NL West 2011 ZiPS Projections

I have to admit, there’s almost nothing I can think of that’s interesting enough to write about right now regarding the Giants. I mean, I could talk about their potential sixth starter (few options here, Dan Runzler?) or their middle-infield depth (Ryan Rohlinger and Emmanuel Burriss). But if I did I would probably fall asleep at my laptop.

The Giants don’t appear to have anything interesting in the works, so I’ll just have to get a lot more creative and soon. Until then, I’ll provide a few Giants-related links and my thoughts on them:

Fangraphs’ list of Top 10 Prospects: San Francisco Giants

I did my own list a while back, see here, and Fangraphs and I agreed on 8 of 10 players, though in somewhat different order. I like the list they compiled, and I especially enjoyed their mention of Eric Surkamp who "narrowly missed" the list. I had him at no. 10 as my "sleeper pick."

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Dan Szymborski’s 2011 ZiPS Projections for the Giants (Dan: "ZiPS is more bullish on the Giants offense than it has been in years..."

I fooled with the projections a bit and tried to put together a reasonable season of at bats - I basically scaled all of the projections down to a similar number of at bats for 2011 to their 2010 total - and got to 800 runs. Now, projections are just that, projections. But the mere fact that Dan's system likes them this year better than it has in years is excellent news. The 800 runs is obviously wildly optimistic, but the fact that I got to that many runs (using the Runs Created formula) without fussing with it much, is awesome.

Also: the 2011 ZiPS Projections for the Colorado Rockies (Dan: "They can't match the Giants starters, but the Rockies are more prepared for injuries to pitchers than San Francisco is and it should be an exciting divisional race…")

I see the Rockies, with their strong offense anchored by Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez and good pitching depth with Ubaldo Jimenez leading them, as the biggest threat to the Giants.
...

Los Angeles Dodgers (Dan: "...a good rotation gives LA as good a shot at the division as any of the other teams…"

The Dodgers dropped all the way to below .500 last season after going to back-to-back NLCS'. They still have very good starting pitching, especially if Clayton Kershaw continues to develop into an Ace. And if Matt Kemp gets back to where he was in 2009, they might start rolling again with a little luck, a little health, and a decent mid-season acquisition or two. No one should write them off.
...

San Diego Padres (Dan: "The way the season ended was extremely disappointing, but the Padres should still come away from the 2010 season pleased with how the team performed.")

They probably won't be as strong of a contender next season, but of course we've heard that before. Their special blend of a solid defense, shut-down bullpen, quality starting pitching -- Mat Latos is a formidable ballast -- and just-enough offense, wins games. It's especially effective in their offense muting ballpark. The question becomes, though, with the departure of Adrian Gonzalez, does their just-enough offense become: just-not-enough?
...

and Arizona Diamondbacks (Dan: “I'd still put them below .500, but they should at least get the win total back into the 70s.”)

The Diamondbacks have some starpower on their roster, most notably Justin Upton. While I agree with Dan here, that they likely won't contend in 2011, I also think they are probably a year or two away from it. Honestly, if they could have their bullpen improve from atrocious to average and add a decent starter or two,  they'd almost instantly be in the mix.

Prospect Season in Progress

Baseball America’s Top 10 for 2010 (+ status / updates following season)

(1) Buster Posey: Graduated – RoY? – already has a World Series ring.
(2) Madison Bumgarner: Graduated, already huge contributor
(3) Zack Wheeler: Fingernail issue cost him development time in first professional campaign
(4) Thomas Neal: Struggled mightily in AA, had a much better second half. 2010 = make or break year
(5) Dan Runzler: Graduated, contributed out of pen in 2010; talks to make him starter
(6) Tommy Joseph: Hit 16 HR in Sally League (A). He’s got major power but contact is an issue.
(7) Roger Kieschnick: Battled injuries and turned in nightmare season at the plate, at a crossroads
(8) Ehire Adrianza: Turned in a solid season at A+ San Jose. His glove is great, but his bat is trailing.
(9) Brandon Crawford: Again struggled with bat in AA. He hurt his wrist and missed key develop. time.
(10) Francisco Peguero: 5-tool threat turned in a pretty outstanding season, question is plate discipline

My Crack at Top 10 for 2011

(1) Brandon Belt (1B):

Belt isn’t just one of the Giants’ hottest prospects – he’s their best prospect, by far – he’s also one of the hottest prospects in all of baseball. He’s in the conversation with the very best first base prospects in baseball, along with Freddie Freeman (ATL) and Eric Hosmer (KC). Belt was drafted in just the fifth round in 2009 out of Texas. The Giants immediately rebuilt his swing – Belt had been mostly a pitcher throughout his young life, being drafted twice as a pitcher before the Giants took him – and he was ready and willing. The results were astounding. Across three levels (A+, AA, AAA), Belt crushed 23 HR, with a .352 AVG, .455 OBP, .620 SLG (1.075 OPS). He walked 93 times and struck out 99, almost a 1:1 ratio. He’s also not just a bat as he’s rumored to be slick around the bag. If the Giants fail to resign Huff, Belt can step in right away. In fact, an argument can be made the Giants should make the switch by inserting Belt and letting Huff walk – getting a draft pick in the process. This could save them money to fill holes where prospect isn’t ready to step in, specifically shortstop. Belt is currently sharpening his skills in the Arizona Fall League and putting up great numbers and showing an outstanding approach.

(2) Zack Wheeler (RHP):

Zack hurt his fingernail in 2010 and really didn’t pitch as much as the Giants would have liked. When he did pitch, he was able to miss a lot of bats but walked far too many batters. Despite the set back from what I’ve read, his ceiling remains a top of the line starter.

(3) Gary Brown (CF):

The Giants draftEd Brown in the first round out of Cal State Fullerton. He’s extremely athletic and fast on both the base paths as well as in CF – he’s likely to be a plus center fielder. He probably won’t hit for much power in the major leagues but should have enough pop to hit gaps and allow him to run for extra bases. He showed almost no plate discipline in college ball so this will be his biggest obstacle, he’ll need to draw more walks or hit for a very high average on balls in play, or preferably both.

(4) Tommy Joseph (C):

See above.

(5) Charlie Culberson (2B):

Culberson was highly regarded coming out of the high school, but fizzled in his first couple of professional seasons. He had a solid campaign hitting in San Jose to put him back on the prospect map. Scouts really like his bat and see him as a solid prospect, but his glove leaves something to be desired. He’s currently destroying the Arizona Fall League, but what’s more important is that scouts like what they are seeing – i.e. it’s not a complete fluke.

(6) Francisco Peguero (CF):

See above.

(7) Ehire Adrianza (SS):

See above.

(8) Brandon Crawford (SS):

See above.

(9) Thomas Neal (LF):

See above.

(10) Eric Surkamp (LHP):

Surkamp is my sleeper pick. He’s missed plenty of bats but hurt his hip in July of 2010. Luckily it wasn’t an arm injury, but it was obviously serious enough to keep him out for the rest of the season. It’s unclear if he’ll jump to AA or repeat in A-Advanced.

Didn’t make it: Roger Kieschnick (RF), Darren Ford (CF), Craig Clark (LHP), Clayton Tanner (LHP)

What I'm reading...

Here are some links on what I've read and loved recently:

Baseball Prospectus sat down with Jack Zduriencik and gave an awesome interview shedding a little bit of light on the Mariners' (Zduriencik's) new philosophies.

Carson Cistulli of FanGraphs is very excited about Daniel Nava, the first pick of his developing All-Joy team.  This is interesting because I myself have faced (pitched against) Nava while playing for DeAnza College.  He was an incredibly tough out back then.  See us both here on the 2005 All-Conference Team.
 
An older link written by Rob Neyer on why Tim Raines should easily walk into the Halll of Fame.
 
This has been out since the end of November, but here are the Giants Top 10 Prospects according to Baseball America.
 
And...
 
A 4 part series by the newest author on FanGraphs (Bryan Smith) which he posit's "...that no type of minor leaguer is typically as undervalued as the right-handed sinker-slider brigade,..."
 
Part 1
Part 2
Part 3
Final Part

Did Lincecum camp bait Giants?

There were some rumors swirling around the internet that some baseball experts fathomed Tim Lincecum might request around $20 mil via arbitration. Mlbtraderumors reported that MLB.coim’s Doug Miller said that whispers of a $20 mil arbitration award “echoed loudly throughout baseball.” This is completely and utterly ludicrous. No one with any common sense or knowledge of the business of baseball in their right mind would have truly believed that Lincecum would request such a large sum in his first year of arbitration. To do so would have ensured that the teams (the Giants’) figure would have been selected during the hearing.

They did exchange figures today and Lincecum is requesting the more reasonable sum of $13 mil and the Giants have requested that $8 mil be their Ace’s 2010 salary. The wide belief among FanGraph’s voters yesterday was that Lincecum would submit a $14-15 mil salary. And just yesterday, I surmised that both Lincecum and the Giants would both submit numbers between $12 mil and $16 mil. I was right about Tim and wrong about the Giants. My first thoughts were: “The Giants lowballed Tim and he’s going to win easily.” This was my gut reaction.

After a while I began to believe that neither the figure Lincecum requested nor that of the Giants is that outlandish. You can make an argument for both. I must admit that I was somewhat armed with the knowledge that 1st year arbitration players usually receive about 40% of their free agent market value having read Jack Moore's post on FanGraphs. So, you could probably hypothesize Lincecum would make at least $18 mil were he a free agent. I’d argue he would command a salary more like that of C.C. Sabbathia who is getting $23 mil a year from the Bronx Bombers. If that were the case, 40% of his market value would be $9.2 mil. If his value were $18 mil, we get $7.2. So, if the 40% estimate holds true the Giants have a decent case and may well win during the arbitration hearing. Then again, they may not.

Why? Before the 2008 season Ryan Howard filed for a record $10 mil while the Phillies countered with $7 mil. Howard had a Rookie of the Year and MVP trophy under his belt and won his arbitration case. One has to ask the question. Which is more valuable? A RoY and MVP or back to back Cy Young’s? I have to believe the Cy Young’s are because one Cy Young is certainly more valuable than one RoY and Lincecum proved to be the most dominant pitcher in the NL (and arguably in all of baseball) in back to back years. Furthermore, Lincecum has performed so incredibly on a quite poor 2008 team and a decent while not dominant 2009 team whereas Howard’s teammates afford him a clearer way to pad his stats. For example, were it not for the Chase Utley constantly being on base in front of Howard he most certainly would not be racking up those extraordinary RBI numbers. The RBI, of course, being one of the main stats baseball traditionalists have sunk their claws into and are hanging on for dear life. Lastly, while there are a handful of slugging first baseman (not even counting the rest of the position players) in Pujols, Fielder, Gonzalez and Howard, it certainly seems to me there are fewer Tim Lincecum’s to go around and you’d probably have to pull them from both the AL and NL to come up with a list longer than one you can count on one hand. Lincecum is one of a kind in many cases, and performance wise, much more so than Howard.

I’ve developed somewhat of a theory (albeit probably a completely unverifiable one) on the psychology behind each of their (Tim’s and the Giants’) picks. First of all, I wondered why right off the bat the Giants would choose such a seemingly low number. $8 mil? Really? Had they not learned from the Howard case that such a lower number would certainly lose them their case? I then had this idea. Because there had been chatter that Lincecum might file a number as high as $23 mil, perhaps the Giants truly believed he would. And if he had the $8 mil would seem so much more reasonable than $20 mil. I assure you that the arbiter would choose $8 mil over $20 mil and it wouldn’t take him more than a moment to make a decision. I think it’s possible that the Lincecum camp baited the Giants into low balling their Ace so that they could file a record salary and win. Afterall, $13 mil would be the record setting salary for a 1st year eligible player in arbitration by 30% and I am sure Tim would be more than happy with it. And this is exactly what I believe will happen unless one of two things happen. 1) The Giants and Lincecum settle at a middle figure before the hearing or 2) now that they’ve exchanged figures they hammer out a long-term deal. What’s crazy in all this and worth noting, however, is that had the Giants waited just 2 weeks longer to promote Lincecum in 2007 they could have postponed his arbitration until next year. Which makes me wonder, who holds the record salary for a 1st year eligible super two? If anyone knows, give me the goods.

Check here for a list of all the figures players and teams exchanged today, including Brian Wilson ($4.85 mil vs. $4 mil)

UPDATE:
I guess Keith Law agress that Lincecum will win this case.  In fact, he believes they underfiled and probably finds the Giants' request of $8 mil ludicrous.

Keith Law

Lincecum's camp is making a mistake
"I'd like to see the arbitration brief that argues that Lincecum, a first-time-eligible, super-two free agent with two Cy Young Awards, should be paid less than Ryan Howard was as a first-time-eligible free agent with one MVP award. Not just less -- $2 million less. If anything, Lincecum's agents underfiled; his case was unprecedented and a number of $15-18 million would have been defensible." ESPN.com