My evening with the Giants

By some stroke of absolute luck, I managed to make my way into the private viewing of the 2010 World Series and It’s Magic Inside DVD’s at AT&T ballpark.

I received an email from a PR person for Shout! Factory – the promoter of the World Series DVD – in which they offered a few free copies of the DVD to give away on the blog, and later, he forwarded an “Invitation to cover” the event. I thought it must have been some sort of mistake, but after getting an RSVP confirmation from a Giants front office staff member I was officially going, and ecstatic. I did ask for a +1, but it wasn’t in the cards; it’s better to quit while ahead, anyway.

I arrived at the ballpark around 6:15 PM last Thursday (12/2/10). I parked along the sidewalk near McCovey’s statue, near the cove opposite the ballpark. Parking with such ease was odd, to say the least. If my memory serves me correctly, the ballpark stadium lights were dimly lit but the ballpark neon’s were as bright as ever. I approached the Willie Mays plaza where we were to enter, and though I had to wait a bit in a light drizzle, I was snug as a bug. I hadn’t yet been carted off yes as a fraud, given an invite by some mistake.

Soon after, I was invited in and greeted with a free World Series DVD followed by my choice of beer, wine or water and a hot dog. Seriously? When it finally filled up, there were probably only around 100 people there, so it was pretty intimate. There were members of the media, many I did not recognize, but I did see: Hank Schulman from the Chronicle and Mychael* Urban, CSN Bay Area – who is a giant, if you weren’t aware. I’m 6’2” and felt like a twelve year old next to him. Even better, I saw Larry Baer, President and COO, Bill Neukom, Managing General Partner and CEOm, and right off the bat, Kuiper was directly to my left going over his narration duties. Up front were obvious members of the ownership group, in that many of them looked wealthy.

*Horrible spelling of Michael, (but not his fault).

Before the viewing of the It’s Magic Inside film, Brian Sabean and Bruce Bochy walked the World Series trophy down the middle of the aisle. It was equally sparkly as awesome. Duane Kuiper was the narrator for the viewing (and the first film) and was about as charismatic as possible, for what reason I’m not sure. The lights went out and the DVD began.

The first film was good and provided a few laughs, for example, when in Spring Training DeRosa joked how Edgar Renteria had a World Series winning hit back with the Marlins in “1985.” I probably don’t have to say it, but it was actually 1997. And this was both funny and awesome, because six months later Renteria got the last laugh, for obvious reasons. Overall, I enjoyed the film but it skipped by key moments, which is understandable, but also seemed to have the ability to somehow make certain moments of the 2010 euphoria somehow anticlimactic, which was not understandable. I think the editing left a little to be desired in certain areas.

After the first film ended, we were given around ten minutes to use the restroom and grab some popcorn. I witnessed a conversation between Ashkon of the “Don’t Stop Believin’” YouTube sensation and Larry Baer.

Then the World Series film began. The World Series film was undoubtedly the better of the two, despite being narrated by Rob Schneider. Actually, in his defense, he has a pretty good voice for a narrator, when being serious, and pretty much forgot it was him after about five minutes. It did take us through the 2010 season starting in Spring Training, all the way up to the clinch on the final Sunday of the year against San Diego, catching some key moments along the way. It then gave pretty good if not a bit rushed recap of both the NLDS against and Atlanta and NLCS against Philadelipha. But finally, when it got to the World Series, the coverage was awesome. The film did a good job of bringing the viewer right back to the World Series, game by game, culminating in Renteria’s miraculous home run and Wilson’s save to end all the torture. If you’re planning to purchase just one of the two, purchase the World Series version and you’ll be glad you did.

Afterwards, Kuiper asked some questions to Brian Sabean and Bruce Bochy. It was pretty interesting to learn that Bochy didn’t get to celebrate with the team in the clubhouse because he got pulled the MVP trophy ceremony, interviews, and almost immediately had to hunker down with Sabean to make decisions about 2011, thanks to the pushing up of the free agency deadline to five days after the World Series. He said he then slept for about five days straight when he finally got the chance, unsurprisingly.

Bochy also expressed awe in his rookie catcher for catching every pitch from about mid-September until Wilson struck out Cruz to win the World Series. It’s pretty remarkable when you think about it, and just more praise for the Giants’ franchise position player, Buster Posey.

Brian Sabean was clearly proud of his and the Giants’ accomplishment, as he should be.

As it all wrapped up, I got to take a picture with the World Series trophy, as well as shake hands with Bill Neukom. I told him “thank you for a great season” and he replied, “thank you.” His thank you felt sincere and it was probably the highlight of my night. While I don’t always agree with the roster decisions made by the Giants, I always see the Giants as an exceedingly classy organization. They have the human aspect down to a T.

As I walked out of the park after a wonderful evening, I snapped a few pictures with my iPhone; the park photos so beautifully, it’s crazy. After my evening of rubbing (brushing) elbows with the Giants executives, meeting Ashkon – a huge part of my 2010 experience – watching the films, seeing a few members of the media and taking a photo with the trophy that had eluded the Giants since 1954, one thing was unmistakable: It had finally sunk in, at least for me, the Giants are the 2010 World Series Champions. Holy cow.

Jayson Werth signs with Nationals

I’ll start this post with a retelling of an excerpt from Michael Lewis’ – the writer of Liar’s Poker, Moneyball and The Blindside, among others – newest work, The Big Short:
 
--- When a [super agent] helped him [to sign a free agent] that seemd perfect in every way, [Mike Rizzo] asked the [agent]. “I appreciate this, but I just want to know one thing: How are you going to fuck me?”
 
Heh-heh-heh, c’mon, [I’d] never do that, the trader started to say, but [Mike], though perfectly polite, was insistent… And the [agent] explained how he was going to fuck him. And [Mike signed the free agent]. ---
 
Now let’s be clear: Jayson Werth is an excellent player. He’s a good defender, with a good arm. He’s a good baserunner, with great instincts. He’s a very good hitter, with a great eye and the ability to work the count and get on base. While not Adam Dunnn, he also hits for power.
 
But, he’s not without his flaws (he strikes out more than a quarter of the time). And most importantly, he’s not getting any younger. Carl Crawford is going to be 29 in 2011, and thus should expect around a seven year deal. But Jayson Werth is going to be 32, and to make matters worse, he’s had a history of injury. He’s had both knee problems and wrist problems, which is to say, he’s not the likeliest of candidates to both age well and avoid nagging injuries as his career progresses and he reaches those ages in which players most often get hurt, i.e. their mid to upper thirties.
 
This contract is as ill-advised as Fredo taking a boat ride. It’s nearly impossible to arrive at a figure that justifies Jayson Werth’s contract, for 7 seasons and $126 million. To do so, you really have to paint it peachy.
 
As 2011 will be his age 32 season, the Nationals have expertly signed him just in time for his decline phase. Brilliant. If we average his Wins above Replacement (WAR) over the last three seasons, giving a 50/50 weighting to Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference, we can get a 2011 WAR of 4.58 for Jayson. If we assume that the dollar per win above replacement for the 2011 season is around $5 million – and so long as teams are doling out this kind of money this offsesaon, it seems a fair assumption –  and then increase that rate over the following six seasons (or the duration of his contract) at 7% per season, as well as assume he regresses at just half a win per season through age 38, we can get to $126 million. I got $127.22.
 
Unfortunately, it’s extremely unlikely that all of these occurences will happen in parallel. Probably the least of which is that Jayson will age at just half a win per season. If we go to a 0.7 regression in years 34-38, and a more modest $/win growth rate of 5% per season, we can get to $102.35 million. That’s still an overpay of about $25 million, and we still have not factored in the fact that a) Werth was likely helped in the past three seasons by his home ballpark, Citizens Bank Park, and b) the Nationals aren’t likely to contend in the next two seasons when Werth will almost certainly be doing his best work.
 
This is an ugly contract that Rizzo will almost certainly come to regret. It’s too bad he didn’t lock up Ryan Zimmerman, who looks to be a perennial MVP candidate if the Nationals can climb into relevance – though, it should be noted, Rizzo has effectively just made this much less likely to happen.
 
The moral of the story is this: Scott Boras does it again. It was said that the offer was so large in terms of years and dollars, Boras didn’t even bother to submit it to other teams to see if they would be willing to match it. That about sums it up. It's also worth noting the Phillies got jobbed on this: Because the Nat's were a bottom feeder in 2010, their frat round pick was protected and thus Philly will get their second rounder and a sandwich pick, which together, won't be nearly as valauable probably. Though, in a deep draft, it's not a disaster.

Burrell gives Giants what Derek Jeter won't

It’s hard not to like the deal of re-signing Pat Burrell for one year and $1 million without incentives. In fact, I think you’d have to be a Machine not to like it, and a not very bright one at that.
 
When I first heard of the deal, it was reported he’d be retained at a “fraction” of his 2010, $9 million salary; this was paid almost completely by the Rays, as many will recall. I wanted to reserve judgment on the signing until I heard the exact terms of the contact, because telling us it was “at a fraction” wasn’t telling us much at all, other than to say it was for less. Weird.
 
Pat’s already said he’d be willing to play in a reserve role. In that capacity, I think he’s an excellent option as a right handed pinch hitter off the bench. He’s clearly capable of giving your squad a good at bat, perhaps drawing a walk, and he’s also good for igniting the crowd (or depressing a road one) with a majestic fly ball or a lightning bolt to left on occasion. Just ask Jonathan Broxton.
 
Even with his dreadful start to the 2010 season in Tampa Bay, Pat Burrell put up a .252 average, .348 on base percentage (OBP), .469 slugging percentage (SLG) and a .351 weighted on base average (wOBA). And I’m not cherry picking his San Francisco stats, this is his line for the season in aggregate. He also hit 20 home runs and his .217 isolaTed Power (ISO) was right in line with his career mark of .221. All said and done, and with some apparently quality defense – I don’t expect this to reoccur, I’m not delusional – his season Wins Above Replacement (WAR) was 2.5. That means he was worth around $11 million in 2010.
 
By signing Pat Burrell for just $1 million without incentives – this is a key, i.e. the lack of incentives or possible add-ons – the Giants are basically paying for 0.2 wins in 2011. It would take a remarkable nose-dive in 2011 for him not to be worth that. More likely, he will exceed that by a wide margin if he’s given any significant playing time. I mean, if he dropped two full wins, he’d still be worth the money. It’s clear that Pat has given the Giants the elusive hometown discount. Not even the greatest, most revered, team oriented players in the game today are willing to do that. If you don’t believe me, just ask Derek Jeter.  
 
I’m very much looking forward to seeing Huff and Burrell back at it again. Their antics and dugout celebrations were phenomenal. If you weren’t able to see the complete genuineness in their interactions throughout 2010, you probably don’t have a soul. I’m just saying.
 
Having said that, Neyer said it best in his thoughts on the deal – and for the record, it’s exactly how I ended my post on Tejada, as well.
 

Is Beane's offer to Beltre foolish?

Athletics fans – all three of you reading this – if you have not already read my previous post, then you’re behind the ball. Quickly – Now! – go read my piece on Carl Crawford to catch up.

It’s been widely reported that Billy Beane, GM of the oppressed Oakland Athletics, is willing to offer Mr. Adrian Beltre a sum of $64 million dollars for his services over a term of five seasons, at the end of which (2015), he will be 36 years old. And according to Scott Boras, he’ll be headed to the Cooperstown; we’ll see about THAT.

Let’s run him through our Tom Tango framework (from the previous post, which I’ve already alluded to); because he’s another Big Fish on the market this offseason.

Assumption 1: He’s worth 4.05 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) in 2011. Why? If you weight his WAR in each season from 2004, i.e. his mega walk year for the Dodgers, to 2010, i.e. his near-mega walk year while not equally fantastic with  Boston, with a 50/50 split between Fangraphs’ and Baseball-Reference’s WAR figures*, and then you average those weighted WAR’s, you get 4.05 WAR. That’s simple enough, right? In any case, it’s what I’m using.

*We have the same phenomenon as with Carl Crawford, by the way, where Fangraphs loves Beltre and Baseball-Reference just likes him. I think it’s because Fangraphs is giving him too much credit for defense, or Baseball-Reference too little, but that’s a discussion for another time.

Assumption 2: He will regress at a rate of 0.7 wins per season, which seems at least somewhat likely if not being just slightly pessimistic.

Assumption 3: The dollars ($) per win above replacement will start at $4.5 million in 2010 and increase at a rate of 5% per season.

Plug it in and: VOILA! Using these assumptions he’s worth almost exactly $64 million over the next five seasons ($64.2 M), which is the exact offer believed to be on the table for Beltre at this moment. I love it when a plan comes together. To answer the question of my title: no.

Carl Crawford's Potential Bounty

Update: Carl Crawford was just signed by the Boston Red Sox for 7 years and $142 million. It looks like I nailed this one with Tango's framework. Check out what I wrote a few days ago (below).

Tom Tango recently did some work to determine how a player will age over a contract, and according to him, it looks as though a regression of 0.5 wins above replacement per season is a good place to start for an elite player hitting free agency. That framework seems to work best for player age 28-33, and perhaps, a more robust drop of 0.7 should be applied to players that are 34 and older. That makes sense intuitively, because we know that in the post-steroid era, a players skills erode precipitously at advanced ages (as they should), and you can almost see it before your very eyes.

I used this very framework most recently to try and come to some conclusion on what Miguel Tejada might be worth next season. Admittedly, it wasn’t the best instance to use this methodology because even over several years you’re not going to get perfect linear regression for a single player, and thus over a single year you’re really drawing at straws.

Joey over at BBTIA (Baseball Time in Arlington) applied this very same framework to Cliff Lee. He came to the conclusion that Lee might be worth around $143 million over a six year deal paying him $23.3 million per season (straight line) and ending in 2016 when he’s 37. That’s if he was 1) worth 6 wins in 2011 2) regressed at just .5 wins per season and 3) starting with $4.5 million in 2011, the cost per win in baseball increased at a rate of 5% per season. His other (less peachy) scenario had him declining at .7 wins per season, which ultimately leaves his value at $127 million on a six year deal, a non-disaster of $13 million in overpayment; otherwise known as: who gives a crap if you win a World Series because of it?

It only seemed fitting despite the fact that I’m a Giants blogger and there seems a slightly greater chance that Sabean brings back Willie Mays than Carl Craword, that someone try this on Mr. Crawford as well. Here goes.

My assumptions are that Crawford is worth 5.45 wins above replacement in 2011. Why not? I got this by splitting the Fangraphs – a site that loves Crawford – WAR from 2009 as well as the Basebalal-Reference – who very much likes Carl Crawford – WAR for 2009, and splitting them 50/50. That method renders Crawford worth 5.05 wins in 2009. I did the same for 2010 which yielded a value of 5.85 wins. Finally, I averaged the two years to surmise his worth is 5.45 wins in 2011. This seemed a reasonable place to start, at least to me.

Next, I assumed Crawford would get a deal of $140 million – the same deal Lee got in Joey’s scenario – except over 7 years instead of 6. I did this because Crawford is 3 years younger and it’s assumed he will age well. I think there’s a strong likelihood he gets a 6-8 year deal, he’s asking for 8, so I went with 7 or in between the two. Also, I went with just a $20 million annual salary because he’s a corner outfielder, and somehow I feel that may prevent him from getting truly elite annual salary dollars.

In terms of dollar per win increases, I also went with a 5% increase per year, making a free agent win cost around $6 million in 2017. That seems reasonable enough to me, right now, but I realize this could swing significantly.

My last assumption was that Crawford would regress by 0.5 wins for the first 3 seasons (30-33) and then by .7 wins in his final two seasons (34-35). This was a blending of sorts with what Joey did; he opted to create two scenarios where in one he regressed by .5 and the other by .7. I, however, wanted to present a single scenario to justify a hypothetical contract for Crawford, as well as to regress him more rapidly only in the latter years of his contract.

All said and done, Crawford – again, using these assumptions – would be worth more than the $20 million per over the first four seasons ($90.57 million value versus $80 million salary), and then be worth less than his annual check in his final three seasons ($47.03 value versus $60 million salary). It looks to me like Crawford is a good bet to be worth around $140 million over seven years, and having said that, I won’t be the least bit surprised if he gets a similar deal to that of Cliff Lee. Feel free to plug in your own assumptions; I'll throw my spreadsheet onto my Box.net gadget on the right-hand side to make it easier for you.

And finally, no Giants fans, Crawford will not be roaming left field at AT&T in 2010.

SF Giants sign Miguel Tejada

First off, it should not be remotely surprising that Brian Sabean has chosen to sign Miguel Tejada. He went with the established veteran, something he’s done time and time again throughout his tenure. Let’s take a look at the two established veterans that just departed, Renteria and Uribe. Both were considered leaders in the clubhouse, like Tejada, and one hit an NLCS clinching HR while the other hit the World Series winning HR against one of the best pitchers in baseball, sealing his Fall Classic MVP. This all but confirmed Sabean's philosophy, so of all the responses you should have following this announcement, shock should be the last.
 
It’s also important to quickly dispel the myth that Tejada HAS power. He HAD power. People hear Tejada and they think he has pop, but in his current, 36-year-old state that couldn't be further from the truth; his 2010 slugging percentage of .381 was a point lower than Scott Podsednik. Rumor dispatched.
 
Something he also far from possesses, and this holds true now and throughout his entire career, is plate discipline. If you think Uribe likes to hack, you probably won’t be thrilled to learn that Tejada saw fewer pitches per plate appearance (P/PA) than Juan in 2010 (3.34 versus 3.59). Tejada had a 90 OPS+ in ’10 – that’s 10% worse than a league average hitter – to go along with a .306 weighted on base average (wOBA), .312 on base percentage (OBP), .381 slugging percentage (SLG), and .693 OPS. That’s awful.
 
Bill James projects he'll rebound slightly to the tune of a .320 wOBA in ‘11, but he's no upgrade over what the Giants had in 2010 with Renteria (.314 wOBA) and Uribe (.322 wOBA). More likely, he's a downgrade, both offensively and defensively.
 
He's had negative defensive ratings by Fangraphs in 9 of 13 seasons (-4.9 wins career) and in 10 of 13 by Baseball-reference (-6.7 wins career). Which is to say, they never thought his defense was good, and because he'll turn 37 in May, it’s bound to be atrocious. You wouldn't mind the defense if he was still hitting even near as well as he was in his prime, but he's not, and he won't again.
 
One thing he does do is play every day, and that’s probably worth something. But he will need to again be worth the 1.35 wins above replacement (WAR) he was in 2010 to earn his paycheck. His WAR was 1.35 when you blend his 2010 WAR 50/50 between Fangraphs (1.3) and Baseball-Reference (1.4). He’ll need to play at least that well to be worth the $6.5 million they're paying him at the rate of $4.5 to $5 million per win (which is the believed to be value of a win above replacement on the open market currently).
 
*1.35 WAR x ($4.5 or $5.0) = $6.075 to $6.75 million, or right on the money
 
The trouble is, there’s reason to believe he won’t play that well. Players at such an advanced age lose about a half a win per season on average, at least. Some work by Tom Tango recently revealed that it's probably appropriate to regress even more aggressively with players over 33 to the tune of 0.7 wins per season. If that holds true, and even if we take the higher market value of $5 million per win and the higher WAR figure from Baseball-Reference of 1.4, he'd regress to 0.7 wins above replacement in 2011, or a value of $3.5 million. However you look at it, it looks as though the Giants are paying him fair value, best case scenario, or about $3 million too much worst case scenario. In my wildest dreams he might be worth two wins next year, but I’d be happy if he again hit 1.3 wins above replacement.
 
The silver lining in all of this is pretty obvious, though. While Sabean surely did not avoid going the once-upon-a-time-a-star, veteran route, he did manage to avoid doling out a multi year deal. Progress! Tejada will be a one year stop-gap to give the Giants' minor league options time to develop. If none of them (Brandon Crawford and Ehire Adrianza, specifically) pan out, they'll again look to build another bridge to the next prospect, or fill the need via free agency or the trade market.
 
It's easy to ridicule, tar and feather Sabean for this deal based on Tejada's recent success (or rather, lack there of), but we all knew the shortstop options weren't attractive. Many would have probably preferred Uribe at 3 years and $21 million, but those in favor would also likely be first in line to crucify Sabean when in two years he isn't hitting, a serviceable shortstop, healthy, or some combination of the three. The truth of it is this: Uribe may and likely will be the better player in 2011, but after that the Dodgers are on the hook for two more seasons and an additional $14 million. The Giants won’t be.
 
The Giants picked one out of a stable of unattractive options, and are content to see how it works and buy themselves enough time to find a long-term option later. What were the other options? As far as free agents go, there was Cezar Izturis with his .248 wOBA and -0.3 WAR. There was Orlando Cabrera with the .292 wOBA and 1.3 WAR. There was Edgar Renteria with a .314 wOBA and 1.3 WAR but who can’t possibly be expected to play even half a season. There was Adam Everett with his .210 wOBA and -0.3 WAR in just 31 games this past season. There was Christian Guzman and his .287 wOBA and -0.1 WAR. Are you getting the picture? Trade candidates who would cost a prospect or two were: Jason Bartlett (.302 wOBA, 0.7 WAR), J.J. Hardy (.313 wOBA, 2.4 WAR) and Ryan Theriot who was already shipped to the Cardinals by the Dodgers. There was technically Derek Jeter. He, however, would have cost more than the Yankees were willing to pay, or upwards of $45 million over three seasons, which can also be described as a sum likely far greater than his actual worth.
 
The truth is the options were awful, and throwing darts at a board of their names or faces would have been about as productive. The Giants get a sandwich pick between the first and second rounds because Uribe went to the Dodgers as a Type B free agent. The Giants also didn’t sign themselves up to a multi-year deal with a player they weren’t wild about – Uribe was clearly in this category. Finally, they didn’t cost themselves a prospect, and Sabean has been clutching them tightly in recent years, the results of which cannot be argued with.
 
One thing to keep in mind and certainly keep an eye on is this: If Pablo doesn't return to his 2009 form or something approaching it, the wheels could fall off the left side of the infield in a hurry. The lack of range on the left side would be frightening, and the lack of plate discipline and propensity to ground into double plays between them could be horrifying. This is the nightmare scenario. What’s more, if either J.J. Hardy or Jason Bartlett are non-tendered instead of traded, the Giants may have painted themselves into a corner in which they cannot negotiate for their services due to lack of payroll. This seems unlikely, but it’s a possibility.
 
A blanket goal of the offseason should have been to improve. On top of that, the front office explicitly acknowledged a desire to get more athletic and more left-handed. They've accomplished neither the specific goals nor the blanket goal to this point in the offseason, and it’s far from apparent that additional moves will change any of that.
 
Hopefully, management recognizes quickly – if they have not already – that while the results of 2010 were a Dream Come True, the path taken was far from a straight line. The savvy veteran will not always hit an opposite field home run to win the pennant. The aged shortstop will not always hit an improbably home run off of the elite left-handed pitcher. Pitchers have down years and players get hurt; no matter how good your pitching is, the goal should never be to score "3 to 4 runs per game." The Giants simply MUST find a way to eclipse 700 runs by some significant number, or else they'll be missing the playoffs more often than they’d like.
 
Am I wild about Tejada? No. But after further reflection following my initial knee-jerk reaction, he’s not a disaster.

The 11th Reason...

There were a number of baseball fans across the country whose passion for baseball was ratcheted up a notch thanks to the 2010 Giants. Their interest had dwindled over the years for various reasons: bad trades, enormous contracts and overpaid, spoiled, steroid using players. While the 1998 home run chase reinvigorated the sport and drove revenues to new heights, the BALCO investigation and Mitchell Report were the hangover after the party. For a lot of people, the 2010 Giants brought the word team back into sports and was refreshing to many*, even to hardened fans of struggling franchises, like the Mariners. My fiancés father, Gregg, a self-proclaimed “hardened Mariners fan,” pointed this 11th reason out to me.  
 
*I say “to many,” though not to as many as should have been possible. Jeff Passan at Yahoo! Sports just wrote an article laying out his reasons for being adamantly against an expanded playoff. I’m right there with him. It’s sad and extremely transparent, that Selig’s and Baseball’s primary motivation for expanding the playoffs is not to improve the game, but instead it’s for greed. As Jeff points out, expanded instant replay, which would provide an instantaneous improvement, is coming along as slow as a banana slug and is a perfect example of what’s overlooked when there are dollar signs in the eyes. He also suggests Selig could simply speak to ESPN and FOX and simply say, for the “long-term health [of the game], the networks need to focus less on the Yankees and Red Sox and more on growing the fan base among small and medium markets so a World Series like this year’s doesn’t find itself eminently skippable.”  But the money is in the Yankees and Sox rivalry, as tired and watered down as that storyline has become in the past 8 years, and not in the rest of baseball.  Until baseball becomes more interested in the sanctity and health of the game, and not just the loot that comes with it, fans will be missing out across the country, especially when a fun-to-watch team like the 2010 Giants comes along, and they simply haven’t heard much more than a peep about them for six solid months leading up to the Fall Classic.

For San Francisco Giants fans...

While we wait for a shortstop to appear under the Christmas tree, here’s 10 reasons why it’s completely awesome the Giants won the World *Flippin’* Series:
 
1)      Every once in a while, when you’re washing your car, driving, deciding what to make for dinner, petting a dog, brushing your teeth, watching a movie, or doing one (or two) of any number of ordinary, mundane, or spectacular things, you remember. You remember that not only did they win the World Series, but that right then in that moment, they are the champs. It still hasn’t hit you. Will it ever? Then you smile, and then you just can’t even believe it. You’re suddenly overwhelmed with uncontrollable, unbridled joy. And often, you’ll text a friend, brother or relative to remind them. And should this friend, brother or relative not be a Giants fan – I do admit to being friends with a Padres fan or two – you just go head and text them anyway, because that’s what friends are for.
 
2)      The next time you go to a game at AT&T versus the A’s, a subhuman, impossibly intoxicated by the first inning Oakland A’s fan – I’m not suggesting they all are gassed top one or subhuman – cannot say: “The Giants have never won a World Series.” Why? Well, for one, this wasn’t the case before the Giants took home the ring in 2010; they were quite successful while in New York. This fact, however, didn’t used to stop them unfortunately. Had they then said the “San Francisco Giants have never won a World Series,” they would have been absolutely correct. Until November 1, 2010, that is. Perhaps now they’ll also be less inclined to spit tobacco all over your bleacher seats at the last pitch of a shutout Tim Lincecum was throwing against their Athletics (and hurriedly scurry to the gates); but I won’t guarantee such behavior will stop. (This DID happen to me.) But I digressed; never again can they say it.
 
3)      The next time the Dodgers come to town, or should you ever encounter a Dodgers fan in public (or in private), you absolutely can say: “The last time the Dodgers were even in the World Series was 1988 – correct, when Ronald Reagan was President. The Giants have since been to the World Series three times – to the Dodgers’ zero – winning most recently in 2010.”
 
4)      You can also say: “your catcher is NOT Buster Posey,” to almost anyone*. While this isn’t exactly directly tied to the World Series, it’s still fantastically fun to do.
 
*Good rebuttals for Joe Mauer and Brian McCann are: younger, better catcher, and cheaper.
 
5)      You can wear your Giants cap in any bar, any city, any park, and any sporting venue in the United States, and you are invincible. It’s like a child-imagined force field, capable of deflecting the most (and least) clever razzings, name calling, and fan vitriol, even if it’s coming by the buckets. Come backs aren’t even necessary. And if you’re in San Francisco, it’s still quite good for a high five.
 
6)      When the World Series Championship commemorative DVD’s (and Blu-Ray’s) come out, it won’t be annoying. Not in the least bit. It’ll only stand to remind you, yet again, closely followed by a wide smile.
 
7)      No person, ever again, can say that the Giants’ stellar pitching – I’m talking elite Tim Lincecum, in his prime Matt Cain, and shutdown, Looney Tunes closer Brian Wilson, emerging Madison and Dirty Sanchez – was “wasted.”
 
8)      You FEEL like if they never won a World Series again, it would be OK. (It wouldn’t be.) But you also know their pitching is locked up for the next several seasons, that they have a fighting chance. And for this reason, and others, you want more. You’re now as greedy as a Yankees fan.
 
9)      You bask in the fact that the 10 of 10 ESPN “experts” chose the Phillies in the NLCS, and 9 of 10 “experts” chose the Rangers in the World Series. And across the country, few gave them a chance to even lose in six or seven games, let alone win in five.
 
10)   The cloud of Bonds has lifted, the Croix de Candlestick pins mean so much more, the Garlic Fries taste so much better, the Jersey Shore Fist Pump is now somehow alright, the mere sound of the Taio Cruz song “Dynamite” brings you back to the park, the lyrics for Journey’s “Don’t Stop Believing” are forever changed, the city is now and forever will be a Baseball Town, the rally thong is immortalized, Cody Ross is boss, Renteria’s contract was somehow splendid, baseballs sometimes hit the top of the fence and bounce back, neither Cliff Lee nor Roy Halladay are indomitable, Javier Lopez is a lefty slayer, Mike Murphy got his ring, Juan Uribe WAS clutch before he was painted blue and littered in green, beards are extremely cool, run support is for the faint of heart, and finally, whatever else  you can recall and is in your heart, that too. Because while this was similar for many of us, in some way it was different for all of us too. And no one can take that away.

MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL PRODUCTIONS AND SHOUT! FACTORY RELEASE OFFICIAL BLU-RAY AND DVD CHRONICLING SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS 2010 WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONSHIP

PaapFly readers: The 2010 World Series DVD and Blu-ray disc commemorating the Giants' triumph is coming out, and I may get a chance to check it out before it's released on December 7th. Also, I may get a few free copies that I'll be able to give away to a lucky reader or two. Stay tuned. The details regarding the DVD and Blu-ray are below:

Official “2010 World Series Film: Texas Rangers vs. San Francisco Giants” With Narration by Actor Rob Schneider

2-Disc Blu-ray + DVD Combo Pack and Single Disc DVD
Available Nationwide on December 7, 2010

The 2010 Fall Classic proved the “Year of the Pitcher” to be true when the San Francisco Giants rode their power staff and timely hitting to vanquish the Texas Rangers. Fifty-two years after moving to San Francisco from New York in 1958, the Giants won their first World Series title in San Francisco and sixth overall in franchise history, the team’s first since 1954 when the then New York Giants bested the Cleveland Indians in a series best known for Willie Mays classic over-the-shoulder catch.

Celebrating the excitement of this year’s Fall Classic, Major League Baseball Productions and Shout! Factory are offering baseball fans the ultimate insider’s look at the Giants’ quest to win this year’s World Series title with a four-games-to-one series victory over the Rangers. The official 2010 World Series Film: Texas Rangers vs. San Francisco Giants Blu-ray + DVD Combo Pack and single disc DVD, debuting in-stores nationwide on December 7, 2010, grants fans the opportunity to relive the long-awaited Giants triumph, putting an end to a World Series title drought that had lasted more than half a century .

Narrated by actor Rob Schneider, the collectible 2010 World Series Film provides extensive coverage of this year’s Fall Classic and will be sold at the San Francisco Giants Clubhouse Shops, the official team stores of the San Francisco Giants; online at MLB.com, the official Web site of Major League Baseball, as well as Giants.com; and at retailers in the San Francisco Bay Area and nationwide. The official Blu-ray and DVD editions are available now to preorder at MLB.com, Giants.com, Amazon.com and various online retailers. The 2-Disc Blu-ray + DVD combo pack is priced to own at $29.93 and the single disc DVD is available at $19.93.

The 2010 World Series Film Blu-ray and DVD editions feature more than 80 minutes of main program presentation and nearly 30 minutes of bonus footage, including highlights from the National League Championship Series, the National League Division Series, the World Series, clubhouse celebrations and the championship parade. Using elements captured through the unparalleled access of Major League Baseball Productions, the official World Series Film provides unique, adrenaline-filled game-by-game coverage of the 2010 World Series as well as interviews with players, coaches and team personnel, allowing fans an exclusive passport to the clubhouse during the Giants’ postseason run.

Both the Giants and Rangers teams featured game-changing players, elite pitching performances and a knack for the dramatic home run. The Giants became only the second team to clinch all three playoff series on the road. Of all the teams in the post season, the Giants had spent the shortest amount of time in first place, 37 days. Each team cut its way through the Division Series and League Championship Series with the same goal in mind. But when the final out of the Fall Classic was recorded, it was the San Francisco Giants that prevailed.

The official 2010 World Series Film provides a comprehensive look at the amazing journey the San Francisco Giants made toward winning this year’s World Series. The Giants silenced the powerful Texas Rangers in five games to capture their sixth World Series title and first since moving to the city by the bay in 1958. Languishing in fourth place the first week of July – just a game better than .500 – the Giants staged a great second-half run, winning the National League West Division on the final day of the season before blowing past both the Atlanta Braves and the Philadelphia Phillies to reach the Fall Classic. Key in-season additions Cody Ross and Pat Burrell fueled the offense and nicely complemented seasoned vets like Juan Uribe, Aubrey Huff and World Series MVP Edgar Renteria. But there’s no doubt that it was the Giants pitching staff – guided by the deft hand of talented rookie catcher Buster Posey – that stole the show. Matt Cain did not allow a run in 21.1 brilliant innings of postseason play. Twenty-one-year-old Madison Bumgarner defied his age with a cold-as-ice performance to win Game 4 on the road. And two-time Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum twice bested Rangers ace Cliff Lee, including a stellar performance in the clinching game Game 5 showdown. With the unflappable Brian Wilson always there to close things out, the Giants pitching staff held the powerful Texas offense to a meager .190 batting average.

The Giants are World Champions – San Francisco fans can say it loud and proud. And they are the proof in the pudding that good pitching and timely hitting will bring you a ring.

2010 WORLD SERIES FILM: TEXAS RANGERS vs. SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS bonus features include:

· This Week in Baseball: Buster Posey
· Giants Clinch NL West: Final Out
· NLDS Game 5: Last Out
· NLCS Game 1: Cody Ross HRs
· NLCS Game 6: Juan Uribe HR
· NLCS Game 6: Last Out
· World Series Game 1: Juan Uribe HR
· World Series Game 2: Edgar Renteria HR
· World Series Game 4: Freddie Sanchez Defensive Plays
· World Series Game 5: Lincecum Strike Outs
· World Series Game 5: Edgar Renteria HR
· World Series Game 5: Final Out and Celebration
· World Series Parade

2-DISC Blu-ray + DVD Combo Pack

2010 WORLD SERIES FILM: TEXAS RANGERS vs. SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS

Suggested Retail Price: $29.93
1080i High Definition / 16x9 Widescreen
Audio: DTS Master Audio / 2.0 Stereo
Release Date: December 7, 2010

Single Disc DVD

2010 WORLD SERIES FILM: TEXAS RANGERS vs. SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS

Suggested Retail Price: $19.99
16x9 Widescreen
Audio: 5.1 Dolby Digital
Release Date: December 7, 2010

About MLB Productions
Major League Baseball Productions is the Emmy® award-winning television and video production division of Major League Baseball and the official video archivists of the game. With unparalleled access to the Clubs and their players, Major League Baseball Productions produces original programming for growing audiences worldwide through its network specials, exclusive home videos, commercials and other specialty programming. For more information on Major League Baseball Productions, log on to http://www.mlbproductions.com/.

About Shout! Factory
Shout! Factory is a diversified entertainment company devoted to producing, uncovering and revitalizing the very best of pop culture. Founders Richard Foos, Bob Emmer and Garson Foos have spent their careers sharing their music, television and film faves with discerning consumers the world over. Shout! Factory’s DVD offerings serve up classic, contemporary and cult TV series, riveting sports programs, live music, animation and documentaries in lavish packages crammed with extras. The company’s audio catalog boasts GRAMMY®-nominated boxed sets, new releases from storied artists, lovingly assembled album reissues and indispensable “best of” compilations. These riches are the result of a creative acquisitions mandate that has established the company as a hotbed of cultural preservation and commercial reinvention. Shout! Factory is based in Santa Monica, Calif. Its fine products are distributed by Vivendi Entertainment. For more on Shout! Factory, visit shoutfactory.com.

 Contact:
Jeff Heckelman, Major League Baseball (212) 931-7824/ jeff.heckelman@mlb.com
Tom Chen, Shout! Factory (310) 979-5602/ tchen@shoutfactory.com
Jeff Freedman, Shout! Factory (310) 277-2042/ FSPRJEFF@aol.com

Juan Uribe signs with Dodgers

Juan Uribe has officially signed with the hated Dodgers, pending a physical, and yet I harbor no ill feelings toward him. Prior to the 2009 season, Juan Uribe couldn’t find a job and the Giants signed him to a minor league contract. Despite the slight salary, he gathered 2.8 wins above replacement (Fangraphs version of WAR) in just 122 games while playing several infield positions. Uribe hoped his season would earn him a multi-year deal following that campaign, but it just didn’t in a down economy that impacted even professional sports. The Giants re-signed him for $3.25M in 2010 and he helped them significantly with a 3.2 WAR and some late game heroics. He was a huge reason the Giants won the World Series.
 
Jeff Kent went to the Dodgers and it was terribly fun to boo him. Jason Schmidt signed with them too, and immediately turned into Mike Hampton. That wasn’t necessarily FUN to watch, though if it were enjoyable to watch ANYONE rot on the DL, he’d have to be playing for the Dodgers. I’d like to say I wish Uribe well, but I’m just not sure I do. Not yet, anyway. No, rather I’m mostly happy that he finally earned some money that was well deserved. This was his third crack at free agency, and the first two shots yielded him A) a minor league deal and B) a one year deal of $3.25M. This 3/$21M pact will set him and his family up for life, and for that I am happy for him.
 
And when HE is flashing that World Series ring to his teammates in L.A. – Isn’t that a wonderful thought? –this is how I will be remembering him.
 
Juan Uribe THE LEGEND
 
It grows and grows…
 
May 15, 2010
 
Juan Uribe, in the fourth inning, took Roy Oswalt deep with one on to give the Giants the narrow lead, 2-1. Lincecum would go eight and Wilson would save it. Uribe’s blast was all the offense the Giants needed, and he and Oswalt would meet again.
 
June 7, 2010
 
Uribe would finish this ballgame with 4 RBI, the last two coming off of a single in the seventh that scored two and put the Giants up 6-5, and secured the win against the Reds.
 
August 14, 2010
 
In August the Giants needed a series win against the Padres, but more than that, they desperately needed to avoid a sweep and one at home no less. They trailed by two in this game into the seventh against the hated Latos – he who perplexingly called the Giants a bunch of mercenaries, meanwhile his shortstop and left fielder were of the same ilk, and who also destroyed the sun roof on our beloved Dave Fleming’s new car; seriously, who fires a baseball into the players parking lot? In the seventh, Panda chased him by clobbering an eye-high fastball into the water. Burrell provided an RBI ground out in the eighth. And finally in the eleventh, Posey doubled, Pablo was intentionally walked, and “Jazz Hands” Uribe singled home Buster in walk off fashion. Mayhem ensued.
 
September 4, 2010
 
On a warm, clear night in Los Angeles, the Dodgers were leading against San Francisco by 4 runs from the bottom of the fourth and into the seventh at Chavez Ravine. Then Posey hit a solo shot in the seventh, and Renteria – one of just 3 HR in the regular season – led off with one in the eighth. Dotel relieved Lilly, and was rudely greeted when Burrell went Yahtzee next – this was, of course, a little over a month after Burrell burned Broxton for a game winning two-run blast on July 31. And finally in the ninth, Uribe delivered the crippling blow to the Dodgers with a two-run job off of their fallen closer, Jonathan Broxton, after a Cody Ross hustle, infield single. All was quiet, and the crowd of 48,220 (paid) emptied the bleachers, retired from their orange bucket seats and hurried to their crowded freeways.
 
October 20, 2010
 
The Giants went up 2-0 early with Bumgarner on the hill. Then, in the fifth, the Phillies put up a crooked number and it was 4-2 Phillies. But Huff singled home a run in the fifth to bring the Giants within one, and Pablo Sandoval hit a left-center gap double that scored two in the sixth – this was the biggest hit of his young career and his second double of the at bat – and the Giants led again. Lopez’s only blemish of the entire postseason – seriously – came in the eighth when Howard doubled off of him and Romo relented a Werth double that tied it in relieving him. But in the ninth, Manuel went with his starter Oswalt because it was his throw day, and because Roy talked him into it. Huff singled and Posey sent him first to third with an opposite field single following an epic battle, and also after going down 0 and 2. Uribe came up and Oswalt did everything to light Uribe’s hands on fire with fastballs in, because Uribe had a sore wrist. Except, he tried to get tricky and Uribe lofted his low changeup deep enough to left for Huff to score on a sacrifice fly. The home crowd went ballistic, and watching at home, so did I. The Giants were within a win of the Fall Classic.
 
October 23, 2010
 
The Giants went down early in game six of the NLCS. It was 2-0 after one, and Jonathan Sanchez was anything but sharp. But Sanchez singled in the top of the third and started a rally that tied the game 2-2. But then, he walked Polanco and hit Utley. Utley and he had history, and Utley somewhat politely tossed the ball towards the mound, which Sanchez took exception to. The benches cleared completely, except for a mild tempered fellow named Jeremy Affeldt, known for tweeting inspiration quotes, and his bullpen coach Mark Gardner. When the dust settled, Affeldt pitched two spectacular innings of no run ball, the first of which got them out of a two on, no out disaster. Then Bumgarner pitched two innings of no run relief. Then Lopez pitched an inning of no run relief. And in Ryan Madson’s second inning of relief, Juan Uribe did something he rarely does. He hit an opposite field, 346 foot home run that barely cleared the wall. I lost my mind. Soon after, Tim Lincecum struck out Jayson Werth before being relieved by Wilson, Ryan Howard looked disgusted while eyeing strike three, and the Giants won the pennant. Uribe was instantly enshrined in Giants lore.
 
Juan Uribe THE MAN
 
Now that I’ve covered the legend, I’ll try to throw in my two cents on whether the Dodgers did well on this contract, and therefore if the Giants missed out by not matching the deal.
 
Over the past two seasons, Juan Uribe has played third, second and shortstop for the Giants, and clubbed 40 combined home runs (16, 24). In those seasons, Fangraphs’ ultimate zone rating (UZR) has liked him at third (2.2, 2.6) and second (3.7, 2.1) in particular, and hasn’t hated him at short (-2.8, 2.1). His .351 weighted on base average (wOBA) was above average at .351 in 2009, and 10 to 20 points below average in 2010 (.322), though plenty good for a shortstop where he largely played. The Dodgers, however, have him slated for second in 2011. To be fair though, it seems likely he’ll spend time at short too when Furcal inevitably goes down to one physical malady or another.
 
Will Juan live up to the $21 million he’ll make over the next three seasons? Maybe. Offensively, his on base percentage (OBP) in 2009 was just fine at .329 when coupled with his .495 slugging percentage (SLG).  But if his OBP continues to erode like it did in 2010 (.310), and should his slugging too (.440 in ‘10), the contract will soon be looked upon suspiciously. His career OBP is just .300 after all, and his slugging just .431. And, his .322 wOBA is far less palatable if he’s playing second base, and it’s not far-fetched to hypothesize it’ll be around there where his career wOBA is just .312.
 
Defensivley, Uribe has posted positive UZR ratings in 6 of the past 7 seasons, and his only negative mark was just -0.1 in 2008. Though it’s fair to say he’s never been an elite defender, it’s also fair to say he’ll probably be a quality defender at either third or second for the next couple of years. But, he’ll be 32, 33, and 34 over the life of this contract, which is to say that his peak years are likely behind him.
 
If he is able to maintain his status as a 3 win player over the next three seasons, the contract will be well worth it. The value of a win on the market will probably fall between $4 and $5 million – let’s say it’s $4.5 – and so if he was able to continue his recent success he could be worth as much as $40.5 million ($13.5 times three years). But he probably won’t play as much shortstop in L.A., so I’d say that’s a huge stretch. But even if he loses half a win per season starting in ’11 and through ’13, he’d still be worth around $27 million* total. But he’ll have to continue to be healthy for a full season or near it, and he’ll have to maintain his current abilities both offensively and defensively. But if he doesn’t, which isn’t a completely remote possibility, Colletti will have swung and missed.
 
*(2.5 Wins*$4.5M) + (2.0 Wins*$4.5M) + (1.5 Wins*$4.5M) = $27 million
 
The contract is not without risk, but which contract truly is? It appears the Dodgers probably got fair value for now, especially considering how thin the shortstop position is this offseason in terms of acquirable talent and that many clubs probably saw him as an option. Perhaps the Giants didn’t want to go too long, i.e. three years, or too rich, i.e. $21 million,  but then I guess who can blame them when they were getting 3 wins above replacement for two years for roughly $2 million a year? More than anything, I think that this contract could be particularly interesting to look back on in a couple of years.
 
Regardless of how well or poorly he does, I can’t help but be happy for him. He’ll look awfully strange in the Dodger blue. And I’ll always love Uribe for the past two seasons and 2010 especially, but won’t blame anyone for giving him a Booooo-Ribe chant when he visits China Basin.

Also worth noting, the Giants will pick up a sandwich pick (between the first and second rounds) because of Uribe's status as a Type B free agent.

Stats provided by Fangraphs