Ryan Theriot > Bengie Molina? Thank wOBA!

One of the stats that has actually made quite a dent in traditional baseball statistics is OPS (on-base % plus slugging %). OPS is quite useful but, as it turns out, it also leaves a lot to be desired. The main reason for that is the statistic gives equal weights to on-base percentage and slugging percentage when it shouldn’t, and furthermore, both of these statistics themselves are not without their flaws. While OBP does tell you the rate at which a player reaches base, it fails to describe how far the player reached. SLG tells you how many bases a player gained, but unfortunately, it fails to see a walk, hit by pitch, etc as a positive outcome. Also, OBP is actually more valuable than SLG. But the buck doesn’t just stop there. Slugging assumes that each base is worth 1.000, so a single is 1.000, a double 2.000 and so forth which is highly inaccurate. Well, a bunch of smart people (Tom Tango and friends) actually analyzed the true “worth” of each of these outcomes and as it turns out it’s just not that simple. One thing we know for sure is that the worst thing a hitter can do is make an out. After running all of the data, and assuming that an out is worth 0, the actual run values are as follows:


HR =1.70, 3B = 1.37, 2B = 1.08, 1B = 0.77, NIBB = 0.62

So the creator of the formula used these values and applied them to each player. When they did it with a league average player and divided by plate appearances, they got around .300.  Pretty nice. But, they realized if they simply multiplied by 15% they got the league average OBP…even better. The statistic is now scaled to OBP so league average is somewhere between .330 and .340 (like OBP). The new values and statistic is now:

(0.72xNIBB + 0.75xHBP + 0.90x1B + 0.92xRBOE + 1.24x2B + 1.56x3B + 1.95xHR) / PA

*NIBB = Non-Intentional Walk, HBP = Hit by Pitch, 1B = Single, RBOE = Reached base on error, 2B = double, 3B = triple, HR = Homerun and PA = Plate Appearance

Some might be wondering, why is someone rewarded for reached base on error? Well, because it’s actually possible to create errors, kind of. For example, if Bengie Molina hits the ball on the ground anywhere it’s an automatic out if the fielder can get to it. On the other hand, if Chone Figgins hits the ball directly at the short stop and he bobbles it, Figgins may reach on an error. His batting average isn’t rewarded for this in anyway but he has helped his team and in a way Molina never could hope to. And as it turns out, this outcome is actually worth more than a single. Go figure.

Continuing my bashing of Bengie Molina, allow me to show you how his terrible OBP can be quite detrimental. Bengie Molina posted a .727 OPS in 2009, which isn’t very good. Ryan Theriot managed to post an even lower OPS of .712 in 2009. He must be the inferior offensive player. Wrong. Molina’s wOBA is actually .308 to Theriot’s .318. Though Theriot slugged 73 points less than Molina, his OBP was 58 points higher, and, wOBA shows us that his 58 OBP points to Molina’s 73 slugging points were actually worth an additional 10 points in wOBA. This is just a quick example and a good way to illustrate just how much Molina’s extraordinary out making skills truly do hurt his team, offensively of course.

Why am I telling you this? Well, if you like to read my posts here at PaapFly, you better get used to wOBA because I’ll probably start implementing it into them more often. My goal is to not only expand my knowledge of sabermetrics and baseball statistical analysis, but also each of yours. Lastly, I don’t dislike Molina nearly as much as it may seem. He’s actually a somewhat useful player in that he’s neither a terrible hitting catcher nor a terrible defensive catcher. He’s likeable, he’s durable and he plays hard. What’s not to like? Well, Molina simply represents the wrong direction that Brian Sabean has been pointing the Giants’ franchise and, because of this, Molina gets a large portion of my criticism. Sorry, Bengie.

Cheers,

Rory

If you want to read more on wOBA, check this and this out.

Read this...

...Two of my favorites...Rob Neyer comments on Dave Cameron's FanGraphs post on how *gasp* older players are actually being undervalued now. 

Another good one by Neyer on the (on-base specialist) Molina signing.  He somewhat reiterates my sentiment, the signing wasn't great because, though Molina is well worth $4.5 mil, the Giants have limited funds and a player capable of replacing him for $4 mil less.

I may do a post later on the Giants' prospects and where they've graded out on multiple lists (I'd like to wait for Baseball America's list).  Here is MLB.com's (John Mayo) Top 50 Prospects list.  Here is Keith Law's Top 100.  

Jason Stark wrote about this statement from the MLBPA, Florida Marlins and Major League Baseball.  Jason posit's here that this statement could be the beginnings of the biggest battle during the next Collective Bargaining Agreement.  Neyer also chimed in on this a while back.

I like Stark's idea to have an award for the leagues best relief pitcher.  It'll give everyone more to discuss during award season along with the MVP and Cy Young Awards.  Neyer agreed with Stark, too.

Catching up

In the same day that Tim Lincecum appeared in a Vancouver, Washington courtroom to put an end to his October misdemeanor charges (which were reduced to a civil infraction and $513 fine) and asked for $13 M in salary arbitration (the Giants are hoping to pay a figure of $8 M); the Giants did the unthinkable and resigned their starting catcher of the past 3 seasons (and cleanup hitter of the last 2) for one year and $4.5 mil. It appears they will be catching up with Molina a lot sooner than originally thought.

Brian Sabean believed way back in October that Molina would leave the city by the bay for a more lucrative offer (he was fairly hotly coveted by the other oft criticized GM by the saber community, Omar Minaya (Mets)). However, Molina was reported to of declined their latest offer in the last 24 hours. I don’t think the details are yet known, but it seems that Molina and the Mets never could quite agree on dollars are probably more so guaranteed years. Molina was asking for somewhere between 2-3 years and the Mets only willing to offer 1-2.

Surprisingly, after I looked at the numbers, he was worth more than I thought in 2008 and 2009. He was paid about $6.5 mil a season but was worth (according to fangraphs) $13.3 mil in 2008 and $8.1 mil in 2009. Of course, players are rarely paid what they are actually worth. For example, Lincecum was worth $33 mil in 2008 and $37 mil in 2009. Some players are worth negative values if they are seen to be below “replacement level.”
 
There currently are no reliable defensive metrics for catchers (UZR, etc). FanGraphs doesn’t even bother listing defensive value for catchers. So, when compiling his value he is considered equal amongst his peers defensively. This probably isn’t the case. Though he did not win the 2009 AL Gold Glove, most advanced scouts believed Gerald Laird to be the best defensive catcher in the AL. Thus his true value would probably exceed that listed by FanGraphs. In terms of Molina, he no longer is particularly good at throwing out runners (though pitchers like Lincecum don’t do him any favors) and at times looks more than a little lazy. He simply doesn’t block the ball well anymore. Furthermore, any player at a skill position (C, SS, 2B, 3B, CF in this order) gets additional value points for simply playing that position. For C (12.5 runs) and SS (7.5 runs), that extra value is pretty substantial (especially when compared to 1B (-12.5 runs) and DH (-17.5 runs) which both get negative values. And because we have no reliable defensive statistic for the C position, Molina is awarded the full 12.5 runs. For other positions, their total value is either diminished or added to depending on their UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating). For example, Adrian Belte’s total value is his offensive value, the 2.5 runs for playing third base and his UZR. Now, one could argue that were Molina an above average defensive catcher his full value is not properly being displayed by FanGraphs. But I don’t know anyone that would attempt to argue that. On the plus side I will say that he’s been quite durable for the Giants.

All in all, Molina is a perfectly fine hitting catcher, especially because most catchers are pretty terrible hitters. My problems are 1) I believe he is at least a lazy catcher 2) I think Bochy might be tempted to continue to hit him cleanup 3) He’s sensitive and sure to complain and gripe if Posey is brought up and 4) the Giants have Buster Posey. Posey who is going to cost $400 K in 2010. I have in the past and will continue to argue that Posey should be able to at least replace Molina statistically if not exceed his contributions.

I do believe this is a clear misallocation of resources. The Giants clearly have a finite amount of money to upgrade their team and I don’t think $4.5 mil towards a catcher, when the Giants already have a catcher capable of equaling his production or exceeding it at a cost of $400k, is money well spent.

Anyway… the Giants clearly hold different evaluations for players than I (or most the rest of baseball) and so it shouldn’t be seen as a surprise. Plus, I’m sure Bochy and Sabean will argue this gives them a good mentor for Posey. Catcher is quite a tricky position (and one which Bochy himself played) and so they probably do have some point. But I am sure to some degree they are overplaying the importance of having a veteran backstop to mentor Posey and anchor the pitching staff. Furthermore, had Posey been given more of an opportunity to settle in offensively (via pinch hitting) and as a catcher (after the Giants were eliminated) down the stretch in 2009 they’d probably have a much better idea of what they could expect in 2010.

On the upside, they’ve reduced their risk to pretty much 0% at the catcher position which can’t be all horrible with all the question marks (see my previous post) they currently have on the roster. What’s more? Sabean will probably take comfort when the bay area writers uniformly praise the Giants for this move.