lee headlining.
I recently emailed Adam Foster over at Project Prospect who had a chance to see Belt play – and play well – in the Arizona Fall League. Adam recently came out with a list of their Top 25 Prospects. Much to my delight, Brandon Belt landed sixth on this list, which would have been unimaginable when he was drafted in the fifth round in 2009. I asked Adam his thoughts on whether or not Belt would have a pronounced platoon split – i.e. would he struggle versus left-handed pitching (LHP) – as well as if he’s ready to step in now, if his defense is plus at first, and whether or not he can handle left field. This is what he had to say:
“I think Belt will make some progress against quality lefties, but he'll do most of his damage against righties. He looked like an above-average defensive first baseman to me at the AFL; he moves around a lot better than you'd expect based on his body type. Strong arm. Good feel for the position. I wouldn't want him as my left fielder. He could play passable defense … but he probably wouldn't be an average defensive outfielder, due to his lack of speed…”
“I'd give Belt at least another half season of experience in the minors. He made a lot of swing mechanics adjustments last season and he may be able to learn even more in the right environment. I love his patience, strong wrists and opposite-field approach...” “Belt has more holes in his swing than Posey. Good fastballs inside can beat him, and like any hitter -- especially given that he's a lot more open than he used to be -- quality breaking balls on the outer half of the plate are going to be an area where he'll need to get comfortable.”
There are a couple of things in there that we’ll want to pay close attention to, stuff I have thoughts on. First of which would be his performance against LHP. This has to be a huge factor in his overall ceiling – or as Adam puts it, his Overall Future Potential (OFP). Those left-handed hitters who handle lefties are simply more valuable. If you look at a player like Chase Utley, he can play everyday and have an impact whether or not he’s facing C.C. Sabathia or Matt Cain. That’s important. While there are far fewer lefties and thus fewer plate appearances against them, a left-handed batter can really hurt his value by not hitting them well – see Curtis Granderson. If it’s to the point where they need to be benched against lefties – again, see Curtis Granderson – it’s obviously a problem. But also, it can be a huge factor in attacking that player’s weakness in high-leveraged, late-inning situations. I probably don’t have to explain to you why Ryan Howard’s growing gap between his skills versus lefties and righties is a concern, and how that had an impact on the 2010 NLCS. Simply put, if Belt can keep his platoon split to a minimum, he’ll be that much more valuable.
When he does crack the 25-man roster, where should he play? Adam has pretty much solidified my stance on this subject – Belt should play first. Look, I know that Huff looked pretty decent at first in 2010. I know that the Giants praised his defense there, and also that the defensive metrics available to us were complimentary to him. But we have about ten years worth of defensive metrics and scout opinions prior to that, and the consensus is far from flattering. Neither is going to be Carl Crawford in left, so you can forget that. And it seems clear that Belt has the chance to be a plus first baseman, or at least an above average one, whereas Huff stands to be about average at best there. I think this should be an easy choice, especially considering that’s where Belt’s future is almost certain to be. Then you live with Huff in left and hope he continues to hit.
That last subject I’d like to broach is his readiness. I’m on board with Adam here, more so than I was prior to this exchange. Adam makes a couple of points that I think stand worth repeating. 1) Belt has more holes in his swing than Posey, good fastballs on the inner-half can beat him, and he needs to work on soft-away stuff. And 2) he made a lot of swing mechanics adjustments in 2010 and may be able to learn more in the right environment. Boom goes the dynamite.
Both of these points go hand in hand. In order to truly blossom as a hitter, Belt needs to make those holes – and every hitter has them, it’s the size (and prevalence) that matters – as small and difficult to hit as possible. The smaller and fewer the holes, the more difficult it is for a pitcher to spork* that location. That’s the main difference between an A-ball pitcher, a Double-A pitcher, a Triple-A pitcher, a Big League pitcher, and an All-star pitcher. Sure, some of it has to do with stuff, but most of it has to do with the ability to command multiple quality pitches. Those that can only command one or two, even if they have great stuff, are usually relievers. Those that can command three – with good stuff – crack the rotation. Those that can command four become All-stars. As Belt graduates, the pitcher’s he faces will become more and more adept at exploiting his weaknesses – his holes. That’s why, when Belt went from A-advanced to AA, his strikeout rate went from 18.5% to 19.4%, and why it ballooned to 31.3% in AAA. And the 61 plate appearances he received in AAA – as well as around that many in the AFL, largely a hitter’s league – probably just aren’t enough for him to have already adjusted to the advancing skills of the pitcher’s he’s facing.
*Meaning: pinpoint, nail, and hammer-down. When you spork something, you knock it out of the park. I mean, you just really hit the bullseye. I think it works here, because it’s also a utensil that combines fork and spoon, an awesome invention that presents the best of both worlds. You can really dominate a lunch, if in a hurry, with a spork by getting both food and sauce in one bite, never missing a beat.
Here’s the thing, by all accounts Belt stands to be an outstanding hitter. But he’s a very young hitter. He spent most of his college career as a pitcher. He has one season as a professional hitter. And perhaps most importantly, he has just one season of at-bats with a completely re-built swing. I think the Giants would probably be wise to give him every chance to succeed, and the best way to do that is probably to be cautious with him. I don’t think it would ruin him to bring him to the big leagues right away, but I think there’s a decent chance it might stunt his development. I don’t know if he needs two weeks in Triple-A. I don’t know if he needs two months in Triple-A, or a full season for that matter. But I do feel comfortable in saying this: the best place for him to learn his swing, to learn to repeat it and make adjustments, is probably Triple-A; it’s probably not the National League where pitcher’s are so adept at attacking a hitter’s weakness, and where Ubaldo Jimenez and Mat Latos would love nothing more than to crush a young hitter’s confidence.
If I’ve somehow quashed your unbridled crush on Belt, here’s something that might shed a little more light on the subject – pun very much intended – from Adam:
Belt is “…one of the best hitters I saw this year…” and “… every scout I’ve talked to about him also sees him as being the real deal.” He’s “… going to be fun to watch.”
***
And quickly, if you’re wondering what my thoughts are on the Phillies’ projected rotation for 2011, and whether or not I think it’s now better than the Giants’, I think it should be pretty obvious. If not, here you go: the Phillies rotation is better. And before you lose it, and again remind me that the Giants beat basically all of them in their march to their World Series rings, stop. My stance has everything to do with an admiration of the rotation Ruben Amaro has amassed, and nothing to do with my thoughts on what the Giants have. Old jacket – AKA Otis Anderson, or vice versa – said it about right at Bay City Ball. Both are great rotations, but for 2011 and if in a pinch, I’d go with the one that has Halladay and Lee headlining.
Friday, November 19, 2010
Who’s on First? Hopefully, Brandon Belt
Let’s first off hope that Brandon Belt is not the next Brandon Wood. Let’s also hope, however reluctantly and painfully, it’s also not Aubrey Huff on first. *Dodges thrown sharp objects*
The 2010 Giants season was the single greatest sporting experience of my life. I grew a beard, and for each game wore the same gray t-shirt, Giants pullover and a pair of Washington State University sweats – Thank you for those, my lovely fiancé Caley! That was once I’d discovered they were OBVIOUSLY the source of all the Brooks Conrad errors, Cody Ross home runs, one run wins, and of Javier Lopez’s lefty destroying magic. I lost my sanity several dozen times and scared the daylights out of my 11 LB dog in the process. It was wonderful. And without Aubrey Huff, the 2010 Giants almost certainly wouldn’t have won the division, eliminated the Braves, won the pennant and taken home the first World Series championship in San Francisco history. With that being said, let’s please set aside the nostalgia for the time being, and determine what is the best course for the now restored to glory franchise.
Allow me to state some facts, using the sandwich technique. Aubrey Huff is a fantastic baseball player, who has had his two best statistical years in two of the past three seasons. He is a wonderful clubhouse presence to boot. So was Ken Griffey Jr. in 2009 and 2010. Aubrey Huff will be 34 years in old 32 days. Players, on average, peak at ages 27 to 32. Despite his lauded defense in 2010 and +9.7 UZR at first base, his career first base UZR is -3.0, his career outfield UZR -29.0. Experts agree it takes two to three seasons to get a representative and therefore ultimately accurate sample of fielding to derive a players true defensive ability.
In the first half, Aubrey Huff hit 17 home runs, walked 43 times and struck out 40 times, hit .295, and posted an on-base percentage (OBP), slugging percentage (SLG), and on-base plus slugging percentage (OPS) of .384/.544/.929. He did this with a .287 batting average on balls in play (BABiP). In the second half, he hit 9 home runs, walked 40 times and struck out 51, hit .284 and had a respectable OBP/SLG/OPS – This is his “slash” line – of .385/.462/.847. He did this with a somewhat inflated BABiP of .317, when his career mark is .293.
Aubrey Huff will likely be seeking a two to three year offer of around $8 to $10 million annually. Given his brilliant 2010 season, he 1) deserves it and 2) will likely get it. Moreover, this is not LIKELY, but rather IS, the final time in his career he will have a chance to cash in on a decent contract. I like Huff quite a lot; I will always have a special place in my heart for his 2010 production, leadership, and unforgettable red rally thong, all of which propelled the Giants to achieve something that I never dreamed of, certainly not so soon. I’m on par with the biggest and most loyal Giants fan you’re likely to ever run into, and now that I’ve tasted victory I want more. Would another championship feel THIS good? I can’t say; I’ll posit probably not. However, I want to find out.
More facts: The Giants have a first baseman in their minor league system that they drafted in the fifth round of the 2009 draft. His name is Brandon Belt. He is 6’5” and around 200 pounds. He was a high profile pitcher for most of his college career, but the Giants signed him as a hitter, saying: “…he’s just learning to hit…” and “…all the upside is in front of this guy (Doug Mapson to Baseball Beginnings, 8/31/2009).” He would also say that the Giants have “…instructors we pay a lot of money in order to help these young hitters…” Instruct him, they did.
Belt confirmed to Project Prospect on Nov 7, 2010, that “…the [Giants] organization, they opened me up, they raised my hands, and they got me up out of the crouch just a little bit just so I could stay stacked in my upper body. And so far it’s worked out pretty well for me.” I’d say so. He also confirmed the changes helped him improve his bat speed and “…getting’ [his] hips through the ball.” It’s also clearly helped him shorten his swing and cover up the hole on the inside of his swing. He will still have a hole, every hitter does – Yes, even Pujols – but the idea is to shrink the hole and make it such that most if not all pitchers cannot consistently make pitches to that hole.
With his freshly redesigned swing, Belt went ballistic. He had 333 plate appearances in A-Advanced San Jose and hit 10 home runs, stole 18 bases – Proving his athleticism and baseball acumen – hit .383 and had a slash-line of .455/.620/1.121 for an impossible weighted on-base average (wOBA) of .489. He then graduated to AA Richmond, a league in which hitters routinely struggle, including Giants prospects, and in 201 plate appearances hit 9 home runs, hit .337, and had a slash line of .413/.623/1.036 for a spectacular .447 wOBA. Finally, he moved on to AAA Fresno for just 61 plate appearances. He managed 4 home runs but only hit .229 – He was battered with an unlucky .241 BABiP – in a very small sample. Luckily, he walked 13 times and had a triple slash line of .393/.563/.956 for a still quite great wOBA of .419. His final tally in his first professional season, while playing excellent defense and discovering a new swing: 23 home runs, 10 triples, 43 doubles, 22 stolen bases, 93 walks to just 99 strikeouts, a .352 average and a slash line of .455/.620/1.075. Not bad in a years work. But wait…
The Giants sent Belt to the Arizona Fall League (AFL) for further seasoning – Also, likely to see if he might be ready for opening day. The league is typically composed of some of the very best prospects in baseball, and this year is no exception, including Dustin Ackley and Bryce Harper. Belt jumped right in and through the end of the regular season and 84 at bats has hit .372 with 1 home run, 8 doubles, and 5 triples for a slash line of .427/.616/1.043, slashing line drives through the warm air in the fall desert. He will be playing in the AFL championship game this coming Saturday.
The consensus among scouts is that his season was no fluke at all:
A scout told Jayson Stark, on Belt: “You can have [Bryce] Harper. Give me that kid. He’s got a chance to be Larry Walker. Athletic. Powerful, Good defender. And he hits the ball line-to-line with thunder.”
Jason Grey is a scout for ESPN, and said this about Belt: “Having… [seen Belt] for the first couple of weeks of the AFL. There’s no doubt in my mind Belt is legit and a potential middle–of-the-order threat in a big league lineup capable of hitting for average and power.” He went on to say “I’ve liked Belt’s Approach, the quality of his at-bats, his ability to generate power without over swinging and his ability to go to the opposite field with some juice. He’s played good defense at first base and has showed good athleticism, enough that I’ve changed my mind to think he might not look out of place should the Giants choose to play him in left field, where he dabbled a little bit in the minors this year.”
Keith Law – ESPN.com and lead analyst for Scouts Inc. – has repeatedly said: “Belt is a potential star.”
All of the praise for Belt has him currently pegged as the number two first base prospect in the minors, behind only Eric Hosmer*.
*Hosmer comes from the farm system of the Kansas City Royals, a franchise that is the American League’s version of the Pirates, but also a franchise that’s farm system is busting at the seams with tremendous prospects. Hosmer was taken third overall in 2008, two ahead of Posey. Kevin Goldstein – Scout and Player Development expert for Baseball Prospectus – said: “The more I write up these Royals prospects, the harder a time I have figuring out a way they can screw this up.” In 2010 as a 20 year old in A Advanced and AA – He was young in BOTH leagues – he hit 20 home runs, 43 doubles, 9 triples, walked 59 times to just 66 strikeouts, hit .338 and put up a triple slash line of .406/.571/.977. It may be needless to say, but given his age, where he was drafted and the numbers he’s put up, it’s not an insult Belt is penciled in behind him.
My gut tells me that the Giants ought to install Belt at first base, his natural position, and use the money they saved on not signing Huff to a multi-year deal on a solid, two-way corner outfielder. I’ve looked at the Giants’ roster, and by resigning Huff and Uribe they won’t be getting any younger. Also, having looked at the roster, it’s easy to draw the conclusion that the Giants’ payroll is going to near or exceed $100 million with contract commitments and arbitration raises – Which was their approximate payroll in 2010 – before they sign a single free agent and fill their corner outfield, first base and shortstop vacancies.
Given their need for a shortstop – There’s nothing ready on the farm – as well as the scarcity of a decent shortstop option in this years crop of free agents, I think Uribe is the obvious of the two to resign. Otherwise, the Giants should engineer a trade for a shortstop, which actually might be their best option. If they take this route, they can spend some what little money they have on a left fielder and install Belt at first for league minimum. This is the most cost-effective way for the Giants to maximize their production within the constraints of their payroll, and I just don’t see any scenario in which signing Huff to a multi-year deal helps them in the long run. Again, as painful as that is to say and for any Giants fan to hear (or read).
Stats provided by Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference
The 2010 Giants season was the single greatest sporting experience of my life. I grew a beard, and for each game wore the same gray t-shirt, Giants pullover and a pair of Washington State University sweats – Thank you for those, my lovely fiancé Caley! That was once I’d discovered they were OBVIOUSLY the source of all the Brooks Conrad errors, Cody Ross home runs, one run wins, and of Javier Lopez’s lefty destroying magic. I lost my sanity several dozen times and scared the daylights out of my 11 LB dog in the process. It was wonderful. And without Aubrey Huff, the 2010 Giants almost certainly wouldn’t have won the division, eliminated the Braves, won the pennant and taken home the first World Series championship in San Francisco history. With that being said, let’s please set aside the nostalgia for the time being, and determine what is the best course for the now restored to glory franchise.
Allow me to state some facts, using the sandwich technique. Aubrey Huff is a fantastic baseball player, who has had his two best statistical years in two of the past three seasons. He is a wonderful clubhouse presence to boot. So was Ken Griffey Jr. in 2009 and 2010. Aubrey Huff will be 34 years in old 32 days. Players, on average, peak at ages 27 to 32. Despite his lauded defense in 2010 and +9.7 UZR at first base, his career first base UZR is -3.0, his career outfield UZR -29.0. Experts agree it takes two to three seasons to get a representative and therefore ultimately accurate sample of fielding to derive a players true defensive ability.
In the first half, Aubrey Huff hit 17 home runs, walked 43 times and struck out 40 times, hit .295, and posted an on-base percentage (OBP), slugging percentage (SLG), and on-base plus slugging percentage (OPS) of .384/.544/.929. He did this with a .287 batting average on balls in play (BABiP). In the second half, he hit 9 home runs, walked 40 times and struck out 51, hit .284 and had a respectable OBP/SLG/OPS – This is his “slash” line – of .385/.462/.847. He did this with a somewhat inflated BABiP of .317, when his career mark is .293.
Aubrey Huff will likely be seeking a two to three year offer of around $8 to $10 million annually. Given his brilliant 2010 season, he 1) deserves it and 2) will likely get it. Moreover, this is not LIKELY, but rather IS, the final time in his career he will have a chance to cash in on a decent contract. I like Huff quite a lot; I will always have a special place in my heart for his 2010 production, leadership, and unforgettable red rally thong, all of which propelled the Giants to achieve something that I never dreamed of, certainly not so soon. I’m on par with the biggest and most loyal Giants fan you’re likely to ever run into, and now that I’ve tasted victory I want more. Would another championship feel THIS good? I can’t say; I’ll posit probably not. However, I want to find out.
More facts: The Giants have a first baseman in their minor league system that they drafted in the fifth round of the 2009 draft. His name is Brandon Belt. He is 6’5” and around 200 pounds. He was a high profile pitcher for most of his college career, but the Giants signed him as a hitter, saying: “…he’s just learning to hit…” and “…all the upside is in front of this guy (Doug Mapson to Baseball Beginnings, 8/31/2009).” He would also say that the Giants have “…instructors we pay a lot of money in order to help these young hitters…” Instruct him, they did.
Belt confirmed to Project Prospect on Nov 7, 2010, that “…the [Giants] organization, they opened me up, they raised my hands, and they got me up out of the crouch just a little bit just so I could stay stacked in my upper body. And so far it’s worked out pretty well for me.” I’d say so. He also confirmed the changes helped him improve his bat speed and “…getting’ [his] hips through the ball.” It’s also clearly helped him shorten his swing and cover up the hole on the inside of his swing. He will still have a hole, every hitter does – Yes, even Pujols – but the idea is to shrink the hole and make it such that most if not all pitchers cannot consistently make pitches to that hole.
With his freshly redesigned swing, Belt went ballistic. He had 333 plate appearances in A-Advanced San Jose and hit 10 home runs, stole 18 bases – Proving his athleticism and baseball acumen – hit .383 and had a slash-line of .455/.620/1.121 for an impossible weighted on-base average (wOBA) of .489. He then graduated to AA Richmond, a league in which hitters routinely struggle, including Giants prospects, and in 201 plate appearances hit 9 home runs, hit .337, and had a slash line of .413/.623/1.036 for a spectacular .447 wOBA. Finally, he moved on to AAA Fresno for just 61 plate appearances. He managed 4 home runs but only hit .229 – He was battered with an unlucky .241 BABiP – in a very small sample. Luckily, he walked 13 times and had a triple slash line of .393/.563/.956 for a still quite great wOBA of .419. His final tally in his first professional season, while playing excellent defense and discovering a new swing: 23 home runs, 10 triples, 43 doubles, 22 stolen bases, 93 walks to just 99 strikeouts, a .352 average and a slash line of .455/.620/1.075. Not bad in a years work. But wait…
The Giants sent Belt to the Arizona Fall League (AFL) for further seasoning – Also, likely to see if he might be ready for opening day. The league is typically composed of some of the very best prospects in baseball, and this year is no exception, including Dustin Ackley and Bryce Harper. Belt jumped right in and through the end of the regular season and 84 at bats has hit .372 with 1 home run, 8 doubles, and 5 triples for a slash line of .427/.616/1.043, slashing line drives through the warm air in the fall desert. He will be playing in the AFL championship game this coming Saturday.
The consensus among scouts is that his season was no fluke at all:
A scout told Jayson Stark, on Belt: “You can have [Bryce] Harper. Give me that kid. He’s got a chance to be Larry Walker. Athletic. Powerful, Good defender. And he hits the ball line-to-line with thunder.”
Jason Grey is a scout for ESPN, and said this about Belt: “Having… [seen Belt] for the first couple of weeks of the AFL. There’s no doubt in my mind Belt is legit and a potential middle–of-the-order threat in a big league lineup capable of hitting for average and power.” He went on to say “I’ve liked Belt’s Approach, the quality of his at-bats, his ability to generate power without over swinging and his ability to go to the opposite field with some juice. He’s played good defense at first base and has showed good athleticism, enough that I’ve changed my mind to think he might not look out of place should the Giants choose to play him in left field, where he dabbled a little bit in the minors this year.”
Keith Law – ESPN.com and lead analyst for Scouts Inc. – has repeatedly said: “Belt is a potential star.”
All of the praise for Belt has him currently pegged as the number two first base prospect in the minors, behind only Eric Hosmer*.
*Hosmer comes from the farm system of the Kansas City Royals, a franchise that is the American League’s version of the Pirates, but also a franchise that’s farm system is busting at the seams with tremendous prospects. Hosmer was taken third overall in 2008, two ahead of Posey. Kevin Goldstein – Scout and Player Development expert for Baseball Prospectus – said: “The more I write up these Royals prospects, the harder a time I have figuring out a way they can screw this up.” In 2010 as a 20 year old in A Advanced and AA – He was young in BOTH leagues – he hit 20 home runs, 43 doubles, 9 triples, walked 59 times to just 66 strikeouts, hit .338 and put up a triple slash line of .406/.571/.977. It may be needless to say, but given his age, where he was drafted and the numbers he’s put up, it’s not an insult Belt is penciled in behind him.
My gut tells me that the Giants ought to install Belt at first base, his natural position, and use the money they saved on not signing Huff to a multi-year deal on a solid, two-way corner outfielder. I’ve looked at the Giants’ roster, and by resigning Huff and Uribe they won’t be getting any younger. Also, having looked at the roster, it’s easy to draw the conclusion that the Giants’ payroll is going to near or exceed $100 million with contract commitments and arbitration raises – Which was their approximate payroll in 2010 – before they sign a single free agent and fill their corner outfield, first base and shortstop vacancies.
Given their need for a shortstop – There’s nothing ready on the farm – as well as the scarcity of a decent shortstop option in this years crop of free agents, I think Uribe is the obvious of the two to resign. Otherwise, the Giants should engineer a trade for a shortstop, which actually might be their best option. If they take this route, they can spend some what little money they have on a left fielder and install Belt at first for league minimum. This is the most cost-effective way for the Giants to maximize their production within the constraints of their payroll, and I just don’t see any scenario in which signing Huff to a multi-year deal helps them in the long run. Again, as painful as that is to say and for any Giants fan to hear (or read).
Stats provided by Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference
Monday, November 8, 2010
SF Giants Offseason Blueprint
Giants Free Agents (FA): Aubrey Huff, Juan Uribe, Pat Burrell
Out-of-House Available FA: Carl Crawford, Adrian Beltre, Jayson Werth, Victor Martinez, Adam Dunn, Johnny Damon, Carlos Pena, Lance Berkman
Early Trade Targets: David DeJesus, Dan Uggla, Jason Bartlett, Stephen Drew
The Giants won the World Series in 2010, and now I am reluctantly going to delve into what lay ahead for 2011. I’d very much like to bask in this longer but reality has set in. What’s more, all players became FA just five days after the World Series this year, effectively ending the period in which teams could exclusively negotiated with their own FA – I believe it had previously been a full 14 days – so it’s quite literally already open season. Mike Murphy had barely gotten a chance to finish the champagne soaked laundry – there’s zero doubt it smelled something horrid and yet something beautiful when he got around to it, drenched in equal parts sweat and victory, because Murphy had been doing the Giants’ laundry since they came to the City in 1958 and not once had his last load of the season been sopping with alcohol – when the heroes of the 2010 season like Pat Burrell and Aubrey Huff, and the heroes of the NLCS and World Series, Juan Uribe and MVP Edgar Renteria, became free agents.
And no sooner than could these players sit back, smile, and reflect on what they’d done, they were already being surveyed, their stats prodded and their futures discussed by the Giants’ front office. And who can blame them? It’s not a matter of, “What have you done for me lately?” It’s a matter of, “What can you do for me next year, and the year after?” Such is life in the business of baseball, when plan C first baseman put up MVP numbers for four months and finish a top 10 NL player on a slight salary of just $3 million, and former Cy Young award winning, $126 million dollar starters don’t even make the postseason roster.
PITCHING (STARTERS and PEN)
In terms of pitching, the Giants are the envy of pretty much every team in the Major Leagues. It was interesting to see the opposing teams fans and writers wonder, “Where did our hitters go?” all postseason long. They didn’t go anywhere; the Giants’ staff simply shut them down. They owe their World Series rings to this.
The Giants will throw out one of the best five-man rotations in baseball in 2011. Their top four are all homegrown – as everyone should be well aware of by now following the World Series – and are extraordinary in one or more of the most important factors to pitch effectively.
Lincecum is dominant and my pick to reclaim his Cy Young crown in 2011. He limits the long ball, decently keeps walks down and – armed with one of the best strikeout pitches in the game, his changeup – is the class of the Senior Circuit in terms of striking out batters (10.07/9 IP career). And the slider he showcased in September and October (and November) will only help him to sustain his dominance, along with a new found motivation to condition hard. Cain is a solid number two starter on this staff, and would be number one for more than a few franchises. He did substantially better at not walking batters in 2010 (2.46/9 IP) and continued to strike out batters at an above average rate (7.13/ 9). What’s more, he has held batters to a suspiciously low average on balls in play (.274 career BABiP). That’s a sample of over 1,000 innings and something tells me he’ll continue the trend. His fly ball style works well in AT&T, but he pitches well on the road, too. Twenty-one year old Madison Bumgarner will likely surpass Jonathan Sanchez as the next reliable starter. It looks like he’s going to strike out just enough batters (7.14/9 IP career), at worst, and continue to limit the long ball decently and walk very few (2.11/9 IP in ’10). He’s a very rare breed in that he is a funky, three-quarter lefty that throws across his body but manages to throw a pretty hard fastball (91.3 MPH average), and most miraculously, he’s a strike thrower. If his fastball stays where it’s at or even increases a tick, and he sharpens his changeup and slider as strikeout pitches, he may well reach his number one starter ceiling. The Giants’ fourth starter, Sanchez, has the ability to throw a no hitter on any given evening. He’s always going to walk too many batters but his ability to strike out so many batters (9.41/9 IP career) gets him out of trouble, making him one of the very best four starters in baseball.
And then there’s Barry Zito. When discussing him, it’s very important to take his contract ($126 million) and throw it out the window. If you’re able to do that, you’ll see that Zito is one of the best five starters in baseball and hasn’t missed a start since little league. He’s more than likely going to throw 200 or so mediocre innings and smile each time he checks his bank account. But when the rest of the league is playing “Eeny, meeny, miny, moe” at the end of Spring Training to pick a fifth starter, the Giants won’t be – and that’s worth something.
These five starters posted a combined WAR of 15.8 in 2010, or a 3.16 on average, and Bumgarner was only the fifth start for half the season. If he’d pitched 200 innings with similar numbers, he’d have finished with a WAR of 3.7, bringing the Giants’ 2010 rotations cumulative WAR to 17.5, or 3.5 on average. That would have been the equivalent of having the 2010 version of Johan Santana pitch each day – granted, not the Cy Young version – and something tells me that gives your ballclub a decent shot to win.
The Giants have a shutdown bullpen with lots of weapons. Brian Wilson (11.21 K/9, 3.13 BB/9, ratio 3.58, .36 HR/9, 2.19 FIP. 2.7 Wins Above Replacement) is the type of closer that everybody wants but no team really wants to pay for in terms of salary and draft picks, and for good reason. But much like the core of starters San Francisco has, he’s homegrown and developed and still relatively cheap, though he’ll go through arbitration once again this winter. He’s one of the best closers in the league. He’s fearless, throws strikes, gets lots of punch outs and rarely gives up dingers. Romo will continue to spin Frisbee sliders, strike out batters and throw tons of strikes (10.16 K/9 and 5.0 K/BB). The Giants will have three decent lefties in Lopez, Runzler and Affeldt, though there’s some talk to make Runzler a starter. And they’ll have Santiago Casilla back as well, with the option to retain Chris Ray and Ramon Ramirez to round out the bullpen. Sabean will have very little worrying to do over his arms. And given the volatility of relievers, Sabean will have a few interesting and somewhat promising arms to pick from in the minor leagues.
OFFENSE (and DEFENSE)
I feel very confident in saying the Giants are comfortably set at 4 of 8 everyday positions. They will have NL Rookie of the Year Buster Posey – I hope; not that he will be there, he will be, but that he’ll be reining NL RoY – as catcher for 2011 and far, far beyond. They will have Andres Torres (who is arbitration eligible) in center field and batting leadoff. Hopefully, he continues to stay healthy and put up Wins Above Replacement (WAR) north of 4.0, because I think it’d be greedy to hope he repeats his 6.0 WAR from 2010. The Giants will return second baseman Freddy Sanchez and hope for a full season of quality defense and streaky offense. The Giants will also more than likely place NLCS Most Valuable Player, Cody Ross, in right field. His October heroics notwithstanding, Ross was an average hitter in 2008 and 2009 but struggled in 2010. He’s averaged a decent 2 Wins Above Replacement the past two seasons. He has a little bit of pop and can play above average D in either corner outfield spot, including within the tricky AT&T, as well as fill in at center field without hurting the team too much.
Third base is a position that is a question mark at this point. It’s hard to imagine the Giants might have an MVP caliber player at the position, or if not, a player that can’t play the position defensively or carry his weight with the bat. But then that’s the exact position they’re in. If Pablo Sandoval was able to make the necessary lifestyle changes and get himself into shape, he could easily be the middle of the order bat he was in 2009. If not, he could easily find himself as a bench player or a minor leaguer trying to claw his way back to the show. It’s probably also not out of the question for the Giants to move Pablo to a team willing to take the risk on him and give something valuable in return. I’ll bet the Diamondbacks would take Pablo for Stephen Drew, and the Giants sure need a shortstop. But this is the type of trade you hate to do, because Pablo could very well return to form and terrorize them for the next 8-10 years for an in-division team. Another possibility would be moving Panda for Dan Uggla. That would be assuming Uggla doesn’t take an extension from Florida – he already turned down 4 years, $48 million – and that would potentially be an awful lot to give up for a free agent to be.
The Giants have three positions that need to be filled by free agents or in-house options. One such position is left field. Pat Burrell could return but likely isn’t an everyday player any longer. The Giants also have Mark DeRosa returning from wrist surgery, but it’d be more than foolish to assume he can immediately return to being a quality player and meaningful presence in the lineup. I like him better as a super-utility type. The FA market contains Carl Crawford (.378 wOBA, 19 HR, 47 SB, 6.9 WAR)*, Jayson Werth and Johnny Damon among others. Crawford would fit beautifully into the Giants’ lineup and immediately make their pitchers even better with breathtaking outfield defense (to go with Torres and Ross); very few balls would be dropping. He’d very easily slide right into the three spot in the order, instantly making the Giants more athletic while providing extra base power and installing a huge stolen base threat. But, in all likelihood Crawford will be too expensive – he’ll likely take home greater than $100 million – for the Giants to stomach and will sign elsewhere.
*Crawford is sort of a 1992, Barry Bonds lite. He has power (though not as much). He gets on base (though not as much). He can steal 40 bases. He plays remarkable defense in left field. He’s very, very similar to pre-juiced Barry Bonds, though very obviously not on the same level. But who is?
Jayson Werth does a lot of things the Giants could use. He could slip into right field and middle of the order, making room for Ross in left. He hits for power, runs the bases well, is patient and is a good defender. That being said, he apparently hates hitting at AT&T and the Giants prefer a left handed bat. He’ll command a Jason Bay like contact of 4 years, $60 million as a floor and have lots of action from teams like the Red Sox. Furthermore, he’s had some pretty significant splits while hitting in the hitter haven Citizens Bank Park. Having witnessed the enormous drop off of Aaron Rowand first hand, it seems unlikely the Giants would go back to the stove after being burned once. Both Werth and Crawford would cost them their first round draft pick.
It seems likely the Giants would at least explore a trade for David DeJesus again. DeJesus was injured just before the deadline in 2010, and apparently, the Giants were somewhat close to acquiring him at the time. I have little doubt the Giants would wait to see DeJesus in the spring to see how he’s recovering from the torn thumb ligament before pulling the trigger on such a trade. Also, like Uggla, he’ll be a free agent after the 2011 season and thus a hefty price in prospects would likely deter Brian Sabean and the ownership.
The Giants also have a hole to fill at shortstop, and it won’t be easily patched. The Giants’ only in-house options are Brandon Crawford and Ehire Adrianza, and neither is ready. Crawford probably isn’t going to hit enough at the major league level but is a good defender. He hurt himself midseason in 2010 and really hasn’t hit at all since reaching AA before the All-Star break in 2009. Adrianza has moved up a level in each of the last two seasons – he’ll likely start in AA in 2010 – but isn’t near ready with the bat. He may one day be an eight-hole hitter and fantastic defender, but he’s at least a year away.
The Giants’ best option might be potentially departing, NLCS hero, Juan Uribe. Uribe is a plus defender at third but just average at shortstop. He doesn’t have the speed and quickness to field the position and, making matters worse, has shown some wear and tear while playing every day the past season and a half. He often makes up for lack of quickness with a strong arm, but it’s not nearly enough to make him a great defender. Offensively, he will do enough to justify his defense. He can really run into mistakes and hit 24 homeruns in 2010. He’s an all or nothing type hitter and doesn’t get on base nearly enough, making him a frustrating hitter to watch when he’s slumping.
He may well be the best option because the market is barren otherwise. Orlando Cabrera, Cesar Izturis, the Giants’ own Edgar Renteria, Miguel Tejada, Adam Everett and Cristian Guzman head a lackluster class. The Giants’ best option is probably to sign Uribe and hope for the best. Otherwise, I think the Giants will probably have to acquire something via trade. I really like Stephen Drew and would imagine he could be had, but the price would likely be steep.
Finally, the Giants need a first baseman and they and Aubrey Huff have a mutual interest to hook back up, but Huff has every right to explore the FA market. This will be his last chance to earn some bread for his family (and new baby). If Huff is offered something beyond 2 years from another organization, the Giants should move on. Why? Because the Giants have one of the best first base prospects – see my previous post – in Brandon Belt. They could easily slide Belt in now if absolutely necessary, or at worst, sign someone like Lance Berkman to fill in as long as he’s mildly productive and healthy (and cheap). Belt will cost league minimum and is receiving rave reviews from scouts in the Arizona Fall League. If they went this route, they could save money for a big splash acquisition like Carl Crawford. This is unfortunately one of those things where the Giants have to be careful to not get nostalgic with a player that helped bring them their first World Series Championship after 52, often painful years in the City by the Bay. Huff had a career year, forgive me for saying this, but let’s maybe quit while we’re ahead on this one.
QUICK NOTES
Other big names out there Victor Martinez, Carlos Pena, Adam Dunn and Adrian Beltre. Martinez would be an interesting addition. Stick with me here. Martinez could slide into a starting role at first base and play catcher when Posey needs a rest. This would make for an interesting situation where the Giants could forego keeping a backup catcher – meaning the punchless Eli Whiteside – and keep both hitters in the lineup every day. Unfortunately, I think Martinez will command too many years and he would only block Brandon Belt. The same blocking logic goes for Carlos Pena and Adam Dunn. Adrian Beltre put up MVP like overall numbers for Boston while hitting both at home and on the road. His premier defense and solid bat will probably net him the 3-4 year deal he was seeking last winter. He’d be an interesting sign for the Giants in that he could man third and push Pablo over to first, where his glove would play better. But, again, this would only block a productive hitter in Brandon Belt one way or the other eventually. Belt, Beltre and Sandoval would simply be one too many corner infielders. The final wild card in this regard, though, is that the Giants have toyed with Belt in the outfield. But his future is at first base, or at least should be.
The Giants have a difficult offseason ahead. Figuring out what to do with Pablo Sandoval is going to give them a headache all winter long. If Uribe bolts (and even if he doesn’t), shortstop is going to try the Giants’ intelligence (and Lady Luck). They have so many pieces to get right back into the playoffs in 2011. But, mark my words, if mistakes are made on contracts and player personnel and the Giants are struggling in 2011, the reprieve from ridicule and conditional, sincere love for Brian Sabean will disappear like seashells from a vicious beach, and there will be plenty of venom for Razor and Mr. T, F.P. Santangelo, and Marty Lurie on KNBR 680 to wade through again. Such is the nature of sports, and especially of sports talk radio.
Stats provided by Fangraphs
Out-of-House Available FA: Carl Crawford, Adrian Beltre, Jayson Werth, Victor Martinez, Adam Dunn, Johnny Damon, Carlos Pena, Lance Berkman
Early Trade Targets: David DeJesus, Dan Uggla, Jason Bartlett, Stephen Drew
The Giants won the World Series in 2010, and now I am reluctantly going to delve into what lay ahead for 2011. I’d very much like to bask in this longer but reality has set in. What’s more, all players became FA just five days after the World Series this year, effectively ending the period in which teams could exclusively negotiated with their own FA – I believe it had previously been a full 14 days – so it’s quite literally already open season. Mike Murphy had barely gotten a chance to finish the champagne soaked laundry – there’s zero doubt it smelled something horrid and yet something beautiful when he got around to it, drenched in equal parts sweat and victory, because Murphy had been doing the Giants’ laundry since they came to the City in 1958 and not once had his last load of the season been sopping with alcohol – when the heroes of the 2010 season like Pat Burrell and Aubrey Huff, and the heroes of the NLCS and World Series, Juan Uribe and MVP Edgar Renteria, became free agents.
And no sooner than could these players sit back, smile, and reflect on what they’d done, they were already being surveyed, their stats prodded and their futures discussed by the Giants’ front office. And who can blame them? It’s not a matter of, “What have you done for me lately?” It’s a matter of, “What can you do for me next year, and the year after?” Such is life in the business of baseball, when plan C first baseman put up MVP numbers for four months and finish a top 10 NL player on a slight salary of just $3 million, and former Cy Young award winning, $126 million dollar starters don’t even make the postseason roster.
PITCHING (STARTERS and PEN)
In terms of pitching, the Giants are the envy of pretty much every team in the Major Leagues. It was interesting to see the opposing teams fans and writers wonder, “Where did our hitters go?” all postseason long. They didn’t go anywhere; the Giants’ staff simply shut them down. They owe their World Series rings to this.
The Giants will throw out one of the best five-man rotations in baseball in 2011. Their top four are all homegrown – as everyone should be well aware of by now following the World Series – and are extraordinary in one or more of the most important factors to pitch effectively.
Lincecum is dominant and my pick to reclaim his Cy Young crown in 2011. He limits the long ball, decently keeps walks down and – armed with one of the best strikeout pitches in the game, his changeup – is the class of the Senior Circuit in terms of striking out batters (10.07/9 IP career). And the slider he showcased in September and October (and November) will only help him to sustain his dominance, along with a new found motivation to condition hard. Cain is a solid number two starter on this staff, and would be number one for more than a few franchises. He did substantially better at not walking batters in 2010 (2.46/9 IP) and continued to strike out batters at an above average rate (7.13/ 9). What’s more, he has held batters to a suspiciously low average on balls in play (.274 career BABiP). That’s a sample of over 1,000 innings and something tells me he’ll continue the trend. His fly ball style works well in AT&T, but he pitches well on the road, too. Twenty-one year old Madison Bumgarner will likely surpass Jonathan Sanchez as the next reliable starter. It looks like he’s going to strike out just enough batters (7.14/9 IP career), at worst, and continue to limit the long ball decently and walk very few (2.11/9 IP in ’10). He’s a very rare breed in that he is a funky, three-quarter lefty that throws across his body but manages to throw a pretty hard fastball (91.3 MPH average), and most miraculously, he’s a strike thrower. If his fastball stays where it’s at or even increases a tick, and he sharpens his changeup and slider as strikeout pitches, he may well reach his number one starter ceiling. The Giants’ fourth starter, Sanchez, has the ability to throw a no hitter on any given evening. He’s always going to walk too many batters but his ability to strike out so many batters (9.41/9 IP career) gets him out of trouble, making him one of the very best four starters in baseball.
And then there’s Barry Zito. When discussing him, it’s very important to take his contract ($126 million) and throw it out the window. If you’re able to do that, you’ll see that Zito is one of the best five starters in baseball and hasn’t missed a start since little league. He’s more than likely going to throw 200 or so mediocre innings and smile each time he checks his bank account. But when the rest of the league is playing “Eeny, meeny, miny, moe” at the end of Spring Training to pick a fifth starter, the Giants won’t be – and that’s worth something.
These five starters posted a combined WAR of 15.8 in 2010, or a 3.16 on average, and Bumgarner was only the fifth start for half the season. If he’d pitched 200 innings with similar numbers, he’d have finished with a WAR of 3.7, bringing the Giants’ 2010 rotations cumulative WAR to 17.5, or 3.5 on average. That would have been the equivalent of having the 2010 version of Johan Santana pitch each day – granted, not the Cy Young version – and something tells me that gives your ballclub a decent shot to win.
The Giants have a shutdown bullpen with lots of weapons. Brian Wilson (11.21 K/9, 3.13 BB/9, ratio 3.58, .36 HR/9, 2.19 FIP. 2.7 Wins Above Replacement) is the type of closer that everybody wants but no team really wants to pay for in terms of salary and draft picks, and for good reason. But much like the core of starters San Francisco has, he’s homegrown and developed and still relatively cheap, though he’ll go through arbitration once again this winter. He’s one of the best closers in the league. He’s fearless, throws strikes, gets lots of punch outs and rarely gives up dingers. Romo will continue to spin Frisbee sliders, strike out batters and throw tons of strikes (10.16 K/9 and 5.0 K/BB). The Giants will have three decent lefties in Lopez, Runzler and Affeldt, though there’s some talk to make Runzler a starter. And they’ll have Santiago Casilla back as well, with the option to retain Chris Ray and Ramon Ramirez to round out the bullpen. Sabean will have very little worrying to do over his arms. And given the volatility of relievers, Sabean will have a few interesting and somewhat promising arms to pick from in the minor leagues.
OFFENSE (and DEFENSE)
I feel very confident in saying the Giants are comfortably set at 4 of 8 everyday positions. They will have NL Rookie of the Year Buster Posey – I hope; not that he will be there, he will be, but that he’ll be reining NL RoY – as catcher for 2011 and far, far beyond. They will have Andres Torres (who is arbitration eligible) in center field and batting leadoff. Hopefully, he continues to stay healthy and put up Wins Above Replacement (WAR) north of 4.0, because I think it’d be greedy to hope he repeats his 6.0 WAR from 2010. The Giants will return second baseman Freddy Sanchez and hope for a full season of quality defense and streaky offense. The Giants will also more than likely place NLCS Most Valuable Player, Cody Ross, in right field. His October heroics notwithstanding, Ross was an average hitter in 2008 and 2009 but struggled in 2010. He’s averaged a decent 2 Wins Above Replacement the past two seasons. He has a little bit of pop and can play above average D in either corner outfield spot, including within the tricky AT&T, as well as fill in at center field without hurting the team too much.
Third base is a position that is a question mark at this point. It’s hard to imagine the Giants might have an MVP caliber player at the position, or if not, a player that can’t play the position defensively or carry his weight with the bat. But then that’s the exact position they’re in. If Pablo Sandoval was able to make the necessary lifestyle changes and get himself into shape, he could easily be the middle of the order bat he was in 2009. If not, he could easily find himself as a bench player or a minor leaguer trying to claw his way back to the show. It’s probably also not out of the question for the Giants to move Pablo to a team willing to take the risk on him and give something valuable in return. I’ll bet the Diamondbacks would take Pablo for Stephen Drew, and the Giants sure need a shortstop. But this is the type of trade you hate to do, because Pablo could very well return to form and terrorize them for the next 8-10 years for an in-division team. Another possibility would be moving Panda for Dan Uggla. That would be assuming Uggla doesn’t take an extension from Florida – he already turned down 4 years, $48 million – and that would potentially be an awful lot to give up for a free agent to be.
The Giants have three positions that need to be filled by free agents or in-house options. One such position is left field. Pat Burrell could return but likely isn’t an everyday player any longer. The Giants also have Mark DeRosa returning from wrist surgery, but it’d be more than foolish to assume he can immediately return to being a quality player and meaningful presence in the lineup. I like him better as a super-utility type. The FA market contains Carl Crawford (.378 wOBA, 19 HR, 47 SB, 6.9 WAR)*, Jayson Werth and Johnny Damon among others. Crawford would fit beautifully into the Giants’ lineup and immediately make their pitchers even better with breathtaking outfield defense (to go with Torres and Ross); very few balls would be dropping. He’d very easily slide right into the three spot in the order, instantly making the Giants more athletic while providing extra base power and installing a huge stolen base threat. But, in all likelihood Crawford will be too expensive – he’ll likely take home greater than $100 million – for the Giants to stomach and will sign elsewhere.
*Crawford is sort of a 1992, Barry Bonds lite. He has power (though not as much). He gets on base (though not as much). He can steal 40 bases. He plays remarkable defense in left field. He’s very, very similar to pre-juiced Barry Bonds, though very obviously not on the same level. But who is?
Jayson Werth does a lot of things the Giants could use. He could slip into right field and middle of the order, making room for Ross in left. He hits for power, runs the bases well, is patient and is a good defender. That being said, he apparently hates hitting at AT&T and the Giants prefer a left handed bat. He’ll command a Jason Bay like contact of 4 years, $60 million as a floor and have lots of action from teams like the Red Sox. Furthermore, he’s had some pretty significant splits while hitting in the hitter haven Citizens Bank Park. Having witnessed the enormous drop off of Aaron Rowand first hand, it seems unlikely the Giants would go back to the stove after being burned once. Both Werth and Crawford would cost them their first round draft pick.
It seems likely the Giants would at least explore a trade for David DeJesus again. DeJesus was injured just before the deadline in 2010, and apparently, the Giants were somewhat close to acquiring him at the time. I have little doubt the Giants would wait to see DeJesus in the spring to see how he’s recovering from the torn thumb ligament before pulling the trigger on such a trade. Also, like Uggla, he’ll be a free agent after the 2011 season and thus a hefty price in prospects would likely deter Brian Sabean and the ownership.
The Giants also have a hole to fill at shortstop, and it won’t be easily patched. The Giants’ only in-house options are Brandon Crawford and Ehire Adrianza, and neither is ready. Crawford probably isn’t going to hit enough at the major league level but is a good defender. He hurt himself midseason in 2010 and really hasn’t hit at all since reaching AA before the All-Star break in 2009. Adrianza has moved up a level in each of the last two seasons – he’ll likely start in AA in 2010 – but isn’t near ready with the bat. He may one day be an eight-hole hitter and fantastic defender, but he’s at least a year away.
The Giants’ best option might be potentially departing, NLCS hero, Juan Uribe. Uribe is a plus defender at third but just average at shortstop. He doesn’t have the speed and quickness to field the position and, making matters worse, has shown some wear and tear while playing every day the past season and a half. He often makes up for lack of quickness with a strong arm, but it’s not nearly enough to make him a great defender. Offensively, he will do enough to justify his defense. He can really run into mistakes and hit 24 homeruns in 2010. He’s an all or nothing type hitter and doesn’t get on base nearly enough, making him a frustrating hitter to watch when he’s slumping.
He may well be the best option because the market is barren otherwise. Orlando Cabrera, Cesar Izturis, the Giants’ own Edgar Renteria, Miguel Tejada, Adam Everett and Cristian Guzman head a lackluster class. The Giants’ best option is probably to sign Uribe and hope for the best. Otherwise, I think the Giants will probably have to acquire something via trade. I really like Stephen Drew and would imagine he could be had, but the price would likely be steep.
Finally, the Giants need a first baseman and they and Aubrey Huff have a mutual interest to hook back up, but Huff has every right to explore the FA market. This will be his last chance to earn some bread for his family (and new baby). If Huff is offered something beyond 2 years from another organization, the Giants should move on. Why? Because the Giants have one of the best first base prospects – see my previous post – in Brandon Belt. They could easily slide Belt in now if absolutely necessary, or at worst, sign someone like Lance Berkman to fill in as long as he’s mildly productive and healthy (and cheap). Belt will cost league minimum and is receiving rave reviews from scouts in the Arizona Fall League. If they went this route, they could save money for a big splash acquisition like Carl Crawford. This is unfortunately one of those things where the Giants have to be careful to not get nostalgic with a player that helped bring them their first World Series Championship after 52, often painful years in the City by the Bay. Huff had a career year, forgive me for saying this, but let’s maybe quit while we’re ahead on this one.
QUICK NOTES
Other big names out there Victor Martinez, Carlos Pena, Adam Dunn and Adrian Beltre. Martinez would be an interesting addition. Stick with me here. Martinez could slide into a starting role at first base and play catcher when Posey needs a rest. This would make for an interesting situation where the Giants could forego keeping a backup catcher – meaning the punchless Eli Whiteside – and keep both hitters in the lineup every day. Unfortunately, I think Martinez will command too many years and he would only block Brandon Belt. The same blocking logic goes for Carlos Pena and Adam Dunn. Adrian Beltre put up MVP like overall numbers for Boston while hitting both at home and on the road. His premier defense and solid bat will probably net him the 3-4 year deal he was seeking last winter. He’d be an interesting sign for the Giants in that he could man third and push Pablo over to first, where his glove would play better. But, again, this would only block a productive hitter in Brandon Belt one way or the other eventually. Belt, Beltre and Sandoval would simply be one too many corner infielders. The final wild card in this regard, though, is that the Giants have toyed with Belt in the outfield. But his future is at first base, or at least should be.
The Giants have a difficult offseason ahead. Figuring out what to do with Pablo Sandoval is going to give them a headache all winter long. If Uribe bolts (and even if he doesn’t), shortstop is going to try the Giants’ intelligence (and Lady Luck). They have so many pieces to get right back into the playoffs in 2011. But, mark my words, if mistakes are made on contracts and player personnel and the Giants are struggling in 2011, the reprieve from ridicule and conditional, sincere love for Brian Sabean will disappear like seashells from a vicious beach, and there will be plenty of venom for Razor and Mr. T, F.P. Santangelo, and Marty Lurie on KNBR 680 to wade through again. Such is the nature of sports, and especially of sports talk radio.
Stats provided by Fangraphs
Prospect Season in Progress
Baseball America’s Top 10 for 2010 (+ status / updates following season)
(1) Buster Posey: Graduated – RoY? – already has a World Series ring.
(2) Madison Bumgarner: Graduated, already huge contributor
(3) Zack Wheeler: Fingernail issue cost him development time in first professional campaign
(4) Thomas Neal: Struggled mightily in AA, had a much better second half. 2010 = make or break year
(5) Dan Runzler: Graduated, contributed out of pen in 2010; talks to make him starter
(6) Tommy Joseph: Hit 16 HR in Sally League (A). He’s got major power but contact is an issue.
(7) Roger Kieschnick: Battled injuries and turned in nightmare season at the plate, at a crossroads
(8) Ehire Adrianza: Turned in a solid season at A+ San Jose. His glove is great, but his bat is trailing.
(9) Brandon Crawford: Again struggled with bat in AA. He hurt his wrist and missed key develop. time.
(10) Francisco Peguero: 5-tool threat turned in a pretty outstanding season, question is plate discipline
My Crack at Top 10 for 2011
(1) Brandon Belt (1B):
Belt isn’t just one of the Giants’ hottest prospects – he’s their best prospect, by far – he’s also one of the hottest prospects in all of baseball. He’s in the conversation with the very best first base prospects in baseball, along with Freddie Freeman (ATL) and Eric Hosmer (KC). Belt was drafted in just the fifth round in 2009 out of Texas. The Giants immediately rebuilt his swing – Belt had been mostly a pitcher throughout his young life, being drafted twice as a pitcher before the Giants took him – and he was ready and willing. The results were astounding. Across three levels (A+, AA, AAA), Belt crushed 23 HR, with a .352 AVG, .455 OBP, .620 SLG (1.075 OPS). He walked 93 times and struck out 99, almost a 1:1 ratio. He’s also not just a bat as he’s rumored to be slick around the bag. If the Giants fail to resign Huff, Belt can step in right away. In fact, an argument can be made the Giants should make the switch by inserting Belt and letting Huff walk – getting a draft pick in the process. This could save them money to fill holes where prospect isn’t ready to step in, specifically shortstop. Belt is currently sharpening his skills in the Arizona Fall League and putting up great numbers and showing an outstanding approach.
(2) Zack Wheeler (RHP):
Zack hurt his fingernail in 2010 and really didn’t pitch as much as the Giants would have liked. When he did pitch, he was able to miss a lot of bats but walked far too many batters. Despite the set back from what I’ve read, his ceiling remains a top of the line starter.
(3) Gary Brown (CF):
The Giants draftEd Brown in the first round out of Cal State Fullerton. He’s extremely athletic and fast on both the base paths as well as in CF – he’s likely to be a plus center fielder. He probably won’t hit for much power in the major leagues but should have enough pop to hit gaps and allow him to run for extra bases. He showed almost no plate discipline in college ball so this will be his biggest obstacle, he’ll need to draw more walks or hit for a very high average on balls in play, or preferably both.
(4) Tommy Joseph (C):
See above.
(5) Charlie Culberson (2B):
Culberson was highly regarded coming out of the high school, but fizzled in his first couple of professional seasons. He had a solid campaign hitting in San Jose to put him back on the prospect map. Scouts really like his bat and see him as a solid prospect, but his glove leaves something to be desired. He’s currently destroying the Arizona Fall League, but what’s more important is that scouts like what they are seeing – i.e. it’s not a complete fluke.
(6) Francisco Peguero (CF):
See above.
(7) Ehire Adrianza (SS):
See above.
(8) Brandon Crawford (SS):
See above.
(9) Thomas Neal (LF):
See above.
(10) Eric Surkamp (LHP):
Surkamp is my sleeper pick. He’s missed plenty of bats but hurt his hip in July of 2010. Luckily it wasn’t an arm injury, but it was obviously serious enough to keep him out for the rest of the season. It’s unclear if he’ll jump to AA or repeat in A-Advanced.
Didn’t make it: Roger Kieschnick (RF), Darren Ford (CF), Craig Clark (LHP), Clayton Tanner (LHP)
(1) Buster Posey: Graduated – RoY? – already has a World Series ring.
(2) Madison Bumgarner: Graduated, already huge contributor
(3) Zack Wheeler: Fingernail issue cost him development time in first professional campaign
(4) Thomas Neal: Struggled mightily in AA, had a much better second half. 2010 = make or break year
(5) Dan Runzler: Graduated, contributed out of pen in 2010; talks to make him starter
(6) Tommy Joseph: Hit 16 HR in Sally League (A). He’s got major power but contact is an issue.
(7) Roger Kieschnick: Battled injuries and turned in nightmare season at the plate, at a crossroads
(8) Ehire Adrianza: Turned in a solid season at A+ San Jose. His glove is great, but his bat is trailing.
(9) Brandon Crawford: Again struggled with bat in AA. He hurt his wrist and missed key develop. time.
(10) Francisco Peguero: 5-tool threat turned in a pretty outstanding season, question is plate discipline
My Crack at Top 10 for 2011
(1) Brandon Belt (1B):
Belt isn’t just one of the Giants’ hottest prospects – he’s their best prospect, by far – he’s also one of the hottest prospects in all of baseball. He’s in the conversation with the very best first base prospects in baseball, along with Freddie Freeman (ATL) and Eric Hosmer (KC). Belt was drafted in just the fifth round in 2009 out of Texas. The Giants immediately rebuilt his swing – Belt had been mostly a pitcher throughout his young life, being drafted twice as a pitcher before the Giants took him – and he was ready and willing. The results were astounding. Across three levels (A+, AA, AAA), Belt crushed 23 HR, with a .352 AVG, .455 OBP, .620 SLG (1.075 OPS). He walked 93 times and struck out 99, almost a 1:1 ratio. He’s also not just a bat as he’s rumored to be slick around the bag. If the Giants fail to resign Huff, Belt can step in right away. In fact, an argument can be made the Giants should make the switch by inserting Belt and letting Huff walk – getting a draft pick in the process. This could save them money to fill holes where prospect isn’t ready to step in, specifically shortstop. Belt is currently sharpening his skills in the Arizona Fall League and putting up great numbers and showing an outstanding approach.
(2) Zack Wheeler (RHP):
Zack hurt his fingernail in 2010 and really didn’t pitch as much as the Giants would have liked. When he did pitch, he was able to miss a lot of bats but walked far too many batters. Despite the set back from what I’ve read, his ceiling remains a top of the line starter.
(3) Gary Brown (CF):
The Giants draftEd Brown in the first round out of Cal State Fullerton. He’s extremely athletic and fast on both the base paths as well as in CF – he’s likely to be a plus center fielder. He probably won’t hit for much power in the major leagues but should have enough pop to hit gaps and allow him to run for extra bases. He showed almost no plate discipline in college ball so this will be his biggest obstacle, he’ll need to draw more walks or hit for a very high average on balls in play, or preferably both.
(4) Tommy Joseph (C):
See above.
(5) Charlie Culberson (2B):
Culberson was highly regarded coming out of the high school, but fizzled in his first couple of professional seasons. He had a solid campaign hitting in San Jose to put him back on the prospect map. Scouts really like his bat and see him as a solid prospect, but his glove leaves something to be desired. He’s currently destroying the Arizona Fall League, but what’s more important is that scouts like what they are seeing – i.e. it’s not a complete fluke.
(6) Francisco Peguero (CF):
See above.
(7) Ehire Adrianza (SS):
See above.
(8) Brandon Crawford (SS):
See above.
(9) Thomas Neal (LF):
See above.
(10) Eric Surkamp (LHP):
Surkamp is my sleeper pick. He’s missed plenty of bats but hurt his hip in July of 2010. Luckily it wasn’t an arm injury, but it was obviously serious enough to keep him out for the rest of the season. It’s unclear if he’ll jump to AA or repeat in A-Advanced.
Didn’t make it: Roger Kieschnick (RF), Darren Ford (CF), Craig Clark (LHP), Clayton Tanner (LHP)
Tuesday, September 7, 2010
Formidable, Fruitful Farm (?)
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| Francisco Peguero at the XM All-Star Futures Game |
Let’s get the elephant in the room out of the way first, Brandon Belt. I’ve written about him as recently as a few days ago and simply want to relay his final line of 2010 – before he goes to the Arizona Fall League of course – and pass along some quotes from Baseball America. Belt finished his season across three minor league levels (A-Advanced, AA, AAA) with: 595 PA, 99 R, 173 H, 43 2B, 10 3B, 23 HR, 112 RBI, 22 SB, 8 CS, 93 BB, 99K, .352 AVG, .455 OBP, .620 SLG and 1.075 OPS. Simply remarkable for a guy that didn’t make it onto the Baseball America’s top 30 Giants prospects list coming into 2010. It’ll take some more time to figure out what the Giants really have in him, but I think there’s a good bet he’ll be a solid everyday contributor, and soon. John Manuel of BA said that Belt was among the top dozen players considered for their Minor League Player of the Year award, which went to Rays pitching prospect Jeremy Hellickson. He also said: “Belt did get a lot of consideration. For me, he had the best year of anyone in the minors this season. In the past, we’ve stayed away from guys who were good or OK prospects who had monster years, and we’ve been proven correct…” He goes on to talk about why it’s important to be cautious with guys like Belt who break out. Fair enough, I don’t mind if Belt stays somewhat under the radar and is given a chance to succeed without heaped on expectation.
Another interesting prospect for the Giants is Francisco Peguero (78 R, 19 2B, 16 3B, 10 HR, 40 SB, 22 CS, .329 AVG, .358 OBP, .488 SLG, and .846 OPS) of the San Jose Giants – A Advanced. I had a chance to watch him play in the Cal League championship game in 2009. He was very impressive and followed that playoff appearance with a full season in San Jose this year. Peguero obviously posted a nice batting average, but his OBP leaves something to be desired. That’s because he walked only 18 times in 538 plate appearances and struck out 88 times. That will be his primary question mark going into the future. Peguero still has time to improve his relative patience, though a 180 degree turn around is basically impossible. Hitters are who they are. What’s intriguing about Peguero are his tools. He’s extremely fast and athletic as evidenced by his stolen bases and 16 triples. He’s also rumored to be a plus outfielder with an excellent arm. Peguero will have to prove he can harness these skills and be a plus center fielder for the Giants to stomach the lack of patience. If he can spray the ball into the gaps and prove he can keep solid contact rates – he’s got a chance. Triples alley could prove to be his best friend. He must also address his base running. 40 SB in 62 attempts is unacceptable. You can see why the Giants added him to the 40 man roster to protect him from this years Rule V draft. Also in San Jose, the Giants have a shortstop prospect in Ehire Adrianza. He didn’t light up the California League offensively but he’s an excellent defender. He and Crawford – who I’ll mention later – are the closest thing SF has to a shortstop of the future. Adrianza has a little bit of speed and knows how to draw a walk. That skill is important for his development if he ever wants to contribute in the major leagues.
The Giants essentially took the California League 2009 Champions – the San Jose Giants – and bumped them to AA Richmond for 2010. The results were underwhelming to put it mildly. One of the Giants’ top hitting prospects, Thomas Neal, had a breaking out party in 2009 but fell far short of expectations in AA in 2010. He did start to figure things out and hit much better in the second half, but he missed time at the very end of the season. His final line included only 12 HR and a .799 OPS. Roger Kieschnick seemed like a possible slugger in 2009 as he hit 23 HR and slugged .532. Unfortunately, he struggled with injuries this year and only took about 220 bats and hit 4 HR with a .673 OPS. Brandon Crawford (.712 OPS) again struggled in AA, creating a huge question mark on his ability to be an even average hitting shortstop in the major leagues. His glove is supposedly ready but his bat is lagging in a big way. Exacerbating things, Crawford went down with an injury and missed key development time. What’s more, the Giants don’t have a shortstop to step into the hole the oft maligned Edgar Renteria will leave when he exits for free agency and / or retirement. Crawford is thought to be the closest thing the Giants have in their system to being major league ready, and that’s going to be a problem. They were in the same position two years ago and ended up forking over $20 M for Renteria’s services. Darren Ford had an outstanding spring and seemed poised to break out but struggled with the bat as well. So did Conor Gillaspie, who’s been a huge disappointment after being picked in the supplemental first round after being the Cape Cod’s best hitter coming out of college. It seems likely he will never hit enough for a third baseman and his glove is a frying pan. His patience and batting eye were his calling card in years past, but fell off considerably in 2010 with only 37 walks and a .335 OBP. Nick Noonan continues to not be the highly touted player they believed they selected out of high school. His .532 OPS looks like that of a pitcher. Other than Belt’s brief stint in Richmond, it was an incredibly boring offensive season for the Flying Squirrels.
Unfortunately, the Giants appear to have very little of use in AAA Fresno. They of course promoted both Buster Posey and Madison Bumgarner which is of course a large reason for that. In the lower levels, Zack Wheeler had an injury to his fingernail and missed significant time. But, when he did pitch he looks to have been impressive at times. He hasn’t yet allowed a HR in pro ball in 58 innings and has struck 70 batters (10.74/ 9 IP). The Giants will cross their fingers he takes the Matt Cain path to the Bay.
Overall, the Giants have some interesting pieces but definitely appear to lack the depth they had a year ago with Posey’s and Bumgarner’s promotion. They’ve just added Jeremy Brown from Fullerton to their stable of athletic center fielders as well. The prospect of signing Carl Crawford in the offseason intrigues me, but the thought of giving up future first-round draft picks scares me considerably. Franchises with more modest payrolls – relative to the Yankees and Red Sox at least – need to build from the ground up. The Giants have done a wonderful job of that recently and I hope they can continue their current success.
If any of this interests you at all, I recommend going to check out Peguero in the playoffs starting Saturday, September 11th in San Jose at 6 PM. The link provided is a brilliant analogy of the difference between those who interested in the intricacies of the farm pieces and how they fit, and the majority who are only engaged when the final product emerges.
Friday, September 3, 2010
Below the Belt?
I don’t quite understand why this was so offensive to many. Whatever Bryan Smith, or Keith Law or Jim Callis thinks, essentially means nothing when all is said and done. Their job is to make broad assumptions on the informatin they have – the mechanics of the swing, the track record of skills, and the makeup of the player. Their job certainly isn’t to predict the future. The other issue is that the term “star” is relatively subjective, and, Bryan mentioned in the comments that his use of star in this case was a top-3 player in the league at his position. Well, the NL has Price Fielder, Albert Pujols, Adrian Gonzalez and Joey Votto. The NL also currently has Adam Dunn. Is Belt going to be good as these guys? Is he going to be close? I really have no idea, but I know the odds are stacked against him. Waterworld had $175 million reasons to succeed, and Clerks just $27 thousand. The point is, you never really know until they get to “The Show.”
Here’s what we actually know. In Belt’s professional debut which begain in A-Advanced, he hit .383 with a .492 on base percentage and .628 slugging percentage. He also only stuck out 50 times while walking 58 times. He hit 28 doubles, 4 triples and 10 HR of 333 plater appearances. He was considered slightly young for this level but less so considering he came from the NCAA. Belt moved up to AA where he joined essentially the California League Champions of 2009, where the Giants were hoping he would avoid the same fate of Brandon Crawford. Many standouts and legitimate prospects from the Cal League champs who had moved up a level – Neal, Ford and Kieschnick – had struggled mightily there. Belt took the challenge and hit .337 with a .413 on base percentage and a .623 slugging percentage. He also hit 11 doubles, 6 triples and 9 HR in just 201 plate appearances. His BB/KK ratio took a slight hit but was still solid with 22 walks and 34 strikeouts. The Giants flipped him to AAA Fresno about a week ago and thus far he’s stepped up to the challenge. In the admittedly tiny sample of 39 plate appearances, Belt has already hit 3 HR and 2 doubles. He’s thus far hit .276 with an on base percentage of .462 – thanks to already drawing 10 walks – and a slugging percentage of .655. His strikeout rate has certainly increased as he has ascended, but not alarmingly so.
There are two factors that I believe might be most important in all of this. First off, Belt has been younger than average at every level this year. That’s important because a collegiate hitter or an older player beating up on lower level pitchers just isn’t that impressive, as Rob Neyer pointed out in lieu of Brandon Wood’s scheduled trip to the Arizona Fall League. Secondly, the Giants completely revamped Belt’s swing prior to setting him loose in San Jose this year. The fact that he’s been so consistent and put up such ridiculous numbers while also trying to figure out the new Brandon Belt in the box is remarkable.
The Giants know that Jose Guillen is one speed bump away from a full blown blowout. They also obviously have the greatest feel among those who care for what Belt’s capable of, considering all of the scouting they did of him both prior to taking him in the fifth round last year out of the University of Texas and across three levels this year. He’s played 8 games thus far in Fresno, 5 of which he spent in the outfield (and 4 in right). If they didn’t feel there was some possibility he could help this year, why would they do that? Maybe he’s just a plan B in case of injury, but to say that there is a strong likelihood that a third straight homegrown hitting prospect will soon be contributing significantly in San Fran after years and years of disappointment has me properly stoked would be a gross understatement.
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