Remembering Giants’ 2006 offseason, ‘7 Rule IV Draft

The 2003 season ended abruptly for the Giants with a baseball tightly clutched in the hand of Ivan Rodriguez, dusty after being bowled over by J.T. Snow. The Marlins, for the second time in seven years, had blindsided them in the Divisional Series along their way to the World Series championship.

In 2004, the Giants’ season ended again in heartbreaking fashion, this time a bit sooner (but still late) on the last day of the regular season. As the Giants were eliminated from extra baseball – the scoreboard at Chavez Ravine happened to be the bearer of bad news – a disappointed Barry Bonds left the game early, grabbed his bats, and headed down the tunnel to the clubhouse. He’d had one of the greatest offensive seasons in history and it wasn’t enough to get to October. It was as painful as the day earlier, when Steve Finley had crushed their chances of the western-division title with a decisive walk-off grand slam.

The look on his face was and is unforgettable, a bitter representation of defeat. Not just of the battle, but of the war. Bonds must have known right then and there that his chance of making it back to the Fall Classic was gone; his career had slipped by without winning it all. At least there would be 755 to chase.

Unfortunately, the Giants and Brian Sabean didn’t know what their otherworldly slugger did. They’d won 91 games in 2004, finished a game out, and went looking to improve the team and make it back.

In 2005, they went out and got Omar Vizquel, Mike Matheny, closer Armando Benitez and, most notably, Moises Alou. The results were mixed, to say the least.

After a fantastic season in Florida the year before, Benitez blew out his hamstring in April. He’d never pitch well for the Giants, miss a ton of time to the DL, blow a lot of saves, and ultimately be traded back to the Marlins for Randy Messenger in May of 2007.  Giants fans wouldn't have peed on him if he were on fire. He was not a fan favorite.

Unfortunately, Alou dealt with injuries as well and only played 123 games. When he was on the field, he was very good. He hit .321/.400/.518 for an OPS+ of 138. But even worse than Alou’s limited playing time, Bonds only played 14 games (all in September) following knee surgery. He was his (not quite so) usual self, hitting five home runs in 52 plate appearances with a line of .286/.404/.667 for an OPS+ of 174. It wasn’t enough and the Giants finished with just 75 wins and in third in the NL West.

In 2006, the Giants were still supposed to contend. They signed Matt Morris but later sent him to Pittsburgh for Rajai Davis and a player to be named later (PTBNL) when they weren't contending. They also acquired Mike Stanton to close for a minor leaguer. But Bonds only played 130 games, Alou 98 and Ray Durham 137. That was trouble, because they were the only offense the Giants had to speak of. The acquisition of Shea Hillenbrand for an interesting bullpen arm in Jeremy Accardo didn’t do anything to bolster it. He was having a decent season in Toronto, but it didn’t continue in San Francisco as his average on balls in play (BABiP) went from .312 in Canada to .268 in the states.

They won 76 games to cap their second-straight losing season. Their once-great slugger was fading away. So, the Giants finally got the picture. They let their free agents walk, hung on to their own draft picks and collected those that came from the teams scooping up Stanton, Alou and Schmidt. They packed it in and prepared to watch the stadium fill, despite not competing, while Bonds surpassed Hank Aaron on his way to 762.

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A toothless threat to Zito

Bruce Jenkins of the San Francisco Chronicle wants to deliver a message to the Giants’ highest paid player, perhaps on behalf of the organization paying him:

A source close to the team indicated Tuesday that there is “exasperation” with Zito, that his status as the No. 5 starter is “definitely not safe,” and that the team would even considered buying out his expensive contract before Opening Day if that’s what it takes to say farewell…

Meanwhile, the Giants will take a close look at 16-year veteran Jeff Suppan (three shutout innings against Milwaukee on Monday), Class AA left-hander Clayton Tanner and other options for the No. 5 slot…

[Zito] has been a sub-.500 pitcher in each of his four seasons with San Francisco (40-57 total)…

 Let’s stop there. When, in a column, we start measuring a pitcher by his record, my eyes glaze over and I wonder why it’s so very hard to get away from this incumbent method.

What Jenkins failed to mention was that, since Zito arrived on the scene, the Giants have failed to score even 700 runs in any season (683, 640, 657 and 697). That’s 4.13 runs per game. Also, it’s completely terrible.

At the risk of a not-too-bright reader assuming that I am comparing Zito to Matt Cain, I will also point out that the latter has a record of 42-49 over that same period of time. Yet, he also carries an ERA of 3.35 and an adjusted ERA (ERA+) of 129 over the same period. That’s 29 percent greater than the league average starter. Also, it’s plenty good enough to warrant induction into the Hall of Fame if sustained over many years.

Please quit it with the wins.

It’s unfortunate, but writers and perhaps even the Giants’ entire organization is incapable of separating the player from the contract, an imperative when deciding what to do when a contract has gone sour. And this one has.

When we only provide Zito’s win-loss record in describing his abilities, we lose what he’s worth. The implication is that he’s plainly terrible. In truth, though, he’s much closer to a league-average starter. Overpaid? Yes. Frustrating? Yes. Worthless? No.

Since 2007, in order, Zito has been worth 1.7, 1.4, 2.2 and 2.1 wins above replacement (WAR) according to FanGraphs. Thus, he’s been worth nearly two wins (above replacement) per season (1.85).

When signing a free agent, the going rate for a single win is roughly $5 million. So, if Zito is to sustain his current performance of 1.85 wins per season over the next three seasons he’ll be worth approximately $9.25 million per season. He’ll be worth about $37 million over the next four seasons versus the $64.5 million he’s owed ($18.5 in 2011, $39 million 2012-2013 and a $7 mill buyout in 2014).

Maybe $37 million is giving him too much credit. What we should probably do is inflate the going rate per win by around five percent per season and decrease Zito’s worth by 0.5 wins per season over the life of his contract, as he’s likely to decrease in value as he ages.

Using that methodology, he’s worth about $23 million over the next four seasons ($9.25 mil, $7.09 mil, $4.69 mil and $2.03 mil). Compare that to the $64.5 million he’s owed.

Unless the Giants can get some team to bite into this hook for somewhere between $23 million to $37 million over the next 3-4 seasons, they should simply keep running him out there every fifth day and signing his checks until his value has vanished completely. Frankly, I don’t think there are any takers who are willing to pull over even close to that much of his contract.

As to the notion that the Giants are entertaining the idea of making Jeff Suppan the fifth starter, I say… wow.

Suppan has been a below replacement starter over the past two seasons. He was worth -0.7 wins in 2009 and 0.0 wins in 2010. Over the past two seasons, he’s performed exactly as you might expect a non-roster invitee to perform. He’s not getting a major league deal because he’s not a major leaguer anymore. He’s someone you stuff in Triple-A in case one of your five starters goes down, or your fifth starter becomes unbearable which is often the case two months into the season.

The Giants have close to zero organizational depth in terms of starting pitching right about now. It’s not that they don’t have intriguing pieces on the farm, they do. Eric Surkamp, for example, may well someday be a serviceable starter in the rotation. Zack Wheeler could be another No.1 type starter. That being said, these two aren’t close to contributing in San Francisco. Neither is Clayton Tanner, who Jenkins mentions. He’s likely a replacement starter at this point, at best.

Should the Giants cut Zito loose, they’ll be out 1-2 wins and will be further depleting their starting pitching depth, something they already sorely lack.

The Giants have every right to be frustrated, they really do. But they should be frustrated with themselves, not Zito. They signed the guy when the industry-wide consensus was that he simply wasn’t the top-tier starter he was being paid to be. Once upon a time, Zito was a very good pitcher when throwing for the green and gold. He was never great, despite the Cy Young award in 2002.

“Motivating” Zito by threatening to cut him loose at this point makes little sense to me. I truly believe his inability to meet expectations is due to one thing: He can’t. It’s the same reason he doesn’t throw 90 miles per hour: He can’t. The expectations that his contract placed upon him were ridiculous. They were in the winter of 2006, they remain so today.

Give it a rest.

The Giants bought a flank steak and paid for a filet. It’s now chewy and they are outraged. They can blame the server as long and as loudly as they’d like, but they ought to have spent a little longer reading the menu.

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This article was linked on Baseball Think Factory

Pressing Giants questions...

… like: What’s Buster Posey’s favorite food? And: Why doesn’t Barry Zito throw harder?

These questions are particularly burning because people sought answers to them and found my site in lieu of what they were seeking. At least that’s what my fancy Blogger “Stats” told me. Unfortunate, I know.

I guess I’ll give it my best in the event these two – unless, it was one person with each of these pertinent, brilliant questions – return for the answer. You know, because maybe each of them is a glass half full type.

So, what is Buster’s favorite food… in the whole wide world? I think this is fairly obvious, but we’ve already headed down this path so…

Posey’s favorite food is belt-high fastballs on the outer half of the plate. As Brian Wilson would say: Posey finds them particularly delicious.

Finally: Why doesn’t Zito throw harder? Great question. Simple answer. He can’t.

Ok, so maybe those weren’t the answers they were looking for. You just can’t please everyone. But for those of you that found this an utterly ridiculous waste of time, I do have some recourse.

Brandon Belt had three hits in his first start this spring today. He punched a single to center to score Travis Ishikawa. Then, directly following that and displaying his athleticism, he scored from first on a hit-and-run double by Brad Eldred. Later, he smashed a three-run double to right center field. For an encore, he clubbed an opposite-field double off of the base of the left-center field wall. So there’s that. Delicious.

Notice how I didn’t say he “belted” any of those pitches? I’ll refrain for now. Personally, I prefer to hear Duane Kuiper bellow that when he hits his first big league home run.

Revisiting Zito's Contract

When decisions are made during times of desperation, the results are rarely pretty.

In the 2006 offseason, the Giants were determined to sign a big-time free agent bat. They offered deals upwards of $100 million to two players, but couldn’t coax either Carlos Lee or Alfonso Soriano to head to San Francisco. In hindsight, this ended up being a very good thing, in that neither Lee nor Soriano are particularly useful any longer, if at all; except that, having failed in their endeavor to sign them, the Giants pulled the trigger on another ill-advised deal: they signed Barry Zito.

There wasn’t really anything wrong with Zito as a Major League starter at the time, nor really is there now. The problem was this: they gave him the richest contract for a pitcher in baseball history, i.e. 7 years for a total of $126 million, and an option for an eighth season for another $18 million (or otherwise a $7 million buyout).

Zito was never an elite pitcher, despite wining the AL Cy Young award in 2002. His best season actually came in his first full campaign, when he finished with 5.0 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) in 2001. But that season he struck out 8.61 batters per nine innings. and he would never again approach that. He was always more of a finesse lefty, and one who walked his fair share of batters. As his fastball velocity slowly eroded, so did his value. After his 2002 Cy Young season, he never again posted a FIP (fielding independent pitching) beneath 4.00 (it was 3.87 in ’02). His WAR went from that 5.0 in 2001, to 4.4, to 4.3, to 3.2, to 3.0, and to 2.1 in 2006, his last season with the Athletics.

And then the Giants made him the richest pitcher in history, despite these obvious signs of his steady decline.

Surkamp to sink or swim in 2011

First off, as far as prospects go: it’s very important not to get too hung up on where a player is ranked on each list. Usually, the top two or three guys fall into at least a similar order on most lists. For example, every list coming out will have Brandon Belt -- here's a video of him hitting -- atop the heap for the Giants. But beyond that, there’s very little consensus in terms of placing each player in the exact same order.

There’s no doubt that some part of the ebb and flow of prospects lists is due to the biases of the pupils that produce them. A prospect maven that has been burned (completely wrong) on a certain type of prospect over and over again, i.e. multiple players with the same skill set, is likely to be more cautious with their ranking in the future, and certainly more apprehensive in giving them solid projections in the future. It’s very similar to what behavioral economists have observed in the stock market, that financial markets are often inefficient because consumers make biased decisions, often based on their personal experience in the market.

With that, I want to talk about Eric Surkamp. Here’s a guy that’s sure to stir up some debate. Back in early November, I threw a quick list of 10 together, and although I think I struck out by missing a few prospects worth mentioning, I'm pleased I placed Surkamp 10th. He’s cracked most lists at this point, but no one is yet sure where to place him. Baseball America placed him 19th last season in their 2010 Prospect Handbook, and their Top 10 Prospects list for 2011 will be available January 26. Fangraphs had one too few spots for him to rank on their Top 10 list. John Sickel’s placed him 12th on his list of the Top 20 Giants Prospects, calling him an "intriguing finesse lefty." And Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus had this to say about him: Surkamp “…has a plus curve ball and good change…” and “[he’s] not a future All-Star, but [he likely] is a future big leaguer, and likely a back-end rotation starter at that.”

Game 4 Starter...

...if the Giants are up 2-1, i.e. they don't sweep and aren't down 2-1.

The potential game 4 starter for the NLDS between the Giants and Braves has roster implications. Why? Madison Bumgarner is likely to make the roster regardless of whether or not he gets the nod from Bochy. On the other hand, if Barry Zito does not get the nod, the likelihood he makes the 25-man is far less assured. With the weapons Atlanta has – Heyward, McCann and Hinske – a pen with a few lefties seems like a swell idea. But something tells me that Affeldt and Runzler would be far more effective in relief situations than Zito.

So who should get the start? I think most, if not every single fan, would say that it should be the kid: Bumgarner. But with the money Zito’s making there are some unfair biases, probably, and certainly some unjust hatred – it’s not his fault Sabean or McGowan thought he was an ace.

The Breakdown (with an assist on stats from Fangraphs):

Barry Zito logged about 198 innings as a starter. During those innings, he accumulated a WAR of 2.1 or 2.1 per 200 innings. He struck out 6.77 per 9/IP and walked 3.79 (ratio 1.79). His final WHIP was 1.34 and he yielded .90 HR/9. His .285 BABIP was near his career average (.276). He induced a ground ball only 36.1% of the time. His ERA was a respectable 4.15 and his FIP finished at 4.25. He was able to do all of this with an 85.7 MPH fastball – which was declining throughout the season – and averaging almost exactly 6 innings per start. All in all, Zito was a serviceable major league starter if stored at the back end of a rotation.

After being promoted, Madison Bumgarner logged 111 innings, during which he collected a WAR of 2.0 or at a rate of 3.6 per 200 innings. Bumgarner punched out batters at a pretty insignificantly higher rate than Zito, 6.97 (i.e. +.20 per 9 IP). But – and this is a huge but – he walked only 2.11 per 9 IP (K/BB ratio of 3.31). This is significant, especially when you consider a huge strength of the Braves, i.e. their ability to walk at a high clip – over 10% of the time. His WHIP is slightly better at 1.31, and also his HR/9 (.89). Other factors which I believe bode well for him, and legitimize his worthiness for the nod, are his BABIP and ground ball rate. Madison has given up a .322 average on balls in play, significantly higher than that of Zito. We don’t have enough data to understand where his true talent level is in terms of BABIP, but I’d venture to say it will probably end up closer to league average or around .300. Perhaps he’s been just a bit unlucky. He’s also been significantly better at getting the ground ball (45.1%). His final ERA was a really nice 3.00 and his FIP 3.66, all while averaging 91.3 MPH fastball velocity and at increasing rates as the season neared its end. Lastly, he averaged 6.17 innings per start (just ½ a batter more than Zito).

In this case, the fans have it exactly right. The way in which they arrived at their decision for the Game 4 starter was more than likely decidedly different, but no matter.

One small consideration may be the added innings to Bumgarner’s young arm. I don’t think this will be a factor in their decision, though. We’re talking about maybe 3 starts if the Giants go to the World Series, and thus a maximum of eighteen (18) innings or so. If they were going to back off the kid – whom is throwing better and harder now than at any point this season, I should point out – they would have already. As management knows, fans know, and players – especially Aubrey Huff – postseason doesn’t necessarily come around all that often, and when it does, you need to strike when the iron is hot.

If I’m Bochy, I’m taking Bum’s ability to throw strikes over Zito’s prior playoff experience.*

* Without Zito, all four starters would be making their postseason debuts.

UPDATE: Bruce Bochy acknowledged that the game four starter would either be Bum or Lincecum, depending on whether the Giants were up or down in the series.  Phew!