Making sense of the Giants' offseason (thus far)

So what’s the Giants’ plan? To be honest, it’s not terribly clear.  One has to believe that the plan was largely to rebuild the roster that won them a World Series. That fact is perfectly obvious. They re-signed Aubrey Huff, their best player from 2010. They brought back Pat Burrell, one of their best midseason moves of 2010 and most critical contributors in the second half. They signed Miguel Tejada, who basically replaced Juan Uribe with an extremely similar – and significantly more ripened – skill set, but at a substantially cheaper price in terms of years, and slightly cheaper in annual value. Regardless of how you feel about these moves, be it they were brilliant or misguided, the intent was clear. After that, though, it’s gotten a bit confusing.
 
To make this simple, let’s eliminate Posey and Whiteside. That leaves 23 roster spots remaining. Let’s also eliminate the twelve man pitching staff, which let’s face it, is inevitable. My guess would be: Lincecum, Bumgarner, Cain, Sanchez, Zito as starters, and Wilson, Romo, Casilla, Affeldt, Lopez, Runzler and Ramirez as relievers. There is one wrinkle, though. The Giants have been said to be trying to convert Runzler into a starting pitcher. Why? I’m not exactly sure. I read Sabean said that Runzler’s best shot at making the bullpen is to stretch out and become a long reliever. Let’s ignore the fact that he’s younger, cheaper and has better peripherals than Jeremy Affeldt – thus may be a more serviceable non-LOOGY lefty out of the ‘pen than Jeremy, whom I still adore for his Game Six emergency innings against Philly, by the way. But anyway, that’s perhaps a discussion for another time.
 
That leaves us with 11 remaining roster spots. And this is where I can’t say with absolute certainty I know where the roster is headed. The starters will be Sandoval at third, Tejada at shortstop, Sanchez at second and Huff at first. That leaves 7. In the outfield, you have to expect it to be Torres in center, Ross in right and DeRosa in left. Each one of these players is under contract; each of them will be on the roster. That leaves 4. That leaves Ishikawa (league minimum or about), Mike Fontenot (re-signed for $1 million), Aaron Rowand (still here for 2 years and too much), Pat Burrell (re-signed for $1 million) and Nate Schierholtz (league minimum or about). If you’ve lost count, that’s already one too many.
 
Another possibility is that Brandon Belt could make the club. Brian Sabean gushed about him yesterday – seriously, he talked about not only his defense and advanced hitting approach, but also about his base running – and said that he’d be given an opportunity to make the club as either a first baseman or left fielder. He’d essentially be displacing Aubrey Huff to whichever position he doesn’t end up. This seems a real possibility to me. If that happens, the Giants have two too many.
 
And in case that’s not enough for you, the Giants also have interest in returning Edgar Renteria. They don’t just have interest because they’ve actually already made him an offer. That’s now three too many. And if you wanted to make it four, you could, because Sabean has also made it clear he would like an additional left-handed bat.
 
And when you lay it all out this way you can only come to two conclusions: 1) the Giants don’t know what they want to do with the roster, and in some cases they can’t quite know because of players like Brandon Belt that they feel they need to see in the spring, and thus are collecting as many pieces as possible or 2) they are getting ready to move a player of two. That could simply mean optioning Ishikawa or Schierholtz or both to AAA, or that could mean a trade. But in any case, you have only 25 roster spots; I don’t think any of these guys have minor league options, and something has to give.
 
There’s also a good chance that Mark DeRosa won’t be right, again, or Freddy Sanchez’s shoulder will take longer than thought to heal. And if that’s the case, the Giants are clearly covered. But it’s probably safe to say the Giants again won’t have a set lineup in 2010, at least not at its outset, but believe it or not they might be getting closer to one – Torres, Sanchez, Huff, Posey, Sandoval, Ross, Belt, and Tejada. Believe it or not, that’s a perfectly balanced lineup that never has a righty and a lefty hitting back to back.
 
I think the safest conclusion is that you just need to wait and see. They don’t know how they all fit yet, so how can we? You can keep on trying, god knows it’s fun, but you’re just going to tie your brain into a knot.

Who’s on First? Hopefully, Brandon Belt

Let’s first off hope that Brandon Belt is not the next Brandon Wood. Let’s also hope, however reluctantly and painfully, it’s also not Aubrey Huff on first. *Dodges thrown sharp objects*
 
The 2010 Giants season was the single greatest sporting experience of my life. I grew a beard, and for each game wore the same gray t-shirt, Giants pullover and a pair of Washington State University sweats – Thank you for those, my lovely fiancé Caley! That was once I’d discovered they were OBVIOUSLY the source of all the Brooks Conrad errors, Cody Ross home runs, one run wins, and of Javier Lopez’s lefty destroying magic. I lost my sanity several dozen times and scared the daylights out of my 11 LB dog in the process. It was wonderful. And without Aubrey Huff, the 2010 Giants almost certainly wouldn’t have won the division, eliminated the Braves, won the pennant and taken home the first World Series championship in San Francisco history. With that being said, let’s please set aside the nostalgia for the time being, and determine what is the best course for the now restored to glory franchise.
 
Allow me to state some facts, using the sandwich technique. Aubrey Huff is a fantastic baseball player, who has had his two best statistical years in two of the past three seasons. He is a wonderful clubhouse presence to boot. So was Ken Griffey Jr. in 2009 and 2010. Aubrey Huff will be 34 years in old 32 days. Players, on average, peak at ages 27 to 32. Despite his lauded defense in 2010 and +9.7 UZR at first base, his career first base UZR is -3.0, his career outfield UZR -29.0. Experts agree it takes two to three seasons to get a representative and therefore ultimately accurate sample of fielding to derive a players true defensive ability.
 
In the first half, Aubrey Huff hit 17 home runs, walked 43 times and struck out 40 times, hit .295, and posted an on-base percentage (OBP), slugging percentage (SLG), and on-base plus slugging percentage (OPS) of .384/.544/.929. He did this with a .287 batting average on balls in play (BABiP). In the second half, he hit 9 home runs, walked 40 times and struck out 51, hit .284 and had a respectable OBP/SLG/OPS – This is his “slash” line – of .385/.462/.847. He did this with a somewhat inflated BABiP of .317, when his career mark is .293.
 
Aubrey Huff will likely be seeking a two to three year offer of around $8 to $10 million annually. Given his brilliant 2010 season, he 1) deserves it and 2) will likely get it. Moreover, this is not LIKELY, but rather IS, the final time in his career he will have a chance to cash in on a decent contract. I like Huff quite a lot; I will always have a special place in my heart for his 2010 production, leadership, and unforgettable red rally thong, all of which propelled the Giants to achieve something that I never dreamed of, certainly not so soon. I’m on par with the biggest and most loyal Giants fan you’re likely to ever run into, and now that I’ve tasted victory I want more. Would another championship feel THIS good? I can’t say; I’ll posit probably not. However, I want to find out.
 
More facts: The Giants have a first baseman in their minor league system that they drafted in the fifth round of the 2009 draft. His name is Brandon Belt. He is 6’5” and around 200 pounds. He was a high profile pitcher for most of his college career, but the Giants signed him as a hitter, saying: “…he’s just learning to hit…” and  “…all the upside is in front of this guy (Doug Mapson to Baseball Beginnings, 8/31/2009).” He would also say that the Giants have “…instructors we pay a lot of money in order to help these young hitters…” Instruct him, they did.
 
Belt confirmed to Project Prospect on Nov 7, 2010, that “…the [Giants] organization, they opened me up, they raised my hands, and they got me up out of the crouch just a little bit just so I could stay stacked in my upper body. And so far it’s worked out pretty well for me.” I’d say so. He also confirmed the changes helped him improve his bat speed and “…getting’ [his] hips through the ball.” It’s also clearly helped him shorten his swing and cover up the hole on the inside of his swing. He will still have a hole, every hitter does – Yes, even Pujols – but the idea is to shrink the hole and make it such that most if not all pitchers cannot consistently make pitches to that hole.
 
With his freshly redesigned swing, Belt went ballistic. He had 333 plate appearances in A-Advanced San Jose and hit 10 home runs, stole 18 bases – Proving his athleticism and baseball acumen – hit .383 and had a slash-line of .455/.620/1.121 for an impossible weighted on-base average (wOBA) of .489. He then graduated to AA Richmond, a league in which hitters routinely struggle, including Giants prospects, and in 201 plate appearances hit 9 home runs, hit .337, and had a slash line of .413/.623/1.036 for a spectacular .447 wOBA. Finally, he moved on to AAA Fresno for just 61 plate appearances. He managed 4 home runs but only hit .229 – He was battered with an unlucky .241 BABiP – in a very small sample. Luckily, he walked 13 times and had a triple slash line of .393/.563/.956 for a still quite great wOBA of .419. His final tally in his first professional season, while playing excellent defense and discovering a new swing: 23 home runs, 10 triples, 43 doubles, 22 stolen bases, 93 walks to just 99 strikeouts, a .352 average and a slash line of .455/.620/1.075. Not bad in a years work. But wait…
 
The Giants sent Belt to the Arizona Fall League (AFL) for further seasoning – Also, likely to see if he might be ready for opening day. The league is typically composed of some of the very best prospects in baseball, and this year is no exception, including Dustin Ackley and Bryce Harper. Belt jumped right in and through the end of the regular season and 84 at bats has hit .372 with 1 home run, 8 doubles, and 5 triples for a slash line of .427/.616/1.043, slashing line drives through the warm air in the fall desert. He will be playing in the AFL championship game this coming Saturday.
 
The consensus among scouts is that his season was no fluke at all:
 
A scout told Jayson Stark, on Belt: “You can have [Bryce] Harper. Give me that kid. He’s got a chance to be Larry Walker. Athletic. Powerful, Good defender. And he hits the ball line-to-line with thunder.”
 
Jason Grey is a scout for ESPN, and said this about Belt: “Having… [seen Belt] for the first couple of weeks of the AFL. There’s no doubt in my mind Belt is legit and a potential middle–of-the-order threat in a big league lineup capable of hitting for average and power.” He went on to say “I’ve liked Belt’s Approach, the quality of his at-bats, his ability to generate power without over swinging and his ability to go to the opposite field with some juice. He’s played good defense at first base and has showed good athleticism, enough that I’ve changed my mind to think he might not look out of place should the Giants choose to play him in left field, where he dabbled a little bit in the minors this year.”
 
Keith Law – ESPN.com and lead analyst for Scouts Inc. – has repeatedly said: “Belt is a potential star.”
 
All of the praise for Belt has him currently pegged as the number two first base prospect in the minors, behind only Eric Hosmer*.
 
*Hosmer comes from the farm system of the Kansas City Royals, a franchise that is the American League’s version of the Pirates, but also a franchise that’s farm system is busting at the seams with tremendous prospects. Hosmer was taken third overall in 2008, two ahead of Posey. Kevin Goldstein – Scout and Player Development expert for Baseball Prospectus – said: “The more I write up these Royals prospects, the harder a time I have figuring out a way they can screw this up.” In 2010 as a 20 year old in A Advanced and AA – He was young in BOTH leagues – he hit 20 home runs, 43 doubles, 9 triples, walked 59 times to just 66 strikeouts, hit .338 and put up a triple slash line of .406/.571/.977. It may be needless to say, but given his age, where he was drafted and the numbers he’s put up, it’s not an insult Belt is penciled in behind him.
 
My gut tells me that the Giants ought to install Belt at first base, his natural position, and use the money they saved on not signing Huff to a multi-year deal on a solid, two-way corner outfielder. I’ve looked at the Giants’ roster, and by resigning Huff and Uribe they won’t be getting any younger. Also, having looked at the roster, it’s easy to draw the conclusion that the Giants’ payroll is going to near or exceed $100 million with contract commitments and arbitration raises – Which was their approximate payroll in 2010 – before they sign a single free agent and fill their corner outfield, first base and shortstop vacancies.
 
Given their need for a shortstop – There’s nothing ready on the farm – as well as the scarcity of a decent shortstop option in this years crop of free agents, I think Uribe is the obvious of the two to resign. Otherwise, the Giants should engineer a trade for a shortstop, which actually might be their best option. If they take this route, they can spend some what little money they have on a left fielder and install Belt at first for league minimum. This is the most cost-effective way for the Giants to maximize their production within the constraints of their payroll, and I just don’t see any scenario in which signing Huff to a multi-year deal helps them in the long run. Again, as painful as that is to say and for any Giants fan to hear (or read).

Stats provided by Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference