Pablo Sandoval's hot start

Pablo Sandoval is mashing this April, and he's not yet 25:

Overall, he’s hitting .328 with a .400 OBP and slugging .603. That’s good for a .423 wOBA. And, unlike last April, he doesn’t have an outrageous BABiP. Which isn’t to say it’s not well above average, it is at .341. But when you consider it was .382 last April and certainly not sustainable, and that his career BABiP is .325, his .341 mark so far this season seems more reasonable and less of a red flag.

What’s also interesting to me, though, is that he’s striking out roughly twice as often. His 20.7 strikeout rate is roughly double what he’s done in his career. But just maybe, that’s a good thing. Why, you might ask? Because he’s seeing more pitches so far. In 2008 when he came up, he saw 3.10 pitches per plate appearance, which is wholly awful. With a mark 3.44 in 2009 he improved it quite a bit, but it was still basically terrible. And he duplicated that with a 3.43 mark last season. But thus far in 2011 it’s been 3.80, and that’s sort of something to behold with the Panda. Anything approaching four pitchers per at bat seems like miraculous progress.

Pablo Sandoval is lighter, but is he better?

Jeff Sullivan at SB Nation recently pointed out that this March isn’t the only March where Pablo Sandoval has lost a bunch of weight.

First off, while many claimed Sandoval had leaned out some last spring training, our eyes were telling us something different entirely. Perhaps, instead of admitting then and there that “Camp Panda” was a failure, the Giants figured they could get a handle on him once again considering they’d have their hands on him (figuratively speaking, folks) all day, every day… or most of it anyway.

But here’s the portion I’m interested in:

It’s important, though, to remain reasonable. Sandoval may bounce back in a big way at the plate. He may improve in the field, too. Being in better shape can’t possibly hurt him. But the last time he lost a lot of weight he went on to struggle, and that’s something people have to keep in mind. That Pablo Sandoval’s eating wheat bread now doesn’t automatically mean his numbers are going to go up, because while his weight was probably an issue, it was never his biggest problem. Sandoval’s biggest problem has always been that he’s way too aggressive, and unless he’s suddenly able to deduce more proficiently what’s a ball and what’s a strike, he’s unlikely to re-establish himself as a star.

I can sympathize where Jeff is going, but I don’t necessarily agree. No, I can’t because I don’t think Sandoval’s ability to re-emerge as a young star in the National League weighs on his plate discipline any more than Carlos Gonzalez’s plate discipline (or complete lack there of) weighs on his ability to remain one.

Lincecum not complacent

There should be quite a few exciting storylines in Giants camp this spring and that’s leaving aside the most obvious one: it’s their first as defending champs (as San Francisco Giants). One of the most exciting among them will be the progress of a promising young first baseman named Brandon Belt. I say first baseman knowing that his road to the big leagues might be left field, though if I had my way, given the plus first baseman that he is, I might stick him at first and push Aubrey Huff to left. If you have not heard of Belt yet… where have you been?

Another story that’s likely to get plenty of play is that of the husky third baseman, Pablo Sandoval. Panda has been snapping pictures of himself all winter and showing off his slimmer figure; this is wonderful news for Giants fans to be sure. Whether or not that translates into on-field results remains to be seen. My gut feeling is that he is going to have a big year and will once again be a serviceable third baseman defensively. I won’t say a .330 average and near .400 weight on-base average (wOBA) is necessarily in the cards, but I think it’s a safe bet he recaptures some of that promise he catapulted onto the seen with in 2008 and 2009.

After the jump, here’s my favorite piece of info from camp so far, via Extra Baggs:

The most important note of the Giants' offseason?

The San Francisco Giants' Fanfest was held yesterday, and it looked an awful lot like the 3 month reunion of the World Series parade. So soon? I guess so. The traffic that the event ultimately saw has the Giants considering making this a two day event next season, whether or not they defend their World Series title.

But the most interesting piece of information to come out over the weekend was perhaps something that came out the day before, Friday's Media Day. In fact, it may (or may not be) the most important piece of information to come out regarding the Giants this offseason: in addition to dedicating this offseason to improving his physical condition -- an endeavor that it at least appears he has been quite successful in --Pablo Sandoval claims he has worked some with one Barry Bonds to improve his plate discipline.

In that sentence, the word "some" becomes the key. To what extent Pablo has sought guidance from Bonds is unknown. What's more, it's not all that clear how much of ones plate discipline (or complete lack there of) can be improved by the tutoring of another, even if the teacher happens to be the Greek God of plate discipline.

Pablo Sandoval: '10 just a sophomore slump?

The Giants remarkably won the World Series in 2010 despite the horrific season of their young star, Pablo "Panda" Sandoval. Panda finished off his stellar 2009 season with a mammoth, 448-foot, slightly opposite-field blast at spacey Petco Park in San Diego. It seemed to put an exclamation point on his arrival as one of the games future stars, to solidify his spot among Hanley Ramirez and Evan Longoria. Unfortunatley, despite the echoing success of the Giants' season, Pablo's was one to forget.

No, Pablo didn't win Rookie of the Year honors in 2009, but that's only because he narrowly eclipsed the cutoff in his 2008 cup of coffee. He also didn't even make the All-star team, but that was only thanks to a snub by Charlie Manuel. Come to think of it, that opposite-field double in the NLCS must have felt oh-so-good.

Despite the success, the Giants sent him off to the widely covered "Camp Panda" after the 2009 season. The goal: learn to eat better, work out, and maintain a healthy playing weight to sustain him through 162 games - the number he's striving to play, and not a game less. It seemed to be going well, and the reports were that he'd lost approximately 15-20 pounds. But after his camp, he headed to Venezuela for Winter Ball and returned huskier than at his departure. But, let's face it, he was hugely successful in 2009 despite not having the prototypical, lean and powerful body that many ballplayers have. Did it really matter?

In March and April of 2010, he was the same old Pablo. He hit .368 with an 1.008 OPS, and people began to wonder if he could not only win a batting title, which seemed obvious after coming in second in 2009, but also take MVP honors. AT&T Park was littered with Panda hats, the HD screens blinding with "Pandamonium" signs. He wasn't yet a star on a national stage, but that day was rapidly approaching while in San Francisco it had long ago arrived. He was an unstoppable force, a meteor with unlimited propellant. Then May arrived.

Pablo finished May with a .617 OPS. But that was likely just a blip on the radar, an anomaly. Then June came. He finished June with a .645 OPS. Then July came. He finished July with a .597 OPS. In August he rebounded to post a .907 OPS but again plummeted in September and October with a dreadful, career-worst month while hitting to a .587 OPS. Soon after, he was benched in the playoffs for a combination of shoddy defense and offensive ineptitude. His fate as either a flash in the pan or sophomore slumper was sealed. Let's hope it was the latter.

So what happened? On the one hand, Brian Sabean was quick to point out that it was wrong to market Sandoval the way they had. Perhaps he was right. Sandoval was coming off of an outstanding season, he seemed to have all of the baseball ability a kid growing up in Venezuela could dream for. But he was also just 23, a pup. Also, he was going through a divorce. I won't venture a guess on exactly how that might affect an athlete, but I'll submit it probably doesn't help much. For ordinary people, working desk jobs and not under the bright lights of stardom and celebrity, the fracturing of a husband and wife can be devastating. Draw your own conclusions. And then there was the weight.

In aggregate, it simply became too much. But there's hope. With the arrival of catching prodigy, Buster Posey, as well as the early success of Madison Bumgarner and the likely promotion of Brandon Belt, Pablo can likely sit back, relax, and let it all happen naturally. Instead of being expected to be the only difference-maker in an otherwise mediocre lineup, as was pretty much the expectation in early 2010, he can work his way back to being a middle-of-the-order run producer in 2011. And here is a sample of other ballplayers who have slumped in season two, only to rebound mightily.

Here is what Geovany Soto did in his first three full seasons:



Another example, this from Carlton Fisk:



And finally, we have Willie Mays and his sophomore slump, also known as the Korean War:



Let's pay particular attention to Soto and Fisk, both catchers as Sandoval once was, because Mays' sophomore season was rough, but also a small sample and most notably, interrupted by the war. Both Soto and Fisk had outstanding rookie seasons, taking home Rookie of the Year honors, only to tumble in their sophomore seasons. Then, in year three, they returned to their ways of being outstanding players.

Let's take a look at what Sandoval has done so far:



Will his year three look like that of Fisk and Soto? I can't really say. But it might. Bill James projects him to post a weighted on base average (wOBA) of .372, well above league average and much closer to the .396 he had in 2009 and far away and above the .314 of his 2010 season.

Pablo isn't going to suddenly start walking 10% of the time, so if you're hoping for such an event, don't hold your breath. His success literally weighs on his ability to put the ball in play often, spraying the field with hard contact. He's shown an ability to do that. In 2008, he posted a .384 average on balls in play (BABiP) in High-A ball. He then posted a .345 in AA, and finally a .356 over 154 plate appeances in San Francisco. In 2009, he continued to do that and finished with a .350 BABiP. But in 2009, his season ended with just a .291 BABiP. If he can get back to something near .350, all will fall back into place.

A lot is riding on Pablo. If he doesn't rebound in 2011, the Giants' left side of the infield could be a disaster. Miguel Tejada is a comparable player to Juan Uribe, but he's getting extremely old for the position and his range will be limited. And Pablo was well below average at the hot corner in 2010, so in order for the left side to be just adequate, he'll need to improve his defensive range as well. Among the many things to keep an eye on in the coming season -- Can Huff continue to be an impact player? Will Lincecum return to Cy Young form? Can Madison Bumgarner be an impact starter? -- this will perhaps be the most important. The Red Sox signed Carl Crawford, the Nationals Jayson Werth. But if Sandoval returns to form, he'll have been the best acquisition of all. He's still owed roughly league minimum, and no draft pick was forfeited for his services. And this is especially important considering the deep draft pool scouts expect this June.

Got Runs?

Another game peeled off the schedule, another day off the calendar, one more torturous game, but another win nonetheless. The Giants are still very nicely positioned, but desperately need to find a way to better support the pitching staff. The bullpen and starting five have frankly pitched brilliantly since being challenged by Bochy to do so. Over the past five contests, the pitching staff has given up 4 total runs. Despite this absurd display of run prevention, they’ve only pulled out three wins in those ballgames and two of them came in ‘just barely’ fashion. With their catalyst sidelined, this puts pressure on the middle of their lineup to produce. The performance of Huff, Posey, Burrell and Uribe over the final fifteen games will be critical, and a non-horrible Pablo Sandoval – when he’s been horrible recently – would help a lot. Jose Guillen has a bulging disc in his neck and one can only hope this keeps him out of the lineup. I’ll be crossing my fingers. It’s times like these when teams need someone to step up in a major way. The Giants could use a lava hot, Tulowitzki-esque fifteen games out of someone, anyone.

I apologize to any Cardinals or Reds fans who might be reading (though this seems unlikely) as I’m dropping them off my tracking list. The Cardinals are dead in the water and the Reds have all but officially clinched. Despite the Cards’ current status, I hope they get white hot, specifically in the next four games versus San Diego. Here’s where they stand:

The +/- figures are OARD, i.e. Opponents Average Run Differential.
Phillies: +15, 6 Home and 9 Away – Pulling away in the East after sweeping the Fish.
Padres: +26, 7 Home and 10 Away – Righted the ship a bit by taking 2 of 3 at Coors.
Braves: +40, 6 Home and 9 Away – Just dropped 2 of 3 to the Nationals, fading on Cox?
Giants: -21, 10 Home and 6 Away – 1-1 in the series versus the Dodgers, need a win tonight.
Rockies: +9, 6 Home and 10 Away – Just dropped 2 of 3 to the Padres to hurt their chances.

The five teams still truly in the hunt for the remaining three spots in the Dance are the Phill’s, Friars, Braves, Giants and Rockies. The Phillies definitely seem to be pulling away but you never know when you consider they must face the Braves six more times. The best possible scenario for the Giants to improve their playoff chances is for the Phillies to win five of six in those games and really stamp on the Braves playoff chances. The Padres were reeling there for a while but you have to respect their ability to go into Coors and take 2 of 3 from the Rockies, who are really tough at home. The Rockies have four more away games than home games, and that bodes well for the Padres and Giants because they’ve not been very good on the road. The biggest problem, however, is that bay Area native Troy Tulowitzki has gone bonkers with 11 dingers in 14 games. The Giants have by far the most favorable schedule of the remaining teams vying for the final three spots, with 4 more home games than away games, and also being the only team among the five whose remaining competition has an average run differential that is negative. They’ve pulled within half a game in not only the West but also the Wild Card as of this morning, and they hold the key to their own destiny. One of either jubilation or heartbreak is assured in the next eighteen days.

UPDATE: The Giants got some runs to go with that stellar pitching, and are now in first place.  Booya.

Pablo’s Lack of Lady Luck

Joe Posnanski has now chimed in on this Carlos Gonzalez subject. I recently wrote about Gonzalez, and why I didn’t see him as a legitimate MVP choice. Well, after his torrid two weeks I certainly see him as more legitimate than before, but I’m still not sold. So often when I’m checking up on something, I have another thought – an idea that jogs my memory – and end up heading down the rabbit hole. Well it happened again today and I’ll get into that soon enough.

People talk a lot about how offensive Coors Field is because the ball jumps, etc. Well, someone that commented on Joe’s blog mentioned something that I think hit the nail on the head. It has a lot to do with how the ball behaves in Coors Field, not after it’s been put into play*, but rather when it leaves the pitchers hand. Breaking pitches just don’t have the same bite and depth there that they do in other parks. This 1) makes it easier to hit them at Coors 2) and somewhat of a shock to Rockies hitters when they see a “real” breaking pitch on the road. I think this phenomenon should be explored, but I’m not sure I’m the right person to do it. Pitch F/X would probably be useful here.

*Let’s not forget how important it is how the ball behaves when put into play, either. Coors has an enormous outfield which outrageously inflates BABIP, and therefore, AVG, SLG and OBP as well. And don’t forget the obvious either, that balls go OVER the fence more often too.

Here’s how Gonzalez sits now, after a huge couple of weeks.

Carlos Gonzalez

2010 Home: 25 HR, .394 AVG, .440 OBP, .801 SLG, 1.241 OPS, .391 BABIP, .515 wOBA
2010 Road: 7 HR, .288 AVG, .310 OBP, .450 SLG, .760 OPS, .378 BABIP, .330 wOBA

He’s actually emerged as a legitimate MVP candidate – I’m certain at least in the voters’ eyes – and if he were actually able to make up the 3 HR deficit to Albert Pujols and maintain his league leading batting average and RBI, he would probably win the MVP unanimously. As Posnanski points out, a NL player hasn’t won the elusive Triple Crown since 1967 when Yaz did it. But I still maintain – and anyone with eyeballs should too – that he’s hitting like two completely different people whether at home or on the road.

But anyway, when I thought of how cavernous Gonzalez’s home and road splits were, I thought of another player. Pablo Sandoval’s home and road wOBA differential is nearly as startling as Carlos Gonzalez’s – .185 versus .148. While Gonzalez is having an ultra extraordinary season at home and a now mediocre or average season on the road, Pablo has excellent numbers at home and absolutely dreadful numbers away from AT&T. Why?

First, let’s take a look at Panda’s home and road numbers in both ’09 and ’10.

Pablo “Panda” Sandoval

2009 Home: 13 HR, .412 OBP, .600 SLG, 1.012 OPS, .378 BABIP, .427 wOBA
2009 Road: 12 HR, .363 OBP, .514 SLG, .877 OPS, .322 BABIP, .366 wOBA

2010 Home: 8 HR, .336 AVG, .391 OBP, .534 SLG, .926 OPS, .357 BABIP, .393 wOBA
2010 Road: 4 HR, .208 AVG, .260 OBP, .303 SLG, .563 OPS, .233 BABIP, .245 wOBA

BUT, and this is a big but, his batted ball percentages don’t really support this enormous chasm in production. His line drive percentage (LD%) at home is 15.6% and away is 16.7%. LD% is the most important of them all, and a higher percentage basically always relates to greater success. This is because they result in a hit about 75% of the time. His ground ball percentage (GB%) is 48.6% at home and 41.4% on the road. A higher GB% is not good and almost always relates to less success, especially for those who are non-speedy. His fly ball percentage (FB%) at home is 35.8% and 41.9% on the road and his infield fly ball percentage (IFFB%) is 12.8% at home and 7.5% on the road. Unfortunately, his fly balls at home are going for a HR 10.3% of the time and only 4.3% on the road. Here’s what they looks liked in 2009, Stat – Home/Road: LD% - 19.0/18.3, GB% - 43.8/45.9, FB% - 37.2/35.8, IFFB% - 7.8/8.0.

Again, his wOBA delta home to away is an unbelievable .148. It’s obvious that Panda has probably lost a step and lacks some of the athleticism that earned him his now famous nickname. It’s also pretty obvious that it apperas pitchers have tied him into knots at certain points this season. But before we jump to conclusions and assume that we’ve seen the best of Panda, that he was a flash in the pan, I think we would all be wise to consider the factor of luck (or lack there of). Panda has a lower GB% and higher LD% on the road this season, and yet his BABIP is .124 points lower on the road. His skillset should lead us to believe that he’s capable of posting BABIP of .300 at the very least, and more likely considerably above that. My gut tells me it won’t be long befor Pablo is tormenting pitchers again on ankle breaking pitches and eye-high fastballs. If you don’t believe me, recall the look on Matt Latos’ face – the MLB leader in ERA – after Pablo took his eye high fastball in August and deposited it into McCovey Cove.

Apparently, Neyer found the subject intriguing as well.

Stats pulled from Fangraphs.com.