First off, it should not be remotely surprising that Brian Sabean has chosen to sign Miguel Tejada. He went with the established veteran, something he’s done time and time again throughout his tenure. Let’s take a look at the two established veterans that just departed, Renteria and Uribe. Both were considered leaders in the clubhouse, like Tejada, and one hit an NLCS clinching HR while the other hit the World Series winning HR against one of the best pitchers in baseball, sealing his Fall Classic MVP. This all but confirmed Sabean's philosophy, so of all the responses you should have following this announcement, shock should be the last.
It’s also important to quickly dispel the myth that Tejada HAS power. He HAD power. People hear Tejada and they think he has pop, but in his current, 36-year-old state that couldn't be further from the truth; his 2010 slugging percentage of .381 was a point lower than Scott Podsednik. Rumor dispatched.
Something he also far from possesses, and this holds true now and throughout his entire career, is plate discipline. If you think Uribe likes to hack, you probably won’t be thrilled to learn that Tejada saw fewer pitches per plate appearance (P/PA) than Juan in 2010 (3.34 versus 3.59). Tejada had a 90 OPS+ in ’10 – that’s 10% worse than a league average hitter – to go along with a .306 weighted on base average (wOBA), .312 on base percentage (OBP), .381 slugging percentage (SLG), and .693 OPS. That’s awful.
Bill James projects he'll rebound slightly to the tune of a .320 wOBA in ‘11, but he's no upgrade over what the Giants had in 2010 with Renteria (.314 wOBA) and Uribe (.322 wOBA). More likely, he's a downgrade, both offensively and defensively.
He's had negative defensive ratings by Fangraphs in 9 of 13 seasons (-4.9 wins career) and in 10 of 13 by Baseball-reference (-6.7 wins career). Which is to say, they never thought his defense was good, and because he'll turn 37 in May, it’s bound to be atrocious. You wouldn't mind the defense if he was still hitting even near as well as he was in his prime, but he's not, and he won't again.
One thing he does do is play every day, and that’s probably worth something. But he will need to again be worth the 1.35 wins above replacement (WAR) he was in 2010 to earn his paycheck. His WAR was 1.35 when you blend his 2010 WAR 50/50 between Fangraphs (1.3) and Baseball-Reference (1.4). He’ll need to play at least that well to be worth the $6.5 million they're paying him at the rate of $4.5 to $5 million per win (which is the believed to be value of a win above replacement on the open market currently).
*1.35 WAR x ($4.5 or $5.0) = $6.075 to $6.75 million, or right on the money
The trouble is, there’s reason to believe he won’t play that well. Players at such an advanced age lose about a half a win per season on average, at least. Some work by Tom Tango recently revealed that it's probably appropriate to regress even more aggressively with players over 33 to the tune of 0.7 wins per season. If that holds true, and even if we take the higher market value of $5 million per win and the higher WAR figure from Baseball-Reference of 1.4, he'd regress to 0.7 wins above replacement in 2011, or a value of $3.5 million. However you look at it, it looks as though the Giants are paying him fair value, best case scenario, or about $3 million too much worst case scenario. In my wildest dreams he might be worth two wins next year, but I’d be happy if he again hit 1.3 wins above replacement.
The silver lining in all of this is pretty obvious, though. While Sabean surely did not avoid going the once-upon-a-time-a-star, veteran route, he did manage to avoid doling out a multi year deal. Progress! Tejada will be a one year stop-gap to give the Giants' minor league options time to develop. If none of them (Brandon Crawford and Ehire Adrianza, specifically) pan out, they'll again look to build another bridge to the next prospect, or fill the need via free agency or the trade market.
It's easy to ridicule, tar and feather Sabean for this deal based on Tejada's recent success (or rather, lack there of), but we all knew the shortstop options weren't attractive. Many would have probably preferred Uribe at 3 years and $21 million, but those in favor would also likely be first in line to crucify Sabean when in two years he isn't hitting, a serviceable shortstop, healthy, or some combination of the three. The truth of it is this: Uribe may and likely will be the better player in 2011, but after that the Dodgers are on the hook for two more seasons and an additional $14 million. The Giants won’t be.
The Giants picked one out of a stable of unattractive options, and are content to see how it works and buy themselves enough time to find a long-term option later. What were the other options? As far as free agents go, there was Cezar Izturis with his .248 wOBA and -0.3 WAR. There was Orlando Cabrera with the .292 wOBA and 1.3 WAR. There was Edgar Renteria with a .314 wOBA and 1.3 WAR but who can’t possibly be expected to play even half a season. There was Adam Everett with his .210 wOBA and -0.3 WAR in just 31 games this past season. There was Christian Guzman and his .287 wOBA and -0.1 WAR. Are you getting the picture? Trade candidates who would cost a prospect or two were: Jason Bartlett (.302 wOBA, 0.7 WAR), J.J. Hardy (.313 wOBA, 2.4 WAR) and Ryan Theriot who was already shipped to the Cardinals by the Dodgers. There was technically Derek Jeter. He, however, would have cost more than the Yankees were willing to pay, or upwards of $45 million over three seasons, which can also be described as a sum likely far greater than his actual worth.
The truth is the options were awful, and throwing darts at a board of their names or faces would have been about as productive. The Giants get a sandwich pick between the first and second rounds because Uribe went to the Dodgers as a Type B free agent. The Giants also didn’t sign themselves up to a multi-year deal with a player they weren’t wild about – Uribe was clearly in this category. Finally, they didn’t cost themselves a prospect, and Sabean has been clutching them tightly in recent years, the results of which cannot be argued with.
One thing to keep in mind and certainly keep an eye on is this: If Pablo doesn't return to his 2009 form or something approaching it, the wheels could fall off the left side of the infield in a hurry. The lack of range on the left side would be frightening, and the lack of plate discipline and propensity to ground into double plays between them could be horrifying. This is the nightmare scenario. What’s more, if either J.J. Hardy or Jason Bartlett are non-tendered instead of traded, the Giants may have painted themselves into a corner in which they cannot negotiate for their services due to lack of payroll. This seems unlikely, but it’s a possibility.
A blanket goal of the offseason should have been to improve. On top of that, the front office explicitly acknowledged a desire to get more athletic and more left-handed. They've accomplished neither the specific goals nor the blanket goal to this point in the offseason, and it’s far from apparent that additional moves will change any of that.
Hopefully, management recognizes quickly – if they have not already – that while the results of 2010 were a Dream Come True, the path taken was far from a straight line. The savvy veteran will not always hit an opposite field home run to win the pennant. The aged shortstop will not always hit an improbably home run off of the elite left-handed pitcher. Pitchers have down years and players get hurt; no matter how good your pitching is, the goal should never be to score "3 to 4 runs per game." The Giants simply MUST find a way to eclipse 700 runs by some significant number, or else they'll be missing the playoffs more often than they’d like.
Am I wild about Tejada? No. But after further reflection following my initial knee-jerk reaction, he’s not a disaster.
Insightful baseball analysis for the casual crowd, Moneyball masses and you, the Third and King crew
Showing posts with label Juan Uribe. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Juan Uribe. Show all posts
Wednesday, December 1, 2010
Monday, November 29, 2010
Juan Uribe signs with Dodgers
Juan Uribe has officially signed with the hated Dodgers, pending a physical, and yet I harbor no ill feelings toward him. Prior to the 2009 season, Juan Uribe couldn’t find a job and the Giants signed him to a minor league contract. Despite the slight salary, he gathered 2.8 wins above replacement (Fangraphs version of WAR) in just 122 games while playing several infield positions. Uribe hoped his season would earn him a multi-year deal following that campaign, but it just didn’t in a down economy that impacted even professional sports. The Giants re-signed him for $3.25M in 2010 and he helped them significantly with a 3.2 WAR and some late game heroics. He was a huge reason the Giants won the World Series.
Jeff Kent went to the Dodgers and it was terribly fun to boo him. Jason Schmidt signed with them too, and immediately turned into Mike Hampton. That wasn’t necessarily FUN to watch, though if it were enjoyable to watch ANYONE rot on the DL, he’d have to be playing for the Dodgers. I’d like to say I wish Uribe well, but I’m just not sure I do. Not yet, anyway. No, rather I’m mostly happy that he finally earned some money that was well deserved. This was his third crack at free agency, and the first two shots yielded him A) a minor league deal and B) a one year deal of $3.25M. This 3/$21M pact will set him and his family up for life, and for that I am happy for him.
And when HE is flashing that World Series ring to his teammates in L.A. – Isn’t that a wonderful thought? –this is how I will be remembering him.
Juan Uribe THE LEGEND
It grows and grows…
May 15, 2010
Juan Uribe, in the fourth inning, took Roy Oswalt deep with one on to give the Giants the narrow lead, 2-1. Lincecum would go eight and Wilson would save it. Uribe’s blast was all the offense the Giants needed, and he and Oswalt would meet again.
June 7, 2010
Uribe would finish this ballgame with 4 RBI, the last two coming off of a single in the seventh that scored two and put the Giants up 6-5, and secured the win against the Reds.
August 14, 2010
In August the Giants needed a series win against the Padres, but more than that, they desperately needed to avoid a sweep and one at home no less. They trailed by two in this game into the seventh against the hated Latos – he who perplexingly called the Giants a bunch of mercenaries, meanwhile his shortstop and left fielder were of the same ilk, and who also destroyed the sun roof on our beloved Dave Fleming’s new car; seriously, who fires a baseball into the players parking lot? In the seventh, Panda chased him by clobbering an eye-high fastball into the water. Burrell provided an RBI ground out in the eighth. And finally in the eleventh, Posey doubled, Pablo was intentionally walked, and “Jazz Hands” Uribe singled home Buster in walk off fashion. Mayhem ensued.
September 4, 2010
On a warm, clear night in Los Angeles, the Dodgers were leading against San Francisco by 4 runs from the bottom of the fourth and into the seventh at Chavez Ravine. Then Posey hit a solo shot in the seventh, and Renteria – one of just 3 HR in the regular season – led off with one in the eighth. Dotel relieved Lilly, and was rudely greeted when Burrell went Yahtzee next – this was, of course, a little over a month after Burrell burned Broxton for a game winning two-run blast on July 31. And finally in the ninth, Uribe delivered the crippling blow to the Dodgers with a two-run job off of their fallen closer, Jonathan Broxton, after a Cody Ross hustle, infield single. All was quiet, and the crowd of 48,220 (paid) emptied the bleachers, retired from their orange bucket seats and hurried to their crowded freeways.
October 20, 2010
The Giants went up 2-0 early with Bumgarner on the hill. Then, in the fifth, the Phillies put up a crooked number and it was 4-2 Phillies. But Huff singled home a run in the fifth to bring the Giants within one, and Pablo Sandoval hit a left-center gap double that scored two in the sixth – this was the biggest hit of his young career and his second double of the at bat – and the Giants led again. Lopez’s only blemish of the entire postseason – seriously – came in the eighth when Howard doubled off of him and Romo relented a Werth double that tied it in relieving him. But in the ninth, Manuel went with his starter Oswalt because it was his throw day, and because Roy talked him into it. Huff singled and Posey sent him first to third with an opposite field single following an epic battle, and also after going down 0 and 2. Uribe came up and Oswalt did everything to light Uribe’s hands on fire with fastballs in, because Uribe had a sore wrist. Except, he tried to get tricky and Uribe lofted his low changeup deep enough to left for Huff to score on a sacrifice fly. The home crowd went ballistic, and watching at home, so did I. The Giants were within a win of the Fall Classic.
October 23, 2010
The Giants went down early in game six of the NLCS. It was 2-0 after one, and Jonathan Sanchez was anything but sharp. But Sanchez singled in the top of the third and started a rally that tied the game 2-2. But then, he walked Polanco and hit Utley. Utley and he had history, and Utley somewhat politely tossed the ball towards the mound, which Sanchez took exception to. The benches cleared completely, except for a mild tempered fellow named Jeremy Affeldt, known for tweeting inspiration quotes, and his bullpen coach Mark Gardner. When the dust settled, Affeldt pitched two spectacular innings of no run ball, the first of which got them out of a two on, no out disaster. Then Bumgarner pitched two innings of no run relief. Then Lopez pitched an inning of no run relief. And in Ryan Madson’s second inning of relief, Juan Uribe did something he rarely does. He hit an opposite field, 346 foot home run that barely cleared the wall. I lost my mind. Soon after, Tim Lincecum struck out Jayson Werth before being relieved by Wilson, Ryan Howard looked disgusted while eyeing strike three, and the Giants won the pennant. Uribe was instantly enshrined in Giants lore.
Juan Uribe THE MAN
Now that I’ve covered the legend, I’ll try to throw in my two cents on whether the Dodgers did well on this contract, and therefore if the Giants missed out by not matching the deal.
Over the past two seasons, Juan Uribe has played third, second and shortstop for the Giants, and clubbed 40 combined home runs (16, 24). In those seasons, Fangraphs’ ultimate zone rating (UZR) has liked him at third (2.2, 2.6) and second (3.7, 2.1) in particular, and hasn’t hated him at short (-2.8, 2.1). His .351 weighted on base average (wOBA) was above average at .351 in 2009, and 10 to 20 points below average in 2010 (.322), though plenty good for a shortstop where he largely played. The Dodgers, however, have him slated for second in 2011. To be fair though, it seems likely he’ll spend time at short too when Furcal inevitably goes down to one physical malady or another.
Will Juan live up to the $21 million he’ll make over the next three seasons? Maybe. Offensively, his on base percentage (OBP) in 2009 was just fine at .329 when coupled with his .495 slugging percentage (SLG). But if his OBP continues to erode like it did in 2010 (.310), and should his slugging too (.440 in ‘10), the contract will soon be looked upon suspiciously. His career OBP is just .300 after all, and his slugging just .431. And, his .322 wOBA is far less palatable if he’s playing second base, and it’s not far-fetched to hypothesize it’ll be around there where his career wOBA is just .312.
Defensivley, Uribe has posted positive UZR ratings in 6 of the past 7 seasons, and his only negative mark was just -0.1 in 2008. Though it’s fair to say he’s never been an elite defender, it’s also fair to say he’ll probably be a quality defender at either third or second for the next couple of years. But, he’ll be 32, 33, and 34 over the life of this contract, which is to say that his peak years are likely behind him.
If he is able to maintain his status as a 3 win player over the next three seasons, the contract will be well worth it. The value of a win on the market will probably fall between $4 and $5 million – let’s say it’s $4.5 – and so if he was able to continue his recent success he could be worth as much as $40.5 million ($13.5 times three years). But he probably won’t play as much shortstop in L.A., so I’d say that’s a huge stretch. But even if he loses half a win per season starting in ’11 and through ’13, he’d still be worth around $27 million* total. But he’ll have to continue to be healthy for a full season or near it, and he’ll have to maintain his current abilities both offensively and defensively. But if he doesn’t, which isn’t a completely remote possibility, Colletti will have swung and missed.
*(2.5 Wins*$4.5M) + (2.0 Wins*$4.5M) + (1.5 Wins*$4.5M) = $27 million
The contract is not without risk, but which contract truly is? It appears the Dodgers probably got fair value for now, especially considering how thin the shortstop position is this offseason in terms of acquirable talent and that many clubs probably saw him as an option. Perhaps the Giants didn’t want to go too long, i.e. three years, or too rich, i.e. $21 million, but then I guess who can blame them when they were getting 3 wins above replacement for two years for roughly $2 million a year? More than anything, I think that this contract could be particularly interesting to look back on in a couple of years.
Regardless of how well or poorly he does, I can’t help but be happy for him. He’ll look awfully strange in the Dodger blue. And I’ll always love Uribe for the past two seasons and 2010 especially, but won’t blame anyone for giving him a Booooo-Ribe chant when he visits China Basin.
Also worth noting, the Giants will pick up a sandwich pick (between the first and second rounds) because of Uribe's status as a Type B free agent.
Stats provided by Fangraphs
Jeff Kent went to the Dodgers and it was terribly fun to boo him. Jason Schmidt signed with them too, and immediately turned into Mike Hampton. That wasn’t necessarily FUN to watch, though if it were enjoyable to watch ANYONE rot on the DL, he’d have to be playing for the Dodgers. I’d like to say I wish Uribe well, but I’m just not sure I do. Not yet, anyway. No, rather I’m mostly happy that he finally earned some money that was well deserved. This was his third crack at free agency, and the first two shots yielded him A) a minor league deal and B) a one year deal of $3.25M. This 3/$21M pact will set him and his family up for life, and for that I am happy for him.
And when HE is flashing that World Series ring to his teammates in L.A. – Isn’t that a wonderful thought? –this is how I will be remembering him.
Juan Uribe THE LEGEND
It grows and grows…
May 15, 2010
Juan Uribe, in the fourth inning, took Roy Oswalt deep with one on to give the Giants the narrow lead, 2-1. Lincecum would go eight and Wilson would save it. Uribe’s blast was all the offense the Giants needed, and he and Oswalt would meet again.
June 7, 2010
Uribe would finish this ballgame with 4 RBI, the last two coming off of a single in the seventh that scored two and put the Giants up 6-5, and secured the win against the Reds.
August 14, 2010
In August the Giants needed a series win against the Padres, but more than that, they desperately needed to avoid a sweep and one at home no less. They trailed by two in this game into the seventh against the hated Latos – he who perplexingly called the Giants a bunch of mercenaries, meanwhile his shortstop and left fielder were of the same ilk, and who also destroyed the sun roof on our beloved Dave Fleming’s new car; seriously, who fires a baseball into the players parking lot? In the seventh, Panda chased him by clobbering an eye-high fastball into the water. Burrell provided an RBI ground out in the eighth. And finally in the eleventh, Posey doubled, Pablo was intentionally walked, and “Jazz Hands” Uribe singled home Buster in walk off fashion. Mayhem ensued.
September 4, 2010
On a warm, clear night in Los Angeles, the Dodgers were leading against San Francisco by 4 runs from the bottom of the fourth and into the seventh at Chavez Ravine. Then Posey hit a solo shot in the seventh, and Renteria – one of just 3 HR in the regular season – led off with one in the eighth. Dotel relieved Lilly, and was rudely greeted when Burrell went Yahtzee next – this was, of course, a little over a month after Burrell burned Broxton for a game winning two-run blast on July 31. And finally in the ninth, Uribe delivered the crippling blow to the Dodgers with a two-run job off of their fallen closer, Jonathan Broxton, after a Cody Ross hustle, infield single. All was quiet, and the crowd of 48,220 (paid) emptied the bleachers, retired from their orange bucket seats and hurried to their crowded freeways.
October 20, 2010
The Giants went up 2-0 early with Bumgarner on the hill. Then, in the fifth, the Phillies put up a crooked number and it was 4-2 Phillies. But Huff singled home a run in the fifth to bring the Giants within one, and Pablo Sandoval hit a left-center gap double that scored two in the sixth – this was the biggest hit of his young career and his second double of the at bat – and the Giants led again. Lopez’s only blemish of the entire postseason – seriously – came in the eighth when Howard doubled off of him and Romo relented a Werth double that tied it in relieving him. But in the ninth, Manuel went with his starter Oswalt because it was his throw day, and because Roy talked him into it. Huff singled and Posey sent him first to third with an opposite field single following an epic battle, and also after going down 0 and 2. Uribe came up and Oswalt did everything to light Uribe’s hands on fire with fastballs in, because Uribe had a sore wrist. Except, he tried to get tricky and Uribe lofted his low changeup deep enough to left for Huff to score on a sacrifice fly. The home crowd went ballistic, and watching at home, so did I. The Giants were within a win of the Fall Classic.
October 23, 2010
The Giants went down early in game six of the NLCS. It was 2-0 after one, and Jonathan Sanchez was anything but sharp. But Sanchez singled in the top of the third and started a rally that tied the game 2-2. But then, he walked Polanco and hit Utley. Utley and he had history, and Utley somewhat politely tossed the ball towards the mound, which Sanchez took exception to. The benches cleared completely, except for a mild tempered fellow named Jeremy Affeldt, known for tweeting inspiration quotes, and his bullpen coach Mark Gardner. When the dust settled, Affeldt pitched two spectacular innings of no run ball, the first of which got them out of a two on, no out disaster. Then Bumgarner pitched two innings of no run relief. Then Lopez pitched an inning of no run relief. And in Ryan Madson’s second inning of relief, Juan Uribe did something he rarely does. He hit an opposite field, 346 foot home run that barely cleared the wall. I lost my mind. Soon after, Tim Lincecum struck out Jayson Werth before being relieved by Wilson, Ryan Howard looked disgusted while eyeing strike three, and the Giants won the pennant. Uribe was instantly enshrined in Giants lore.
Juan Uribe THE MAN
Now that I’ve covered the legend, I’ll try to throw in my two cents on whether the Dodgers did well on this contract, and therefore if the Giants missed out by not matching the deal.
Over the past two seasons, Juan Uribe has played third, second and shortstop for the Giants, and clubbed 40 combined home runs (16, 24). In those seasons, Fangraphs’ ultimate zone rating (UZR) has liked him at third (2.2, 2.6) and second (3.7, 2.1) in particular, and hasn’t hated him at short (-2.8, 2.1). His .351 weighted on base average (wOBA) was above average at .351 in 2009, and 10 to 20 points below average in 2010 (.322), though plenty good for a shortstop where he largely played. The Dodgers, however, have him slated for second in 2011. To be fair though, it seems likely he’ll spend time at short too when Furcal inevitably goes down to one physical malady or another.
Will Juan live up to the $21 million he’ll make over the next three seasons? Maybe. Offensively, his on base percentage (OBP) in 2009 was just fine at .329 when coupled with his .495 slugging percentage (SLG). But if his OBP continues to erode like it did in 2010 (.310), and should his slugging too (.440 in ‘10), the contract will soon be looked upon suspiciously. His career OBP is just .300 after all, and his slugging just .431. And, his .322 wOBA is far less palatable if he’s playing second base, and it’s not far-fetched to hypothesize it’ll be around there where his career wOBA is just .312.
Defensivley, Uribe has posted positive UZR ratings in 6 of the past 7 seasons, and his only negative mark was just -0.1 in 2008. Though it’s fair to say he’s never been an elite defender, it’s also fair to say he’ll probably be a quality defender at either third or second for the next couple of years. But, he’ll be 32, 33, and 34 over the life of this contract, which is to say that his peak years are likely behind him.
If he is able to maintain his status as a 3 win player over the next three seasons, the contract will be well worth it. The value of a win on the market will probably fall between $4 and $5 million – let’s say it’s $4.5 – and so if he was able to continue his recent success he could be worth as much as $40.5 million ($13.5 times three years). But he probably won’t play as much shortstop in L.A., so I’d say that’s a huge stretch. But even if he loses half a win per season starting in ’11 and through ’13, he’d still be worth around $27 million* total. But he’ll have to continue to be healthy for a full season or near it, and he’ll have to maintain his current abilities both offensively and defensively. But if he doesn’t, which isn’t a completely remote possibility, Colletti will have swung and missed.
*(2.5 Wins*$4.5M) + (2.0 Wins*$4.5M) + (1.5 Wins*$4.5M) = $27 million
The contract is not without risk, but which contract truly is? It appears the Dodgers probably got fair value for now, especially considering how thin the shortstop position is this offseason in terms of acquirable talent and that many clubs probably saw him as an option. Perhaps the Giants didn’t want to go too long, i.e. three years, or too rich, i.e. $21 million, but then I guess who can blame them when they were getting 3 wins above replacement for two years for roughly $2 million a year? More than anything, I think that this contract could be particularly interesting to look back on in a couple of years.
Regardless of how well or poorly he does, I can’t help but be happy for him. He’ll look awfully strange in the Dodger blue. And I’ll always love Uribe for the past two seasons and 2010 especially, but won’t blame anyone for giving him a Booooo-Ribe chant when he visits China Basin.
Also worth noting, the Giants will pick up a sandwich pick (between the first and second rounds) because of Uribe's status as a Type B free agent.
Stats provided by Fangraphs
Friday, November 19, 2010
Who’s on First? Hopefully, Brandon Belt
Let’s first off hope that Brandon Belt is not the next Brandon Wood. Let’s also hope, however reluctantly and painfully, it’s also not Aubrey Huff on first. *Dodges thrown sharp objects*
The 2010 Giants season was the single greatest sporting experience of my life. I grew a beard, and for each game wore the same gray t-shirt, Giants pullover and a pair of Washington State University sweats – Thank you for those, my lovely fiancé Caley! That was once I’d discovered they were OBVIOUSLY the source of all the Brooks Conrad errors, Cody Ross home runs, one run wins, and of Javier Lopez’s lefty destroying magic. I lost my sanity several dozen times and scared the daylights out of my 11 LB dog in the process. It was wonderful. And without Aubrey Huff, the 2010 Giants almost certainly wouldn’t have won the division, eliminated the Braves, won the pennant and taken home the first World Series championship in San Francisco history. With that being said, let’s please set aside the nostalgia for the time being, and determine what is the best course for the now restored to glory franchise.
Allow me to state some facts, using the sandwich technique. Aubrey Huff is a fantastic baseball player, who has had his two best statistical years in two of the past three seasons. He is a wonderful clubhouse presence to boot. So was Ken Griffey Jr. in 2009 and 2010. Aubrey Huff will be 34 years in old 32 days. Players, on average, peak at ages 27 to 32. Despite his lauded defense in 2010 and +9.7 UZR at first base, his career first base UZR is -3.0, his career outfield UZR -29.0. Experts agree it takes two to three seasons to get a representative and therefore ultimately accurate sample of fielding to derive a players true defensive ability.
In the first half, Aubrey Huff hit 17 home runs, walked 43 times and struck out 40 times, hit .295, and posted an on-base percentage (OBP), slugging percentage (SLG), and on-base plus slugging percentage (OPS) of .384/.544/.929. He did this with a .287 batting average on balls in play (BABiP). In the second half, he hit 9 home runs, walked 40 times and struck out 51, hit .284 and had a respectable OBP/SLG/OPS – This is his “slash” line – of .385/.462/.847. He did this with a somewhat inflated BABiP of .317, when his career mark is .293.
Aubrey Huff will likely be seeking a two to three year offer of around $8 to $10 million annually. Given his brilliant 2010 season, he 1) deserves it and 2) will likely get it. Moreover, this is not LIKELY, but rather IS, the final time in his career he will have a chance to cash in on a decent contract. I like Huff quite a lot; I will always have a special place in my heart for his 2010 production, leadership, and unforgettable red rally thong, all of which propelled the Giants to achieve something that I never dreamed of, certainly not so soon. I’m on par with the biggest and most loyal Giants fan you’re likely to ever run into, and now that I’ve tasted victory I want more. Would another championship feel THIS good? I can’t say; I’ll posit probably not. However, I want to find out.
More facts: The Giants have a first baseman in their minor league system that they drafted in the fifth round of the 2009 draft. His name is Brandon Belt. He is 6’5” and around 200 pounds. He was a high profile pitcher for most of his college career, but the Giants signed him as a hitter, saying: “…he’s just learning to hit…” and “…all the upside is in front of this guy (Doug Mapson to Baseball Beginnings, 8/31/2009).” He would also say that the Giants have “…instructors we pay a lot of money in order to help these young hitters…” Instruct him, they did.
Belt confirmed to Project Prospect on Nov 7, 2010, that “…the [Giants] organization, they opened me up, they raised my hands, and they got me up out of the crouch just a little bit just so I could stay stacked in my upper body. And so far it’s worked out pretty well for me.” I’d say so. He also confirmed the changes helped him improve his bat speed and “…getting’ [his] hips through the ball.” It’s also clearly helped him shorten his swing and cover up the hole on the inside of his swing. He will still have a hole, every hitter does – Yes, even Pujols – but the idea is to shrink the hole and make it such that most if not all pitchers cannot consistently make pitches to that hole.
With his freshly redesigned swing, Belt went ballistic. He had 333 plate appearances in A-Advanced San Jose and hit 10 home runs, stole 18 bases – Proving his athleticism and baseball acumen – hit .383 and had a slash-line of .455/.620/1.121 for an impossible weighted on-base average (wOBA) of .489. He then graduated to AA Richmond, a league in which hitters routinely struggle, including Giants prospects, and in 201 plate appearances hit 9 home runs, hit .337, and had a slash line of .413/.623/1.036 for a spectacular .447 wOBA. Finally, he moved on to AAA Fresno for just 61 plate appearances. He managed 4 home runs but only hit .229 – He was battered with an unlucky .241 BABiP – in a very small sample. Luckily, he walked 13 times and had a triple slash line of .393/.563/.956 for a still quite great wOBA of .419. His final tally in his first professional season, while playing excellent defense and discovering a new swing: 23 home runs, 10 triples, 43 doubles, 22 stolen bases, 93 walks to just 99 strikeouts, a .352 average and a slash line of .455/.620/1.075. Not bad in a years work. But wait…
The Giants sent Belt to the Arizona Fall League (AFL) for further seasoning – Also, likely to see if he might be ready for opening day. The league is typically composed of some of the very best prospects in baseball, and this year is no exception, including Dustin Ackley and Bryce Harper. Belt jumped right in and through the end of the regular season and 84 at bats has hit .372 with 1 home run, 8 doubles, and 5 triples for a slash line of .427/.616/1.043, slashing line drives through the warm air in the fall desert. He will be playing in the AFL championship game this coming Saturday.
The consensus among scouts is that his season was no fluke at all:
A scout told Jayson Stark, on Belt: “You can have [Bryce] Harper. Give me that kid. He’s got a chance to be Larry Walker. Athletic. Powerful, Good defender. And he hits the ball line-to-line with thunder.”
Jason Grey is a scout for ESPN, and said this about Belt: “Having… [seen Belt] for the first couple of weeks of the AFL. There’s no doubt in my mind Belt is legit and a potential middle–of-the-order threat in a big league lineup capable of hitting for average and power.” He went on to say “I’ve liked Belt’s Approach, the quality of his at-bats, his ability to generate power without over swinging and his ability to go to the opposite field with some juice. He’s played good defense at first base and has showed good athleticism, enough that I’ve changed my mind to think he might not look out of place should the Giants choose to play him in left field, where he dabbled a little bit in the minors this year.”
Keith Law – ESPN.com and lead analyst for Scouts Inc. – has repeatedly said: “Belt is a potential star.”
All of the praise for Belt has him currently pegged as the number two first base prospect in the minors, behind only Eric Hosmer*.
*Hosmer comes from the farm system of the Kansas City Royals, a franchise that is the American League’s version of the Pirates, but also a franchise that’s farm system is busting at the seams with tremendous prospects. Hosmer was taken third overall in 2008, two ahead of Posey. Kevin Goldstein – Scout and Player Development expert for Baseball Prospectus – said: “The more I write up these Royals prospects, the harder a time I have figuring out a way they can screw this up.” In 2010 as a 20 year old in A Advanced and AA – He was young in BOTH leagues – he hit 20 home runs, 43 doubles, 9 triples, walked 59 times to just 66 strikeouts, hit .338 and put up a triple slash line of .406/.571/.977. It may be needless to say, but given his age, where he was drafted and the numbers he’s put up, it’s not an insult Belt is penciled in behind him.
My gut tells me that the Giants ought to install Belt at first base, his natural position, and use the money they saved on not signing Huff to a multi-year deal on a solid, two-way corner outfielder. I’ve looked at the Giants’ roster, and by resigning Huff and Uribe they won’t be getting any younger. Also, having looked at the roster, it’s easy to draw the conclusion that the Giants’ payroll is going to near or exceed $100 million with contract commitments and arbitration raises – Which was their approximate payroll in 2010 – before they sign a single free agent and fill their corner outfield, first base and shortstop vacancies.
Given their need for a shortstop – There’s nothing ready on the farm – as well as the scarcity of a decent shortstop option in this years crop of free agents, I think Uribe is the obvious of the two to resign. Otherwise, the Giants should engineer a trade for a shortstop, which actually might be their best option. If they take this route, they can spend some what little money they have on a left fielder and install Belt at first for league minimum. This is the most cost-effective way for the Giants to maximize their production within the constraints of their payroll, and I just don’t see any scenario in which signing Huff to a multi-year deal helps them in the long run. Again, as painful as that is to say and for any Giants fan to hear (or read).
Stats provided by Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference
The 2010 Giants season was the single greatest sporting experience of my life. I grew a beard, and for each game wore the same gray t-shirt, Giants pullover and a pair of Washington State University sweats – Thank you for those, my lovely fiancé Caley! That was once I’d discovered they were OBVIOUSLY the source of all the Brooks Conrad errors, Cody Ross home runs, one run wins, and of Javier Lopez’s lefty destroying magic. I lost my sanity several dozen times and scared the daylights out of my 11 LB dog in the process. It was wonderful. And without Aubrey Huff, the 2010 Giants almost certainly wouldn’t have won the division, eliminated the Braves, won the pennant and taken home the first World Series championship in San Francisco history. With that being said, let’s please set aside the nostalgia for the time being, and determine what is the best course for the now restored to glory franchise.
Allow me to state some facts, using the sandwich technique. Aubrey Huff is a fantastic baseball player, who has had his two best statistical years in two of the past three seasons. He is a wonderful clubhouse presence to boot. So was Ken Griffey Jr. in 2009 and 2010. Aubrey Huff will be 34 years in old 32 days. Players, on average, peak at ages 27 to 32. Despite his lauded defense in 2010 and +9.7 UZR at first base, his career first base UZR is -3.0, his career outfield UZR -29.0. Experts agree it takes two to three seasons to get a representative and therefore ultimately accurate sample of fielding to derive a players true defensive ability.
In the first half, Aubrey Huff hit 17 home runs, walked 43 times and struck out 40 times, hit .295, and posted an on-base percentage (OBP), slugging percentage (SLG), and on-base plus slugging percentage (OPS) of .384/.544/.929. He did this with a .287 batting average on balls in play (BABiP). In the second half, he hit 9 home runs, walked 40 times and struck out 51, hit .284 and had a respectable OBP/SLG/OPS – This is his “slash” line – of .385/.462/.847. He did this with a somewhat inflated BABiP of .317, when his career mark is .293.
Aubrey Huff will likely be seeking a two to three year offer of around $8 to $10 million annually. Given his brilliant 2010 season, he 1) deserves it and 2) will likely get it. Moreover, this is not LIKELY, but rather IS, the final time in his career he will have a chance to cash in on a decent contract. I like Huff quite a lot; I will always have a special place in my heart for his 2010 production, leadership, and unforgettable red rally thong, all of which propelled the Giants to achieve something that I never dreamed of, certainly not so soon. I’m on par with the biggest and most loyal Giants fan you’re likely to ever run into, and now that I’ve tasted victory I want more. Would another championship feel THIS good? I can’t say; I’ll posit probably not. However, I want to find out.
More facts: The Giants have a first baseman in their minor league system that they drafted in the fifth round of the 2009 draft. His name is Brandon Belt. He is 6’5” and around 200 pounds. He was a high profile pitcher for most of his college career, but the Giants signed him as a hitter, saying: “…he’s just learning to hit…” and “…all the upside is in front of this guy (Doug Mapson to Baseball Beginnings, 8/31/2009).” He would also say that the Giants have “…instructors we pay a lot of money in order to help these young hitters…” Instruct him, they did.
Belt confirmed to Project Prospect on Nov 7, 2010, that “…the [Giants] organization, they opened me up, they raised my hands, and they got me up out of the crouch just a little bit just so I could stay stacked in my upper body. And so far it’s worked out pretty well for me.” I’d say so. He also confirmed the changes helped him improve his bat speed and “…getting’ [his] hips through the ball.” It’s also clearly helped him shorten his swing and cover up the hole on the inside of his swing. He will still have a hole, every hitter does – Yes, even Pujols – but the idea is to shrink the hole and make it such that most if not all pitchers cannot consistently make pitches to that hole.
With his freshly redesigned swing, Belt went ballistic. He had 333 plate appearances in A-Advanced San Jose and hit 10 home runs, stole 18 bases – Proving his athleticism and baseball acumen – hit .383 and had a slash-line of .455/.620/1.121 for an impossible weighted on-base average (wOBA) of .489. He then graduated to AA Richmond, a league in which hitters routinely struggle, including Giants prospects, and in 201 plate appearances hit 9 home runs, hit .337, and had a slash line of .413/.623/1.036 for a spectacular .447 wOBA. Finally, he moved on to AAA Fresno for just 61 plate appearances. He managed 4 home runs but only hit .229 – He was battered with an unlucky .241 BABiP – in a very small sample. Luckily, he walked 13 times and had a triple slash line of .393/.563/.956 for a still quite great wOBA of .419. His final tally in his first professional season, while playing excellent defense and discovering a new swing: 23 home runs, 10 triples, 43 doubles, 22 stolen bases, 93 walks to just 99 strikeouts, a .352 average and a slash line of .455/.620/1.075. Not bad in a years work. But wait…
The Giants sent Belt to the Arizona Fall League (AFL) for further seasoning – Also, likely to see if he might be ready for opening day. The league is typically composed of some of the very best prospects in baseball, and this year is no exception, including Dustin Ackley and Bryce Harper. Belt jumped right in and through the end of the regular season and 84 at bats has hit .372 with 1 home run, 8 doubles, and 5 triples for a slash line of .427/.616/1.043, slashing line drives through the warm air in the fall desert. He will be playing in the AFL championship game this coming Saturday.
The consensus among scouts is that his season was no fluke at all:
A scout told Jayson Stark, on Belt: “You can have [Bryce] Harper. Give me that kid. He’s got a chance to be Larry Walker. Athletic. Powerful, Good defender. And he hits the ball line-to-line with thunder.”
Jason Grey is a scout for ESPN, and said this about Belt: “Having… [seen Belt] for the first couple of weeks of the AFL. There’s no doubt in my mind Belt is legit and a potential middle–of-the-order threat in a big league lineup capable of hitting for average and power.” He went on to say “I’ve liked Belt’s Approach, the quality of his at-bats, his ability to generate power without over swinging and his ability to go to the opposite field with some juice. He’s played good defense at first base and has showed good athleticism, enough that I’ve changed my mind to think he might not look out of place should the Giants choose to play him in left field, where he dabbled a little bit in the minors this year.”
Keith Law – ESPN.com and lead analyst for Scouts Inc. – has repeatedly said: “Belt is a potential star.”
All of the praise for Belt has him currently pegged as the number two first base prospect in the minors, behind only Eric Hosmer*.
*Hosmer comes from the farm system of the Kansas City Royals, a franchise that is the American League’s version of the Pirates, but also a franchise that’s farm system is busting at the seams with tremendous prospects. Hosmer was taken third overall in 2008, two ahead of Posey. Kevin Goldstein – Scout and Player Development expert for Baseball Prospectus – said: “The more I write up these Royals prospects, the harder a time I have figuring out a way they can screw this up.” In 2010 as a 20 year old in A Advanced and AA – He was young in BOTH leagues – he hit 20 home runs, 43 doubles, 9 triples, walked 59 times to just 66 strikeouts, hit .338 and put up a triple slash line of .406/.571/.977. It may be needless to say, but given his age, where he was drafted and the numbers he’s put up, it’s not an insult Belt is penciled in behind him.
My gut tells me that the Giants ought to install Belt at first base, his natural position, and use the money they saved on not signing Huff to a multi-year deal on a solid, two-way corner outfielder. I’ve looked at the Giants’ roster, and by resigning Huff and Uribe they won’t be getting any younger. Also, having looked at the roster, it’s easy to draw the conclusion that the Giants’ payroll is going to near or exceed $100 million with contract commitments and arbitration raises – Which was their approximate payroll in 2010 – before they sign a single free agent and fill their corner outfield, first base and shortstop vacancies.
Given their need for a shortstop – There’s nothing ready on the farm – as well as the scarcity of a decent shortstop option in this years crop of free agents, I think Uribe is the obvious of the two to resign. Otherwise, the Giants should engineer a trade for a shortstop, which actually might be their best option. If they take this route, they can spend some what little money they have on a left fielder and install Belt at first for league minimum. This is the most cost-effective way for the Giants to maximize their production within the constraints of their payroll, and I just don’t see any scenario in which signing Huff to a multi-year deal helps them in the long run. Again, as painful as that is to say and for any Giants fan to hear (or read).
Stats provided by Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference
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