Giants Free Agents (FA): Aubrey Huff, Juan Uribe, Pat Burrell
Out-of-House Available FA: Carl Crawford, Adrian Beltre, Jayson Werth, Victor Martinez, Adam Dunn, Johnny Damon, Carlos Pena, Lance Berkman
Early Trade Targets: David DeJesus, Dan Uggla, Jason Bartlett, Stephen Drew
The Giants won the World Series in 2010, and now I am reluctantly going to delve into what lay ahead for 2011. I’d very much like to bask in this longer but reality has set in. What’s more, all players became FA just five days after the World Series this year, effectively ending the period in which teams could exclusively negotiated with their own FA – I believe it had previously been a full 14 days – so it’s quite literally already open season. Mike Murphy had barely gotten a chance to finish the champagne soaked laundry – there’s zero doubt it smelled something horrid and yet something beautiful when he got around to it, drenched in equal parts sweat and victory, because Murphy had been doing the Giants’ laundry since they came to the City in 1958 and not once had his last load of the season been sopping with alcohol – when the heroes of the 2010 season like Pat Burrell and Aubrey Huff, and the heroes of the NLCS and World Series, Juan Uribe and MVP Edgar Renteria, became free agents.
And no sooner than could these players sit back, smile, and reflect on what they’d done, they were already being surveyed, their stats prodded and their futures discussed by the Giants’ front office. And who can blame them? It’s not a matter of, “What have you done for me lately?” It’s a matter of, “What can you do for me next year, and the year after?” Such is life in the business of baseball, when plan C first baseman put up MVP numbers for four months and finish a top 10 NL player on a slight salary of just $3 million, and former Cy Young award winning, $126 million dollar starters don’t even make the postseason roster.
PITCHING (STARTERS and PEN)
In terms of pitching, the Giants are the envy of pretty much every team in the Major Leagues. It was interesting to see the opposing teams fans and writers wonder, “Where did our hitters go?” all postseason long. They didn’t go anywhere; the Giants’ staff simply shut them down. They owe their World Series rings to this.
The Giants will throw out one of the best five-man rotations in baseball in 2011. Their top four are all homegrown – as everyone should be well aware of by now following the World Series – and are extraordinary in one or more of the most important factors to pitch effectively.
Lincecum is dominant and my pick to reclaim his Cy Young crown in 2011. He limits the long ball, decently keeps walks down and – armed with one of the best strikeout pitches in the game, his changeup – is the class of the Senior Circuit in terms of striking out batters (10.07/9 IP career). And the slider he showcased in September and October (and November) will only help him to sustain his dominance, along with a new found motivation to condition hard. Cain is a solid number two starter on this staff, and would be number one for more than a few franchises. He did substantially better at not walking batters in 2010 (2.46/9 IP) and continued to strike out batters at an above average rate (7.13/ 9). What’s more, he has held batters to a suspiciously low average on balls in play (.274 career BABiP). That’s a sample of over 1,000 innings and something tells me he’ll continue the trend. His fly ball style works well in AT&T, but he pitches well on the road, too. Twenty-one year old Madison Bumgarner will likely surpass Jonathan Sanchez as the next reliable starter. It looks like he’s going to strike out just enough batters (7.14/9 IP career), at worst, and continue to limit the long ball decently and walk very few (2.11/9 IP in ’10). He’s a very rare breed in that he is a funky, three-quarter lefty that throws across his body but manages to throw a pretty hard fastball (91.3 MPH average), and most miraculously, he’s a strike thrower. If his fastball stays where it’s at or even increases a tick, and he sharpens his changeup and slider as strikeout pitches, he may well reach his number one starter ceiling. The Giants’ fourth starter, Sanchez, has the ability to throw a no hitter on any given evening. He’s always going to walk too many batters but his ability to strike out so many batters (9.41/9 IP career) gets him out of trouble, making him one of the very best four starters in baseball.
And then there’s Barry Zito. When discussing him, it’s very important to take his contract ($126 million) and throw it out the window. If you’re able to do that, you’ll see that Zito is one of the best five starters in baseball and hasn’t missed a start since little league. He’s more than likely going to throw 200 or so mediocre innings and smile each time he checks his bank account. But when the rest of the league is playing “Eeny, meeny, miny, moe” at the end of Spring Training to pick a fifth starter, the Giants won’t be – and that’s worth something.
These five starters posted a combined WAR of 15.8 in 2010, or a 3.16 on average, and Bumgarner was only the fifth start for half the season. If he’d pitched 200 innings with similar numbers, he’d have finished with a WAR of 3.7, bringing the Giants’ 2010 rotations cumulative WAR to 17.5, or 3.5 on average. That would have been the equivalent of having the 2010 version of Johan Santana pitch each day – granted, not the Cy Young version – and something tells me that gives your ballclub a decent shot to win.
The Giants have a shutdown bullpen with lots of weapons. Brian Wilson (11.21 K/9, 3.13 BB/9, ratio 3.58, .36 HR/9, 2.19 FIP. 2.7 Wins Above Replacement) is the type of closer that everybody wants but no team really wants to pay for in terms of salary and draft picks, and for good reason. But much like the core of starters San Francisco has, he’s homegrown and developed and still relatively cheap, though he’ll go through arbitration once again this winter. He’s one of the best closers in the league. He’s fearless, throws strikes, gets lots of punch outs and rarely gives up dingers. Romo will continue to spin Frisbee sliders, strike out batters and throw tons of strikes (10.16 K/9 and 5.0 K/BB). The Giants will have three decent lefties in Lopez, Runzler and Affeldt, though there’s some talk to make Runzler a starter. And they’ll have Santiago Casilla back as well, with the option to retain Chris Ray and Ramon Ramirez to round out the bullpen. Sabean will have very little worrying to do over his arms. And given the volatility of relievers, Sabean will have a few interesting and somewhat promising arms to pick from in the minor leagues.
OFFENSE (and DEFENSE)
I feel very confident in saying the Giants are comfortably set at 4 of 8 everyday positions. They will have NL Rookie of the Year Buster Posey – I hope; not that he will be there, he will be, but that he’ll be reining NL RoY – as catcher for 2011 and far, far beyond. They will have Andres Torres (who is arbitration eligible) in center field and batting leadoff. Hopefully, he continues to stay healthy and put up Wins Above Replacement (WAR) north of 4.0, because I think it’d be greedy to hope he repeats his 6.0 WAR from 2010. The Giants will return second baseman Freddy Sanchez and hope for a full season of quality defense and streaky offense. The Giants will also more than likely place NLCS Most Valuable Player, Cody Ross, in right field. His October heroics notwithstanding, Ross was an average hitter in 2008 and 2009 but struggled in 2010. He’s averaged a decent 2 Wins Above Replacement the past two seasons. He has a little bit of pop and can play above average D in either corner outfield spot, including within the tricky AT&T, as well as fill in at center field without hurting the team too much.
Third base is a position that is a question mark at this point. It’s hard to imagine the Giants might have an MVP caliber player at the position, or if not, a player that can’t play the position defensively or carry his weight with the bat. But then that’s the exact position they’re in. If Pablo Sandoval was able to make the necessary lifestyle changes and get himself into shape, he could easily be the middle of the order bat he was in 2009. If not, he could easily find himself as a bench player or a minor leaguer trying to claw his way back to the show. It’s probably also not out of the question for the Giants to move Pablo to a team willing to take the risk on him and give something valuable in return. I’ll bet the Diamondbacks would take Pablo for Stephen Drew, and the Giants sure need a shortstop. But this is the type of trade you hate to do, because Pablo could very well return to form and terrorize them for the next 8-10 years for an in-division team. Another possibility would be moving Panda for Dan Uggla. That would be assuming Uggla doesn’t take an extension from Florida – he already turned down 4 years, $48 million – and that would potentially be an awful lot to give up for a free agent to be.
The Giants have three positions that need to be filled by free agents or in-house options. One such position is left field. Pat Burrell could return but likely isn’t an everyday player any longer. The Giants also have Mark DeRosa returning from wrist surgery, but it’d be more than foolish to assume he can immediately return to being a quality player and meaningful presence in the lineup. I like him better as a super-utility type. The FA market contains Carl Crawford (.378 wOBA, 19 HR, 47 SB, 6.9 WAR)*, Jayson Werth and Johnny Damon among others. Crawford would fit beautifully into the Giants’ lineup and immediately make their pitchers even better with breathtaking outfield defense (to go with Torres and Ross); very few balls would be dropping. He’d very easily slide right into the three spot in the order, instantly making the Giants more athletic while providing extra base power and installing a huge stolen base threat. But, in all likelihood Crawford will be too expensive – he’ll likely take home greater than $100 million – for the Giants to stomach and will sign elsewhere.
*Crawford is sort of a 1992, Barry Bonds lite. He has power (though not as much). He gets on base (though not as much). He can steal 40 bases. He plays remarkable defense in left field. He’s very, very similar to pre-juiced Barry Bonds, though very obviously not on the same level. But who is?
Jayson Werth does a lot of things the Giants could use. He could slip into right field and middle of the order, making room for Ross in left. He hits for power, runs the bases well, is patient and is a good defender. That being said, he apparently hates hitting at AT&T and the Giants prefer a left handed bat. He’ll command a Jason Bay like contact of 4 years, $60 million as a floor and have lots of action from teams like the Red Sox. Furthermore, he’s had some pretty significant splits while hitting in the hitter haven Citizens Bank Park. Having witnessed the enormous drop off of Aaron Rowand first hand, it seems unlikely the Giants would go back to the stove after being burned once. Both Werth and Crawford would cost them their first round draft pick.
It seems likely the Giants would at least explore a trade for David DeJesus again. DeJesus was injured just before the deadline in 2010, and apparently, the Giants were somewhat close to acquiring him at the time. I have little doubt the Giants would wait to see DeJesus in the spring to see how he’s recovering from the torn thumb ligament before pulling the trigger on such a trade. Also, like Uggla, he’ll be a free agent after the 2011 season and thus a hefty price in prospects would likely deter Brian Sabean and the ownership.
The Giants also have a hole to fill at shortstop, and it won’t be easily patched. The Giants’ only in-house options are Brandon Crawford and Ehire Adrianza, and neither is ready. Crawford probably isn’t going to hit enough at the major league level but is a good defender. He hurt himself midseason in 2010 and really hasn’t hit at all since reaching AA before the All-Star break in 2009. Adrianza has moved up a level in each of the last two seasons – he’ll likely start in AA in 2010 – but isn’t near ready with the bat. He may one day be an eight-hole hitter and fantastic defender, but he’s at least a year away.
The Giants’ best option might be potentially departing, NLCS hero, Juan Uribe. Uribe is a plus defender at third but just average at shortstop. He doesn’t have the speed and quickness to field the position and, making matters worse, has shown some wear and tear while playing every day the past season and a half. He often makes up for lack of quickness with a strong arm, but it’s not nearly enough to make him a great defender. Offensively, he will do enough to justify his defense. He can really run into mistakes and hit 24 homeruns in 2010. He’s an all or nothing type hitter and doesn’t get on base nearly enough, making him a frustrating hitter to watch when he’s slumping.
He may well be the best option because the market is barren otherwise. Orlando Cabrera, Cesar Izturis, the Giants’ own Edgar Renteria, Miguel Tejada, Adam Everett and Cristian Guzman head a lackluster class. The Giants’ best option is probably to sign Uribe and hope for the best. Otherwise, I think the Giants will probably have to acquire something via trade. I really like Stephen Drew and would imagine he could be had, but the price would likely be steep.
Finally, the Giants need a first baseman and they and Aubrey Huff have a mutual interest to hook back up, but Huff has every right to explore the FA market. This will be his last chance to earn some bread for his family (and new baby). If Huff is offered something beyond 2 years from another organization, the Giants should move on. Why? Because the Giants have one of the best first base prospects – see my previous post – in Brandon Belt. They could easily slide Belt in now if absolutely necessary, or at worst, sign someone like Lance Berkman to fill in as long as he’s mildly productive and healthy (and cheap). Belt will cost league minimum and is receiving rave reviews from scouts in the Arizona Fall League. If they went this route, they could save money for a big splash acquisition like Carl Crawford. This is unfortunately one of those things where the Giants have to be careful to not get nostalgic with a player that helped bring them their first World Series Championship after 52, often painful years in the City by the Bay. Huff had a career year, forgive me for saying this, but let’s maybe quit while we’re ahead on this one.
QUICK NOTES
Other big names out there Victor Martinez, Carlos Pena, Adam Dunn and Adrian Beltre. Martinez would be an interesting addition. Stick with me here. Martinez could slide into a starting role at first base and play catcher when Posey needs a rest. This would make for an interesting situation where the Giants could forego keeping a backup catcher – meaning the punchless Eli Whiteside – and keep both hitters in the lineup every day. Unfortunately, I think Martinez will command too many years and he would only block Brandon Belt. The same blocking logic goes for Carlos Pena and Adam Dunn. Adrian Beltre put up MVP like overall numbers for Boston while hitting both at home and on the road. His premier defense and solid bat will probably net him the 3-4 year deal he was seeking last winter. He’d be an interesting sign for the Giants in that he could man third and push Pablo over to first, where his glove would play better. But, again, this would only block a productive hitter in Brandon Belt one way or the other eventually. Belt, Beltre and Sandoval would simply be one too many corner infielders. The final wild card in this regard, though, is that the Giants have toyed with Belt in the outfield. But his future is at first base, or at least should be.
The Giants have a difficult offseason ahead. Figuring out what to do with Pablo Sandoval is going to give them a headache all winter long. If Uribe bolts (and even if he doesn’t), shortstop is going to try the Giants’ intelligence (and Lady Luck). They have so many pieces to get right back into the playoffs in 2011. But, mark my words, if mistakes are made on contracts and player personnel and the Giants are struggling in 2011, the reprieve from ridicule and conditional, sincere love for Brian Sabean will disappear like seashells from a vicious beach, and there will be plenty of venom for Razor and Mr. T, F.P. Santangelo, and Marty Lurie on KNBR 680 to wade through again. Such is the nature of sports, and especially of sports talk radio.
Stats provided by Fangraphs
Insightful baseball analysis for the casual crowd, Moneyball masses and you, the Third and King crew
Monday, November 8, 2010
Prospect Season in Progress
Baseball America’s Top 10 for 2010 (+ status / updates following season)
(1) Buster Posey: Graduated – RoY? – already has a World Series ring.
(2) Madison Bumgarner: Graduated, already huge contributor
(3) Zack Wheeler: Fingernail issue cost him development time in first professional campaign
(4) Thomas Neal: Struggled mightily in AA, had a much better second half. 2010 = make or break year
(5) Dan Runzler: Graduated, contributed out of pen in 2010; talks to make him starter
(6) Tommy Joseph: Hit 16 HR in Sally League (A). He’s got major power but contact is an issue.
(7) Roger Kieschnick: Battled injuries and turned in nightmare season at the plate, at a crossroads
(8) Ehire Adrianza: Turned in a solid season at A+ San Jose. His glove is great, but his bat is trailing.
(9) Brandon Crawford: Again struggled with bat in AA. He hurt his wrist and missed key develop. time.
(10) Francisco Peguero: 5-tool threat turned in a pretty outstanding season, question is plate discipline
My Crack at Top 10 for 2011
(1) Brandon Belt (1B):
Belt isn’t just one of the Giants’ hottest prospects – he’s their best prospect, by far – he’s also one of the hottest prospects in all of baseball. He’s in the conversation with the very best first base prospects in baseball, along with Freddie Freeman (ATL) and Eric Hosmer (KC). Belt was drafted in just the fifth round in 2009 out of Texas. The Giants immediately rebuilt his swing – Belt had been mostly a pitcher throughout his young life, being drafted twice as a pitcher before the Giants took him – and he was ready and willing. The results were astounding. Across three levels (A+, AA, AAA), Belt crushed 23 HR, with a .352 AVG, .455 OBP, .620 SLG (1.075 OPS). He walked 93 times and struck out 99, almost a 1:1 ratio. He’s also not just a bat as he’s rumored to be slick around the bag. If the Giants fail to resign Huff, Belt can step in right away. In fact, an argument can be made the Giants should make the switch by inserting Belt and letting Huff walk – getting a draft pick in the process. This could save them money to fill holes where prospect isn’t ready to step in, specifically shortstop. Belt is currently sharpening his skills in the Arizona Fall League and putting up great numbers and showing an outstanding approach.
(2) Zack Wheeler (RHP):
Zack hurt his fingernail in 2010 and really didn’t pitch as much as the Giants would have liked. When he did pitch, he was able to miss a lot of bats but walked far too many batters. Despite the set back from what I’ve read, his ceiling remains a top of the line starter.
(3) Gary Brown (CF):
The Giants draftEd Brown in the first round out of Cal State Fullerton. He’s extremely athletic and fast on both the base paths as well as in CF – he’s likely to be a plus center fielder. He probably won’t hit for much power in the major leagues but should have enough pop to hit gaps and allow him to run for extra bases. He showed almost no plate discipline in college ball so this will be his biggest obstacle, he’ll need to draw more walks or hit for a very high average on balls in play, or preferably both.
(4) Tommy Joseph (C):
See above.
(5) Charlie Culberson (2B):
Culberson was highly regarded coming out of the high school, but fizzled in his first couple of professional seasons. He had a solid campaign hitting in San Jose to put him back on the prospect map. Scouts really like his bat and see him as a solid prospect, but his glove leaves something to be desired. He’s currently destroying the Arizona Fall League, but what’s more important is that scouts like what they are seeing – i.e. it’s not a complete fluke.
(6) Francisco Peguero (CF):
See above.
(7) Ehire Adrianza (SS):
See above.
(8) Brandon Crawford (SS):
See above.
(9) Thomas Neal (LF):
See above.
(10) Eric Surkamp (LHP):
Surkamp is my sleeper pick. He’s missed plenty of bats but hurt his hip in July of 2010. Luckily it wasn’t an arm injury, but it was obviously serious enough to keep him out for the rest of the season. It’s unclear if he’ll jump to AA or repeat in A-Advanced.
Didn’t make it: Roger Kieschnick (RF), Darren Ford (CF), Craig Clark (LHP), Clayton Tanner (LHP)
(1) Buster Posey: Graduated – RoY? – already has a World Series ring.
(2) Madison Bumgarner: Graduated, already huge contributor
(3) Zack Wheeler: Fingernail issue cost him development time in first professional campaign
(4) Thomas Neal: Struggled mightily in AA, had a much better second half. 2010 = make or break year
(5) Dan Runzler: Graduated, contributed out of pen in 2010; talks to make him starter
(6) Tommy Joseph: Hit 16 HR in Sally League (A). He’s got major power but contact is an issue.
(7) Roger Kieschnick: Battled injuries and turned in nightmare season at the plate, at a crossroads
(8) Ehire Adrianza: Turned in a solid season at A+ San Jose. His glove is great, but his bat is trailing.
(9) Brandon Crawford: Again struggled with bat in AA. He hurt his wrist and missed key develop. time.
(10) Francisco Peguero: 5-tool threat turned in a pretty outstanding season, question is plate discipline
My Crack at Top 10 for 2011
(1) Brandon Belt (1B):
Belt isn’t just one of the Giants’ hottest prospects – he’s their best prospect, by far – he’s also one of the hottest prospects in all of baseball. He’s in the conversation with the very best first base prospects in baseball, along with Freddie Freeman (ATL) and Eric Hosmer (KC). Belt was drafted in just the fifth round in 2009 out of Texas. The Giants immediately rebuilt his swing – Belt had been mostly a pitcher throughout his young life, being drafted twice as a pitcher before the Giants took him – and he was ready and willing. The results were astounding. Across three levels (A+, AA, AAA), Belt crushed 23 HR, with a .352 AVG, .455 OBP, .620 SLG (1.075 OPS). He walked 93 times and struck out 99, almost a 1:1 ratio. He’s also not just a bat as he’s rumored to be slick around the bag. If the Giants fail to resign Huff, Belt can step in right away. In fact, an argument can be made the Giants should make the switch by inserting Belt and letting Huff walk – getting a draft pick in the process. This could save them money to fill holes where prospect isn’t ready to step in, specifically shortstop. Belt is currently sharpening his skills in the Arizona Fall League and putting up great numbers and showing an outstanding approach.
(2) Zack Wheeler (RHP):
Zack hurt his fingernail in 2010 and really didn’t pitch as much as the Giants would have liked. When he did pitch, he was able to miss a lot of bats but walked far too many batters. Despite the set back from what I’ve read, his ceiling remains a top of the line starter.
(3) Gary Brown (CF):
The Giants draftEd Brown in the first round out of Cal State Fullerton. He’s extremely athletic and fast on both the base paths as well as in CF – he’s likely to be a plus center fielder. He probably won’t hit for much power in the major leagues but should have enough pop to hit gaps and allow him to run for extra bases. He showed almost no plate discipline in college ball so this will be his biggest obstacle, he’ll need to draw more walks or hit for a very high average on balls in play, or preferably both.
(4) Tommy Joseph (C):
See above.
(5) Charlie Culberson (2B):
Culberson was highly regarded coming out of the high school, but fizzled in his first couple of professional seasons. He had a solid campaign hitting in San Jose to put him back on the prospect map. Scouts really like his bat and see him as a solid prospect, but his glove leaves something to be desired. He’s currently destroying the Arizona Fall League, but what’s more important is that scouts like what they are seeing – i.e. it’s not a complete fluke.
(6) Francisco Peguero (CF):
See above.
(7) Ehire Adrianza (SS):
See above.
(8) Brandon Crawford (SS):
See above.
(9) Thomas Neal (LF):
See above.
(10) Eric Surkamp (LHP):
Surkamp is my sleeper pick. He’s missed plenty of bats but hurt his hip in July of 2010. Luckily it wasn’t an arm injury, but it was obviously serious enough to keep him out for the rest of the season. It’s unclear if he’ll jump to AA or repeat in A-Advanced.
Didn’t make it: Roger Kieschnick (RF), Darren Ford (CF), Craig Clark (LHP), Clayton Tanner (LHP)
Wednesday, November 3, 2010
The San Francisco Giants are World Series Champions
Just before the World Series started, I put together my 3 Keys to the World Series. I can now say without hesitation that the Giants obliterated my loftiest expectations, and I’m thrilled. The Giants, quite frankly, handled the three “challenges” with flying colors throughout the entire series but perhaps never more beautifully than in glorious game 5.
My first key was to beat Cliff Lee once in the series. Apparently, this key was far too attainable so the Giants beat him twice, making him forever “Mortal Lee” in San Francisco. I even included the caveat that the Giants didn’t necessarily have to beat Lee, but merely battle him to a stalemate and get into the bullpen. Lee wasn’t really Lee in game 1 and they beat him easily. But in game 2, Lee was pitching like Lee, and yet somehow they – read World Series MVP and hero Edgar Renteria* – managed to hit a huge three-run jack and beat him at his best.
*It should be noted that of the many fantastic (and fortunate) occurrences for the Giants down the stretch and within this postseason, perhaps one of the most serendipitous was when Edgar Renteria completely snapped his biceps tendon in the NLDS versus the Braves. To that point, the tendon was injured but not completely torn and caused him pain. After that, he was able to let loose and it carried him through the rest of the postseason and eventually down Market Street.
My second key in the series was the Rangers’ speed. Again, they nailed it – the Rangers down that is. The Rangers’ leadoff hitter (and greatest stealer) Elvis Andrus finished the series with only a .300 OBP, 1 stolen base and 2 runs (both runs came in game 1). In the clincher, Andrus went 0-4 and basically did nothing. Furthermore, the Rangers were only successful 50% of the time on theft attempts (2/4) in the series, and had Renteria not dropped a ball they would have been 1/4.
My third and final key to the World Series was keeping soon-to-be AL MVP Josh Hamilton at bay, and boy did they ever. Hamilton terrorized the Yankees in the ALCS after a cool division series and he was a huge threat coming into the series. Hamilton hit one HR but it was only a solo shot in a game 3 but the Rangers were already likely to win. Otherwise, he was completely shut down. He hit just .100 with a single walk (.143 OBP), 3 strikeouts, and slugged .250 to push his series OPS (on base plus slugging percentage) to a minuscule .393. What’s more, he grounded into a double play. In the clincher, he went 0-4 with two punch outs for his worst and final game of the series.
All that being said, the biggest key to series went unsaid by me at the outset of the series: The Giants’ Pitching. This was the key to their success all along, and it will continue to take them wherever they go in the next few years. And of their top four starters who all pitched in this series, most of them brilliantly, and throughout the playoffs – Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez and Bumgarner – none shined brighter than Tim Lincecum on Monday night.
Game 5 Clincher
When they opened the broadcast on Monday night, they said it was clear and a bit cooler. Lincecum was on the bump, and it just had to be the night.
For a full six innings on November 1st, 2010, and really though out the entire game, we finally got to see the heavyweight pitching battle we’d been waiting to see since game 1 of the NLCS (Lincecum vs. Halladay), game 2 of the same matchup and Game 1 of the World Series (Lincecum versus Lee).
In the first, Lee dispatched the Giants relatively easily by striking out Torres, and sandwiching a nice first pitch swinging, opposite field single by Buster Posey between a harmless groundout to Sanchez and pop out to Cody Ross – who is still Boss, by the way. Lincecum retired the Rangers in order with just 13 pitches.
In the second, Lee retired the Giants in order but it took him 9 pitches to whiff Uribe, which may have been a sign of good things to come, especially when Burrell shortly thereafter put a good swing on a ball for what seemed like the first time since his 3-run job in game 2 of the NLDS. Lincecum, again, mowed through the Rangers and only needed 6 pitches to get through his frame after two first pitch outs to Vlad and Cruz – it was a quick U-turn and back to work for Lee.
In the third, Lee continued to pitch sharply and retired the side with relative ease with the exception of a single by Torres. Lincecum finally allowed a base runner in the third when he walked Moreland, but it didn’t much matter because he struck out the side while making David Murphy look ridiculous – with his old toy, the gnarly changeup – on three pitches, as well as his former battery mate Bengie Molina with his shiny new toy, a two-plane slider that Molina had never seen Lincecum throw before except for probably on video. So much for that supposed advantage.
In the fourth, Lee put the Giants down in order again but Posey took another 10 pitches out of him to open the inning before grounding out. It was a shame Posey’s swing came alive so late in the series when he belted the dinger off O’Day, because I’m sure the country would have loved to see him when he’s hot; they will soon enough. In the bottom half, Timmy finally gave up a hit but stranded the runner at first by striking out two more batters and receiving an excellent play by Renteria for a fielders choice out at second. It was looking like we were in for a long night. That would be assuming extra innings, of course, as the game was literally zooming along. Someone tweeted the commercial time was likely exceeding the actual baseball air time, and I think they may have been right.
In the fifth, the Giants caught probably the first break of the game. Kinsler made an outstanding play on a weakly hit ball but first baseman Moreland simply dropped the putout. Lee, undeterred, helped Burrell to continue his abysmal postseason and especially dreadful World Series by striking him out and then got the double play grounder out of Renteria to end the minor threat. Lincecum got two more weak groundouts in the fifth as well as striking out Murphy, again, who learned nothing from his previous at bat and retired in three pitches.
In the sixth, the Giants almost got their man. Lee punched out Rowand and got another ground out to retire Torres, but Sanchez – who was robbed by Lee with a nice catch on a liner up the middle earlier in the game – singled to center. Up came the dangerous Buster Posey. He drove a ball to deep right field and I screamed my patented “Get OUT! GET OUT!” Unfortunately, the ball landed in Cruz’s glove on the track and I was left with a hollow feeling and my 10 pound dog scared half to death – for the 40th time this month**. Lincecum gave up slightly better swings to the Rangers in the sixth, but the results were harmless as he stranded Moreland at first after a leadoff single with a couple of hard hit balls to center and groundout.
**Quick primer on my dog: He’s actually a 12 pound darling of a dog named Oscar – half Yorkie and half Shih Tzu – whom I wonderfully fell into when I met my lovely fiancé; he’s now half mine. He’d been getting a treat per run in the NLDS, half because it somehow became good “luck” amidst my many superstitions I began adopting one after the other during the series, and half in apology for the loud yelling. Anyway, I had to stop giving Oscar the treats because he had recently lost a pound – he’s supposed to be closer to an 11 or 10 pound dog than a 12 or 13 pound dog – but mostly because my beautiful fiancé told me to. Thankfully, the Giants won and the ritual stopped long before the 11 run outburst in game 1 of the World Series!
My prayers were answered in the seventh. Cody Ross went down 0 and 2 but singled to center. Juan Uribe started 0 and 2 but then singled to center – he literally made every hit count this postseason – bringing up the Giants’ best offensive player in 2010. Remarkably, Aubrey Huff laid down a perfect bunt for the first time in his career to advance the runners like he’d been doing it since 1993. After another brutal strikeout by Burrell, I believe his 11th in 12 World Series at bats – he would add a 12th in the ninth – the collective fan base of the Giants had to again start recalling Ashkon’s rendition of “Don’t Stop Believing.” After getting ahead 2 and 0, Renteria delivered a mistake cutter over the left center field fence for a game changing, history shattering, Ranger razing 3-run HR, bringing Giants fans to a fever pitch and my household into a hooting sh*t storm. I was literally shaking and struggled to text friends as I knew he’d just won the Giants the World Series. Lincecum gave up a solo homer to Cruz in the bottom half after the ump squeezed him on a should-be strike two, but after beginning to look a bit human and following that with a walk to Cruz and bringing the tying run to the dish, he struck out Murphy (again) and Molina (again) with his usual array of spinning, dizzying, gravity defying, air bending - not the M. Night Shyamalan kind - batter battering pitches.
In the eighth Ron Washington finally displayed understanding of how best and properly to use his closer and brought in Neftali Feliz. Feliz gave up an infield single to Posey but otherwise moved through the Giants quickly. Lincecum retired the side with his tenth strikeout of the game to open the bottom half and needed just 9 total pitches. Even with one of the very best, elite closers in the bullpen ready to go, I wondered if Bochy might let Lincecum*** finish it. He did not, which I felt was the correct move. And anyway, it was nice to see Lincecum show off his gymnastic athleticism as he gracefully leaped over the dugout barrier and attacked the mound to meet his battery mate and black-bearded savior.
***Lincecum’s line: 8 IP, 1 ER, 3 hits, 1 BB, 10 K’s.
Lincecum’s career pelts: 2 NL Cy Young awards, 3 NL All-star selections, 3 straight NL strikeout titles – joining only Spahn and Randy Johnson in the NL since WWII, and a World Series clinching win. The 9 teams that passed on him in 2006 are weeping somewhere right now and none more sobbingly than his hometown of Seattle.
Feliz tossed a couple of strikeouts in the ninth to give his team a shot and keep it close, but then they really didn’t have a shot anyway. The Giants’ feared and bearded closer came trotting in to end all the torture of 2010 and of the last 52 years for San Franciscans, and he had no intention of making it interesting this time. He struck Hamilton out with a belt high heater, looking. He got Guerrero to meekly ground out to short; I was suddenly grinning ear to ear. After going 3 and 2 to the dangerous, right-handed Nelson Cruz, Wilson never gave in and planted his filthy cutter in much the same spot of the plate he did to the left-handed Ryan Howard to clinch the Pennant. Unlike Howard, Nelson swung but missed as so many hitters had against Wilson before him, and the San Francisco Giants were World Series Champions for the first time in history, and I was – along with countless other fans, including my family and father who forged the passion for Giants baseball in my belly – smitten.
Willie Mays, Orlando Cepeda, Gaylord Perry, Will Clark, Barry Bonds, Jeff Kent, Juan Marichal, and Willie McCovey are all Giants greats, Hall of Famers, or will be – or at least should be, see Barry Bonds – Hall of Famers, but none of them won a World Series with the San Francisco version of the Orange and Black. But now Andres Torres, Freddy Sanchez, Cody Ross, Juan Uribe, Aaron Rowand, Edgar Renteria, Aubrey Huff, Pat Burrell, Javier Lopez – the greatest deadline deal of them all in 2010, even bigger than Cliff Lee as it all turned out – have. And though this team is filled with dazzling arms like Tim “The Franchise” Lincecum and budding young stars like Buster Posey, they brought home the hardware with a lineup largely assembled of guys no other team really wanted, and I would never have wanted it any other way.
My first key was to beat Cliff Lee once in the series. Apparently, this key was far too attainable so the Giants beat him twice, making him forever “Mortal Lee” in San Francisco. I even included the caveat that the Giants didn’t necessarily have to beat Lee, but merely battle him to a stalemate and get into the bullpen. Lee wasn’t really Lee in game 1 and they beat him easily. But in game 2, Lee was pitching like Lee, and yet somehow they – read World Series MVP and hero Edgar Renteria* – managed to hit a huge three-run jack and beat him at his best.
*It should be noted that of the many fantastic (and fortunate) occurrences for the Giants down the stretch and within this postseason, perhaps one of the most serendipitous was when Edgar Renteria completely snapped his biceps tendon in the NLDS versus the Braves. To that point, the tendon was injured but not completely torn and caused him pain. After that, he was able to let loose and it carried him through the rest of the postseason and eventually down Market Street.
My second key in the series was the Rangers’ speed. Again, they nailed it – the Rangers down that is. The Rangers’ leadoff hitter (and greatest stealer) Elvis Andrus finished the series with only a .300 OBP, 1 stolen base and 2 runs (both runs came in game 1). In the clincher, Andrus went 0-4 and basically did nothing. Furthermore, the Rangers were only successful 50% of the time on theft attempts (2/4) in the series, and had Renteria not dropped a ball they would have been 1/4.
My third and final key to the World Series was keeping soon-to-be AL MVP Josh Hamilton at bay, and boy did they ever. Hamilton terrorized the Yankees in the ALCS after a cool division series and he was a huge threat coming into the series. Hamilton hit one HR but it was only a solo shot in a game 3 but the Rangers were already likely to win. Otherwise, he was completely shut down. He hit just .100 with a single walk (.143 OBP), 3 strikeouts, and slugged .250 to push his series OPS (on base plus slugging percentage) to a minuscule .393. What’s more, he grounded into a double play. In the clincher, he went 0-4 with two punch outs for his worst and final game of the series.
All that being said, the biggest key to series went unsaid by me at the outset of the series: The Giants’ Pitching. This was the key to their success all along, and it will continue to take them wherever they go in the next few years. And of their top four starters who all pitched in this series, most of them brilliantly, and throughout the playoffs – Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez and Bumgarner – none shined brighter than Tim Lincecum on Monday night.
Game 5 Clincher
When they opened the broadcast on Monday night, they said it was clear and a bit cooler. Lincecum was on the bump, and it just had to be the night.
For a full six innings on November 1st, 2010, and really though out the entire game, we finally got to see the heavyweight pitching battle we’d been waiting to see since game 1 of the NLCS (Lincecum vs. Halladay), game 2 of the same matchup and Game 1 of the World Series (Lincecum versus Lee).
In the first, Lee dispatched the Giants relatively easily by striking out Torres, and sandwiching a nice first pitch swinging, opposite field single by Buster Posey between a harmless groundout to Sanchez and pop out to Cody Ross – who is still Boss, by the way. Lincecum retired the Rangers in order with just 13 pitches.
In the second, Lee retired the Giants in order but it took him 9 pitches to whiff Uribe, which may have been a sign of good things to come, especially when Burrell shortly thereafter put a good swing on a ball for what seemed like the first time since his 3-run job in game 2 of the NLDS. Lincecum, again, mowed through the Rangers and only needed 6 pitches to get through his frame after two first pitch outs to Vlad and Cruz – it was a quick U-turn and back to work for Lee.
In the third, Lee continued to pitch sharply and retired the side with relative ease with the exception of a single by Torres. Lincecum finally allowed a base runner in the third when he walked Moreland, but it didn’t much matter because he struck out the side while making David Murphy look ridiculous – with his old toy, the gnarly changeup – on three pitches, as well as his former battery mate Bengie Molina with his shiny new toy, a two-plane slider that Molina had never seen Lincecum throw before except for probably on video. So much for that supposed advantage.
In the fourth, Lee put the Giants down in order again but Posey took another 10 pitches out of him to open the inning before grounding out. It was a shame Posey’s swing came alive so late in the series when he belted the dinger off O’Day, because I’m sure the country would have loved to see him when he’s hot; they will soon enough. In the bottom half, Timmy finally gave up a hit but stranded the runner at first by striking out two more batters and receiving an excellent play by Renteria for a fielders choice out at second. It was looking like we were in for a long night. That would be assuming extra innings, of course, as the game was literally zooming along. Someone tweeted the commercial time was likely exceeding the actual baseball air time, and I think they may have been right.
In the fifth, the Giants caught probably the first break of the game. Kinsler made an outstanding play on a weakly hit ball but first baseman Moreland simply dropped the putout. Lee, undeterred, helped Burrell to continue his abysmal postseason and especially dreadful World Series by striking him out and then got the double play grounder out of Renteria to end the minor threat. Lincecum got two more weak groundouts in the fifth as well as striking out Murphy, again, who learned nothing from his previous at bat and retired in three pitches.
In the sixth, the Giants almost got their man. Lee punched out Rowand and got another ground out to retire Torres, but Sanchez – who was robbed by Lee with a nice catch on a liner up the middle earlier in the game – singled to center. Up came the dangerous Buster Posey. He drove a ball to deep right field and I screamed my patented “Get OUT! GET OUT!” Unfortunately, the ball landed in Cruz’s glove on the track and I was left with a hollow feeling and my 10 pound dog scared half to death – for the 40th time this month**. Lincecum gave up slightly better swings to the Rangers in the sixth, but the results were harmless as he stranded Moreland at first after a leadoff single with a couple of hard hit balls to center and groundout.
**Quick primer on my dog: He’s actually a 12 pound darling of a dog named Oscar – half Yorkie and half Shih Tzu – whom I wonderfully fell into when I met my lovely fiancé; he’s now half mine. He’d been getting a treat per run in the NLDS, half because it somehow became good “luck” amidst my many superstitions I began adopting one after the other during the series, and half in apology for the loud yelling. Anyway, I had to stop giving Oscar the treats because he had recently lost a pound – he’s supposed to be closer to an 11 or 10 pound dog than a 12 or 13 pound dog – but mostly because my beautiful fiancé told me to. Thankfully, the Giants won and the ritual stopped long before the 11 run outburst in game 1 of the World Series!
My prayers were answered in the seventh. Cody Ross went down 0 and 2 but singled to center. Juan Uribe started 0 and 2 but then singled to center – he literally made every hit count this postseason – bringing up the Giants’ best offensive player in 2010. Remarkably, Aubrey Huff laid down a perfect bunt for the first time in his career to advance the runners like he’d been doing it since 1993. After another brutal strikeout by Burrell, I believe his 11th in 12 World Series at bats – he would add a 12th in the ninth – the collective fan base of the Giants had to again start recalling Ashkon’s rendition of “Don’t Stop Believing.” After getting ahead 2 and 0, Renteria delivered a mistake cutter over the left center field fence for a game changing, history shattering, Ranger razing 3-run HR, bringing Giants fans to a fever pitch and my household into a hooting sh*t storm. I was literally shaking and struggled to text friends as I knew he’d just won the Giants the World Series. Lincecum gave up a solo homer to Cruz in the bottom half after the ump squeezed him on a should-be strike two, but after beginning to look a bit human and following that with a walk to Cruz and bringing the tying run to the dish, he struck out Murphy (again) and Molina (again) with his usual array of spinning, dizzying, gravity defying, air bending - not the M. Night Shyamalan kind - batter battering pitches.
In the eighth Ron Washington finally displayed understanding of how best and properly to use his closer and brought in Neftali Feliz. Feliz gave up an infield single to Posey but otherwise moved through the Giants quickly. Lincecum retired the side with his tenth strikeout of the game to open the bottom half and needed just 9 total pitches. Even with one of the very best, elite closers in the bullpen ready to go, I wondered if Bochy might let Lincecum*** finish it. He did not, which I felt was the correct move. And anyway, it was nice to see Lincecum show off his gymnastic athleticism as he gracefully leaped over the dugout barrier and attacked the mound to meet his battery mate and black-bearded savior.
***Lincecum’s line: 8 IP, 1 ER, 3 hits, 1 BB, 10 K’s.
Lincecum’s career pelts: 2 NL Cy Young awards, 3 NL All-star selections, 3 straight NL strikeout titles – joining only Spahn and Randy Johnson in the NL since WWII, and a World Series clinching win. The 9 teams that passed on him in 2006 are weeping somewhere right now and none more sobbingly than his hometown of Seattle.
Feliz tossed a couple of strikeouts in the ninth to give his team a shot and keep it close, but then they really didn’t have a shot anyway. The Giants’ feared and bearded closer came trotting in to end all the torture of 2010 and of the last 52 years for San Franciscans, and he had no intention of making it interesting this time. He struck Hamilton out with a belt high heater, looking. He got Guerrero to meekly ground out to short; I was suddenly grinning ear to ear. After going 3 and 2 to the dangerous, right-handed Nelson Cruz, Wilson never gave in and planted his filthy cutter in much the same spot of the plate he did to the left-handed Ryan Howard to clinch the Pennant. Unlike Howard, Nelson swung but missed as so many hitters had against Wilson before him, and the San Francisco Giants were World Series Champions for the first time in history, and I was – along with countless other fans, including my family and father who forged the passion for Giants baseball in my belly – smitten.
Willie Mays, Orlando Cepeda, Gaylord Perry, Will Clark, Barry Bonds, Jeff Kent, Juan Marichal, and Willie McCovey are all Giants greats, Hall of Famers, or will be – or at least should be, see Barry Bonds – Hall of Famers, but none of them won a World Series with the San Francisco version of the Orange and Black. But now Andres Torres, Freddy Sanchez, Cody Ross, Juan Uribe, Aaron Rowand, Edgar Renteria, Aubrey Huff, Pat Burrell, Javier Lopez – the greatest deadline deal of them all in 2010, even bigger than Cliff Lee as it all turned out – have. And though this team is filled with dazzling arms like Tim “The Franchise” Lincecum and budding young stars like Buster Posey, they brought home the hardware with a lineup largely assembled of guys no other team really wanted, and I would never have wanted it any other way.
Tuesday, November 2, 2010
Monday, November 1, 2010
Madison Mutes Texas, Giants up 3-1
After a postseason of walks and important singles, Huff finally pumped a pitch and Tommy Hunter sure gave him a good one to do just that. But then again, Andres Torres and Freddy Sanchez combined to work him to death in the top of the third inning which may have helped, and by the time Huff Daddy stepped up to the plate, Hunter was ripe for the picking. He threw an 86 MPH cutter across the middle of the plate, just ever so slightly towards the inner half, and Huff took care of the rest. The only question was fair or foul, and had they been in San Fran you bet that pearl would be wet. The Giants led 2-0 and it was the big blow they would need to restore their confidence and carry them the rest of the muggy evening.
One of the most promising signs of the evening was one swing off the bat of the Giants’ – lets say it together – 23 year old rookie, cleanup-hitting catcher. When he stepped up to the plate in the eighth against Darren O’Day for yet another battle, I texted to a friend: “I wish Posey would wake up. His at bats have been dreadful. He’s trying to pull everything and it doesn’t make any sense. His strength is opposite field and yet he’s trying to yank everything.” Moments later, Buster displayed the brilliance of his developing talents and of glorious backspin in one swing. O’Day left a changeup in the top quarter of the strike zone – in case you didn’t know, terrible place for a changeup – and Buster belted it to center for a solo shot. It sure would have been nice to hear a real homerun call, you know, one by Kuiper. Oh well. It reminded me a great deal of a homerun Buster hit off of Andrew Cashner in the eighth inning of a critical game at Wrigley in September. That night hard luck Matt Cain had battled a resurgent Carlos Zambrano to a stalemate through six and was removed because the Giants were desperate for runs. The solo shot by Posey in the eighth would be the only run of the game as the Giants won 1-0. His homerun that night traveled 418 feet to center field, and his blast traveled 419 feet to center on this Halloween night. When Posey’s going good that’s exactly what he does, and I’m hoping that’s a sign for tomorrow’s 2010 version of November baseball. The graph below illustrates Posey's ability to hit for power to all fields, where 10 of his 18 homeruns were to center or right field.
But the real story tonight was Madison “Young Hickory” Bumgarner* of Hickory, North Carolina. A reader recently informed me that was the nickname of James K. Polk – I hadn’t realized it –who was given the nickname for being a particular protégé to Andrew “Old Hickory” Jackson. This tenacious 21 year old Bumgarner, who by my novice observation is about as fearless as the original Hickory, started the evening having already thrown 216 total innings in 2010 (including at AAA Fresno) and hadn’t pitched more than 151 innings in a season ever; he did that in 2009.
*The Giants used to punt 1st round draft picks for aging hitters like Michael Tucker. That trend is no more. Their four postseason starters are homegrown, drafted and developed by San Francisco. Their second baseman, who flashed the leather brilliantly on this night, was acquired by trading Tim Alderson, another 1st round pick. Posey was of course the fifth overall selection in 2008. Their bearded closer they got in the 24th round of the 2003 draft out of LSU because he had a big arm but needed Tommy John and would require a hefty bonus. That one worked out, too.
At the end of 2009, he came up to make an emergency start when Tim Lincecum had a stiff back and couldn’t make it. It was cause for four-alarm panic in San Francisco, but at least we’d get a chance to see this kid we’d heard so much about already pitch live. Bumgarner pitched fine, he gave up two runs (on two solo shots) in 5.1 innings and got the no decision. But, Madison topped out at about 88-90 MPH and confirmed what many (obsessed) Giants fans had been reading. The reports from the minor leagues were not good. Bumgarner was still getting outs and competing, he was still not walking many batters which is one of his greatest strengths, but he was also not popping the catchers mitt with a mid-90’s heater and he was not striking out many batters. That’s what he was throwing in Spring Training in 2009 what he garnered compliments from Manny Ramirez. But over the course of his second professional season, his fastball disappeared. He was still pretty successful, but the way he was doing it wasn’t exactly overwhelming.
In 2008, Bumgarner made his professional debut in the Class A Sally League and threw 141.2 innings. He struck out 164 batters (10.42/9) and walked just 21 (1.33), while giving up just 3 homeruns (.19). That left him with a 15-3 record, a 1.46 ERA and the honor of Minor League Pitcher of the Year. He was instantly an untouchable prospect and being groomed for the Big Club’s rotation by the Giants. He was overmatching the Class A hitters like a man among boys, and his 6’4”, 220 lb frame doesn’t make it difficult to imagine.
Many Giants fans hoped that Bumgarner’s arm simply tired throughout 2009 and that he’d show up in the spring in 2010, flash his plus fastball and control and skate his way into the rotation. Instead, his velocity hadn’t returned and he was blasted in Spring Training. Suddenly onlookers began to worry he was injured. It’s happened countless times before. A phenomenal pitching prospect rockets through the minors, gets hurt along the way and is never heard from again.
Bumgarner was sent to AAA Fresno and continued to get rocked through three starts. His replacement in the Major Leagues was Todd Wellemeyer, and he would need replacing of his own soon enough, that is once the Giants came to the realization that any success he was having was as hollow as a termite infested tree. And then, Giants instructor and pitching guru Dick Tidrow had a bullpen session with Madison and he was back on track. His mechanics had been muddied somehow along the way and he needed a tweak to get him back where he was. Over the next couple months, Madison regained his control and started dispatching minor league hitters again.
Fast-forward to Halloween 2010. Sometime in August or September, Bumgarner started to get his fastball back. What’s more, he’d gotten a better idea of how to pitch through his struggles – does this remind anyone of Tim Lincecum’s struggles this season? On Halloween night with (much) of the country watching, in a pivetol game 4 of the World Series, Bumgarner once again flashed his talent and everything he learned when his fastball abandoned him, and he showed that he was a better pitcher because of it. It’s a beautiful thing when a plan comes together.
Madison threw 106 pitches on the night and 69 strikes (65%). The big key for him was changeup and slider command. He was able to five total swing and miss strikes with those offerings. He threw 16 of 21 changes for strikes (76%) and 18 of 25 sliders (72%). He averaged 91 mph with his four seam fastball (topping at over 94 mph) and located it on both sides of the plate. I recall specifically, when McCarver mentioned that Kinsler was an inner half feasting type hitter. No sooner did those words fly out of his mouth was Bumgarner pounding him on the insider corner with a fastball for a strike. Bumgarner pitched fearlessly and was rewarded for it.
His best work came against Vladimir Guerrero. In the second, he struck him out with a 92.5 mph fastball perfectly placed on the insider corner, up at the hands. In the fourth with a runner on, he struck him out with an 82 mph changeup off the plate. Guerrero’s swing was extremely awkward. And in the seventh after a baffling error by Juan Uribe, he struck him out with an 82 mph slider that he, again, looked far from comfortable swinging at. It was almost as if after the first strikeout he kept waiting for that inside fastball again, and it just never came. His final line was impressive: 8 IP, 3 hits (all singles), 2 BB and 6 K’s.
In the ninth, closer Brian Wilson needed just 11 pitches while throwing 8 strikes to finish Texas off. He decisively handled the Rangers’ Josh Hamilton which was particularly impressive. He threw a 93 mph fastball for a called strike. Then he threw a devilish, biting slide piece at 84 mph that many believe must be some type of hellish curveball. Hamilton miraculously tipped it for a foul strike two. Finally, he threw a 96 mph fastball way up and out of the zone but Hamilton just couldn’t resist, swinging and missing and giving the Giants the 3-1 lead in the series. The Rangers got the chance to flash their shiny closer in game 3, and the Giants did in game 4. It had this Giants fan smiling and the Rangers hitters (and fans) fearing the beard.
Also of note, the Giants averaged 4.6 pitches per plate appearance. They averaged just 3.74 during the regular season, and no, that’s not good. Andres Torres went 3 of 5 with two doubles, including a huge one while batting right handed. This is a good sign because he’s been swinging a hot bat lately from both sides of the plate lately, and he’ll be facing left handed Cliff Lee tomorrow as the Giants attempt to clinch, and Torres gave him trouble last go ‘round in game 1. And their creaky shortstop, Edgar Renteria, had three hits too. This may well be his farewell performance and I can't think of a better way for a gem of a ballplayer to head out as the curtians close.
The Giants are up 3-1 going into a Game 5 in Texas with their ace on the hill and their adoring fans at their backs. They have 3 games, 1 in Texas and 2 in San Francisco if necessary, to make history and give Giants fans a long awaited parade down Market Street. I may only be 25, but I was around in 2002 and I’ve been around long enough to know these opportunities don’t arise very often – someone can try telling that to rookies Bumgarner and Posey when this is all over. The Giants are making just their fourth trip to the Fall Classic since coming west, and the thought that their on the doorstep of ending the heartbreak after all the torture this season is giving me the chills.
Pitch data from Brooks Baseball PitchFX.
One of the most promising signs of the evening was one swing off the bat of the Giants’ – lets say it together – 23 year old rookie, cleanup-hitting catcher. When he stepped up to the plate in the eighth against Darren O’Day for yet another battle, I texted to a friend: “I wish Posey would wake up. His at bats have been dreadful. He’s trying to pull everything and it doesn’t make any sense. His strength is opposite field and yet he’s trying to yank everything.” Moments later, Buster displayed the brilliance of his developing talents and of glorious backspin in one swing. O’Day left a changeup in the top quarter of the strike zone – in case you didn’t know, terrible place for a changeup – and Buster belted it to center for a solo shot. It sure would have been nice to hear a real homerun call, you know, one by Kuiper. Oh well. It reminded me a great deal of a homerun Buster hit off of Andrew Cashner in the eighth inning of a critical game at Wrigley in September. That night hard luck Matt Cain had battled a resurgent Carlos Zambrano to a stalemate through six and was removed because the Giants were desperate for runs. The solo shot by Posey in the eighth would be the only run of the game as the Giants won 1-0. His homerun that night traveled 418 feet to center field, and his blast traveled 419 feet to center on this Halloween night. When Posey’s going good that’s exactly what he does, and I’m hoping that’s a sign for tomorrow’s 2010 version of November baseball. The graph below illustrates Posey's ability to hit for power to all fields, where 10 of his 18 homeruns were to center or right field.
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| Compliments of Hit Tracker |
But the real story tonight was Madison “Young Hickory” Bumgarner* of Hickory, North Carolina. A reader recently informed me that was the nickname of James K. Polk – I hadn’t realized it –who was given the nickname for being a particular protégé to Andrew “Old Hickory” Jackson. This tenacious 21 year old Bumgarner, who by my novice observation is about as fearless as the original Hickory, started the evening having already thrown 216 total innings in 2010 (including at AAA Fresno) and hadn’t pitched more than 151 innings in a season ever; he did that in 2009.
*The Giants used to punt 1st round draft picks for aging hitters like Michael Tucker. That trend is no more. Their four postseason starters are homegrown, drafted and developed by San Francisco. Their second baseman, who flashed the leather brilliantly on this night, was acquired by trading Tim Alderson, another 1st round pick. Posey was of course the fifth overall selection in 2008. Their bearded closer they got in the 24th round of the 2003 draft out of LSU because he had a big arm but needed Tommy John and would require a hefty bonus. That one worked out, too.
At the end of 2009, he came up to make an emergency start when Tim Lincecum had a stiff back and couldn’t make it. It was cause for four-alarm panic in San Francisco, but at least we’d get a chance to see this kid we’d heard so much about already pitch live. Bumgarner pitched fine, he gave up two runs (on two solo shots) in 5.1 innings and got the no decision. But, Madison topped out at about 88-90 MPH and confirmed what many (obsessed) Giants fans had been reading. The reports from the minor leagues were not good. Bumgarner was still getting outs and competing, he was still not walking many batters which is one of his greatest strengths, but he was also not popping the catchers mitt with a mid-90’s heater and he was not striking out many batters. That’s what he was throwing in Spring Training in 2009 what he garnered compliments from Manny Ramirez. But over the course of his second professional season, his fastball disappeared. He was still pretty successful, but the way he was doing it wasn’t exactly overwhelming.
In 2008, Bumgarner made his professional debut in the Class A Sally League and threw 141.2 innings. He struck out 164 batters (10.42/9) and walked just 21 (1.33), while giving up just 3 homeruns (.19). That left him with a 15-3 record, a 1.46 ERA and the honor of Minor League Pitcher of the Year. He was instantly an untouchable prospect and being groomed for the Big Club’s rotation by the Giants. He was overmatching the Class A hitters like a man among boys, and his 6’4”, 220 lb frame doesn’t make it difficult to imagine.
Many Giants fans hoped that Bumgarner’s arm simply tired throughout 2009 and that he’d show up in the spring in 2010, flash his plus fastball and control and skate his way into the rotation. Instead, his velocity hadn’t returned and he was blasted in Spring Training. Suddenly onlookers began to worry he was injured. It’s happened countless times before. A phenomenal pitching prospect rockets through the minors, gets hurt along the way and is never heard from again.
Bumgarner was sent to AAA Fresno and continued to get rocked through three starts. His replacement in the Major Leagues was Todd Wellemeyer, and he would need replacing of his own soon enough, that is once the Giants came to the realization that any success he was having was as hollow as a termite infested tree. And then, Giants instructor and pitching guru Dick Tidrow had a bullpen session with Madison and he was back on track. His mechanics had been muddied somehow along the way and he needed a tweak to get him back where he was. Over the next couple months, Madison regained his control and started dispatching minor league hitters again.
Fast-forward to Halloween 2010. Sometime in August or September, Bumgarner started to get his fastball back. What’s more, he’d gotten a better idea of how to pitch through his struggles – does this remind anyone of Tim Lincecum’s struggles this season? On Halloween night with (much) of the country watching, in a pivetol game 4 of the World Series, Bumgarner once again flashed his talent and everything he learned when his fastball abandoned him, and he showed that he was a better pitcher because of it. It’s a beautiful thing when a plan comes together.
Madison threw 106 pitches on the night and 69 strikes (65%). The big key for him was changeup and slider command. He was able to five total swing and miss strikes with those offerings. He threw 16 of 21 changes for strikes (76%) and 18 of 25 sliders (72%). He averaged 91 mph with his four seam fastball (topping at over 94 mph) and located it on both sides of the plate. I recall specifically, when McCarver mentioned that Kinsler was an inner half feasting type hitter. No sooner did those words fly out of his mouth was Bumgarner pounding him on the insider corner with a fastball for a strike. Bumgarner pitched fearlessly and was rewarded for it.
His best work came against Vladimir Guerrero. In the second, he struck him out with a 92.5 mph fastball perfectly placed on the insider corner, up at the hands. In the fourth with a runner on, he struck him out with an 82 mph changeup off the plate. Guerrero’s swing was extremely awkward. And in the seventh after a baffling error by Juan Uribe, he struck him out with an 82 mph slider that he, again, looked far from comfortable swinging at. It was almost as if after the first strikeout he kept waiting for that inside fastball again, and it just never came. His final line was impressive: 8 IP, 3 hits (all singles), 2 BB and 6 K’s.
In the ninth, closer Brian Wilson needed just 11 pitches while throwing 8 strikes to finish Texas off. He decisively handled the Rangers’ Josh Hamilton which was particularly impressive. He threw a 93 mph fastball for a called strike. Then he threw a devilish, biting slide piece at 84 mph that many believe must be some type of hellish curveball. Hamilton miraculously tipped it for a foul strike two. Finally, he threw a 96 mph fastball way up and out of the zone but Hamilton just couldn’t resist, swinging and missing and giving the Giants the 3-1 lead in the series. The Rangers got the chance to flash their shiny closer in game 3, and the Giants did in game 4. It had this Giants fan smiling and the Rangers hitters (and fans) fearing the beard.
Also of note, the Giants averaged 4.6 pitches per plate appearance. They averaged just 3.74 during the regular season, and no, that’s not good. Andres Torres went 3 of 5 with two doubles, including a huge one while batting right handed. This is a good sign because he’s been swinging a hot bat lately from both sides of the plate lately, and he’ll be facing left handed Cliff Lee tomorrow as the Giants attempt to clinch, and Torres gave him trouble last go ‘round in game 1. And their creaky shortstop, Edgar Renteria, had three hits too. This may well be his farewell performance and I can't think of a better way for a gem of a ballplayer to head out as the curtians close.
The Giants are up 3-1 going into a Game 5 in Texas with their ace on the hill and their adoring fans at their backs. They have 3 games, 1 in Texas and 2 in San Francisco if necessary, to make history and give Giants fans a long awaited parade down Market Street. I may only be 25, but I was around in 2002 and I’ve been around long enough to know these opportunities don’t arise very often – someone can try telling that to rookies Bumgarner and Posey when this is all over. The Giants are making just their fourth trip to the Fall Classic since coming west, and the thought that their on the doorstep of ending the heartbreak after all the torture this season is giving me the chills.
Pitch data from Brooks Baseball PitchFX.
Friday, October 29, 2010
W: CAIN, L: Wilson, S: Washington; Giants up 2-0
As it turned out, the Giants handled the Rangers decisively on Thursday night, but that was only after the Rangers’ relief corps turned the bottom of the eighth into a full blown walk-a-thon. It started out inauspiciously enough, and it indeed looked as if the Giants’ pitch-black bearded closer would need to come out to The Rolling Stones’ “Paint it Black – well, if Andy Baggarly had his way anyway, he’d more likely come out to his usual House of Pain – to get three outs in the top of the ninth before the Rangers plated two to secure the win for the steady Matt Cain. Steady, not brilliant and not dominant if you ask Rob Neyer or probably more than a few sabermetricians anyway – more on this later. If not for Ron Washington deciding that saving his flame throwing left handed closer Neftali Feliz in case the Rangers not only tied the game in the ninth but went ahead creating a hypothetical save situation* for him, the story of the game would have been Matt “Big Sugar” Cain. And really, it still is.
*Washington’s use of his pen was truly inexcusable tonight, but it worked out to the Giants’ benefit so I won’t spend too much time on it. I will say that he’s become a bit of a punching bag in the statistical crowd, an honor he’s earned for deploying his relievers in an ever peculiar manner throughout the postseason, most notably not using his closer almost ever. There’s no evidence that the Rangers would have ever scored so, as Rob Neyer pointed out, it became a moot point. At least he got one decision right in Game 2, i.e. to not put the creaky Vlad in right field again which saved the Rangers at least twice on balls put into play by the Giants.
Though the final score was 9 to 0, the game was actually one of the real pitchers duels the Giants and their fans are accustomed to. The game was all zeroes for four innings, 1-0 for two innings and 2-0 for one inning to take us to the eighth. But after the Giants and Cain got their shutdown inning in the top half – with an assist from Javier Lopez continuing his dominant October by retiring Josh Hamilton – all hell broke loose. Well, not right away but soon thereafter. I’ll get to that.
In Cain’s seven and two-thirds of work, he gave up four hits, two walks (1 intentional to face the pitcher in a key situation) and struck out a mere two. He stuck with mostly three pitches on the night of the 98 he threw. He threw 53 four-seam fastballs (54%), 23 changeups (23%), 21 sliders (21%) and 1 curveball (1%). Like Lincecum, he opted to stay off the fastball in terms of how often he usually throws it – he’s thrown 66% heaters in his career. He stole first pitch strikes time and time again with both his changeup and especially his slider, while also mixing in the fastball which he had command of on both sides of the plate. You’ll see from the plot below that while he didn’t throw as many fastballs as he typically does, he didn’t stray from his strength. Cain is a high fastball type pitcher, and he’s effective that way. It’s the reason he’s a fly ball pitcher as opposed to inducing ground balls a plenty and why he’s so suited for AT&T Park.
According to FOX’s beloved broadcasters McCarver and Buck, Ron Washington would say before the game that Matt Cain “has power, and we like power.” Well, Cain’s power fastball up in the zone certainly could have been a concern for him or could have had him contemplating a change in approach. But as the graph clearly shows, the unintimidated Cain delivered his heater in the upper half of the zone while largely keeping it on the corners, and kept his slider and changeup down and below the strike zone where each of those offerings are most effective. While Cain didn’t flash the swing and miss brilliance his teammate Tim “The Freak” did in his 14 strikeout, 31 swing and miss strikes gem against the Braves, he did evenly distribute 9 swing and miss strikes between all three of his pitches.
The one blemish on Cain’s evening – and it would become a real break rather than a blemish ultimately – was a fastball he left up and out over the plate that Ian Kinsler crushed to center. I can say with the utmost confidence that viewers won’t see so near a homerun (without actually being one) ever again. Even more incredible, it was the Catch-22 of near homeruns. The ball hit the very top of the padded center field wall with great force when the backspin of the ball which carried it so far in the first place returned it to the field. Talk about bitter sweet. Had the ball cleared the fence, the Rangers would have led 1-0. Instead, Cain – the bulldog he is – stranded Kinsler exactly where he stood at second in disbelief when he coaxed a lineout and two groundouts, snatching the momentum from the Rangers.
The Giants immediately capitalized on the captured momentum when Edgar Renteria connected on what was really a pretty good pitch, an up and in fastball which he deposited into the left field bleachers for a solo home run, igniting the crowd. And with the way Cain had been pitching and the misfortune that was the double by Kinsler, it must have felt like a grand slam. C.J. Wilson had been excellent otherwise, and truthfully, had pitched a lot like Cliff Lee was supposed to have. He dropped 0-0 curveballs in for strikes over and over and kept the Giants at bay for most of the night. For a pitcher with a reputation for spotty command he sure didn’t look the part.
Cain again got into some trouble in the sixth when he gave up back to back singles followed by a wild pitch to put runners on second and third with one out. But he got Cruz – who was having a rough night taking the only two punch outs from Cain – to foul out and Kinsler to fly out. After Cain threw down another 1-2-3 inning in the seventh he got the insurance run he coveted after Ross walked, the Giants chased Wilson with a blister, and Juan Uribe blooped him in with a single. Time was running out for Texas.
As I promised earlier, I will now describe the two-out nightmare that was the bottom of the eighth (for Texas) but a huge relief and rare chance to relax for San Franciscans. There was definitely some eighth inning weirdness in this one. But first, Daniel O’Day struck out Andres Torres and especially Freddy Sanchez in convincing fashion. Up came Buster Posey, who had looked lost in general at the plate thus far in the series. He was 0 for 3 to this point in the game with two strikeouts. The hardest contact he’d made was when his bat cleanly struck one of the green seats in the first few rows near the dugout after he’d wung his wood and struck out in parallel. Posey ended up showing the beauty of his approach by reaching out and poking a ball to center for a single, and though the Rangers didn’t know it yet, their doom had begun.
Washington went to left handed reliever (and young, baby faced) Derek Holland to get the lefty on lefty match-up he desired. Wash could just as easily had his closer warming considering the game was close and keeping the deficit at just two would be pivotal were a comeback to be staged in the ninth. But he didn’t. What unfolded to the delight of Giants fans must have been a dose of torture to Texans.
Holland was, in a huge understatement, erratic. Of the 13 pitches he threw, 12 were balls. That plated one, but there were still two outs and the Rangers’ closer was still available and rested. In came Mark Lowe by Washington’s choice. Lowe made it more interesting but ultimately walked in another before giving up a 3-2, back breaking, two run single to Edgar Renteria. Washington dug into his bag ‘o relievers once more and pulled out Michael Kirkman. Kirkman turned out to be the right man for the job, apparently, because he didn’t walk anyone and struck out Freddy Sanchez… after giving up a two run triple to pinch hitter Aaron Rowand and a double to Andres Torres. And as I mentioned, this all – every bit of it – occurred with two outs.
By this time Brian Wilson’s tattooed right arm had become as unnecessary as it was ice cold. Mota came in to log his first postseason inning and retired the Rangers in order to give the Giants the two to nothing lead in the series. The Giants fans erupted, celebrated, and most importantly felt one step closer to that which once was thought to be incomprehensible. But this team of random LEGO’s? ‘Fraid so, America.
More on Cain: A few paragraphs back, I eluded to the fact that many statistically inclined baseball onlookers think Cain is much luckier than he is dominant – Rob Neyer recently wrote about it. There’s a compelling school of thought among them, and in most cases I myself am among them, that a pitcher can only control three variables: homeruns, walks and strikeouts. Meaning, when a pitcher allows the ball to be put into play, he has no control over whether or not an out will be recorded. And so, a statistic exists – and which I myself use pretty often – called FIP or Fielding Independent Pitching. FIP is determined using walk rate, strikeout rate and homerun rate and is scaled to look like ERA or Earned Run Average, which everyone is familiar with. When a pitchers FIP is higher than his ERA, there’s evidence that the pitcher benefited from good defense and good luck, when FIP is lower than ERA the opposite. There’s overwhelming evidence this is true and FIP is a great predictor of future ERA. For example, I’ll confidently submit that Trevor Cahill of the A’s with the 2.97 ERA will not have an ERA below 3.00 next season. I’m so confident in that assertion that I bet a friend $20.
Well, Matt Cain has an ERA well below his FIP in 2010… and 2009, and 2008 and 2007. Over his career of roughly 1,100 innings, his career ERA (3.45) is approaching half a run better than his career FIP (3.84) because he’s done exceptionally well at holding batters to a poor average on balls put into play (BABiP). Cain’s is .274 in his career, much lower than the league average of around .300. I’ll leave it at this: the great debate is, does Cain have some magical, unexplainable ability to induce weak contact, when 99% of professional pitchers simply have no control over such things?
Such pitchers do exist, though they are rare. Tom Seaver was one and the active and brilliant Mariano Rivera another. And having watched Cain pitch from 21 years old to 26, I have no issue saying I believe he is among these magical few. I hope I’m right but at least a few more years are probably needed to confirm or obliterate my perception. It may well be my bias as a bleeding, die hard Giants fan coming through, but who can blame me?
To conclude this blog: After Cain’s similarly fantastic Game 3 win against the Phillies in the NLCS, irreplaceable Giants beat writer Andrew Baggarly said it better than anyone before him after Cain came off the bump following eight mesmerizing innings of shutout ball:
“And yes, Cain walked off. He didn’t leap or jog. He took no pleasure in the moment with a roundhouse punch or a fist pump or even a smile. He exited like a grim town sheriff after shooting the bad guys.
Then he simply gave a firm handshake to catcher Buster Posey, who waited for him at the rail with an admiration so palpable, the kid might as well have asked for an autograph.
The town was safe for another day.”
It seems beat writers can be swayed by “Big Sugar’s” romance, too.
*Washington’s use of his pen was truly inexcusable tonight, but it worked out to the Giants’ benefit so I won’t spend too much time on it. I will say that he’s become a bit of a punching bag in the statistical crowd, an honor he’s earned for deploying his relievers in an ever peculiar manner throughout the postseason, most notably not using his closer almost ever. There’s no evidence that the Rangers would have ever scored so, as Rob Neyer pointed out, it became a moot point. At least he got one decision right in Game 2, i.e. to not put the creaky Vlad in right field again which saved the Rangers at least twice on balls put into play by the Giants.
Though the final score was 9 to 0, the game was actually one of the real pitchers duels the Giants and their fans are accustomed to. The game was all zeroes for four innings, 1-0 for two innings and 2-0 for one inning to take us to the eighth. But after the Giants and Cain got their shutdown inning in the top half – with an assist from Javier Lopez continuing his dominant October by retiring Josh Hamilton – all hell broke loose. Well, not right away but soon thereafter. I’ll get to that.
In Cain’s seven and two-thirds of work, he gave up four hits, two walks (1 intentional to face the pitcher in a key situation) and struck out a mere two. He stuck with mostly three pitches on the night of the 98 he threw. He threw 53 four-seam fastballs (54%), 23 changeups (23%), 21 sliders (21%) and 1 curveball (1%). Like Lincecum, he opted to stay off the fastball in terms of how often he usually throws it – he’s thrown 66% heaters in his career. He stole first pitch strikes time and time again with both his changeup and especially his slider, while also mixing in the fastball which he had command of on both sides of the plate. You’ll see from the plot below that while he didn’t throw as many fastballs as he typically does, he didn’t stray from his strength. Cain is a high fastball type pitcher, and he’s effective that way. It’s the reason he’s a fly ball pitcher as opposed to inducing ground balls a plenty and why he’s so suited for AT&T Park.
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| PitchFX courtesy of Brooks Baseball |
The one blemish on Cain’s evening – and it would become a real break rather than a blemish ultimately – was a fastball he left up and out over the plate that Ian Kinsler crushed to center. I can say with the utmost confidence that viewers won’t see so near a homerun (without actually being one) ever again. Even more incredible, it was the Catch-22 of near homeruns. The ball hit the very top of the padded center field wall with great force when the backspin of the ball which carried it so far in the first place returned it to the field. Talk about bitter sweet. Had the ball cleared the fence, the Rangers would have led 1-0. Instead, Cain – the bulldog he is – stranded Kinsler exactly where he stood at second in disbelief when he coaxed a lineout and two groundouts, snatching the momentum from the Rangers.
The Giants immediately capitalized on the captured momentum when Edgar Renteria connected on what was really a pretty good pitch, an up and in fastball which he deposited into the left field bleachers for a solo home run, igniting the crowd. And with the way Cain had been pitching and the misfortune that was the double by Kinsler, it must have felt like a grand slam. C.J. Wilson had been excellent otherwise, and truthfully, had pitched a lot like Cliff Lee was supposed to have. He dropped 0-0 curveballs in for strikes over and over and kept the Giants at bay for most of the night. For a pitcher with a reputation for spotty command he sure didn’t look the part.
Cain again got into some trouble in the sixth when he gave up back to back singles followed by a wild pitch to put runners on second and third with one out. But he got Cruz – who was having a rough night taking the only two punch outs from Cain – to foul out and Kinsler to fly out. After Cain threw down another 1-2-3 inning in the seventh he got the insurance run he coveted after Ross walked, the Giants chased Wilson with a blister, and Juan Uribe blooped him in with a single. Time was running out for Texas.
As I promised earlier, I will now describe the two-out nightmare that was the bottom of the eighth (for Texas) but a huge relief and rare chance to relax for San Franciscans. There was definitely some eighth inning weirdness in this one. But first, Daniel O’Day struck out Andres Torres and especially Freddy Sanchez in convincing fashion. Up came Buster Posey, who had looked lost in general at the plate thus far in the series. He was 0 for 3 to this point in the game with two strikeouts. The hardest contact he’d made was when his bat cleanly struck one of the green seats in the first few rows near the dugout after he’d wung his wood and struck out in parallel. Posey ended up showing the beauty of his approach by reaching out and poking a ball to center for a single, and though the Rangers didn’t know it yet, their doom had begun.
Washington went to left handed reliever (and young, baby faced) Derek Holland to get the lefty on lefty match-up he desired. Wash could just as easily had his closer warming considering the game was close and keeping the deficit at just two would be pivotal were a comeback to be staged in the ninth. But he didn’t. What unfolded to the delight of Giants fans must have been a dose of torture to Texans.
Holland was, in a huge understatement, erratic. Of the 13 pitches he threw, 12 were balls. That plated one, but there were still two outs and the Rangers’ closer was still available and rested. In came Mark Lowe by Washington’s choice. Lowe made it more interesting but ultimately walked in another before giving up a 3-2, back breaking, two run single to Edgar Renteria. Washington dug into his bag ‘o relievers once more and pulled out Michael Kirkman. Kirkman turned out to be the right man for the job, apparently, because he didn’t walk anyone and struck out Freddy Sanchez… after giving up a two run triple to pinch hitter Aaron Rowand and a double to Andres Torres. And as I mentioned, this all – every bit of it – occurred with two outs.
By this time Brian Wilson’s tattooed right arm had become as unnecessary as it was ice cold. Mota came in to log his first postseason inning and retired the Rangers in order to give the Giants the two to nothing lead in the series. The Giants fans erupted, celebrated, and most importantly felt one step closer to that which once was thought to be incomprehensible. But this team of random LEGO’s? ‘Fraid so, America.
More on Cain: A few paragraphs back, I eluded to the fact that many statistically inclined baseball onlookers think Cain is much luckier than he is dominant – Rob Neyer recently wrote about it. There’s a compelling school of thought among them, and in most cases I myself am among them, that a pitcher can only control three variables: homeruns, walks and strikeouts. Meaning, when a pitcher allows the ball to be put into play, he has no control over whether or not an out will be recorded. And so, a statistic exists – and which I myself use pretty often – called FIP or Fielding Independent Pitching. FIP is determined using walk rate, strikeout rate and homerun rate and is scaled to look like ERA or Earned Run Average, which everyone is familiar with. When a pitchers FIP is higher than his ERA, there’s evidence that the pitcher benefited from good defense and good luck, when FIP is lower than ERA the opposite. There’s overwhelming evidence this is true and FIP is a great predictor of future ERA. For example, I’ll confidently submit that Trevor Cahill of the A’s with the 2.97 ERA will not have an ERA below 3.00 next season. I’m so confident in that assertion that I bet a friend $20.
Well, Matt Cain has an ERA well below his FIP in 2010… and 2009, and 2008 and 2007. Over his career of roughly 1,100 innings, his career ERA (3.45) is approaching half a run better than his career FIP (3.84) because he’s done exceptionally well at holding batters to a poor average on balls put into play (BABiP). Cain’s is .274 in his career, much lower than the league average of around .300. I’ll leave it at this: the great debate is, does Cain have some magical, unexplainable ability to induce weak contact, when 99% of professional pitchers simply have no control over such things?
Such pitchers do exist, though they are rare. Tom Seaver was one and the active and brilliant Mariano Rivera another. And having watched Cain pitch from 21 years old to 26, I have no issue saying I believe he is among these magical few. I hope I’m right but at least a few more years are probably needed to confirm or obliterate my perception. It may well be my bias as a bleeding, die hard Giants fan coming through, but who can blame me?
To conclude this blog: After Cain’s similarly fantastic Game 3 win against the Phillies in the NLCS, irreplaceable Giants beat writer Andrew Baggarly said it better than anyone before him after Cain came off the bump following eight mesmerizing innings of shutout ball:
“And yes, Cain walked off. He didn’t leap or jog. He took no pleasure in the moment with a roundhouse punch or a fist pump or even a smile. He exited like a grim town sheriff after shooting the bad guys.
Then he simply gave a firm handshake to catcher Buster Posey, who waited for him at the rail with an admiration so palpable, the kid might as well have asked for an autograph.
The town was safe for another day.”
It seems beat writers can be swayed by “Big Sugar’s” romance, too.
Wednesday, October 27, 2010
Giants Crush Koufax's Equal - Lee - Take Game 1
The Paul Bunyan tales of Cliff Lee can now cease for at least the next few days as the lefty is bulletproof in October no more (previously 7 and 0). The Yankees managed to take down the Phillies last year despite being beaten by Cliff Lee twice in the World Series, and now that the Giants vanquished the illustrious darling of the East Coast media, they won’t have to go that route. I posited in my 3 keys to the series that the Giants would put themselves in excellent position if they were able to defeat Lee even once. Check. They also passed the other two key tests of the series on this night with flying colors by keeping Hamilton at bay and the Rangers’ running game too.
He threw 80% strikes in the fourth but labored while throwing 32 pitches and giving up two runs (1 earned as Michael Young did the Giants a huge favor by committing an error to start the inning). And that probably did a lot to undo him as he threw 29 more in the fifth while getting two-out-hit to death before ultimately being yanked for Darren O’Day – who is typically excellent against right handed hitters – who promptly gave up a mammoth three-run dinger to Juan Oooo-Ribe. When the ball landed in the bleachers, the crowd had reached a fever pitch that only 55 years of disappointment and a season of torture could create, and the Giants had opened up a six run advantage they would never relent. Lee’s strike percentage by inning was uncharacteristically low (62, 67, 66, 80, and 62). He got behind hitters more often than he usually does, and when he needed to make pitches he didn’t. He missed up and in with his fastball a few times when he was trying to plant it on the insider corner. And when he needed to come into the zone as he fell behind, he center-punched the zone a few times too many and the Giants punished him for it. And he left his curve up and away versus right handed hitters more than a couple of times, because as I said, he didn’t have a feel for the pitch, a pitch he often uses to freeze hitters for strike three.
Freddy Sanchez had an excellent evening. In his first at bat he swung at a perfectly placed down and away fastball, shattered his bat, and hustled into second with a double as it dumped just inside the foul line down the right field line. I guess that was a good sign for how the rest of his night would go. In the third, he doubled in a run down the left field line on a cutter that was down in the zone but caught too much of the middle of the plate. And in the fifth after the Giants did a wonderful job of wearing down Lee in the previous inning, Sanchez doubled in another – his third double, making him the first player in history to double in his first three World Series AB’s – this time on a fastball that Lee was trying to get in on Sanchez but got way too much plate and was up in the zone. Sanchez smoked it into the left-center gap for a clean, warning track two bagger. Freddy lined out hard to right field in his next AB against Alexi Ogando but he’d hit it on the screws again. For good measure, he finally scorched a slider that caught too much plate in his final at bat for another run scoring hit, this time a single with an advance on the error by Vladimir Guerrero, which brings us to our next topic.
The Rangers – Ron Washington, more specifically – went with Bad Vlad in right field. It turned out to be a really bad idea as he committed two errors and looked much like a wounded animal in the spacious AT&T outfield throughout the night. He let a “single” drop off the bat of Edgar Renteria – I say "single" with hesitance because an adept right fielder might have been able to actually snag the liner on a fly; this is something I saw more than once down the stretch with Jose Guillen manning right field – and to make matters worse, he let it fly right by him as he couldn’t reach down to retrieve it and Rent ended up on three for the other of his two errors. To say he didn’t look comfortable would be to say that that Donald Trump’s hair is comb-overish or that Keith Law is sometimes condescending. Something tells me Vlad won’t be in the lineup come Thursday.
The Giants managed to start the series off wonderfully despite the rocky start in the first two innings. Lincecum gave up 1 in the first and 1 in the second, though he wasn’t hit especially hard. He benefited from a nice double play by Juan Uribe to end the threat in the first with the bases juiced – that after he’d done something extremely boneheaded. He retrieved a weak groundball and had the runner between home and third dead to rights, but instead ran him back to the bag as if another Ranger would be there waiting and one would be tagged out. It was a clear case of Tim forgetting the situation. In the second, he gave a double to Lee – yes, the pitcher – on a butcher boy play before giving up a sacrifice fly to Elvis Andrus. The person that scored was the ever-speedy Bengie Molina – he received a nice and classy ovation from Giants fans during introductions – but his cause was helped on what could have been a close play if not for the truly atrocious throw from Torres, though Torres rewarded his manager for letting him start despite the relative ineffectiveness from his weak right side with a big double.
Lincecum left the game with two outs in the sixth having given up 8 hits, 4 runs and 2 walks while only striking out a very uncharacteristic and few 3. He didn’t look great early on but pitched well enough to win on this night. He did appear to be heading into a groove but it seems likely, though as grateful as he was for the 8 runs of support, that the two long offensive innings for the Giants in both the fourth and fifth extinguished what momentum he had. Perhaps having only thrown 93 pitches will be in his favor when he takes the mound again, should he need to of course.
The Rangers would never again be within four runs of the Giants. Both pens didn’t pitch particularly well but the Giants added on three more in the bottom of the eighth so it didn’t much matter. Wilson came in to get the final two outs in the ninth when neither Ramirez – who I am hoping Bochy sees for what he is by now – nor Affledt could close the door. Bochy wasn’t taking any risks and frankly I can’t blame him.
Tomorrow is Game 2 and it starts at the same time, i.e. 4:57. Matt Cain will oppose C.J. Wilson who I wrote a scouting report for yesterday. The Giants shouldn’t expect to get too much help from the Rangers tomorrow as far as errors – or errahs if you’re Dick Stockton – and should look to make their own breaks. Hopefully some other bats will join the fun and Freddy will stay hot as well as Huff who is really starting to swing the bat better. Furthermore, the Giants made a few snazzy plays tonight but also made a couple of mistakes – they’ll need to continue to do the former while limiting the latter. The Giants are just three wins from endearing themselves to The City forever, but they better play one game at a time. It all starts with pitching. Matt Cain, you’re up.
*Speaking of those they’ve defeated, the Giants have now beaten Derek Lowe (2 x), Tim Hudson, Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt, Cole Hamels, Ryan Madson and Cliff Lee in these playoffs. They also beat Halladay, Oswalt (3 x), and Hamels in the regular season, as well as Ubaldo Jimenez, Josh Johnson, Clayton Kershaw, Matt Latos (2 x), R.A. Dickey and Adam Wainwright during the regular season. I’m just saying.
One thing that helped the Giants was the fact that the usually superb Lee was unusually wild. He wasn’t Jonathan Sanchez wild. But he walked a batter and so I guess he was wild for Cliff Lee. For one, he could not locate his curveball. Of the 104 pitches he threw, 11 were curves. That’s actually a couple more than he averages per start. That problem was, only 3 of 11 went for strikes. One was an excellent hammer that dispatched Burrell swinging in the second inning, but otherwise he was unable to locate the pitch. He also used the changeup sparingly– he only 5 threw of which 3 went for strikes – so perhaps he didn’t have a feel for it tonight. He threw his cutter more often than usual (30% of the time). That’s because it was about the only pitch he was able to consistently locate but the Giants hitters appeared ready for it, especially when it wasn’t located with the surgeon precision the world has become accustomed to after hearing McCarver and Buck drool over him for 4+ innings.
One thing that helped the Giants was the fact that the usually superb Lee was unusually wild. He wasn’t Jonathan Sanchez wild. But he walked a batter and so I guess he was wild for Cliff Lee. For one, he could not locate his curveball. Of the 104 pitches he threw, 11 were curves. That’s actually a couple more than he averages per start. That problem was, only 3 of 11 went for strikes. One was an excellent hammer that dispatched Burrell swinging in the second inning, but otherwise he was unable to locate the pitch. He also used the changeup sparingly– he only 5 threw of which 3 went for strikes – so perhaps he didn’t have a feel for it tonight. He threw his cutter more often than usual (30% of the time). That’s because it was about the only pitch he was able to consistently locate but the Giants hitters appeared ready for it, especially when it wasn’t located with the surgeon precision the world has become accustomed to after hearing McCarver and Buck drool over him for 4+ innings.
He threw 80% strikes in the fourth but labored while throwing 32 pitches and giving up two runs (1 earned as Michael Young did the Giants a huge favor by committing an error to start the inning). And that probably did a lot to undo him as he threw 29 more in the fifth while getting two-out-hit to death before ultimately being yanked for Darren O’Day – who is typically excellent against right handed hitters – who promptly gave up a mammoth three-run dinger to Juan Oooo-Ribe. When the ball landed in the bleachers, the crowd had reached a fever pitch that only 55 years of disappointment and a season of torture could create, and the Giants had opened up a six run advantage they would never relent. Lee’s strike percentage by inning was uncharacteristically low (62, 67, 66, 80, and 62). He got behind hitters more often than he usually does, and when he needed to make pitches he didn’t. He missed up and in with his fastball a few times when he was trying to plant it on the insider corner. And when he needed to come into the zone as he fell behind, he center-punched the zone a few times too many and the Giants punished him for it. And he left his curve up and away versus right handed hitters more than a couple of times, because as I said, he didn’t have a feel for the pitch, a pitch he often uses to freeze hitters for strike three.
Freddy Sanchez had an excellent evening. In his first at bat he swung at a perfectly placed down and away fastball, shattered his bat, and hustled into second with a double as it dumped just inside the foul line down the right field line. I guess that was a good sign for how the rest of his night would go. In the third, he doubled in a run down the left field line on a cutter that was down in the zone but caught too much of the middle of the plate. And in the fifth after the Giants did a wonderful job of wearing down Lee in the previous inning, Sanchez doubled in another – his third double, making him the first player in history to double in his first three World Series AB’s – this time on a fastball that Lee was trying to get in on Sanchez but got way too much plate and was up in the zone. Sanchez smoked it into the left-center gap for a clean, warning track two bagger. Freddy lined out hard to right field in his next AB against Alexi Ogando but he’d hit it on the screws again. For good measure, he finally scorched a slider that caught too much plate in his final at bat for another run scoring hit, this time a single with an advance on the error by Vladimir Guerrero, which brings us to our next topic.
The Rangers – Ron Washington, more specifically – went with Bad Vlad in right field. It turned out to be a really bad idea as he committed two errors and looked much like a wounded animal in the spacious AT&T outfield throughout the night. He let a “single” drop off the bat of Edgar Renteria – I say "single" with hesitance because an adept right fielder might have been able to actually snag the liner on a fly; this is something I saw more than once down the stretch with Jose Guillen manning right field – and to make matters worse, he let it fly right by him as he couldn’t reach down to retrieve it and Rent ended up on three for the other of his two errors. To say he didn’t look comfortable would be to say that that Donald Trump’s hair is comb-overish or that Keith Law is sometimes condescending. Something tells me Vlad won’t be in the lineup come Thursday.
The Giants managed to start the series off wonderfully despite the rocky start in the first two innings. Lincecum gave up 1 in the first and 1 in the second, though he wasn’t hit especially hard. He benefited from a nice double play by Juan Uribe to end the threat in the first with the bases juiced – that after he’d done something extremely boneheaded. He retrieved a weak groundball and had the runner between home and third dead to rights, but instead ran him back to the bag as if another Ranger would be there waiting and one would be tagged out. It was a clear case of Tim forgetting the situation. In the second, he gave a double to Lee – yes, the pitcher – on a butcher boy play before giving up a sacrifice fly to Elvis Andrus. The person that scored was the ever-speedy Bengie Molina – he received a nice and classy ovation from Giants fans during introductions – but his cause was helped on what could have been a close play if not for the truly atrocious throw from Torres, though Torres rewarded his manager for letting him start despite the relative ineffectiveness from his weak right side with a big double.
Lincecum left the game with two outs in the sixth having given up 8 hits, 4 runs and 2 walks while only striking out a very uncharacteristic and few 3. He didn’t look great early on but pitched well enough to win on this night. He did appear to be heading into a groove but it seems likely, though as grateful as he was for the 8 runs of support, that the two long offensive innings for the Giants in both the fourth and fifth extinguished what momentum he had. Perhaps having only thrown 93 pitches will be in his favor when he takes the mound again, should he need to of course.
The Rangers would never again be within four runs of the Giants. Both pens didn’t pitch particularly well but the Giants added on three more in the bottom of the eighth so it didn’t much matter. Wilson came in to get the final two outs in the ninth when neither Ramirez – who I am hoping Bochy sees for what he is by now – nor Affledt could close the door. Bochy wasn’t taking any risks and frankly I can’t blame him.
Tomorrow is Game 2 and it starts at the same time, i.e. 4:57. Matt Cain will oppose C.J. Wilson who I wrote a scouting report for yesterday. The Giants shouldn’t expect to get too much help from the Rangers tomorrow as far as errors – or errahs if you’re Dick Stockton – and should look to make their own breaks. Hopefully some other bats will join the fun and Freddy will stay hot as well as Huff who is really starting to swing the bat better. Furthermore, the Giants made a few snazzy plays tonight but also made a couple of mistakes – they’ll need to continue to do the former while limiting the latter. The Giants are just three wins from endearing themselves to The City forever, but they better play one game at a time. It all starts with pitching. Matt Cain, you’re up.
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